Royals Review

Royals Confidence Index - December

2008-12-03T18:44:10Z

It is time to take the fanbase’s temperature again. The last Royals Confidence Index (RCI) in September was a season low 4.64. Below is a visual representation of the confidence fans had in the Royals over the course of the season.

That’s a fairly smooth ski slope. If I had done this at the end of September, there might have been a little ski jump uptick at the end, but that is neither here nor there. Now we must see how we fans feel about the 2009 Royals. Below I have the standard questions (2009 version) as well as some special one-time-only questions. As with the general election, I don’t care how you vote; just vote!

Here's the deal. For each of these questions, give me a number from 1-10. 1 means you feel very bad/unhappy/negative about the item in question right now. 10 means you feel extremely good/happy/positive about it. (If you want to use decimals like 6.5, feel free).

1. How do you feel about the 2009 Royals team overall?

2. How do you feel about the 2009 Royals pitching?

3. How do you feel about the 2009 Royals hitting?

4. How do you feel about the 2009 Royals defense?

5. How do you feel about Dayton Moore?

6. How do you feel about Trey Hillman?

7. How do you feel about the Royals minor league system?

8. How do you feel about the Royals future (2010 and beyond)?

Bonus questions (these have no bearing on the RCI):

A. Considering everything, how would you rate the Jacobs-Nunez trade on a 1-10 scale?

B. Considering everything, how would you rate the Crisp-Ramirez trade on a 1-10 scale?

C. Do you think the following players will be traded by July 31, 2009? (For each name, give a Yes or No)

1. Mark Teahen

2. David DeJesus

3. Billy Butler

4. Zack Greinke

5. Other (please name any other players who you think will be traded)

D. How many games will the following players play for the Royals in 2009?

1. Mark Grudzielanek

2. Ross Gload

3. Ryan Shealy

4. Kila Ka’aihue

E. Do you think the Royals will make any trades during the winter meetings next week? (Yes or No)

F. Do you think the Royals will acquire any player in the Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 11? (Yes or No)

G. What is your best estimate of how many games the Royals will win in 2009?

Johnny Giavotella

2008-12-03T07:06:10Z

Johnny Giavotella

Discuss this awesome prospect.

Tell me how crazy I am for rating him #6. (click the link above)

Yes I am self promoting.

Justin Huber and Dick Kaegel Are Still Talking

2008-12-03T06:11:06Z

What? You mean you aren't running a "Justin Huber" search on Google News every few days?

Well, while most Americans were stuffing their faces and enduring awkward family time amidst terribly "original" arguments against the BCS ("it should be settled on the field!") MLB.com was quietly promoting the World Baseball Classic. Apparently, they're going to do it again, even though national innocence destroyer Roger Clemens isn't going to be involved this time. Our man Dick Kaegel penned the Aussie preview piece and called upon JLH to provide the quotes and a bit of insight.

Justin Huber, an Aussie first baseman then with the Kansas City Royals, thought back to that final game against the Dominicans.

"You've got Miguel Tejada throwing across the infield to Albert Pujols; Alfonso Soriano playing second base. All these superstars coming onto the field at the same time was just awesome," Huber said. "I mean, Jose Reyes was on their bench. He wasn't in the game. And you look on our bench and we've got Johnny A-Ball or Johnny Never-Played-Pro-Ball-Before. And they've got Jose Reyes."

Australia only lost 6-4 to the formidable D.R., something of a minor miracle since they somehow lost to Italy 10-0. Italy. That's like losing to Canada in a comedy competition or losing to Scotland in a hot women contest. Worse still, the game was ended via the Mercy Rule.

Huber thinks that the strength of the Kangeroos (I just came up with that) will be their hurlers, pointing to noted insane man Grant Balfour (he needs to challenge John Rocker to something like an egg race) and Ryan Rowland-Smith, who's hyphenated last name horrified red blooded Americans last season. The mere presence of his first last name threatened the legitimacy and sanctity of many last names throughout this once great land.

If anything, the Aussies seem to be deep in pitching.

"That's typically how things have gone," Huber said. "We've been signing more pitchers out of Australia than position players, so we do have a bit of a void to fill in the hitting department."

I know just the guy to provide the power in the middle of that 'Roo lineup.

Lastly, Huber used this opportunity to reflect upon the state of Australian baseball and his nation's sporting mentality.

In Huber's view, Australia's interest in baseball may have flagged recently. There's a new rival in what's called "Twenty20 cricket," a souped-up version of cricket that is played in about 2 1/2 hours instead of days. He's hoping Major League Baseball will support the reformation of an Aussie national league. A good showing in the Classic would help.

"Are we ever going to rival the Dominican Republic? No, probably not," Huber said. "But can we get a lot better than we are? Yes, absolutely. Can we produce more Major Leaguers? Absolutely.

"Australia is sort of the land of the underdog. There's a real underdog mentality here. People really rally around the underachiever. Australia baseball punches above its weight. For its population and the popularity of the sport here, we really hold our end up in a surprisingly good way. I'm excited about the way things are going to go from here."

Huber played in all three of Australia's games in '06, posting a .125/.300/.125 line. Huber led the team in both walks (2) and strikeouts (6) and was one of only six 'Roos to record a hit.

I have no doubt that Huber will hit fantastically well in the first round of the WBC, which includes games against Mexico, Cuba and South Africa in Mexico City, leading Australia to a stunning upset or two along the way. The game against South Africa is in the bag, Dave Mathews and F.W. de Klerk have massive platoon splits that can be exploited.

And remember, this is in Mexico City.

Huber + altitude? Unstoppable baby.

Projecting the Royals' 2009 Pitching With Bill James (Seriously, It's Just a Title)

2008-12-01T18:27:27Z

Have you seen one of these guys?

Q: How can I tell the difference betweeen 'Spreadsheet Baseball' and 'Fun with Google Spreadsheets'?

A: The first is posted (usually as a "Story") by one of the site moderators. The second is posted either as a FanPost or FanShot by some creep who lives on the wrong side of the 49th parallel. The first is well-written and clear. The second attempts to be colloquial, but the maddening typos and run-on sentences make it difficult, if not impossible to read. The first, when dealing with player projections for the upcoming baseball season, utilizes Baseball Prospectus' rightly revered PECOTA projection program. The second uses whatever free projections happen to be lying around the internet -- and who knows where they've been. The first comments on said projections briefly and with informed insight. The second complicates things with (most likely poorly applied) mathematical formula and combinations of metrics and offers inane commentary cloaked in an Emperor's wardrobe of objectivity.

Most importantly in the current context, the first is rare and thus valuble, like gold. The second comes unbidden, unwanted, but yet unstoppable, like a sinus infection. Which one are you more likely to receive this winter?

In other words, only NHZ can save you now...

Here (finally) is the pitching companion to my earlier piece discussing the Bill James Projections and the 2009 Royals offense. I held off because I knew that this probably wouldn't be as good, and also I was a bit uneasy with how to convert ERA/FIP, etc. into wins/runs above replacement. Thanks to Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score fame, I now have some simple formulae for doing so, and so away we go...

[Yeah, it was a long, rambling introduction. At least I use the "intro paragraph" function so that, just in case the post makes the front page, it doesn't push half-a-week's worth of posts off.]

