Dayton Moore Has No Clue How To Build An Offense
The title appears controversial, sure. It's not exactly my viewpoint, and I'm sure it's not the viewpoint of the majority of the RR faithful as well. I will readily admit that I, in fact, may have even violated Journalism Rule #101: No Purposefully Misleading Titles! However, the title is certainly an argument that could - and has - been generated among the most cynical of the Royals fanbase.
Approximately one and a half years into his tenure with the Royals, Dayton Moore has failed to capitalize off an incredibly poor offense that reared its ugly head almost nightly under the latter part of Allard Baird's tenure (R.I.P.) One must assume that inheriting a historically awful baseball team is an easy task, as many believe it is not difficult to transform a terrible ballclub into merely a mediocre one, or to a lesser extent a mediocre one into an average one, and so forth. In turn, a new General Manager, particularly one from a successful organization such as Atlanta, often can conveniently assume a "hero" status among the fanbase who have endured consistent losing under an in-grossly-over-his-head G.M. By focusing on this article, we must first examine another important aspect of the game in which Moore has demonstrated a keen knowledge - and ability to understand and develop in "X" ballclub - PITCHING!
By obtaining a talented yet obscure Rule V draft pick (Soria, 2.48 ERA), trading for a projected #4 pitcher (Bannister, 3.87 ERA), nabbing a relatively cheap/low-risk free agent relief pitcher (Riske, 2.45 ERA), landing a legitimate #3 starter who was still young and had the potential to coax his "stuff" into ace-caliber (Meche, 3.67 ERA), and acquiring a still high-upside, at-times dominant reliever (Dotel, 3.91 ERA) who, given his monetary and veteran status, would most certainly be traded at the trade deadline, Moore improved the pitching staff by leaps and bounds within the time frame of but several months. Moore's improvements in the pitching staff showed in the first half of 2007, as the staff ERA improved by over one full run. The ERA+, in turn, improved from 83 to 104 and the strikeout-to-walk ratio improved from roughly 4.5:3 (904:637) to nearly 2:1 (993:520). Compare the results of our pitching staffs from one year to the next:
2006 Pitching Stats: 5.65 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 213 HRA, 1648 HA
2007 Pitching Stats: 4.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 168 HRA, 1547 HA
If improving a pitching staff was so easy for Dayton, perhaps improving the offense was - as much of a `walk in the park'? Perhaps not for Dayton Moore. Compare our offensive results from 2006 to 2007:
- .271 BA, .332 OBP, .411 SLG, 124 HR, 757 RS, 1515 H
- .261 BA, .322 OBP, .388 SLG, 102 HR, 706 RS, 1447 H
Shealy's Minor League+MLB Numbers
Affeldt's Declining ERA year-by-year:
2003: 3.93
2004: 4.95
2005: 5.26
2006 thru July 31: 6.20
Although critics deemed the Shealy trade an overwhelming success for the Royals two Julys ago, he has since struck out not only twice a day on the baseball diamond, but also a time or two by RoyalsRetro in a Plaza-area K.C. restaurant (which, mind you, is damned near impossible to do). Ever heard of the completely juvenile term "sucking on ice?" Shealy most certainly did so in 2007, enough to be deemed a tremendous bust and enough for even the most casual of fan to deem the July 31, 2006 deal an enormous disappointment for Colorado. Compare Shealy's results below:
2006: .277/.338/.451, 7 HR, 37 RBI in 193 AB's with KC (9 more in Colorado)
2007: .221/.286/.308, 3 HR, 21 RBI in 172 AB's with KC
Even beyond nabbing a high-upside first baseman, Moore's work was still cut out for him in order to transform our offense from mediocre levels in `06 to perhaps average or above average levels in `07. Or was it?
At age 27, David DeJesus was entering his first prime season, and a season in which most youngsters are expected to break through offensively.
2004: .287/.360/.402
2005: .293/.359/.445
2006: .295/.364/.446
2007: .260/.351/.372
That clearly didn't happen.
Emil Brown had enjoyed two years of above-average offensive and, as JQ graciously emphasized in Sunday's post, average defensive seasons in '05 and '06.
Offense:
2005: 113 OPS+ (100 is average)
2006: 109 OPS+
2007: 68 OPS+
Mark Teahen raked baseballs like it was his job in the second half of 2006 (okay, it theoretically was his job), and like DeJesus, was just entering the prime of his career (age 26). Was it the rust from his offseason arm surgery? Unfortunately, that's a question we don't have the answer to.
