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Is Lorenzo Cain the Best Option for CF?

Lorenzo Cain crashes into the right field wall after missing a catch in the fourth inning against the Minnesota Twins.

I had been planning this article for about a week or so. This morning while finishing it up, Yodazilla basically brings up the same topic. Nice to see great minds think alike.

Once Melky Cabrera was trade to the Giants, the Royals came out and stated that Lorenzo Cain will be the starting CF for the Royals going into spring training. Cain had a decent year in AAA with 16 HRs and a 0.312 AVG. All arrows point to him as the best option, but I am not so sure.

The Royals really have 4 options right now for CF, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, Mitch Maier and David Lough. To begin with, are the ZIP projections for the 4 players:

Name Bats Age BA OBP SLG OPS CF Fielding
Cain R 26 0.259 0.314 0.370 0.684 Fair
Dyson L 27 0.237 0.290 0.302 0.592 Very Good
Maier L 30 0.246 0.324 0.353 0.677 Fair
Lough L 26 0.255 0.297 0.362 0.659 Fair

ZIPs has Cain with the highest OPS with Maier and Lough closely behind him. Dyson's OPS looks to be about 100 points lower. Dyson is the only one projected to play above average defense in CF while the other 3 are below average.

Here are the numbers from the Oliver projections:

Name BA OBP SLG OPS
Cain 0.266 0.323 0.388 0.711
Dyson 0.239 0.290 0.308 0.598
Maier 0.243 0.321 0.348 0.669
Lough 0.265 0.301 0.394 0.695

Cain still has the best numbers, but Lough now jumps Maier with Dyson even further behind. Here is my quick take on the 4 players.

Continue reading this post »

110 comments  |  1 recs | 

Happy Birthday Buddy Biancalana and Pat Tabler!!!

Oh what a day this is for Royals fans. Today Buddy Biancalana turns 52 and Pat Tabler turns 54.

Biancalana played six seasons for the Royals (1982-87) hitting .213/.269/.304. Even in the 1980s, that wasn't much offense, as that's an OPS+ of 56. In 1985, the year the Royals won the World Series, Buddy played in 81 games and hit a TPJ-esque .188, though he did somehow manage a .277 OBP. Nobody talks about his awesome '86 however, when he hit .242 and nearly manged a .300 OBP (.298).

Tabler was a Royal from 1988-90, hitting .279/.339/.347. Tabler joined the Royals in 1988 after being traded from Cleveland for Bud Black. In 1990, he was sent to the Mets in return for eventual Royal legend Archie Corbin.

It's a terrible shame these two never played together.

7 comments  | 

What Will Happen If Wil Myers is Tearing Up AAA Pitching?

If seems that Wil Myers will begin the season in either AA or AAA. After struggling a bit in 2011 (0.254/0.353/0.393), which was attributed to a knee injury, he destroyed the Arizona Fall League (0.360/0.481/0.674). His OPS in the AFL (1.156) was better than the one Eric Hosmer hit in AAA (1.107) before he was called up at the beginning of the 2011 season.

What happens if in 2012 Myers repeats what he did in the AFL in AAA and forces the Royals to call him up? The Royals outfield is set for 2012 with Alex Gordon in LF, Lorenzo Cain in CF and Jeff Francoeur in RF. There isn't any more room in the OF. Is he going to be moved to CF where he has played a total of 13 games with the Royals? Will the Royals sit Alex Gordon after coming off one of the best seasons ever as any Royal has ever experienced? Will management's poster boy Frenchy be forced to sit? Will Wil be forced to the bench or will he just stay in the AAA?

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420 comments  |  4 recs | 

Buster Olney Gets Phenomenological on Salvador Perez

Between synchronic and diachronic. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Buster Olney, the sage of the "as told to" and doubter of all things WAR, has stepped aside from relaunching the productive outs crusade to share a philosophical musing of great import:

KC Royals C Salvador Perez has a ton of presence, similar to what Sandy Alomar had. Seems like a natural leader.

Talking about Sal Perez's "presence" Olney raises tantalizing questions about presence itself and of course about absence. By understanding Perez's presence we can only consider the implications of his absence and how that binary infuses our understanding of desire. Royal opponents are defined by the lack of Perez, but so too is the viewer. Save, I suppose, Olney himself, who is at once deeply aware of Perez's being but also, we must assume, understanding of some deeper awareness of emptiness. An emptiness made visible in the shadow of Perez's light. In this regard, Olney emerges as a seer vatic.

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164 comments  |  17 recs | 

Pat Burrell Would Have Been a Historically Great Royal, If He Had Been a Royal

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Pat Burrell retired today, proving once again that if Brian Sabean doesn't want you, no one wants you. Nevertheless, we pause to honor him today.

Burrell doesn't seem likely to have a huge place in history, falling somewhere in the Hall of Good category, and the ongoing WAR-revolution isn't likely to help his legacy. He was, even at his supposed peak, quite often a 1.5 win player. At least by some metrics. Still, in nine seasons with the Phillies, he hit 251 home runs. Had he been a Royal, this would be quite many.

George Brett leads the Royals with 317 homers. Second is Mike Sweeney, who managed just 197, so Burrell, had he been a Royal, would have comfortably been second in team history in home runs. Well then.

The Royals don't really have a comparable player to Burrell in their history, who would perhaps be close to some weird averaging of Danny Tartabull's power with Hal McRae's or Amos Otis's longevity as a Royal. Tartabull managed 124 homers in just 657 games as a Royal, while McRae and Otis took 1800+ games to get to 169 and 193, respectively.