As with the piece on James' hitter projections, I want to remind everyone that I am not endorsing or criticizing the James projections either as a whole or in part. I simply thought I'd post a bit about them and try to translate them into terms that make it easier to see whether projections have the Royals getting better or worse, overall. The hitting projections, as I surmised, have the Royals offense improving by 5-6 wins over 2008 in 2009 (although I did note that the James offensive projections are notoriously optimistic). So I'm going to translate the James projections into runs above replacement so that we can get a better sense of what some people are projecting the Royals pitching to do next year beyond simply "hey, it looks like that guys ERA might suck next year" and stuff like that.

Boring Methodology Stuff

(If you find this stuff intolerable, skip down to "Starter Projections")

There are plenty of places to read about replacement level and the debates about whether it is useful and what it should be on the internet, so I won't get into it here. I will simple say that the most basic and intuitive way to think about a player's value above (or below!) replacement level, whether in retrospect or prospect, and whatever stat you are using, is as follows:

rate above replacement times playing time = value above replacement level.

Pretty obvious, no? Then for projections, the idea is

projected rate above replacement times projected playing time = value above replacement

Of course, while the formula is simple, the assumed knowledge is difficult: What is the projection? How much playing time will the player get? What is replacement level?

Well, the first question is easy for the purposes of this post: we're just going to take the James projections and see what they say. They also project playing time, so that's taken care of (although that's even iffier than the ERA/FIP projections). I will also prorate the suggested rate over replacement over an equal number of innings for all starters and relievers for better comparison, and to allow people to do their own simple calculations based on personal playing time estimates.

So... what is the replacement level for pitchers? Since their playing time works out different than hitters, we can't just prorate say, 2.25 wins (about 23 runs) below average over a year with respect to plate appearances. Rather, we'll use a percentage of rate stat (ERA, FIP, tRA, etc.) as replacement level. I will follow the suggestion that for starters, replacement level is 128% of league average. For relievers, replacement level is 107% of league average. That's a partial explanation for using the following formulae for determining a pitchers runs above replacement with ERA as the preferred rate stat:

Starters: ((lgavgERA*1.28)-playerERA)*(IP/9.0)

Relievers: ((lgavgERA*1.07)-playerERA)*(IP/9.0)

These are pretty simple formulas. There are more complex ones based on pythagorean winning percentage and all that, but frankly, this was quicker and more easily understood.

One more thing before I (finally) get to the projections. Tables are hard to fit into margins for fanposts without really screwing things up. For the full tables with all sorts of boring stuff, check out the detailed Google Spreadsheet I made for this. Here, I've only filled in just what I could.

Here are the some explanations for the headings that appear in this post:

ERA, IP, HR, BB, SO, and FIP are all taken from the Bill James projections posted at Fangraphs.

ERArar is ERA-based runs above replacement, as detailed above. For starters, the formula is ((lgavgERA*1.28)-playerERA)*(IP/9.0), for relievers, it is ((lgavgERA*1.07)-playerERA)*(IP/9.0)

FIPrar is FIP-based runs above replacement. Since (in theory) ERA is usually supposed to regress to FIP since FIP is a better representation of "luck-free" peformance, I've scaled it against league ERA replacement level. If that's messed up, shoot me. For starters, the formula is ((lgavgERA*1.28)-playerFIP)*(IP/9.0), for relievers, it is ((lgavgERA*1.07)-playerFIP)*(IP/9.0).

ERArar+/- and FIPrar+/- measure how much the James projects have the player improving in runs from 2008 to the projected 2009 .

FIPrar200 and FIPrar70 prorate each pitcher's FIP-performance over "full-time" performance (200 innings for a starter, 70 for a reliever) for comparison purposes.

So, without any further ado, here are the projections. And please, once again, keep in mind, that I am not endorsing them one way or the other. They are not mine. Don't shoot the messenger (oh, it's not that bad).

Starter Projections

[Detailed Google Spreadsheet]

Player	ERA	IP	HR	BB	SO	FIP	ERArar	ERArar+/-	FIPrar	FIPrar+/-	FIPrar200
Z.Greinke	3.98	194	23	52	156	4.05	32.85	-14.55	31.34	-14.04	32.31
G.Meche	4.1	210	24	77	160	4.32	32.76	-4.61	27.63	-18.38	26.31
K.Davies	4.79	139	18	66	100	4.93	11.03	-8.07	8.87	-8.22	12.76
B.Bannister	4.26	173	22	52	107	4.62	23.91	27.54	16.99	5.84	19.64
L.Hochevar	4.95	146	20	52	100	4.84	8.99	7.97	10.77	-5.72	14.76
B.Duckworth	5.07	76	9	32	53	4.77	3.66	-0.90	6.20	1.63	16.31
R.Tejeda	4.86	60	7	35	49	4.98	4.29	-3.78	3.49	-4.68	11.64

Comments:

I'm sure Zack Greinke's projection will get some hackles up. While I think he'll pitch better than that, do keep in mind that the computer program itself doesn't "know" why Zack wasn't in the majors most of 2006, or how to understand his time in the bullpen in 2007. It just sees innings pitched and performance (or lack thereof). Given his outstanding performance in 2008 (which, from a computer's perspective, seems to be mostly unforeseeable in the three years previous), a prediction of regression seems more reasonable. I don't think he'll regress that much. Actually, I don't know what he'll do. He's very young, so could still improve. On the other hand, he was so good last year he could regress a bit and still be a stud. Meche is also projected to regress, although a lot less than Zack in ERA and more in FIP. Not sure what that means... maybe that the defense needs to get its act together? Personally, I'm more concerned about GIl's workload over the last two years. I'm not sure, but I think he's thrown about 1,000,006 pitches since he got to Kansas City. I just hope Ol' Gil doesn't need a new rotator cuff anytime soon. Excellent pitchers, both of them. I don't think these projections quite do them justice.

While the projections don't see Kyle Davies as the solid #3 his year-end stats made him out to be, there seems to be definite #4 potential there. Hey, it would be nice if he was better than that, but given what the Royals gave up for him, his youth, and his salary, #4 isn't too bad if he can do it.

Banny's projection, especially the ERA projection, looks very encouraging -- like he's a #3. I guess I think Banny's 2008 shows why FIP-type stats are so telling no matter how smart people think you are or how much love Joe Posnanski throws your way. I'll wait and see what the other projections systems say. If he can be a #4, again, he got picked up for Burgos...

Luke Hochevar might turn out to be the key to the starting staff next year. While the projected recovery by Bannister, if it comes to pass, is nice, the truth is the Royals seem to have a rotation with Greinke, Meche, and a bunch number 4s, at least looking at these numbers. That's not going to be good enough -- especially on the off chance that Jacobs' OBP doesn't skyrocket to .320 like he is predicting. Hochevar is still developing, so we'll have to see what happens and what other systems say.

Ducky is the Man. I included Robinson Tejeda on both tables because the projection seems to have him doing a little of both, without separating his performances (which makes his projection as a reliever look really bad.)

