Will These Gentlemen Sport Royal Blue In '08? Perhaps Only The Baseball Gods Know!

Every offseason, a new array of fresh Free Agent, soon-to-be-wealthy sirloin enters the market.  Most teams rumored to sign these aspiring moneymen are mostly large-markets, such as New York (Yankees and Mets), Boston, Los Angeles (Angels and Dodgers), and the Cubs.  As with Gil Meche last season, every once in awhile, a money-hungry player moseys our direction.  Needless to say, since the strike of 1994, the Royals have never demonstrated the financial commitment necessary to land a "big fish" fresh from the Strait of Gibraltar most winters.  However, with David Glass giving G.M. Dayton Moore unrestricted control of virtually all managerial moves and personnel decisions (within a set budget, of course), perhaps Moore should study and consider this list of Free Agent talent soon to enter a market near you.

Many fans consider the offseason an boyishly optimistic time because the possibility of their respective ballclubs to be improved is overwhelming.  There they sit - the Aaron Rowand's, the Andruw Jones's, the Barry Zito's, the Vlad Guerrero's.  Some free agent signees become overwhelming, dream-come-true successes for "x" team (Manny Ramirez, 2001), and others become colossal failures (Carl Pavano, 2005).  Nonetheless, come Spring Training, most (but not all) fans ultimately feel that their teams are ultimately better off than the year before, without knowing that the players who improved considerably the year prior were likely to regress to some degree.  Royals fans fall victim to this particular mindset more often than not.  As far back as 1997, many of us felt our team would improve significantly because of the Herk Robinson snaggings of Jeff King, Jay Bell, and Chili(Bean) Davis.  Ultimately, that spring anticipation quickly turned steamin' sour - the team lost 97 games that season.  Several teams ride success off shrewd, low-key signings (Red Sox and David Ortiz), while other teams flop considerably from exorbitant signings (Giants and Barry Zito).  Last season, "GMDM" flexed his muscles in the Free Agent pitching department - landing several low-key free agents and one "big fish" who managed to become successful.

That carries us to this offseason.  As I emphasized in my previous column, Dayton Moore has one set task from roughly mid-November until late-February: improve the ballclub.  Keep in mind that Dayton Moore can - and should - explore a number of avenues for improving our ballclub within our usual limited means.  He can delve into the Minor League free agent market or pull an under-the-radar move, as Allard Baird did time and time again.  He can swap veteran potential for young potential - as he did in the Octavio Dotel-for-Kyle Davies trade last summer.  But what better way than to add to our current nucleus than by snagging a few of these big-money hopefuls?  Julius Caesar conquered territory using the phrase "Venni Veddi Vicci".  Perhaps Dayton Moore can be our Julius Caesar as gossip season swirls.

Listed below are the select elite (or...semi-elite?) in Free Agent players, their 2007 statistics, several other notable numbers, a general description of that particular player, and their projected asking price.  Note that the consummately self-important Alex Rodriguez is not among those listed, for perhaps obvious reasons.  I will also not include Curt Schilling, as he has publicly and officially declared that the Royals are not one of the teams he will end up with in 2007[sarcasm]

Risk-Reward Key:
1/5: Low
2/5: Fair
3/5: Moderate
4/5: Above Average
5/5: High

Note:  Explanations on the final few Free Agents to come.  :)

Just what are the chances of the studly Andruw Jones ending up in a K.C. uniform?

OF - Andruw Jones  2008 Opening Day Age: 30
2007:  .222/.311/.413/.724, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 572 AB's, 70 BB, 138 K
Overall value:  C
Risk:  5/5
Reward:  5/5
Price:  4 Y/$60MM
Summary:  A once prize franchise player who has seen his offensive skills decline substantially and defensive skills decline moderately over the past two seasons.  Given that he has experienced a drop over his last two seasons, I'm hesitant to deem his lackluster '07 all-around performance an abberation.  The bottom line is that Jones is a better offensive player than he showed in 2007.  Although he strikes out considerably, he has moderate plate discipline.  He is still a plus-asset in the field, as he covers ground and has a moderate but declining cannon.
2008 Projection: .255/.340/.460/.800, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 530 AB's, 60 BB, 140 K
RN Says:  Offer no more than 3 years.

