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Rule 5 Draft & Gil Meche

Originally a Diary by Loyal2sdad, consider this the catch-call post for all today's big news: the Rule V Draft, the release of Runny, the Gil Meche signing...-RR

The Royals selected Joakim Soria, a 6'2", 170 LB, RHP.
Soria pitched last year for the Mexico City Red Devils, and then for a Low A team in Fort Wayne.

Currently, he is pitching in the Mexican Winter League, and this is what has garnered him the attention:

8-0, 2.02 ERA, 19 BB and 62 K in 62 IP. He is leading the league in all three of the pitching triple crown stats.

Scouting report indicates his fastball sits in the low 90s (topping out at 95), with an above avg changeup. Breaking ball has been a problem, but apparently has been improving this winter.

On the negative side, we did lose Adam Donachie in the draft.

Still to be determined is who DM will remove from the 40 man roster to make room for Soria, as our 40 man roster was full going in to the Rule 5 Draft.

WOuldn't be surprised if DM has a lot more moves under his sleeve this off-season.

------------------

And yes, the Royals have cut Runelyvs Hernandez to make room for Soria on the 40-man.

Some immediate reaction from "CentralChamps2009"

I'm sorry, but this to me is just another sign that DM is for real. I could never have seen Baird having the guts to dump the Round Mound of. . .well, the Mound. This, along with spinning off Affeldt last year and now Burgos (knowing that his predecessors had likely ruined both of them, at least for KC) and overspending on Meche, who seems to have done very well in Seattle (not exactly a contender the last few years, and in what I believe to be a hitter-friendly park to boot), shows to me that DM knows just as well as we all do what's wrong with the team and is willing to be far more aggressive to improve it.

I say remember this the next time DM talks up Berroa or waxes on about Bell---he's far more shrewd than anyone is giving him credit for.

Yes. The Baird era is beginning to be torn down. It'll be weird not having to read stories about how Affedlt and Hernandez are read to dominate/take it to the next level during Spring Training this year.

-----------

Meche-a-palooza

ESPN and others report that the Gil Meche deal is finalized. He's a Royal.

For the next 5 years. Original Diary on Meche here.
Meche stats at baseball-reference here.Hilarious response from Lookout Landing here

It may be a little too quicky and dirty, but here's Gil's ERA+ numbers since 2003.

Gil Meche ERA+

2003- 97
2004- 86
2005- 85
2006- 96

Remember, ERA+ is park-adjusted. Meche's career ERA is 4.65, in 815 innings.

Returning to Meche, he'll be 28 next season, so its not as if we're not even sure he'll be upright by the time his deal expires. I've never thought much of him to be honest. However, check his Similarity Score comps:

Gil Meche: Most Similar Pitchers Through Age 27

1.Jason Marquis (972)
2. Hank Johnson (968)
3. Jason Jennings (959)
4. Chris Carpenter (959)
5. Jason Schmidt (958)
6. Matt Clement (956)
7. Shawn Estes (955)

Well that certainly looks promising: thumbs up on the Carpenter and Schmidt and Jennings, thumbs sideways on Marquis and Estes. Hank Johnson, by the way, was a 1920s and 30s hurler for the Yankees and three other teams. Hank died in 1982.

(Moment of silence for Hank Johnson, the #2 comparable to Gil Meche.)

Thank you.

Meanwhile, "EricConley" points out that:

This is the first time since David Cone that the Royals went out and did whatever it took to bring in a guy that everyone wanted. What a great time to be a Royals fan. This is a huge signing, sure we had to overspend a bit but we got the guy we wanted even though a lot of other teams wanted him just as much. It's a new day for KC fans, we have a savvy GM and the ownership seems to be behind him and is showing it with money. I bet this signing increases the Royals ticket sales by enough to be statistically signifigant. Go Royals!!!!!

At least historically speaking, I must say I agree. This signing is a different order of magnitude that the Joe Mays or Scott Elarton sigings of last winter. Meche may actually be part of the next good Royals team.

To that end, Neil deMause at BP points out that the Meche signing certainly goes against the idea that only the nuclear powers on the coasts (and Chicago) are spending major money. According to Roto World the salary breakdown is:

2007- $7 million
2008- $11 million
2009- $11 million
2010- $12 million
2011- $12 million

With a $2 million dollar signing bonus.