Reliever Projections

[Detailed Google Spreadsheet]

Player	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	FIP	ERArar	ERArar+/-	FIPrar	FIPrar+/-	FIPrar70
J Soria	2.16	61	45	4	17	63	2.97	16.54	-6.31	11.05	0.50	12.69
R. Mahay	4.07	60	57	6	29	51	4.3	3.54	-4.91	2.01	-1.24	2.34
R. Tejada	4.86	60	59	7	35	49	4.98	-1.73	-3.62	-2.53	-5.80	-2.95
Y. Yabuta	4.17	36	36	5	14	29	4.56	1.72	2.20	0.16	2.50	0.32
J. Peralta	4.09	53	54	8	14	41	4.52	3.01	10.64	0.48	9.96	0.63
L.Nunez	4.01	58	58	7	19	41	4.44	3.81	-5.20	1.04	-3.75	1.25
R.Ramirez	3.74	67	62	6	28	62	3.81	6.41	-9.61	5.89	-8.55	6.15

[NB: I have not included leverage index in figuring out what the relievers are worth here. That is very important because, obviously, Joakim Soria should not be (nor do I think the projection systems intend him to be) projected to be about as valuable as Mike Jacobs in a good year. However, I'm not satisfied with my knowledge of how to incorporate leverage index for relievers in general, especially in projections. Leverage says less about the relievers specific pitching abillity than the value of the innings and situations in which he has pitched. Clearly, the reliever has little or not control over this. I could, of course, just calculate it for the Proven Closer(TM), since we have a pretty good idea of how he will be used, but then that just exacerbates the mythical difference between the "ability" of the closer and the other relievers. If I do this for other projection systems, I might include leverage then. Just letting people know what is up.]

Comments:

This seems like a good time to remind everyone that this is just my analysis and rough "translation" into run values of the Bill James projections, not my own personal projections or endorsement of said projections. Yeah... they didn't even bother to project Gobble, Pumpkinhead, or Rosa (how can they neglect ears like that?). And who knows what roles (if any) those guys will play on the Royals next year. In general, keep in mind that as unpredictable as pitchers in general are to project, relievers, due to their varying usage patterns (and the small sample size relative to "true talent" inherent in said usage) are doubly difficult to project.

Soria is so good it isn't even all that interesting to discuss him at length. His ERA was probably a bit luck-derived this year, but we all know how "good" ERA is as a stand-alone measure of pitching ability. The James' projections recognize this by showing an improvement in his FIP. No worries here. Good thing the rotation is totally fine...

As for the rest of the bullpen... well, I would have included Nunez and RamRodRam
for the sake of once of showing the hilarious MLB mugshot of Ramon Ramirez's
perfectly round head, or, as Royals Review once put it, "he looks like a little kid who is supposed to be in bed peeking around the corner." It really hurts to see that the official MLB mugshot already has him as a digitized Rex Sock. Anyone got the Royals version? Seriously, there isn't much to say, other than the projections show what most of us (well, at least me) thought -- while Ramirez probably pitched a bit or a lot over his hear this year, he's still considerably better than anyone the Royals have left in the 'pen other than the guy who should be in the rotation. Mahay's great first half seems to have made people forget how badly he bombed in the second half. He projects as above replacement level here, but only slightly better than Nunez at best. Maybe adequate as a setup guy, but he's not in Ramirez's class anymore, according to the projections. The wildcards are: (a) Tejeda, given that his projection waffles between him starting and relieving (and who some think might have the stuff to be a very good reliever); (b) Rosa, who isn't projected at all (although I'll leave it to you prospect hounds out there to debate whether he should/can start or not); and (c) Dayton Moore's ability to find another Ramirez on the cheap, especially without another Greinke waiting around like in 2007 to bolster his bullpen-building reputation. Whatever one thinks of the projections, I think it's safe to say that, at the moment, the 2009 bullpen as a whole looks far inferior to the 2008 edition.

Concluding Thoughts

Given the difficulties in projecting pitching (especially relievers, and especially since the projections were done before Nunez and Ramirez were traded away), I'm a bit leery over setting out what they predict as far as overall improvement or decline for the Royals pitchering staff. Remember that 10.5 runs = one win. Excluding Tejeda from starting, by ERA the James projections have the starters improving by about 7.4 runs, or about 0.7 wins. By FIP, however, they are projected to decline by about 39 runs, or 3.7 wins.

The relievers get more complicated because I didn't use leverage, nor do I have projections for the bodies brought in to replace Nunez and Tejada. But I will give my my extremely rough (leverage-free) estimate of what the James projections say. By unleveraged ERArar, the current Royals bullpen is projected to be about 27 runs worse than last season's, or 2.6 wins. By unleveraged FIPrar, the bullpen is projected to be about 13.3 runs, or about 1.3 wins worse.

Recall that my back-of-the-envelope calculations had the always-hitter-positive James projections seeing the Royals offense improving by about 5.5 wins. Well, we haven't taken defense into account at all, which could improve by a bit with Crisp moving into center and DDJ into left, or a lot if the Royals figure out that Teahen is a superior player (salaries aside) to Guillen with defense included. Anyway, with all the qualifications re: leverage, defense, and as-of-yet unacquired or unprojected relievers noted, using ERArar one might say that the James projections see the Royals as improving by 5.5 + 0.7 - 2.6 = 3.6 wins. Using FIPrar, we get 5.5 - 3.7 - 1.3 = 0.5 wins. Remember to take this with a shaker full of salt -- and that these aren't my predictions.

I hope you've found these posts at least somewhat interesting. It was a nice chance for me to pretend to do real analysis while simply adding up numbers and cracking my usual assortment of dumb jokes. One last thing -- while PECOTA is NHZ's territory, would people be interested in me doing this when other projections systems (like CHONE and ZiPS) come out? I don't mind wasting my own time writing stuff like this, but only if other people don't mind wasting theirs reading it.

Royals Radio Affiliate Profile: Shenandoah, Iowa [KMA 960 AM]

2008-12-01T03:50:20Z

Shenandoah Iowa: KMA-AM 960

Miles from Kansas City: 138 miles
Population: 5,546

The "seed and nursery center of the world" Shenandoah is one of six radio affiliates in Iowa, a state the Royals are only barely remaining viable in. Shenandoah is the rare small city that straddles two counties, in this case Fremont and Page counties, although the vast majority of the city lies in the latter. Both counties have endured substantial population loss during the last century, and are much smaller today than they were in 1900, a remarkable fact considering how much larger the overall population of the country is today. After fifty years of zero growth, around after 1950, true decay set in in southwest Iowa.

	Page County	Fremont County
1900	24,187	18,546
1920	24,137	15,447
1950	23,921	12,323
1970	18,507	9,282
2000	16,976	8,010

Meanwhile, the nation has moved on. In 1900 the population of the U.S. was roughly 76 million, today its nearly four times larger, at 305 million. Despite those sobering statistics, according to the Chamber of Commerce, Shenandoah is a wonderful place to be:

Welcome to Shenandoah, Iowa, the Garden City, a place to shop for a day, visit for a week or live the rest of your life! Shenandoah is a progressive, bustling community full of gardens, entrepreneurs, industry, opportunity, and friendly people. Its unique shops and restaurants have made it the retail hub of southwest Iowa. Shenandoah's lifestyle and appearance have sprouted from a tradition and heritage of garden industries. It's a safe place to raise a family with a top notch school system and is filled with recreation, attractions, and activities for all ages. Its low cost of living, extensive healthcare, and relaxed lifestyle also make it a great place to retire.