2006: .290/.357/.517 overall
2007: .285/.353/.410
Many scouts projected John Buck to be a 20-25 HR, .450+ slugging everyday catcher in the big leagues. Hey, good enough for me! Except that Buck was primed for such a breakout season in 2007. Although Buck showed exceptional promise in April, that promise turned sour by mid-May and never fully resurfaced. Still, his 2007 , numberwise, was only an ever-so-slight improvement on his previous two seasons.
2005: .242/.287/.389, 12 HR
2006: .245/.306/.396, 11 HR
2007: .222/.308/.429, 18 HR, just two HR's in August and September
Although he had never proven to be an everyday player, Ross Gload had showed promise in limited duty with the White Sox. Perhaps he could carry his with Kansas City as a platoon and part-time first baseman and corner outfielder.
2004: .321/.375/.429
2006: .327/.354/.462
As Royals fans, we discovered fairly quickly that real-life baseball doesn't exactly reflect MVP Baseball 2005, where productive part-timers can magically become legitimate RBI-men overnight.
Over on the other hot corner, Gordon began 2007 in such a tremendous slump, that his offensive "damage" (a relative term) done in April and May would have been almost impossible for him to compensate for in the final four months. Although Gordon regained his swing, he finished the season with lukewarm results.
Gordon's 2007: .247/.314/.411, 15 HR, 60 RBI in 543 AB
Gordon's 2006 numbers in Wichita: .325/.427/.588, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 486 AB
But perhaps an uber-productive rookie season is too much to ask for?
Although, not exactly to our liking, we have studied the offensive numbers from 2007, gaze over these statistics one more time:
2007: .261 BA, .322 OBP, .388 SLG, 102 HR, 706 RS, 1447 H
Fact: Emil Brown led the team with a mere 63 RBI's
Fact: John Buck led the team with but 18 HR's
Fact: With DeJesus, Buck, Pena, and Teahen entering their prime, the Royals responded by finishing dead last in the American League in slugging percentage and home runs, and second to last in on-base percentage, walks, and runs scored.
With a completely unprotected and fast-declining Mike Sweeney as our cleanup hitter from July 2004 through the final days of Baird's tenure, Moore had every opportunity to acquire meaningful protection in the lineup, either through the form of a veteran free agent or a low-risk/high-upside player. Sadly, neither happened, and the Royals were stuck with virtually the same team that ended 2006, with the additions of a below average first baseman (Ross Gload), and one and a half emerging young prospects (Gordon and Billy Butler for approximately 100 games).
Instead of improving our power numbers and plate discipline, we faltered. Which brings us to another fascinating topic: plate discipline. Virtually every stathead, from Bill James to Baseball Prospectus to Rob Neyer, have proven over the years with overwhelming evidence, that plate discipline helps offense overall for any team - from the slugging Bronx Bombers to our own Boys in Blue.
I mean, remember that excruciatingly long list of obscure pitchers who had shut down the Royals this season, allowing an insubordinately few amount of walks and lasting, like, seven-plus innings? Yeah, that one.
Jon Lester
Scott Baker
.........
Forget it. The list is simply too long.
Given that our offense included once-heralded Moneyball player Mark Teahen, plate discipline extraordinaire David DeJesus, the always patient Esteban German and the mostly patient John Buck all entering their prime, there was no reason for us innocent fans to witness such a dropoff - and dramatic embarrassment overall - in overall plate discipline. Given our lack of power, there was no reason the Royals should have demonstrated such a "hack-tastic" offensive approach in 2007.
Nonetheless, these quotes from fearless leader Buddy Bell (now enthusiastically helping the White Sox in situational bunting and hit-and-run strategies), seemed to indicate a "Be Aggressive or Die!" approach.
"For us to be the kind of team we want to be, we've got to figure out how to approach pitchers like we've seen the first eight or nine games," Bell said. "I think that is a more aggressive approach early in the count.""We have to be more aggressive early in the count. I keep saying that, all the time, and I hope eventually it will start to sink in. We take too many early fastballs. We're a young team, and the only way we're going to find out about our swings is to be aggressive."
"I think we tend to be too particular with our strike zone. And we just have to be more aggressive.
"We refuse to be aggressive offensively," Bell said. "It's driving me crazy.
"We were not aggressive," Bell said. "We talked about that before. We let strikes go and we swing at balls."
"The more aggressive he is, the better he's going to be," Bell said. ... (on Berroa)
"This is the big leagues and you've got to be aggressive up there."
(Note: If anyone would like a link to each of these articles, do not hesitate to contact me personally at JRaider2005@yahoo.com. Or simply do a Google search of "Buddy Bell" and "aggressive" and you'll find a gaquadzagillion results).