Cot's Baseball Contracts is already fresh on the scene with Mecher on the roster. As of now, Mike Sweeney will still be the highest paid Royal next season, at $11 million.

One last thing on Meche (for now), according to this season's Pecota, Meche has already peaked, as his Five-Year forecast shows nothing but more of the same:

Meche's Next Four Years (According to 2006 PECTOTA

2007: 100 IP, 4.97 ERA
2008: 100 IP, 4.92 ERA
2009: 101 IP, 4.81 ERA
2010: 76 IP, 4.88 ERA

All in all, PECTOA sees no improvement. The Homer-Rate will stay the same, hovering around 1.2 per 9 (high), the K-Rate will stay pedestrian (5.5-5.8 Ks per 9) and the walk rate will stay OK (3.3 ish per 9).

So basically, another low-K rate flyball pitcher (GB rates staying in the 40% range) to plod his wares at the K.

Can we move the fences further back??

0 recs  |  Comment 34 comments

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Where did you find that we took him?
Last I heard oakland traded for the first pick and they were gonna select him.
60% of the time it works every time!

by greggagneHOF on Dec 7, 2006 10:34 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sorry to see Adam Donachie go
I thought he was kind of a sleeper prospect at catcher.  It sounds like this guy we drafted has a pretty live arm might be an addition to the bullpen.
lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Dec 7, 2006 11:01 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Donachie will be back in 2007
I can't believe that Adam Donachie would struggled mightly at Wichita will last the full season in the majors.  He is the type of guy that is just too raw to hide on a ML roster. Donachie has some talent but it just isn't at that level yet.

by daveyork on Dec 7, 2006 6:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hopefully we will get him back
maybe he will struggle and they will offer him back for 25K
60% of the time it works every time!

by greggagneHOF on Dec 7, 2006 11:13 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Royals
Release Runelvys Hernadez to make room on 40man roster for Soria.

by ROR 1Fan on Dec 7, 2006 11:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Is this actually news?
Or is it just wishful thinking?  If it's news, where did you get it?

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 7, 2006 11:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i wanna see if he comes to camp in shape
before we release him, if hes in shape hes a decent option with experience.
60% of the time it works every time!

by greggagneHOF on Dec 7, 2006 11:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

i bet hes just wishing
 i havent seen this anywhere
60% of the time it works every time!

by greggagneHOF on Dec 7, 2006 11:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

MLB.com
MLB.Com has the complete list of Rule 5 Draft Selections
lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Dec 7, 2006 11:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

thanks lbk
60% of the time it works every time!

by greggagneHOF on Dec 7, 2006 11:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

810 WHB
Reported it.

by ROR 1Fan on Dec 7, 2006 11:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

DUDE YOUR RIGHT
WE CUT THE FAT OFF OUR ROSTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!
runny is gone

http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061207&content_id=1753657& ;vkey=news_kc&fext=.jsp&c_id=kc

60% of the time it works every time!

by greggagneHOF on Dec 7, 2006 12:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Fat Elvis has left the building!!!
I really couldn't help myself.  I'm a bit sorry to see him go.  If he coudl have kept himself in shape he would probably have been a solid #3 for quite some time, but.....

by EricConley on Dec 7, 2006 12:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

GMDM ROCKS!!
I'm sorry, but this to me is just another sign that DM is for real.  I could never have seen Baird having the guts to dump the Round Mound of. . .well, the Mound.  This, along with spinning off Affeldt last year and now Burgos (knowing that his predecessors had likely ruined both of them, at least for KC) and overspending on Meche, who seems to have done very well in Seattle (not exactly a contender the last few years, and in what I believe to be a hitter-friendly park to boot), shows to me that DM knows just as well as we all do what's wrong with the team and is willing to be far more aggressive to improve it.

I say remember this the next time DM talks up Berroa or waxes on about Bell---he's far more shrewd than anyone is giving him credit for.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 7, 2006 12:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Exclamation Points!!!!
With this many exclamation points for Runny, I'd hate to see how many dumping Berroa would get.  Some of us would need to replace the key on the keyboard.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 7, 2006 12:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dumping Berroa?
To quote Chevy Chase in a truly awesome comedy:

"We're gonna have so much fun we're gonna need plastic surgery to remove the grins from our faces"

by loyal2s dad on Dec 7, 2006 2:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

A more serious post
While the Meche contract is likely too much money, you have to admire the fact that we are at least going for it! Now, I would have preferred to have 3 years of Schmidt for the said $55 million - would that have been enough to persuade him to go with us instead of the Dodgers? Who knows.