Written during Shenandoah’s glory days, W.L. Kershaw’s 1909 book, The History of Page County notes that, "Shenandoah was originally called Fair Oaks, though for what reason cannot be imagined, as no oak trees or any other kind were found on the site of the town" (381). On August 6, 1870 however Fair Oaks was christened Shenandoah, supposedly because of the similarities between the local scenery and the Shenandoah valley in Virginia, which makes little sense either. The town’s proximity to the Chicago, Quincy & Burlington Railroad was what turned it into a real community, drawing in residents from the rest of the county. At the time of Kershaw’s writing, the founding fathers of Shenandoah were still alive, and their accounts testify to the city’s essential birth as a railroad boomtown, not that they would have chosen to describe it in exactly that way. As one account collected by Kershaw begins, "the child is born. Its name is Shenandoah. The story of this indigenous offspring of the prairie forms an era in the future history and romance of one of the loveliest villages of the west" (383). Interestingly, Kershaw opened his history of Page County with this bombshell,

"it is conceded by historians who have given the subject deep thought and careful research that this country was inhabited by a race of beings distinct from the red man. But that is beyond the province of this work. The men and women who opened this state to civilization had only the red man to dispute their coming and obstruct their progress… (6)

Fair enough.

Around downtown Shenandoah lies the Shenandoah Fame Walk, which includes some of Shenandoah’s most famous names, including Don & Phil Everly, aka "The Everly Brothers". Despite a sometimes rocky fraternal relationship, the Everly Brothers charted over twenty six Top 40 singles during their career, including the 1960 number one hit, Cathy’s Clown. Notably, the Everlys also sang backup on Paul Simon’s Graceland album, including on the title track. The Beehive, the E.B. fanclub, is online. A letter to fans from November 2005 reveals a complicated set of disputes, boycotts and confusion.

Western Iowa: Like a window in your heart.

Shenandoah is the proud home of the Mustangs and Fillies, of Shenandoah High School. Since this is Iowa, there’s a mysterious devotion to wrestling, a nearly incomprensible sport to ninety percent of the U.S. population. One of my few good memories from my years at the UI, I believe, were the times I would ironically try to listen to wrestling on the radio (most, if not all, Hawkeye matches had radio coverage) and try to understand even one bit of what was going on. The Shenandoah H.S. webpage is no exception, providing a quite extensive account of the ’07-’08 campaign. Royals Review extends its congratulations to Wes Swygman, Caleb Owens, Cord Willers (yep) and Jake Schubert, the Wrestlers of the Week for Week #8.

So is Shenandoah a Hawkeye or Cyclone town? Well, other than their insane devotion to the Royals, which goes without saying, 960 AM (also the Royals affiliate) was listed as a Cyclone affiliate on a random 2006 webpage I discovered, which makes sense given the vague east/west divide that exists in Iowa. Currently, neither Iowa nor Iowa State has any former Mustangs on their football or basketball rosters. Heck, Iowa only has two native sons on the basketball team, and one of them is the coach’s son, who really grew up in Indiana.

Iowa Western Community College, with an enrollment of over 5,000 and branch campuses in Shenandoah and Clarinda, is the area’s primary source for higher education. At the main campus in Council Bluffs (the Iowa side of the Omaha metro) is the main campus, including the school’s athletic teams, The Reivers. What is a reiver, you ask? A reiver is a river pirate.

The IWCC Reiver Sprit Squad listens to the Royals constantly on 960 AM when near Shenandoah, which they are with great regularity.

Has Shenandoah ever produced a Major League baseball player? With towns this size, its never a sure thing, despite Iowa’s former status as a relatively populous, nearly entirely white, state during the pre-integration era of baseball. The question comes down to the contested birthplace of Max Marshall (1913-1983) an outfielder who played three seasons with the Reds during the depths of the Second World War. According to the Baseball Cube, Marshall was born in Shenandoah, while Baseball-Reference lists Marshall as being born in Randolph, a smaller town eighteen miles away. There isn’t a clear consensus here and a run through various internet sites (most of whom are getting their information from one another obviously) shows both Randolph and Shenandoah as listed birthplaces. A story in the Des Moines Register about Iowa ballplayers lists Marshall as a Shenandoah boy, and lists an actual person as the source of this information, so we’ll go with that. Marshall was a just slightly below average hitter (career OPS+ 84) who debuted for the Reds as a 28 year old in 1942. His best season was his final one, a 1944 campaign that saw him hit .245/.308/.371. For people who think baseball was always a speed game and that steroids destroyed our national innocence by killing little ball, we note that in 1943 Marshall stole eight bases, which was good for 10th best in the National League. Max Marshall played the game the right way and died in Salem, Oregon in 1983.

Interestingly while on the subject of baseball, during the boom days, Shenandoah had a few minor league teams. In 1903 Shenandoah had an affiliate in the Southwest Iowa League, a class D outfit. Shenandoah’s squad finished 22-14, middle of the pack in the six team league, but disbanded mid-season. Eight years later, a Shenandoah club spent two seasons in the so-called Mink League so named because it was based in Missouri-Nebraska-Iowa-Kansas. The Shenandoah Pin-Rollers competed in the Mink League in 1910 and 1911, finishing third and fourth, respectively, in the six-team league. Fellow future Royals Radio Affiliate Nebraska City was also a member of the league.

The Royals affiliate in Shenandoah, KMA 960 AM is one of the hoary bearded elders of the Royals Radio Network and a fixture in southwestern Iowa since 1925. The station was long linked to Earl May’s various seed ventures in the region and was mentioned in the film version of The Bridges of Madison County. On good nights, KMA can be heard from Topeka, Kansas to Sioux City, Iowa and points in between. Thanks to KMA, despite the ravages of population loss in the region, Shenandoah remains a key affiliate.

May her next hundred years be better than the last.

------

Previous Affiliate Profiles:

York, Nebraska
Conway, Arkansas
Waynesville, Missouri
Topeka, Kansas
Storm Lake, Iowa
Vinita, Oklahoma
California, Missouri
Garden City, Kansas
Belle Fourche, South Dakota
Ulysses, Kansas
Trenton, Missouri
Fairbury, Nebraska
Nebraska City, Nebraska
Winfield, Kansas
Mount Pleasant, Iowa
Butler, Missouri
Enid, Oklahoma
Tulsa, Oklahoma
Bolivar, Missouri
Holdrege, Nebraska

Royals 2008 Secondary Averages and Power/Speed Numbers

2008-11-28T21:44:59Z

Royals 2008 Secondary Averages and Power/Speed Numbers

While trying to be a good baseball stat nerd and teach myself MySQL, I have dug back into the archives for a couple of older stats created by Bill James: power/speed number and secondary average (SecA). While both stats have been largely superseded by other stats, and both face the problem [easily fixed, I believe, although I have not done so here]) of not including times caught stealing, they are both interesting ways (especially SecA, at the time) of expressing important dimensions of player skill not always reflected in more traditional counting and rate stats.

The link above is to yet another Google Spreadsheet in which I've given the 2008 results for both SecA and power/speed number for the 2008 Royals for players with more than 75 ABs. The results probably aren't surprising, but interesting nonetheless.

Secondary Average is supposed to reflect in a rate stat everything a player does besides batting average. The formula is (TB-H+BB+SB)/AB. Albert Pujols had a .5076 SecA this season. The Royals' all-time best single-season secondary average is .5096, by Bob Hamelin in 1994.

Power/Speed Number is a combination rate/counting stat that is supposed to get at that "something" expressed in calling a player a "20-20" or "40-40" player. The formula is (2*HR*SB)/(HR+SB). As you can see, then, if a player has no home runs or no stolen bases, that player will automatically have a 0 for a P/S number. Grady Sizemore led that majors in 2008, with a power/speed number of 35.32. Hanley Ramirez was close behind with 33.97.