Either way, The Royals offense was as meagerly power and OBP-thirsty as it was utterly pathetic in 2007 (which is redundant, no?). Perhaps some of the Royals' inabilities with the lumber fall square on the shoulders of Buddy Bell and our hitting coach Mike Barnett. However, those philosophies have to fall back again - square (or as South Park's Cartman says, squaaaaihhh) upon the shoulders of Dayton Moore.
Nonetheless, it will be an exciting offseason for Moore and our Boys in Blue. Moore will, once again, have plenty of work to do to improve our offensive output. Will he seek players via the Free Agent route (Jones? Rowand?), the young and cheap route (Francisco? Quentin?) or the perhaps the Japanese route (Fukudome?). All that's crystal clear is that Moore needs to try something.
And hopefully this time around, that something will work.
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38 comments
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Great post
And for the record, I didn't strike out Shealy, I got him to pop up. ;)
by RoyalsRetro on
Oct 29, 2007 4:04 PM EDT
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I guess I'm one of the cynical ones
Teahen
Buck
DeJesus
Butler
Gordon
Sweeney
Brown
German
Sanders
Grudz
Moore Additions
Pena
Gathright
Shealy
Gload
Larue
Smith
Cortez
If you take Gload out of the equation, every one of those guys finished with lower OPS's than any of Baird's guys, with the lone exception of Vlademil, who still managed to out-OPS three of them, and lead the team in RBIs (for whatever that's worth).
Of course, one could make the argument that the reason the Royals were able to pitch so much better this year was because we brought in these supposed defensive wizards.
I would posit that the reason we saw marked improvement on the pitching side of the ball was because we brought in better pitchers.
There's the old adage that pitching and defense wins championships. That may be true, but it certainly doesn't get you to the playoffs (not by itself, at any rate.) I'm still optimistic that Moore will realize this and start bringing in some bats. I'm also still optimistic that Hillman will come to the realization that OF Defense is probably not as valuable as putting points on the board. Time will tell.
by marbotty on
Oct 30, 2007 3:14 AM EDT
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dayton on offense scares me
by DyeFan187 on
Oct 29, 2007 4:10 PM EDT
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Nice post...
One thing is for sure, my index finger trembles before I press the post button, knowing my work will be judged against RoyalsReview, NHZ, JQ, RoyalsRetro, and RoyalsNation (I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody).
by Cleveland on
Oct 29, 2007 4:36 PM EDT
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I hear you Cleveland
In regards to offense, I think part of it is development/part bad luck. Gordon and Butler both made significant leaps this year from AA, and I think both are canidates for 30HR/100RBI seasons in the not so distant future. Teahen/DDJ can't be as lackluster as they were this year. Shealy is another wildcard. He has potential if he can stay healthy, maybe a Kotchman like rebound? It will be an active offseason. The Tigers already traded for Edgar Renteria, they didn't waste any time. Hopefully, the Royals can get an additional bat or two amid all the action.
by lordbyronk on
Oct 29, 2007 5:05 PM EDT
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NYRoyal is quite deserving as well
by Cleveland on
Oct 30, 2007 10:07 AM EDT
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Opppsss...ssss
by grudz69 on
Oct 30, 2007 5:28 PM EDT
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No judgement!
Anytime you think I know what I'm talking about, just remember I'm the same guy who was so excited when the Royals acquired Jason LaRue.
by James Quinn on
Oct 29, 2007 5:49 PM EDT
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Hey
by lordbyronk on
Oct 29, 2007 6:43 PM EDT
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Amen
by MileHighKCfan on
Oct 30, 2007 5:12 PM EDT
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I do have hope that next year the offense will
I guess I am basing my optimism on nothing more than thinking the Royals can't be quite so unlucky two years in a row. Maybe my problem is that I am blaming the horrible production on bad luck.
Nice article.
by James Quinn on
Oct 29, 2007 4:38 PM EDT
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Good post, RN...
As for the offense, I agree with JQ. All those guys can't slump at the same time again. Even if they do, I have a feeling that Hillfire will be there to encourage them in a very constructive way to do better. Go Blue....
by grudz69 on
Oct 29, 2007 5:25 PM EDT
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I agree with yall.
by TXroyal on
Oct 29, 2007 6:40 PM EDT
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I'm still here partner
by royaldaddy on
Oct 29, 2007 6:43 PM EDT
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Busy????
by grudz69 on
Oct 29, 2007 10:24 PM EDT
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nice summation
Dayton's moves were intended to focus on pitching and let the hitters develop. It's easier to find replacemnt hitters quickly in a pinch (playoff run - and we're not there). Give him a second offseason to come through, before we judge. I think it's fair to say that this offense lacks quality and has much marginal quantity. Make some moves.