I really like the potential of the Rule 5 pick. Somebody alluded that he might help the bullpen. Perhaps, but I guess it is also possible he could be in the rotation. (He has been a starter in the Mexican Winter League, while he was a reliever in the Mexican Summer League) GMDM also said in the Star today that he liked the versatility that Soria offered; that means to me that he could help in the bullpen or even contend for the rotation.

Now, onto the most encouraging news I've heard in a long time - they cut Hernandez! I'm going to refrain from the weight jokes, and instead just say this is a new, refreshing approach! This proves to me that GMDM can recognize and solve a problem, that he can differentiate reality from perception. Now, the next step to make me believe completely would be to release a guy that we have to pay regardless - acknowledge you understand the concept of sunk costs, and indeed it really will be a new era! My suggestion would be Sanders or Berroa. (I would prefer both be cut, but that's probably not going to happen).

by loyal2s dad on Dec 7, 2006 2:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Rule 5 pick/TB/OAK
Tampa Bay sold its pick to Oakland, and they selected a RF.

by loyal2s dad on Dec 7, 2006 2:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

This is the first time
This is the first time since David Cone that the Royals went out and did whatever it took to bring in a guy that everyone wanted.  What a great time to be a Royals fan.  This is a huge signing, sure we had to overspend a bit but we got the guy we wanted even though a lot of other teams wanted him just as much.  It's a new day for KC fans, we have a savvy GM and the ownership seems to be behind him and is showing it with money.  I bet this signing increases the Royals ticket sales by enough to be statistically signifigant.  Go Royals!!!!!

by EricConley on Dec 7, 2006 3:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sitting here wondering who will be released
from the 40 man to make room for Meche.

My guess is a pitcher - a quick glance at the position players shows no real good candidates for release. I think it should be either Dohmann or Duckworth.

by loyal2s dad on Dec 7, 2006 3:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Dohmann and Duckworth would be a good place to start or anyone with an ERA over 7.00 and dwindle that crowd down.
lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Dec 7, 2006 3:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wowser..... I am so happy I could explode....
With the addition of Meche we may just have a good solid pitching staff.  Odie, Hudson, Meche, Bannister, De La Rosa.  That would mean we could keep Greinke in Omaha to make sure the brain has caught up with the body.   This is a far cry from our revolving door rotation of last season.  Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!  

On Runny.... it is his own fault.  He has the talent and proved that several times last year.  But, he didn't care enough to keep himself in shape.  So, goodbye Elvis, I hope you have a good life.

The Rule V draftee sounds like the gem I was hoping for.  The Bullpen would be the best place as sort of a long reliever.  Then if Rosey screws up we have him to come in as our 5th starter.

Wow... and it isn't even Christmas Eve yet.   Thank you Mr. Moore for a wonderful early Christmas present...hope for next season.

by grudz69 on Dec 7, 2006 3:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Incredible
I don't care that all will say we overpaid (I can here Neyer whining now).  This organization needed to send a credible signal to fans that times are changing.

The fact that they ran runny on the same day just makes it so much sweeter.  Could GMDM wave his magic wand and make Berroa disappear before the clock strikes midnight?  How many days til pitchers and catchers?

by chukar on Dec 7, 2006 6:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I can't believe the Royals are
making news for doing something right!  Yes, Meche at $11mil/yr is overpaying but we have all agreed in the past that KC has to overspend in order to attract serviceable players beyond the Minkys and Elartons of MLB.  Meche is young and can pitch for the next 5 years in KC.  He is the kind of guy who you can build a staff around.  Maybe not an ace but solid.  I like the move!!  Bannister and Meche will take lots of pressure off Greinke, Hochevar and other young guys coming up from AAA and AA.  