It's not all a young man's game, though. Carlos Beltran comes in #4 (right behind Matt Holliday) with 25.96. It will come as no surprise to most of you that Beltran has three of the top four Royals Power-Speed seasons, with 31.8 in 2003, 31.7 in 2002, and 27.1 in 2001. Bo Jackson has number 3 with 28.7 in 1989, and also has #6 with 25.96 in 1988. The under-appreciated Amos Otis is #5 with 26.1 in 1978.

What Do Royals Fans Have to Be Thankful For?

2008-11-25T23:31:40Z

What do Royals fans have to be thankful for? Quite a lot, actually. I'm not generally a voice of boosterism, but when I started thinking about it, there were a lot of positives.

Zack Greinke: We -- and I was among the most guilty of this -- should stop worrying about whether or not Greinke will ever "break out" and become an Ace, whatever that means. He's an Ace now. According to BP's handy VORP stat, Greinke was the 22nd most valuable pitcher in baseball last year, and the tenth best in the American League. Moreover, Greinke's track record and profile suggest he's not merely a one-year VORP wonder (I'm looking at you Scott Baker) either. Even before we consider the off-the-field backstory, two or three years ago we still couldn't be sure this would happen, but it did. Good things can happen to the Royals. With his stuff, Greinke's one of the funnest pitchers to watch in the game and we know that somewhere inside there's one of baseball's more unique perspectives, a breath of fresh air in a pretty boring sport, athlete-wise. I like knowing that Greinke isn't just another good ole boy from the South who knows he's a badass and has pointless facial hair and would punch a wall if he got shown up by his manager and hunts in the offseason, etc. etc. Yea, he might not be a Royal forever, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't enjoy him while he's here.

Joakim Soria: Forget the stellar numbers for a moment and just think about how you feel when he takes the ball in the ninth. Not only are you 100% sure he's going to get the save, you really expect at least one strikeout and a handful of pitches that look absolutely sick. And that guy plays for the Royals! I loved Joe Nelson, but just think how far the Royals have come. We have a guy on our team with a cool nickname who creates an electric atmosphere when he runs onto the grass. Yes, he should be starting, but having one of the best two or three short-relievers on your team doesn't suck. He's still young, and he's going to a Royal for a long time. Savor it. This isn't normal.

Gil Meche: We're two years into his infamous five year, $fifty five million dollar contract and everyone's a happy camper. After a rough start last season (an 8.00 ERA after five starts) Meche rebounded to match his 2007 levels. An increasingly affordable rotation anchor, Meche continues, along with Soria, to define everything that's gone right with the Dayton Moore regime. Meche is already the 73rd Greatest Royal of All-Time and could end his contract as one of the franchise's all-time greats. Yes, he's sometimes maddening to watch and seemingly has never had a 1-2-3 inning, but he's been reliable and one of the most effective starters in the AL for two seasons (14th in the AL in VORP in '07, 15th in '08). And can you imagine if it had gone badly like most of us thought it would? Unspeakable annoyance and horribleness. But we've avoided that. Now about that Jose Guillen...

Mike Aviles in 2008 Happened: The Royals kept playing Tony Pena Jr, who kept not hitting. Like, not hitting at an historical level. Nevertheless, the Hillman/Moore regime seemed donkey stubborn about ex-Brave TPJ, as did a few notable members of the local media. We bitched, we moaned and eventually, in a completely sane, utterly necessary move, dude actually lost playing time. It was like the world actually made sense. Not only that, but his replacement, Mike Aviles, the quintessential sabermetric hero with no scouting love, showed up and had the week of his life to begin his career. Then it was the month of his life. Then it was the two months of his life. Then it was the three months of his life. Really against their will, the Royals replaced the worst player on the roster with a guy who probably should have won the Rookie of the Year. Again, this really happened and it happened to our team. Cool.

Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon: The odds are that two of these guys will reach an All-Star level, perhaps higher, before its all said and done. It hasn't happened yet, but at least its possible. Again, it wasn't always like this.

The Uniform: From pants to cap, the Royals have one of the simplest yet most appealing uniforms in the game. There's a word for that combination: elegance. Blue and white, with maybe a touch of gold. Simple. Pretty. I'm even willing to look past the obvious Dodgers-ripoff in the design, given that the franchise has remained loyal to it through all these years, save a few utterly unavoidable dalliances with black as a third color and the sleeveless look (which I actually loved with blue sleeves underneath). Better still, the team finally brought back the powder blues in 2008, which look fantastic. I swear have the teams in the game are playing in absolutely hideous uniforms at any given moment and you can never put the Royals in that category.

What a great uniform.

The K: The K should really almost be in the same paragraph as the uniforms. The K manages to look modern and timeless at the same time, and should be even better this season with the renovations done. I love that the K isn't a mallpark (knock on wood with renovations coming) and I love that it isn't supposed to look like the Baker Bowl. The retro-look is as nineties as teal pinstripes. As long as the fountains and some amout of green space remain in the outfield seats remain, I'm happy. And wonderfully, the big honking scoreboard actually accentuates the stadium's unique outfield and draws attention to it. Better still (knock on wood) the K is still simply "The K" and not "Qwest Ballpark" or "Circuit City Field". I can't explain how wonderful this is, and how much it sounds better and better with each passing year. On top of that, there are a higher percentage of good seats at the K than almost anywhere else in the game, thanks to the design of the seating bowl and the lack of a bazillion luxury suites. Good, affordable prices, too.

The AL Central: It doesn't get talked about much, but despite Selig's incessant preening about how revenue sharing and the luxury tax has "worked", perhaps the biggest thing baseball did to level the playing field was simply adding two Central divisions. In effect, most of the American League's smallest markets now have their own little competition going, with the winner getting to face the behemoths from the East Coast Megalopolis and Greater L.A. in an essentially random showdown. Last year, when us Royals fans were bragging about how we'd do in the National League, we should have also been thankful we weren't still in the old AL West or, God forbid, the AL East. The aging Tigers and White Sox won't be contending in two years, maybe sooner, which means Dayton Moore only needs to build a better team than the Twins and Indians, who are just as limited financially as he is.

Progress: Finally, we're makin' progress. Here are the win totals during the Royals Review Era (since 2005): 56, 62, 69, 75. The Royals don't even have a top ten draft pick next year! (Which is actually kinda bad, I suppose.) Not only is the big league team getting better, everyone agrees the farm system is getting better as well. Is anything assured? No. We don't know where this will end, whether its a World Series Championship or just a team that doesn't suck for a few seasons. The point is, for the first time since the late 90s (and then only briefly), it really looks like the team is on the rise. We don't know where the Royals are going to end up, but their progress is going to be fun to watch.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I'm off to the in-law's house in Ohio tomorrow morning and won't be too internet-involved. Expect more free Royals content after the weekend, including a new radio affiliate profile.

Rany on Grienke

2008-11-25T17:02:03Z

Rany on Grienke

Rany with one of his longest works yet. He really wants to sign Grienke, but doesn't think it will happen.

What I found more interesting then everything though was the following quote:

"Baird didn’t get Beltran signed to a long-term deal, but as it happens, it wasn’t for lack of trying, or even for lack of succeeding – negotiations with Beltran were proceeding well until factors outside of Baird’s control intervened. (The more I learn about the Allard Baird Era, the more I’m convinced that the Allard Baird Era was not the fault of Allard Baird.)"

I'd love to hear that story.