Dayton's offensive moves so far:
LaRue - meaningless, as a backup catcher on the cheap. Nice try.
Pena - replacing Berroa, a wash because of a great season by Pena. Defensively great.
Shealy - great in 06, lost in 07. Made sense to acquire.
Gload - backup, singles hitter. Did Fine. Did Explode.
by David Howards Legacy on
Oct 29, 2007 5:37 PM EDT
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gload needs to explode his way...
he's 31 and ok but not great... we need to convince some brian sabean type they need his veteran presence
by royalsreview on
Oct 29, 2007 7:45 PM EDT
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Hopefully he can be a good throw-in
by NYRoyal on
Oct 29, 2007 7:53 PM EDT
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Brian Sabean
by Moose Tacos on
Oct 30, 2007 8:54 AM EDT
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It is hard to pass judgment on DM at this point
After achieving all of that in one year, I can't complain too much that he hasn't completely improved the offense as well. It takes some time to turn an organization completely around.
Were there a bunch of great FA and trade opportunities out there that Moore could have done and he just sat on his hands? None that I know of. He has struck gold with trades and FA so far. Mostly that has been on the pitching side. I'm looking for more work on the position player side this offseason. We'll see what happens.
by NYRoyal on
Oct 29, 2007 6:05 PM EDT
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I was about to post the exact same thing...
I'd also like to take a moment to agree with the other posters that RR is an incredible site. I've been here for just over a year, and check in every day. I always learn something. Or laugh. Either way, that's the mark of a good read in my book. Nothing shows this more then the last week: I've been away for 5 days getting married, and have spent my first few hours back at work reading everything posted since last Wednesday. Wonderful stuff. David Howard! Keep up the great work everyone.
by nkkc on
Oct 30, 2007 11:41 AM EDT
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Congratulations
by NYRoyal on
Oct 30, 2007 12:26 PM EDT
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A lot of unfortunate coincidences
Thus, to blame Dayton for everything going wrong that did go wrong with the offense this year is not rational, especially when pitching was the first and foremost priority last year. Let's hold off some judgment until next year, shall we?
by CentralChamps2009 on
Oct 29, 2007 6:09 PM EDT
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hopefully at least someone watched the WS
the red sox actually didn't hit a huge number of HRs
they got on-base and won, and it wasn't because of jacoby ellsbury's speed either
OBP is life
by royalsreview on
Oct 29, 2007 8:39 PM EDT
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RoyalsNation
by NYRoyal on
Oct 29, 2007 8:46 PM EDT
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i think dayton moore
by smarsh on
Oct 29, 2007 8:48 PM EDT
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Thanks for the compliments, guys....
I'll give NYRoyal and possibly others that the title is a little misleading and unnecessary. Maybe Dayton Moore has yet to demonstrate offensive-building skills?
Either way, I'm a Dayton Moore fan and I believe that he's worked wonders with our pitching staff, needless to say. I expect our pitching to regress next year but our offense to naturally improve as DeJesus, Teahen, and the like rebound from off-seasons, and Gordon and Butler continue to develop their power numbers.
by Royals Nation on
Oct 29, 2007 10:35 PM EDT
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Good Point
by philofthenorth on
Oct 29, 2007 11:47 PM EDT
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only thing is...
by royalsreview on
Oct 30, 2007 12:18 AM EDT
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We Can Only Hope
by philofthenorth on
Oct 30, 2007 12:24 AM EDT
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Barnett
by cookierojas73 on
Oct 30, 2007 8:12 AM EDT
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i think many of us feel that way
by royalsreview on
Oct 30, 2007 11:22 AM EDT
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Was the problem Barnett or Bell?
"We want guys to be selective, work the count, work deeper into counts..."
http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20030627083511999
At that time (about 1/2 way through the season) the Jays were leading the league in OBA, and about every other offensive stat, but they had Delgado et al.
Also, from the same interview he talks about swinging at the first pitch if it's a hitter's pitch, not a pitcher's pitch.
So if the batting coach says "be selective" and the manager says "be aggressive"...?
by Yoda on
Oct 30, 2007 1:55 PM EDT
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interesting... maybe i can breathe after all
by FireBell on
Oct 30, 2007 3:06 PM EDT
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I guess it comes down to the fact that
by mazoboom on
Oct 30, 2007 8:07 PM EDT
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