Kosuke Fukudome, the Royals new Outfielder?

NYRoyal's diary about the KC Budget for next year has resulted in some of us speculating which second-tier free agents the Royals might want to pursue.  One player who has come to my attention recently is Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome.

The more I look over Kosuke Fukudome's career numbers the more I like him.  He is an outright free agent now so the Royals can sign him without bidding for his rights.  He has already expressed interest in playing in the States.  He will be 31 years old, which means he will probably start to decline statistically in the next couple of years, but he is a major league ready outfielder right now.

I have read that Japanese baseball falls between AA and AAA level, and maybe that is true.  Anyway, here are Fukudome's last three seasons:

2005 - 515 at bats, .328/.430/.590, 28 HR, 103 RBI, 93/128 BB/K.
2006 - 496 at bats, .351/.438/.653, 31 HR, 104 RBI, 94/113 BB/K.
2007 - 269 at bats, .294/.443/.520, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 69/66 BB/K.

He missed half of the 2007 season due to injury.  He had a surgery to remove bone fragments from his right elbow.  This is a concern.  Normal recovery from his surgery is two months, so he should be ready to play right now, but we just do not know if the injury will decrease his long term effectiveness.  I don't know what not to like in his numbers.  Amazing OBP, Great Power, sage-like patience at the plate.   He has won the Japanese equivalent of the gold glove four times as a right fielder.  He apparently has a strong and accurate arm and works hard at his defense.

The Royals opening day left fielder in 2008?

Assuming he is healthy, I think he might be the answer to the LF vacuum.   I have no idea if him coming to KC is realistic at all, but I hope Moore is looking into obtaining his services.  According to Armchair GM Fukudome was hoping for a deal in the 4YR/$40+M range.  Armchair GM says several teams are interested in Fukudome at that price - Boston, Texas, Seattle and San Fransico.  Why not the Royals?  If the Royals cannot obtain Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones or Adam Dunn, Fukudome looks like as good a second tier outfielder as will be available.  And $10M/yr is pretty well the going rate for good but not great outfielders.

Here is Fukudome's scouting report from that same site:

Fukudome has doubles-power and will likely put up a high OBP in the Majors, but won't slug a lot of home runs. Defensively, he's best suited for right field, but could plug into center if need be.  Mike Plugh, of Baseball Prospectus, says that "Fukudome is tailor-made for the Major Leagues. [...] He has patience as well as power to the gaps, a recipe for success, especially if he chooses to play in a ballpark with a spacious outfield." Plugh warns that Fukudome won't hit more than 20 homers, "but 50 doubles is not out of the question[, and] when compared to his [Japanese] peers, [...] his habitual .400+ OBP."

One projection system estimates that a 2007 version of Fukudome would put up a .300/.375/.500 line in the Majors.

I'm probably dreaming.  I have no reason to think this will pan out.  I am sure Dayton Moore religiously reads Royals Review.  I hope he clicks on this diary and thinks about the possibility.  For whatever reason I have thought for a while that Emil Brown will probably not come back to the Royals next year and instead he will sign a comfortable contract to play in Japan.  Why do I think this, no clue.  It just seems right.  Maybe the Royals can pull off a virtual swap by signing the good outfielder and sending Emil east to replace him.

Let me take you one more step into dream land.  Fukudome brings his bat and great defense to RF.  This allows Teahen to move to CF.  This would free up DeJesus for trade or LF.  If DeJesus is traded, Huber or Butler could play LF.  This allows the Royals to resign Sweeney and give Shealy another crack at 1B.  The ripple effect of picking up a good defensive outfielder with a strong bat raises the entire line-up to a new level.  Basically it would allow the Royals to substitute in Shealy/Huber/Sweeney for Costa/Gathright.  Nothing but good can come from something like that.

If the Royals are going to make another big signing this off season I would not mind at all seeing Fukudome brought in.  For the Royals to trump Seattle, Boston and San Fransico (clubs you would assume would be more attractive to a Japanese player) they might have to follow the Meche route and offer one more year than the other teams are willing to go.  If so, is Fukudome worth 5YR/$50M?  Hmmmm.  Well, it isn't my money, and I would rather see it on the field in Kauffman than sitting in Glass' fat ol' wallet.