Baseball America's Top Ten Royals Prospects

2008-11-24T18:00:41Z

Good stuff from Baseball America this morning:

Like the Athletics before them, the Rays have become the hope for the hopeless. While the disparities between large- and small-revenue clubs stacks the deck in favor of the Yankees, Red Sox and others, Tampa Bay proved again in 2008 that a less-advantaged club can succeed if it drafts well, develops its own players and makes wise trades.

That's good news for the Royals. But it also leads to the question: If the Rays can do it, why hasn't Kansas City been able to break through?

Here are your top ten Royals prospects according to the venerable BA:

Mike Moustakas
Eric Hosmer
Daniel Cortes
Mike Montgomery
Tim Melville
Danny Duffy
Danny Gutierrez
Carlos Rosa
Kila Ka'aihue
Blake Wood

In conclusion:

They [Montgomery, Moustakas, Hosmer] will be counted on to lead the next Royals' resurgence, but it will likely require more patience. Most of the Royals' best young players already have reached the majors, though they have accumulated a number of strong arms and athletic center fielders in their system. They have few hitting prospects at the upper levels, however, and few high-ceiling bats besides third baseman Mike Moustakas and Hosmer.

At 2:30 EST J.J. Cooper will be hosting a Royals chat at BA. I'll also be posting a brief Q&A with him a bit later, so if you have a good question, share it ASAP in the comments.

Remembering Leo Nunez

2008-11-23T23:03:15Z

On May 9, 2005, the Royals invaded Canada to take on the Blue Jays. At 8-23, the Royals were already fifteen games back in the AL Central, but you couldn't tell that to the 13,000 rabid Jays fans who watched a brilliant baseball spectacle that Monday night in the Skydome.

With the Blue Jays leading 6-1, illustrious Royals manager Tony Pena -- who would be fired later that week -- sent a young Leo Nunez out in the bottom of the 8th. Prior to that season, Nunez had never pitched above A-ball, and like fellow Royals rookie Ambiorix Burgos, Nunie was a mere twenty one years young. Despite his inexperience, Nunez was unfazed, striking out Ken Huckaby swinging to begin his career. He followed that K with another, this time getting Orlando Hudson looking. With two outs and no one on, he induced a pop-up foul from Reed Johnson, and walked back to the dugout with a perfect lifetime ERA. The Allard Baird development machine had just churned out another great young reliever...

At the time, nobody really had any idea why the Royals had rushed Nunez and Burgos (who had been called up on April 23) to the Majors so soon, and nobody ever found a better answer than "well, all the other guys are terrible". (I've long held that there's sorta a reverse racism in baseball regarding Dominican pitchers, as both Nunez and Burgos were, a kind of romantic mystique that imagines that they're all so talented that they can handle anything, while also so alien that they aren't really nervous or distracted because they probably don't know whats going on or who anybody is, while Bubba Kyle McTevins is gonna be overwhlemed because he's dealing with information overload and is still geeked up because he's sitting next to Mark Grudzielanek in the dugout. Just a theory, love to see what you think.) Burgos, it was thought, was more talented, but Nunez might also be a starter. Again, why he needed to jump from A-ball to the American League for a 8-24 team rather than working on his repertoire in the minors was never really explained. I suppose the Royals just thought that other teams had young pitchers show up out of nowhere, so that that might also happen with Burgos and Nunez, despite the fact that combined they were 42 years old and weighed 200 pounds.

The faces of Nunez.

Nunez started well, allowing just one earned run in his first five games. However, he then turned in two bad outings in relative proximity, being left on the mound to allow five and six runs respectively. After eleven appearances his ERA was over 8.00. Still, the reputation of the team's coaching staff speaks for itself, and we really cannot over-state the instruction he was recieving. Nunez was never wholly effective for any long stretches as a rookie, and ended the season with an ERA of 7.55 (although this was the wretched STEROID ERA, so that was actually a league average ERA, sincerely, the uninformed radio talk-show guys of America). Weirdly, his 53.7 IP for the '05 Royals remains his career high, despite the fact that a) he was ineffective and b) there was absolutely no point to him being out there.

Nunie's (I can't remember if we called him "nunie"/"noonie" or not) next two seasons were something of a holding pattern. In '06 he actually spent a good portion of the season in the minors and appeared in only seven games with the Royals. While Nunez had seen action as a starter earlier in his minor league career, in '05 and '06 the Royals used him exclusively as a reliever for two years. After another wave of injuries and time in the minors, Nuez reappareaed in '07. In '07, naturally, it was time to let him start again. Why? No reason really, but it wasn't like the new regime had anything to lose.

Nunez took one for the team in Spring Training, 2007.

From late July through August of '07 Nunez made six starts and randomly appeared as a reliever once. In those seven games he wasn't bad, posting a 4.05 ERA in 33.1 IP. Considering he also allowed seven home runs over that stretch, he was either lucky to only have a 4.05 ERA or actually a much more effective pitcher who'd had some bad homer luck. Nunez managed twenty five strikeouts against just ten walks as well. Considering he was still just 23 years old, was coming off some minor injuries in '06 and had never really been consistently used, it wasn't a bad beginning. Nevertheless, the six runs he'd allowed in his sixth start, against Detroit, seemed to discourage the braintrust, and Nunez would never start for the Royals again. Instead, Leo made six relief appearances in September, running off a 3.48 ERA stretch, and finished '07 with a 3.92 ERA.

Nunez made the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training in '08 and appeared in the Royals first two games, both victories. Through May 27th, Nunez was a regular member of the Hispanic Panic bullpen and one of its, well, I guess we should be horrible shouldn't we... one of the real key compadres. After twenty one appearances in 2008 Nunez was the owner of a 1.71 ERA and owned a clean slate homer-wise. Unfortunately, he hit the DL with a sore muscle in his right side. Nunez would return in late July, and while he was adequate in his last twenty four games pitched, he wasn't as awesome as he had been, posting a 3.95 ERA in 27.1 IP.

As it would turn out, Nunez would make his final appearance as a Royal during the season finale, appearing in the bottom of the 7th with the bases loaded and the Twins leading 2-0. Nunez allowed a two-run single to Delmon Young, but ended the rally with a "double-play" fly ball from Brendan Harris and a putout at home. The Royals would lose the game and Nunez would ever appear in a Royals uniform again.

So was Nunez improving? Was he poised for a breakout, or at least sustained success? Here's a big table of numbers, including the somewhat pointless '06 numbers:

	IP	WHIP	K/9	K/BB	ERA	FIP
2005	53.7	1.69	5.37	1.78	7.55	5.09
2006	13.3	1.50	4.73	1.40	4.73	5.74
2007	43.7	1.23	7.63	3.70	3.92	4.75
2008	48.3	1.24	4.84	1.73	2.98	3.75
Car.	159.0	1.41	5.77	2.13	4.93	??

If anyone wants to calculate his career FIP, you're welcome to it. It's possible that we've already seen whatever Leo's breakout looks like, the stretch from '07 through late May of '08 when he upped his strikeout rate, while keeping the walks under control. Nunez was much more effective against righties than lefties (who always slugged well against him) over his Royal career, a largely irrelevant fact considering he was managed mostly by Buddy Bell and Trey Hillman. Still, a great many of these numbers immistakably trend positive, which can't be said for the man he was traded for, our beloved Mike Jacobs. Its possible that, on the day he was traded, Nunez was the best pitcher that Moore had dealt from the team, and even so, you could debate overall the merits of Nunez versus Ramirez.

