Goldstein: Top 11 Royals Prospects

by Freneau on Nov 19, 2007 12:32 PM EST

The prospect gurus must have decided this was to be Royals week at their secret meetings this winter, with Sickels and Goldstein both releasing their analysis of the boys in blue just before Thanksgiving.

(Diary on the Sickels rankings here.)

Here's how BP's Goldstein sees it:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Mike Moustakas, SS

Four-Star Prospects
2. Luke Hochevar, RHP

Three-Star Prospects

Daniel Cortes, RHP
Billy Buckner, RHP
Danny Duffy, LHP

Two-Star Prospects

Blake Wood, RHP
Carlos Rosa, RHP
Julio Pimentel, RHP
Sam Runion, RHP

One-Star Prospects

Mitch Maier, OF
Chris Lubanski, OF

You have to be a paid subscriber to see the rest, but overall Goldstein says:

"While the Royals have plenty of young talent, their minor league system is currently lacking, thanks mostly to some disappointing performances in 2007 from formerly ranked prospects like Jeff Bianchi, Brent Fisher, and Tyler Lumsden. The 2007 draft class has a chance to bring the system up, but it will be some time for those dividends to pay off."

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Top 10 Royals under 25

At the end of each of his top 11's, Goldstein ranks the organizations top 10 players who are under 25 by Opending Day 2008. Here is the Royals list:

Alex Gordon, 3B
Billy Butler, 1B
Mike Moustakas, ss
Luke Hochevar, RHP
Zack Greinke, RHP
Joakim Soria, RHP
Kyle Davies, RHP
Daniel Cortes, RHP
Billy Buckner, RHP
Leo Nunez, RHP

I find it odd that Hochevar is higher than Greinke. I find it interesting that Davies is #7 on that list, higher than Cortes, Buckner and Nunez. This is what Goldstein has to say about Davies: "Davies has gone from a once-highly regarded Braves prospect to maybe a bit of a sleeper, as scouts still like his stuff." Stuff counts. No way we should get rid of this guy.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 18, 2007 3:35 PM EST reply actions

indeed

Davies and Hochevar are almost both sleepers now. And yep, Greinke is too low. I'd put him 3rd, but then again, I don't know how these lists are done exactly.

by doublestix on Nov 18, 2007 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

Goldstein

Goldstein says that his rankings are made by a roughly equal combination of these players' statistical records and the comments he's collected from multiple scouts. So it is a combined performance/scouting evaluation. Baseball America, on the other hand, skews much more towards the pure scouting analysis.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 18, 2007 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

OK

I wasn't sure if he considered distance from majors...which I do in prospect rankings for the most part. Zack is a MLB pitcher right now, and could make a big impact on our club next year, while Moose's turn is a few years away...

by doublestix on Nov 18, 2007 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

Offense

This list shows just how devoid of young offensive talent we are. The top 3 are hitters and the rest are pitchers. I love the pitching depth that Dayton is building, but it'd be nice to be a little bit more even in the distribution.

by dman126 on Nov 18, 2007 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

that'll happen...

When you graduate two of the best offensive prospects in the game to the big leagues...But I'd much rather be stocked with pitching than offense. You can use pitching to get really anything you want...

by doublestix on Nov 18, 2007 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

Lubanski?

Yea he's better than that.

by doublestix on Nov 18, 2007 4:16 PM EST reply actions

I sure hope so

Goldstein did say that 2008 will be a make or break season for Lubanski and his place in the organization. He had a bad half season in AAA. Maybe that's just about a player getting used to a new level of play. If so, he should turn it on next year. If he doesn't, his star is going to fall far.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 18, 2007 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

Yep I agree

Give him a chance next year to show us if he has it or not. He has a history of struggling at a new level at first, then turning it on after a couple 100 AB's.

by doublestix on Nov 18, 2007 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

I think so too

He's still awfully young. I don't get why so many Royals fans are giving up on him.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2007 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

Cause he's not that good

by Stook on Nov 19, 2007 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

Nice

What proof do you have that we should give up on him?

by Bornin85 on Nov 19, 2007 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

Lubanski

Scouts have always had a split opinion on him. Some like his tools; some find them lacking. Some like the fact that he's come back to have good second halves in every minor league season (except 2007), while others point to the fact that he's always had bad first halves. Many expected Lubanski to prove things one way or the other in 2007 when he moved to AAA. Well, he moved to AAA and fell flat on his face. The scouting reports I've read not only question his hitting, but his speed and defense as well. So right now he looks like a guy whose minor league performance has been merely ok for a corner OFer and whose pure talent doesn't exactly knock your socks off.

