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Winter Meetings Day One Open Thread

The fun starts now.

Oh to be an ex-jock or an Ivy Leaguer and in the employ of a baseball team this weekend. The rumors, the cell phones, the random player and second wife appearances, the hotel bar, whispers in the lobby, the vague internet rumors, and on and on. Ah, Nashville! Oh, Nashville!

Of course, we'll be here all December long on Royals Review, leeching of the coverage of the professionals and providing knee-jerk reaction to the moves as they come in. As you did last year, I hope you make RR one of your regular internet stops during the Winter Meetings.

Last year, we were all caught unawares by the Gil Meche signing, which quickly became one of the stories of the winter. The Meche signing was quickly followed with a string of lesser deals, including the snagging of Dotel, who for almost a full month was the living embodiment of Royal Pride. Meanwhile, some guy named Soria became the steal of the Rule 5, I'm sorry, the "Rule V Draft".

  • Unlike the Meche blindside, I believe we've entered Year Two of the Guillen-to-KC rumors, or perhaps it just seems that way. For an excellent post on the strangeness of baseball morality and the Guillen situation, check out Lookout Landing.
  • Two Royals mentions (or is it "Royal mentions"?) over at Baseball Prospectus today. Will Carroll (did we ever figure out what the Carroll-Sterger connection was exactly? thats got to go down as one of the most random name drops ever) mentions in his first "Will's Mill" post that the Royals are surprise players. Great. Because we all found the rumors that Dayton wanted Toriiiiiiiiiiii Hunter and Andruw Jones so intellectually reassuring. Meanwhile, John Perrotto mentions       that the Royals are looking for a power bat, and may be shopping DeJesus and Gobble. Now let us pause and try to name our favorite offensive move made by Dayton... Shealy! LaRue! Gathright!
  • JQ's already done a gentlemanly job breaking down the Dutton story in Sunday's Star on the Royals' finances. Congrats to the Royals on making "$1 million" in profits last year. I guess its a sign of progress that bonus cries of losing money aren't acceptable anymore, instead, bonus cries of incredibly small profits are. Of the wonders of the human mind, there is no limit to our praise.
  • The sister piece to the financial story is another Dutton story on Moore's approach to free agents. According to Dutton, the Royals head to the Winter Meetings, with "$25 million in spendable cash". What the story fails to mention is that they'll also be bringing with them $7 trillion in un-spendable cash.
  • According to Dick Kaegel, Royals fans are hoping this year's Winter Meetings are an encore of the last.
  • Kaegel also offers a Winter Meetings Checklist, that sums up all the off-season transactions thus far.

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FIRST!
Yesssss.

Oh wait... just a winter meetings post...

by Randa4life on Dec 3, 2007 1:23 AM EST   0 recs

$25 million
And we're going to spend it whether it makes sense or not!  Now that's how to field a winner.
I'd rather be watching baseball.

by Sisquatch Kids on Dec 3, 2007 10:42 AM EST   0 recs

Prediction
We sign Jose Guillen - 3 years $30 million

We sign Jason Jennings - 1 year $8 million with an option

We trade Joey Gathright to Texas for a minor leaguer

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 10:48 AM EST   0 recs

Cubs shopping Matt Murton?
he's a career .296/.365/.455 hitter...

by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 11:01 AM EST   0 recs

Yeah I just saw that
What do you think a team would have to give up to get him?  A solid Left handed bat?  Does he make sense for us?  He doesn't have much pop and does not really project to ever develop much power according to last year's BP.
I'd rather be watching baseball.

by Sisquatch Kids on Dec 3, 2007 11:09 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'd pass on Murton
He's not exactly the OF power threat we're looking for.  Kind of a less athletic version of Teahen who plays arguably worse defense.
"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Dec 3, 2007 11:18 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

he is more of a sure thing than Teahen though
Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Dec 3, 2007 12:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

He might provide a better 4th OF option
than Gator, Huber or Costa.  Would Gload be our 4th OF this year though?  I think he may have to be if we are going to carry him on the roster and Shealy.  Figuring our backups are to have Tupman, German, reserve SS (refusing to think that is Jason Smith). What does everyone think on that?  