OF - Aaron Rowand 2008 O.D. Age:  30
2007:  .309/.374/.515/.889, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 612 AB's, 47 BB, 119 K
Overall value:  C-
Risk:  5/5
Reward:  4/5
Price:  4 Y/$55MM
Summary:  Rowand is a late-bloomer who enjoyed a definite career season in the National League in 2007.  Although he has hit well before (.310/.361/.544 for the ChiSox in 2004), Rowand has always benefitted from being surrounded by a still-potent offense.  The White Sox scored the third most runs in the AL in 2004 and the Phillies scored the most runs in the AL last year.  At age 30, he's on the decline, so he won't repeat his marvelous performance of last season.  However, he could still provide as an above-average centerfielder, but will probably have to convert to a corner outfield position by 2009 due to declining speed and range (his SB and SB% totals have decreased every year since 2004).  Think of Raul Ibanez with a little more speed.
2008 Projection:  .280/.340/.440/.780, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 580 AB's, 50 BB, 125 K
RN Says:  Stop at 4Y/$40M

OF - Torii Hunter 2008 O.D. Age:  31
2007:  .287/.334/.505/.839, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 600 AB's, 40 BB, 101 K
Overall value:  C
Risk:  3/5
Reward:  4/5
Price:  5 Y/$65MM
Summary:  The prospect of acquiring Hunter doesn't excite me because of the reasons behind what he'll be commanding.  Over the past nine seasons, Hunter has been the centerpiece of a later-revived Twins offense.  Hunter has exceptional, but declining, range and arm in the outfield.  He has never particularly been a high-OBP guy, which is worrisome.  In fact, if he doesn't hit above .260, he can actually be more of a liability to your team than one would believe.  Nonetheless, he provides above-average value as a centerfielder, but at age 32, is now in his declining years.
2008 Projection:  .270/.325/.440/.765, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 600 AB's, 40 BB, 115 K
RN Says:  Make an initial offer and see the market.  Otherwise, pass.

OF - Geoff Jenkins 2008 O.D. Age:  33
2007:  .255/.319/.471/.790, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 420 AB's, 32 BB, 116 K
Overall value:  B
Risk:  1/5
Reward:  5/5
Price:  2 Y/$12MM
Summary:  Jenkins has battled injury problems throughout the past two seasons, and at this point in his career can only provide slightly above-average results for a corner outfielder.  His OBP took a tremendous drop in 2007, but enjoyed a nice little rebound in power (his SLG improved 40 points and he hit 4 more home runs).  His price will come relatively cheap, and if he could hit .265/.330/.450 at $7 million, that's definitely a start.
2008 Projection:  .260/.320/.460/.780, 18 HR, 55 RBI, 400 AB's, 27 BB, 100 K
RN Says:  Go for it until the end.

OF - Milton Bradley 2008 O.D. Age: 29
2007:  .306/.402/.545/.947, 13 HR, 37 RBI, 209 AB's, 31 BB, 41 K
Overall value:  B+
Risk:  1/5
Reward:  4/5
Price:  2 Y/$14MM
Summary:  One Free Agent that I have become increasingly excited about in the previous few days is Sir Milton: He-Captain King of Anger and Fury.  Besides throwing plastic beer bottles at innocent fans and screaming in the faces of countless umpire for reasonable strike-three calls over the previous seven years, he's actually become a decent little ballplayer, albeit one with a grotesque history of injury problems.  Bradley is every bit capable of posting an All-Star season if he can just stay healthy, and next year is only his age 30 season.  Bradley will likely come cheaper since he'll be sidelined with an oblique tear until probably June.
2008 Projection:  .290/.380/.470/.850, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 400 AB's, 50 BB, 70 K
RN Says:  GO FOR IT (enthusiastically)! :)