Maybe he'll have a great 2007 in Omaha. I sure hope so. But right now, I would be surprised if Lubanski ever developed into an average MLB corner OFer. As with Maier, I think 4th OFer is much more likely.

There's no reason to give up on him yet, but his performance and scouting reports suggest that our expectations for him should be modest.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2007 5:10 PM EST up reply actions

Thoughts

I'm fine with the first few. I think Cortes probably should be a 4 star right under Hochevar.

Lubanski definitely needs to be above Maier. At least a two star guy. I'd probably have him at three stars.

I would also probably accept any well constructed argument for one of the two star pitching prospect guys moved up to three stars.

by wildthang on Nov 18, 2007 5:57 PM EST reply actions

well said

I agree with almost all that. I think an argument could be made for Wood to be a 3-star, and a full season of pitching is definitely going to bump him up a grade or two. Huge fan of this guy, electric stuff from a huge frame.

by doublestix on Nov 18, 2007 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

Rebuilding year on the farm

which will happen after graduating so many prospects in 2007. I think we have a lot of depth, not much in the way of impact still in the minors. I'm a little concerned with the report on Lubanski, it almost sounds like he'd have a tough time panning out as 4th OF. Maier sounds like he might have a shot in that capacity. Wood is tearing it up in winter ball so that's encouraging. I'm curious as to how our disappointing performers will do this year (Brent Fisher and Jeff Bianchi in particular). They were considered impact talents before falling off the table this year. We'll see what happens in 2008 and hopefully we get a good draft to boot.

by lordbyronk on Nov 18, 2007 9:56 PM EST reply actions

Rosa

I'd add Carlos Rosa to your list of "impact" players. Lubanski could be a servicable player, but a 4th OF is about right. Maier is already there. We need positional player depth.

by Stook on Nov 19, 2007 1:43 AM EST up reply actions

I'm with you on Rosa

He's better than he showed last year. I think he's a sleeper to become a #4 starter.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2007 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

Bianchi

Hurt again according to rotoworld. I don't think he or Erik Cordier (who's with Atlanta now) will ever be healthy.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 19, 2007 1:48 PM EST reply actions

Bianchi

A sprained ankle...I think he's fine.

I'd worry much more about Cordier ever being healthy.

by doublestix on Nov 19, 2007 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

The Royals farm system is not too healthy

There really is no way to get a lot of good prospects into a minor league system quickly. The organization just needs to consistently draft well, and to sign the players who they draft. As I understand the Royals did both of these jobs poorly during the late 1990's and early 2000's. So the relative dearth of good talent in the high minors is to be expected.

Dayton Moore could go out and sign well developed international players. The good players in Latin America are signed when they are teens, but Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Cuba are alternative sources were good High-A or AA level talent can sometimes be found.

Another method which might offer some hope is to draft American players who have fallen in the draft due to "signability" issues. There are often a few of these players available after the 1st round. KC could use sandwich picks or second round picks to restock more quickly, but Glass will need to be more generous with signing bonus money for this plan to be used effectively.

The only other method of restocking the high minors for 2008, 2009 and 2010 would be through trades or risky signings of injured former prospects who have "skills" or "stuff." These almost never pan out.

Rule-5 picks can help, but each costs a slot on the 25-man roster. The Royals were lucky with Soria last year but that is a once in a generation type of thing.

Anyway, I think the bottom line is that the Royals will be at a disadvantage for at least another two or three years due to the poor shape of the overall organization. I do not see a single impact player coming up from the minors in 2008 or 2009. A few decent role players, maybe a couple of decent pitchers, but no real impact players like Butler, Gordon or Teahen. Hochevar will probably be on the team in 2008 but I am not sure he will be an impact player anytime soon. If he gives the Royals 150 innings of sub-5.00 ERA baseball next year I think that would have to be considered a minor victory at this point.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Nov 19, 2007 4:33 PM EST reply actions

Good points

The Royals are weak throughout the entire minor league system. There are lots of ok prospects but little in the way of real impact players. And, unless you have a great established player to trade, there is no way to rebuild a system in a hurry. You have do it bit by bit, year by year.

If he gives the Royals 150 innings of sub-5.00 ERA baseball next year I think that would have to be considered a minor victory at this point.

That's good for pretty much any rookie starting pitcher. With regard to Hochevar's future, I never had my heart set on him being an ace. Aces are very rare, no matter where they picked in the draft. Most prospects fail. Most first round prospects fail. Hell, even most #1 overall drafted players never become decent major leaguers. So, if Hochevar eventually develops into a good, solid, dependable #3 starter with an ERA in the mid-4's, I'll be very happy. Any prospect that does that is beating the odds.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2007 4:51 PM EST up reply actions