by lordbyronk on Dec 3, 2007 12:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

probably yes
but i dont know if he's so much better that he's worth giving up something for him...

by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 12:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

he's gload, with better OBP
not the worst thing in the world
I have Morgellons.

by DyeFan187 on Dec 3, 2007 11:18 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I agree
And I don't think it will take much to get him. Cubs are looking for a lefty bat. What about Gathright? They seem to love that kind of speedy, light hitting player.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 11:20 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Dayton should be shopping Gator hard
but sadly, i thnk he also overvalues him
I have Morgellons.

by DyeFan187 on Dec 3, 2007 11:22 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Craig Brazell
Is now a Seibu Lion, according to Ken Rosenthal
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 11:16 AM EST   0 recs

Yeah, sadness
I bet Emil is in Japan next year also.

Maybe the Royals could sell Berroa to a Japanese team?  After Peral Harbor and all a bit of pay back might still be in order.

by James Quinn on Dec 3, 2007 12:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

How is it
...that every single major league team passed up this soon-to-be-great slugger??? </sarc>
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 12:02 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Because only the foks here at Royals Review
are brilliant!  Soon they will all learn!  Yes, and then they will be sad and spend hours every day searching the RR archives for other gems of wisdom!

Did Gload not explode!

Did Berroa not suck!

Did Buddy not turn out to less than a baseball genius!

How many times must RR be right before Dayton Moore just becomes our tool?

Plus, now that Brazell is a Japanese player everyone will want him to sign with the Royals!  He played this situation perfectly!

by James Quinn on Dec 3, 2007 12:11 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

wow
Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Dec 3, 2007 12:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

It goes without saying
that Brazell is a run of the mill AAAA slugger. He would not to amount to much as a MLB regular.  I think this is a good career move for him.
"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Dec 3, 2007 12:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I dunno...
I think he could be one of the top 120 COF/1B/DHs in the game, which is really all he would have to be... but yea, happy trails Braz

any word on how much he's making in Japan?

by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 12:38 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

That's what they said
About Jack Cust and Carlos Pena!

Granted, you have busts too, but I think Brazell deserved a shot somewhere stateside.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 12:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

That's what they said
...about a lot of journeyman career minor leaguers who never amounted to anything as well.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 12:47 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

There's a difference
Cust was a Justin Huber type, a top-hitting prospect without a position in the field. His curse was to spend most of his minor league career with NL organizations who refused to dump him because of his potent bat, but also refused to give him extensive playing time at the MLB level because of his lack of a position.  He toiled in the minors for much too long before the A's brightened up and gave him a shot at DH.

As for Pena, people forget that he was a top prospect for years.  At one time he was the top rated position player prospect by BA in both the A's and Tigers systems.  He always had monster power, but he struck out way too much. His learning curve was just longer and steeper than you'd expect.  

Brazell, meanwhile, has never been a top prospect.  The Mets didn't want him.  The Royals didn't either.  Brazell is much more Calvin Pickering or Kit Pellow than he is Cust or Pena.

"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Dec 3, 2007 1:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

you had me until that last line
I was actually going to say Brazell was more Brandon Berger than Calvin Pickering:  one huge season and a bunch of fairly average ones.

Actually, though, even calling Brazell a Brandon Berger isn't all that fair to Berger -- as Berger had a career minor league OPS 40 points higher than Brazell (.810 to .850).

As far as Calvin's concerned, I don't think Pickering really ever got a fair shake -- only 268 at bats total in the majors, and even then he didn't really do all that poorly, either (.757, very good slugging).  

He has a career .948 OPS in the minors, which should have been good enough to stick as a DH somewhere, but he just didn't physically resemble the prototypical baseball player, so I don't think he got a shot.  Sorta like Kucinich and the presidency.  There's really no other excuse for a team as offensively starved as the Royals of the last 10 years to give up on a player that hits a .838 in his last decent-sized sample in the pros.

by marbotty on Dec 3, 2007 2:51 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

i'm convinced we should make a play for tejada
not that we will, but that we should

it makes alot of sense, very Tigers-esque, and a huge upgrade

I have Morgellons.

by DyeFan187 on Dec 3, 2007 11:19 AM EST   0 recs

I'd like to make a run
But I don't think we have the expendable prospects required to land him.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 11:20 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

O's are asking for two good prospects/young-uns
I think Buckner and Gobble might get the deal done.  Maybe not.  Maybe they would also want Rosa/Costa or some other good young player.  The O's really are not asking for a lot here according to MLBTR.