OF - Kosuke Fukudome 2008 O.D. Age:  30
2007 in Japan:  .351/.438/.653/1.091, 31 HR, 104 RBI, 496 AB, 76 BB, 94 K
Overall value:  C+
Risk:  4/5
Reward:  5/5
Price:  4 Y/$55MM
Summary:  Fukudome enjoyed an overwhelming career season in '07 for the Chunichi Dragons.  Perhaps Moore and Trey Hillman can coax Kosuke into signing with K.C., especially with the Japanese connection.  Kansas City has never been a market for import players, and Moore has demonstrated a keen ability to think "outside of the box".  Why not start now?  The downside to Fukudome is that 2007 was an abberation.  He'll likely never be more than a 18-20 HR threat in the Major Leagues, but a 50-double season really isn't out of the question.
2008 MLB Projection: .300/.360/.480, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 550 AB, 60 BB, 120 K
RN Says: Go for it!

OF - Mike Cameron  2008 O.D. Age: 35
2007:  .242/.328/.431/.759, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 571 AB, 67 BB, 160 K
Risk:  3/5
Reward:  4/5
Price:  2 Y/$16MM
Summary:  Cameron will be 35 next season, but has actually held up steady over the last two seasons in an otherwise mediocre lineup and stadium not exactly conducive to hitting.  Oh, sure, last year wasn't world-beating, but if he can hit 21 HRs and slug a combined .455 over the last two seasons in San Diego, maybe he's worth attempting to land?  Still, that OPS took a nice hit last season (-80).
2008 Prediction:  .255/.340/.420, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 520 AB, 55 BB, 130 K
RN Says:  Stop at one year, even if he'll likely get 2 or 3 years, minimum.

SP - Bartolo Colon 2008 O.D. Age: 32
2007:  6.34 ERA, 99.3 IP, 18 GS, 29 BB, 76 K, 1.62 WHIP
Risk:  3/5
Reward:  5/5
Price:  1 Y/$8MM ($12-14MM in incentives)
Summary:  Since winning the Cy Young award in 2005, Big Bartolo has been as injury prone as ever in L.A.  He's a power-pitcher who doesn't walk many, and could be a nice gamble at a short-term incentive laden deal.
2008 Prediction:  Healthy or not, it depends...the variance is wide, indeed
RN Says:  Offer him a rich, one-year, incentive-laden contract.  As in Buddy Bell, be aggressive.

SP - Freddy Garcia 2008 O.D. Age: 32
2007:  5.90 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 58 IP, 19 BB, 50 K
Risk:  3/5
Reward:  4/5
Price:  1 Y/$6MM ($8-9MM in incentives)
Summary:  Like Colon, Garcia could make a nice gamble, but declined significantly in 2006 before he struggled mightily in '07 and eventually landed on the D.L. and missed most of the season with shoulder sugery.  Perhaps from moving to the National League, Garcia's K/9 rebounded nicely last season, and he's never been known to walk too many batters.  He could give "x" team solid #3-type results in an injury-free season.  Garcia would make a nice gamble, in my humble opinion.
2008 Prediction:  Anyone's guess....at a healthy status, he's due to regress
RN Says:  Go for a one-year, incentive-laden contract.

SP - Livan Hernandez 2008 O.D. Age: 33
2007:  4.93 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 204.1 IP, 79 BB, 90 K
Risk:  4/5
Reward:  2/5
Price:  3 Y/$22MM
Summary:  Being a once-Cuban defect, and this is just speculation.....but Mighty Livan is probably older than 33.  Livan has posted a combined 4.3 or so ERA the past two seasons, and his K:BB rate has declined dramatically over the past two seasons.  Livan might be worth signing to a cheap, one-year contract, but otherwise...pass.
2008 Prediction:  4.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 180 IP, 85 BB, 120 K
RN Says:  Make a cheap, initial offer.  Otherwise, pass.