So anyway, if he had been a Royal, he would have been a big deal. But he wasn't.

11 comments  |  1 recs | 

Who Will Have a Higher Walk Rate in 2012: Moose or Hosmer?

Jeff wrote about Hosmer's walk rate last week, noting that Eric Hosmer's low BB totals are perhaps, just a little bit, something to keep an eye on.

Hosmer and Mike Moustakas have been mentioned in the same sentence since Hosmer was drafted, and the long held assumption was that Hosmer was the more polished hitter, the more patient hitter. From the beginning really Moose has been fairly aggressive and there have been concerns about this playing out at the Major League level as a problem.

Interestingly, Hosmer and Moose posted identical walk rates of 6% in 2012, and when you factor in IBBs (Hosmer had 7, Moose had none) you actually have Moose rating better in this regard.

Jumping off of our discussion from last week, let's talk about your expectations for Moose and his patience in 2012, and if he or Hosmer will have a higher walk rate.

Poll
Who will have a higher walk rate in 2012?
Eric Hosmer
402 votes
Mike Moustakas
67 votes

469 votes | Poll has closed

49 comments  | 

Should the Royals Go After Edwin Jackson?

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Yesterday Joe Sheehan wrote in his newsletter (which I recommend subscribing to) that the Royals should go after Edwin Jackson. Sheehan is and has been a Jackson advocate, pointing out that over the last three years, he's been very effective. For whatever reason, he's the rare example of the demand for a player not having a recency bias.

Since being traded to the Tigers, Jackson has made 96 starts, posted a 108 ERA+ and struck out 7.1 per nine. Next season will be his age 28 season, so he still has some upside.

As Sheehan points out, there aren't many teams left for Jackson to sign with and the Royals should be in that group.

The weakest link on the Royals is a starting rotation that, while improved, is loaded with back-rotation types like Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar. The Royals don't need starts; they need a starting pitcher, and if signing Jackson means Danny Duffy goes back to Triple-A or Luis Mendoza starts the year as a long man, neither of those is that bad relative to the three- or four-win upgrade Jackson represents over those two and the other in-house options. Adding Jackson makes managing the staff easier, thanks to his reliability, and because Jackson is 28 and improving, he even brings some upside. The Royals don't catch the Tigers by signing Jackson. However, the move would close the gap between the teams and make it more likely that an upset would happen. It also starts to position the team for 2013, which should be their year to win.

It's hard to know just what exactly the market for Jackson now is. Sheehan threw out Buerhle's contract as a possible comp -- 4 years $58 million -- which is as good as guess as any. The Red Sox are still out there as possible rivals, the most likely big market team that should be interested. According to internet rumors, Jackson has multiple three-year offers before him. Could the patented Dayton Moore extra year be enough to sign Jackson?

Poll
Should the Royals offer Edwin Jackson a 4-year $58 million dollar contract?
Yes
583 votes
No
324 votes
Not sure
78 votes

985 votes | Poll has closed

94 comments  | 

A Lesson In Patience: Brad Lidge, Jonathan Broxton And The Settled Market

Brad Lidge was available for $1 million. One million. It's enough to make every other team other than the Washington Nationals shake their heads. And if it doesn't, then it definitely should.

Let's compare two deals. Lidge just signed for one-year at $1 million with the Nats. The Kansas City Royals struck a deal with Jonathan Broxton for one year at $4 million. To keep things quite simple, the mathematical equation would read: Brad Lidge x 4 = Jonathan Broxton.

Two dominant relievers over the last few seasons in the National League. Two pitchers coming off of seasons riddled and ruined by injuries. Both are similar projects hoping to bounce back with one-year deals before hitting the market for another big closer-type of payday. One just happened to cost four times than the other.

Now, that's not to fault the Royals. They struck early and that's what the market dictated at that time. You could argue that the Royals should have waited, but they didn't and Broxton should be a fine addition to the pen that could use another veteran arm with the loss of Aaron Crow to the starting rotation. Plus a young pen that was overburdened last season will undoubtedly find some arms that fail to realize last season's success.

So this isn't so much a slight on the Royals signing of Broxton as it an object lesson in the beauty of waiting. Every year there are numerous veterans waiting on the late minute call before spring training as agents work the phones to get their guys into camp with someone. Lidge was one such guy and settled for another NL East destination for a middle relief spot at a cool million.

R.J. Anderson writes about Lidge's predicament and asks, "Did anyone, anyone at all, realize that Lidge’s earned run average over the past two seasons sits at 2.49? Probably not, and for good reason: Lidge missed most of the 2011 season with a shoulder strain. Upon return, Lidge brought his usual strikeout rates (albeit with an extra helping of walks) but lacked his trademark velocity. Instead, his average fastball sat below 90 miles per hour, which sent his slider usage through the roof."

Perhaps Broxton exhibited better health than Lidge. At the very least, however, Lidge did come back at season's end to show positive contributions from the pen. That's something Broxton cannot claim.

The saying reads, "The best things come to those who wait." Fan bases and some front offices are ruled by impatience. Local sports media are all over their teams to make a move -- now! -- in the name of fixing last season's problems. But here lies yet another example of letting a market settle before filling a hole. A decent bet could be made on Lidge being one of the best bargains on the market by the end of 2012.

66 comments  |  3 recs | 


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