For such a young guy, Nunez made his way into a great number of Royals games and discussions in the latter half of this anxious decade, and will not leave a small entry in the eternal Royals encyclopedia. Leo appeared in 106 games as a Royal, good for 49th in team history, between Dan Reichert and Jerry Don Gleaton. His 159 career innings pitched is good for 87th in team history, just trailing current former Brave Kyle Davies. Finally, Nunez struck out 102 batters as a Royal and is tied, perhaps forever, with well-remembered 2003 hero Brian Anderson at 86th on the all-time list.

According to WPA, two appearances by Nunez stand out as his most glorious. The first came way back in 2005, in his fourth career game. With the Royals leading Baltimore 6-4 (it had been 6-0) Nunez relived Runelyvs Hernandez with two men on and one out in the fourth. Nunez ended the rally, striking out Melvin Mora and retiring Miggie Tejada to end the inning. He followed that up with a four-batter scoreless fifth and a 1-2-3 sixth, giving way to Jamie Cerda. Thanks to Nunez's scoreless 2.2 IP, he earned a 29% WPA, which he would never match in his career. He came close however, three seasons later, on Opening Day 2008 against the vaunted Tigers. (AKA the Brett Tomko Game.) With the scored tied at four, Nunez pitched a scoreless four-batter ninth (walk) as well as a perfect tenth, holding down the fort for two innings before the Royals took the lead in the eleventh, and good for a WPA of 28%.

A Marlin now, Nunez must endure the bitter knowledge that he must endure as a professional athlete in Miami.

Nunez, let me take a long last look, before we say goodbye.

*Leonel miscellania: Weirdly, Nunez leaves the Royals with a bizarre dominance over Mark Teixeira. In nine career Nunie-Tex battles, Teixeira is .000/.000/.000 with a strikeout. Completely meaningless, but the kind of thing that will get mentioned on televsion and, sadly, will probably dictate a situational usage of Nunez at some point. Leo's most common strikeout victim? Scrap-yard hero Brandon Innnnnnnge, who has four strikeouts against LN in ten plate appearances. Ever the gentle soul, there is no player who Nunez has pegged twice, only a bunch of solos.

The Coco Crisp Trade: Change We Didn't Really Need and Can't Really Believe In

2008-11-20T18:03:16Z

To our surprise, Dayton Moore has had an active autumn, making two out of the blue trades that have exclusively involved Major League players. Moreover, Dayton's immortal "pitching is the currency of baseball" line has rung true, with both Mike Jacobs and now Coco Crisp paid for with bullpen arms. There's even a similar element regarding taking on salary. While the Jacobs trade was a non-solution to a non-problem, on balance the Crisp pickup looks more like a half-solution to, perhaps, a half problem. The currency paid for these two players was not high, but it wasn't insignificant either, and when its mid-June and the Royals send, say, Jeff Fulchino out to keep a 4-2 game close, we should remember these trades.

Reading the hundreds of comments yesterday, like many of you, my initial reaction was a painful realization of the loss of Ramon Ramirez: probably the best relief pitcher the Royals have had this decade, in the non-Soria division. As the hours passed, and completely rational arguments about the fungibility of relievers poured in, as well as some less than super-optimistic projections for Ram-Ram we're thrown around however, it didn't look so bad. For the past year I've argued that if Dayton truly has an ability to find arms anywhere, then he needs to leverage that talent. With the Nunez and Ramirez swaps, he looks like he's trying to do just that. Ramirez wasn't likely an easy player for Moore to let go of either, and I applaud his willingness to move one of his shinest acquisitions. I'll miss Ramirez -- who always reminded me of the Wallace Stevens poem "The Idea of Order at Key West" -- but hopefully, there will always be more Ramirezes to fall for.

So, with this trade in mind, we can really see a clear modus operandi developing from the Moore camp. And as Kahrl pointed out on BP yesterday, Ramon Ramirez was, essentially, originally Tony Graffanino, so in effect, the Royals acquired a starting centerfielder for a utility player, which is certainly yummy. Its trades like this that have got the Royals to where they are and give us hope for the future. While the method was strong, however, I can't help but think that the motivation, nevertheless, remains questionable. As with the Jacobs trade, I don't think that you can view this trade in a wholly positive light, given Dayton's idiosyncratic approach to team-building.

One of the biggest takeaways of this trade is that Dayton Moore does not view David DeJesus as the team's proper centerfielder, a direction the team has been moving in since the earliest days of the Moore regime. As you will recall, Moore's first trade was the Gathright-Howell exchange. This is a half-problem, at worst. Although DeJesus's glove might be slightly below average, there's no evidence that it's really a major problem. Instead, DeJesus just doesn't fit Moore's retrograde template: he wants a true speed-demon with a sterling reputation in center. Defense matters to Moore, at three or four positions, just like OBP matters to him at three or four lineup spots. Nevermind that DDJ's offense goes from asset to problematic by shifting him to a corner. The Royals have now made two major trades (Howell and Ramirez are legitimate big league arms with talent) to address a fairly cosmetic issue.

Where are we going to have that parade again, Dayton?

As for Crisp, it must be said that he's a nice player and probably the third or fourth best position player on the Royals now. He's an upgrade over DeJesus in center and a better player than Gathright or Maier. As a group, Royal CFs hit unbelievably horrible last season. Like, TPJ (well, good TPJ) bad: .268/.316/.322. We'll have to wait and see, but there might even be something to be gained by letting DDJ bat at a lower-pressure defensive spot as well, as he hit terribly as a CF last season, posting a .279/.326/.386 line. And that kind of performance just isn't acceptable, even in center-field...

Only, .279/.326/.386 isn't far removed from what Coco Crisp has managed the last three seasons. At the end of the 2005 season, his last in Cleveland, Coco was a career .287/.329/.424 hitter. Maybe it was injuries, maybe it was a loss of playing time, maybe it was the Boston cold, but he has preceded to spend his peak-age seasons failing to match that production. For all the emotional ups and downs, he was a remarkably consistent carmine (to use a Hawkism for the Red Sox):

	BA	OBP	SLG
2006	.264	.317	.385
2007	.268	.330	.382
2008	.283	.344	.407

Clearly, David DeJesus and his career .287/.360/.422 line wasn't good enough.

You can see a very gradual comeback, but the heights of his Cleveland days are gone forever. The power, especially against right-handed pitchers (unfortunately the majority these days) is gone. To be fair, Crisp hit well against lefties last season, even slugging .474. The Hillman regime however, has a pretty weak record regarding platoon splits however, so its doubtful this edge will be maximized, and I suspect in full-time duty, his numbers will drop from 2008.

So absent other trades, it looks like the Royals are planning on a DeJesus-Crisp-Guillen outfield. Ah, Jose Guillen, the gift that keeps on giving. The outfield defense should be slightly above average, but only just so with perhaps the worst regular in the game patrolling the Guillen-Zone. Then there's the offense, which will need a) another mini-peak season from DDJ b) a bounceback from Crisp and c) a bounceback from Josey to be a positive factor for the Royals.

That seems like a lot to ask for simply because David DeJesus doesn't look like Dayton's idea of a centerfielder.