SP - Kenny Rogers 2008 O.D. Age: 43
2007: 4.43 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 63 IP, 25 BB, 36 K, 11 GS
Risk:  4/5
Reward:  5/5
Price:  2 Y/$16MM (incentives $3-4MM/yr.)
Summary:  The Gambler has stated recently that he wants to either return to Detroit next season, or retire.  I've long held the theory that he could provide solid, but not spectacular results, when healthy.  Like Moyer, he could probably pitch effectively until he's 45 or 46, so I have no reason to believe that, if healthy, he couldn't provide, in 2007, similar results to 2005.  Low K/9, but great K:BB, and an awesome changeup.
2008 Prediction:  4.50 ERA, 25 GS, 140 IP, 55 BB, 80 K
RN Says:  Outside looking in, but make an initial offer.

SP - Matt Clement  2008 O.D. Age: 33
2007: Did not play (injured)
Risk:  2/5
Reward:  4/5
Price:  1 Y/$5MM (incentives $7-8MM)
Summary:  Once a vastly underrated pitcher with the Chicago Cubs, Clement has almost literally fallen off the face of the planet the previous two seasons.  He missed all of last season and most of 2006 with injuries.  His results were terrible in 2006, but he could come amazingly cheap.
2008 Prediction:  Anyone's guess.  If healthy, he could provide #3 results
RN Says:  It's a low-risk, high-payoff trade, something the Royals are fit to try.  At 1-year/$3MM, go for it.

SP - Carlos Silva 2008 O.D. Age:  28
2007:  4.19 ERA, 202 IP, 33 GS, 36 BB, 89 K, 1.31 WHIP,
Overall value:  B-
Risk:  3/5
Reward:  5/5
Price:  5 Y/$50MM
Summary:  Silva is perhaps the Golden Royale of the batch of aspiring moneymen this offseason.  Silva is entering the prime of his career, and posted a nice 4.19 ERA season last year with Minnesota.  Still, he absolutely must rely on an above-average defense, as his K:9 was almost astonishingly low last season (3.97).  He rarely walks people, but 5/50 or more would definitely be a risk.  He'll likely peak in 2008 but finish his prime as a capable #3 starter.
2008 Prediction:  200 IP, 50 BB, 145 K, 4.30 ERA, 30 GS
RN Says:  Throw him a "Royal Flush", why not?  (5/55)

Big Bartolo: Wearing Baby Blue in 2008?  Es posible, mi amigo!  Crealo!

Needless to say, we need to convince each Free Agent acquisition that we are 100% committed to building and sustaining a winning ballclub here in Kansas City.  We need to convince them that we will remain financially committed and that we aspire to be one of the greatest, if not *the greatest organization in Major League Baseball.

As NYRoyal explained in a post several weeks ago, our payroll next season with our current roster is approximately $42MM ($46-48MM on a rather liberal estimate).  My philosophy on acquiring a "big fish" (or even a "Rainbow Trout") is clear:  Why wait until tomorrow?  There may not be a tomorrow!  We could lose 100 games next season again and the fans could be forced to wait at least two more years before landing a difference-maker.  The organization is receiving $250MM from Jackson County taxpayers to help renovate our ballpark into an even more splendid beauty than it is now.  Ticket sales have increased by 15%, attendance increased last season by almost an average of 4,000 per game, and still our ballclub finished in the basement.  Most experts project payrolls throughout baseball to skyrocket in the coming few years.  As Dayton Moore has stated on multiple occasions, we all aspire to win a championship here in Kansas City.  Why not commit now?  Why not demonstrate to baseball, our fans, and the city that we are spending money wisely and efficiently to build a winning baseball team in Kansas City - now?  Emphasize youth.  But also emphasize good veteran ballplayers, such as one or two of the aforementioned fish.

My new motto:

Commit, baby, commit!