I also like the move of Soria instead of Hernandez.  Runny had his shot to be a top of the line starting rotation guy due to his inability of be dedicated.  KC is better off without him.  He may have needed the wakeup call that can only come in a place besides KC.  Wouldn't be the first guy to improve after leaving the Royals.  Anyway, the Rule 5 pick is low cost, high potential and is 22 years old.  For 2007, we can carry a guy like that and let him mop up if necessary.  

by daveyork on Dec 7, 2006 6:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Buddy spends his old time baseball guy cred
GMDM gives Buddy credit for convincing Meche to sign here (oh yeah, that and the 55M).  For those who don't like the sign, go ahead and pile on.

by chukar on Dec 7, 2006 7:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

well
Its not my money, so I'm not going to say that I don't like the sign. I do think that there is a significant probability (around 50%) that this will look like a terrible contract in retrospect. I think there is a small probability that this will look like a brilliant contract in retrospect.  

What I find most interesting is all the fans who think that the Royals will somehow have bought some respect by this contract ... we're getting a league-average starter (maybe) with a serious injury history, one who pitched well at the pitcher-friendly park in Seattle but not at all so well on the road.  And we are overpaying for him, even by the standards of this year's market. There is a very good chance that what we are buying is even more disrespect from the rest of the league, if Meche can't stay healthy or doesn't elevate his game.  

This was a very risky move, with a small probability of a high upside but a big probability of major downside.  As a fan, I'm going to enjoy rooting for Meche, and I'm going to hope that Moore knows more than the numbers say, but ... yikes.

by tfn on Dec 7, 2006 8:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Am I the only one not happy about this?
Not to be all Debbie Downer, but this looks to me like an Allard Baird move, just on a bigger scale.  We're going to pay $11m/year for a pitcher who is, at best, slightly better than average.  That Bannister dude from the Mets will probably put up comparable numbers at 5% of the price.  

It's not like we're going to have a $90m payroll in a couple years, so this looks to me like a dumb signing to "send a message" or "make a point" or whatever.  So now Petro and the fans will be happy for a few months until July when Meche is 6-7 with a 4.98 ERA.

I guess I'm glad that Glass is willing to spend some money, but it doesn't get us anywhere if we spend the money on guys like Meche.  Save the cash now, build up the farm system, and make a move for a star in a few years when we have a chance at winning 80 games.  

Gaithright, LaRue, Meche.  To me, Moore seems like Allard with a bigger budget.  

by Hippstar on Dec 7, 2006 8:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

some ways yes, some ways no
it does look like last year's allard to me
only, i could never see the point of signing Elarton/Mays/Redman to short term deals... so while signing Meche to a 5 year deal is in some sense dumber, its also smarter, because, who knows, we may have a good team in 3-4 years

it kinda works both ways, bad and good in my humble opinion...

now gathright, don't get me started

by royalsreview on Dec 7, 2006 9:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Question
Have they mentioned who their taking off the roster to make room for Meche?
lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Dec 7, 2006 9:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Move the fences back further!
That reminded me of an odd friend of mind who suggested that a team like the Royals try to create a homefield advantage by doing something really unique. He suggested making CF about 500 feet, the power alleys about 450, and straight down the line about 400. Along with that, go to a 4 man OF and a 3 man IF full time, make sure your OFs are all absolute speed burners, and make sure everybody on your team is a line drive, gap type hitter with speed. For the pitching staff, acquire nothing but extreme Flyball pitchers. Mix together, sit back, and watch the fun!

Of course, when I reminded him that last time I checked you still had to play half of your games on the road...

This same odd friend also still swears that the greatest travesty ever committed by a commissioner in sports was when Eddie Gaedel was banned by baseball from playing after his famous pinch hit walk back in the thirties(?) I think it was the thirties. He swears that such a player would make a perfect 25th man pinch hitter on the right time, and that banning him was nothing short of discrimination. Actually, on the discrimination part, he's probably right. His biggest argument is that if Gaedel is not allowed, then any basketball player in the NBA taller than 6' 6" or so should be banned as well.

For my daughter, who has probably guessed by now, yes, I'm referring to Roger Linhardt here.

by loyal2s dad on Dec 8, 2006 4:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I've thought about this a little before...
but this is the most genious thing anyone has ever come up with...ladies and gentleman, the next Cosmo Kramer
Buy the ticket, take the ride.

by PhattStairs on Dec 10, 2006 8:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

POLO GROUNDS it is!
60% of the time it works every time!

by greggagneHOF on Dec 9, 2006 5:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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