Royals Radio Affiliate Profile: Holdrege, Nebraska [KMTY-FM]

2008-11-18T00:52:43Z

The Royals Radio Network is comprised of over eighty affiliates and stretches across seven states. In this recurring series (previous features listed below at the bottom of the page) Royals Review attempts to give each affiliate its proper airing, celebrating the regional reach and heritage of Royals baseball. In an era defined by the endless quest for the big money, baseball on the radio is a decidedly low-stakes, low-tech venture. Let it always lay hidden like a strength in the backyards of the mind.

Holdrege, Nebraska- KMTY-FM 97.7

Population: 5,636
Miles from Kansas City: 330

Four hours west/northwest of Kansas City, Holdrege is the Seat of Phelps County and a key affiliate in southwestern Nebraska. Despite being mostly unchallenged in rural Nebraska, the Royals have only seven radio affiliates in the Cornhusker State with the smallish Holdrege left to carry a flag that’s been dropped by Grand Island. Then again, as we know from BHWick’s look into the history of the network the Royals have always been weirdly weak in Nebraska: even in the heady days of 1980, Kansas City had only nine affiliates there, although two where in the aforementioned Grand Island. Holdrege remains the firewall against apathy in its corner of the state.

Founded in the 1880s, Holdrege is named for George W. Holdrege, a railroad executive who played a key role in developing the area around Phelps County, including encouraging immigration. In 1928 a monument to Holdrege was unveiled in town. According to the Chamber of Commerce, Holdrege is a great place to live because "Holdrege Focuses on ‘Family’", and I can only assume those quotation marks around "family" mean that they’ve come to define it in a different way in Holdrege. Makes sense too, considering that 23% of Phelps County voted for Barack HUSSEIN Obama this November.

Have you noticed that there’s like no celebration of Christmas anymore? Not in Holdrege, which is already offering Christmas Horse & Buggy rides and on November 13, had Christmas Carolers singing downtown. The fun will run through December, with Santa’s House located on East Avenue, across from the bank. Aside from Christmas, the big event in Holdrege is Swedish Days, held annually at midsummer. I’m sorry, midsommar. This last year, the Fest featured book talks, a Christian music concert, a fishing contest, an air show, and of course, the tassel-dances. (Video highlights here.) However, the most unique event, may be the annual bed races. (Again, its all about "family" in Holdrege.) Apparently, bed racing is a big folky Swedish thing, and a hallmark of many similar festivals. This year’s celebration also marked Holdrege’s 125th anniversary. Your humble blogger attempted to find more information on the Days, especially the winner of Swedish Days King & Queen. However, Holdrege does not appear to have a local newspaper, making it especially difficult. If you know who won, please let us know… Similarly, I really wanted to add a nice picture of a Swedish-looking woman to help illustrate this post, but could find nothing online in that direction. I guess there aren’t any. All I can offer is this late-90's style web graphic.

A variant of the Cross of Scania, every Scandinavian country has a flag with this design. Which is your favorite?

Seven miles from Holdrege lies the town of Atlanta, which is both Dayton Moore’s favorite place to scout and perhaps the most interesting historical site in Phelps County. Now essentially a ghost town, during World War II Atlanta was the home of a prison camp called Camp Atlanta. Originally built to hold conscientious objectors, Camp Atlantaa (this is a great link, btw) eventually held over 3,000 German POWs. The labor provided by these prisoners was a major boon to local agriculture. As to how much better the Nazis were at husking corn were than the COs, it is not known. Glenn Thompson, a Holdrege resident, is the author of Prisoners on the Plains (link) which is an account of the Camp.

via www.nebraskaprairie.org

On the south edge of town lies Lake Seldom, which is a restored wetland designed to serve as a habitat for birds. Although an outsider might not realize it, this region of Nebraska is one of the most unique birdwatching regions of the country. (Ideally, the Royals would find a way to capitzlie on this regional strength. Sandhill Crane Day at the K NOW!) If birding isn’t your thing, you can roll a few frames at the Hasty Lanes Bowling Alley.

No Major League player has ever been born in Holdrege, and as far as I can tell, anywhere else in Phelps County. Considering only 105 native-born Nebraskans have ever made the Major Leagues, this is not that surprising. (Seriously, how shockingly low is that number? Then again, as I said last week, no one lives in Nebraska.) Otto Miller, however, was born in Minden, and may be the closest thing to a local player ever. Born in 1889, Lowell Otto Miller, nicknamed "Moonie", was a catcher/1B for the Brooklyn Robins (nee Superbas) for thirteen years (1910-1922). In 927 career games, Moonie hit .245/.275/.308, which wasn’t terribly good, even in the 1910s, and comes out to an OPS+ of 67. The Robins made the World Series in both 1916 & 1920, losing both times (Red Sox & Indians). Moonie went 3-22 with a walk in post-season play. Miller seems to have stayed in Brooklyn after his career ended, dying there in 1962. Miller’s death was a strange and possibly tragic one, as he fell/jumped from a fourth story window.

On a happier note, some dude who walked across America, or is, or was trying, went through Holdrege this April. It is uncertain as to if he listened to the Royals while doing something.

Finally, a poem from Bill Holm, a Minnesotan of Icelandic heritage who looks disturbingly like Ron Gardenhire.

Under Holdrege, Nebraska

I skip stones into billowing Nebraska wheat
as if it were a rolling golden ocean.
One nips the beard in seven arcs until
it cuts into a breaker and sinks.
No telling how far that stone will drop.

-Bill Holm

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Previous Affiliate Profiles:

Hot Stove Preview- AL Central

2008-11-17T19:32:11Z

Hot Stove Preview- AL Central

What Should They Do? There are two somewhat radical moves that the Royals could consider:

1. Recognize that most closers have short lifespans, that the bullpen is fairly deep behind him, and that his trade value will never be higher, and move Joakim Soria for a premium corner outfield talent.
2. Decide that they're actually fairly close to contention, and increase payroll by $20 million, hopefully using more discernment in the free-agent market than the sort that brought them Jose Guillen.

Absent doing one of those two things, the Royals are going to be in a holding pattern of some kind or another, with an outside chance of contention if things break just perfectly, but more likely to finish once again with a win total somewhere in the seventies. Sometimes there are no magic bullets and a holding pattern is the best that a team can do, particularly if they have limited financial resources—Kansas City may well be one of those cases. However, Dayton Moore ought to at least be contemplating these sorts of alternatives.

Royals Review

Royals Confidence Index - December

Johnny Giavotella

Johnny Giavotella

Justin Huber and Dick Kaegel Are Still Talking

Projecting the Royals' 2009 Pitching With Bill James (Seriously, It's Just a Title)

Boring Methodology Stuff

Starter Projections

Reliever Projections

Concluding Thoughts

Royals Radio Affiliate Profile: Shenandoah, Iowa [KMA 960 AM]

Shenandoah Iowa: KMA-AM 960

Royals 2008 Secondary Averages and Power/Speed Numbers

Royals 2008 Secondary Averages and Power/Speed Numbers

What Do Royals Fans Have to Be Thankful For?

Rany on Grienke

Rany on Grienke

Baseball America's Top Ten Royals Prospects

Remembering Leo Nunez

The Coco Crisp Trade: Change We Didn't Really Need and Can't Really Believe In

Royals Radio Affiliate Profile: Holdrege, Nebraska [KMTY-FM]

Holdrege, Nebraska- KMTY-FM 97.7

Population: 5,636 Miles from Kansas City: 330

Hot Stove Preview- AL Central

Hot Stove Preview- AL Central

Population: 5,636
Miles from Kansas City: 330