He is owed $26M over the next two years.  And he will be named in the Mitchell Report.  So there is some baggage.  But I would love to see him join the team.

by James Quinn on Dec 3, 2007 12:03 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Buckner and Gobble?
If the O's do that deal, they deserve to be put in an institution.

But hey, it is the Orioles. You never know unless you ask. Just ask the Nats how they got Milledge.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 12:11 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

and tejada does have enough baggage...
rumors, etc... who knows

that being said, i think he'd be miserable in KC if they weren't over .500

but, if he was here, and we started hot, then we'd also get tohear about his vet leadership

by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 12:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

its 11 30 in Nashville
why haven't we signed anyone!!!

i want action

I have Morgellons.

by DyeFan187 on Dec 3, 2007 11:34 AM EST   0 recs

Baseball Prospectus
Unfiltered

# Who's the surprise player? According to five different independent sources, it's the Orioles. "They're buyers and sellers, plus this is probably the one time when Andy MacPhail will have a free hand to make these kinds of decisions." Others mentioned are the Royals, Astros, and Giants.
# Don't expect any early deals. There's nothing that close right now, and the teams will stay away from announcing anything close to the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee results, assuming they have some.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 12:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Who will be the first ex-Brave Dayton snags?
Pete Orr

Brayan Pena

Buddy Caryle

any other guesses?

by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 11:43 AM EST   0 recs

Hopefully Andruw Jones
"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Dec 3, 2007 11:45 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I hope Pete Orr
He can really provide the grit we need and since he's white, he "really knows how to play the game."

Plus, with Matt Stairs gone, and Ryan Braun possibly slated for Omaha, Orr fufills our Canadian quota.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 12:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Pete Orr fits perfectly
he WILL be a Royal someday
Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Dec 3, 2007 12:31 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Bill Pecota
the next generation.

by lordbyronk on Dec 3, 2007 12:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Hall shuns Royal legends
Both Ewing Kauffman (around 41% of the vote) and Whitey Herzog (missed it by a vote) were rejected by the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee today (Billy Southworth, Dick Williams and Walter O'Malley got in).

It is now up to Dayton to avenge such disrespect of Royal-ty by owning the winter meetings.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 3, 2007 12:27 PM EST   0 recs

Next years Winter Meetings Locale...
Vegas baby, Vegas
Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Dec 3, 2007 12:31 PM EST   0 recs

Missed it by that much
I can't believe that Minnesota will now not even be able to consider our Nunez-Huber-Lubanski package.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 12:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

they wanted Gobble
but Dayton wouldn't budge

by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 12:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I wouldn't give up on it quite yet
Once we trade Alex Gordon for A-Rod, Santana may be induced to waive his no-trade to come to Kansas City.

Gobble, Duckworth and Costa should be enough to get him.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 12:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Not so fast
Santana's agent told the Star Tribune that story is untrue at this point:

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=282

So we're still in it!!!!!

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 3, 2007 2:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I love how...
during the ALDS we got loads of "this is the last stand/chance of the Yankees, everyone is gone after this"

or, not

actually, everyone is back except the manager

by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 12:56 PM EST   0 recs

What is the market for David Eckstein?
He is a SS who I keep thinking might help upgrade the Royals.  Is he a FA that KC might consider signing to a low risk, low years type contract?  I haven't heard much interest on him?  M

by daveyork on Dec 3, 2007 1:14 PM EST   0 recs

Not interested
His defense is terrible, and he's not much of an offensive upgrade over TPJ. He's also the only shortstop available, so he's likely to get waaaay overpaid because he's scrappy.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 1:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Carlos Quentin to the White Sox
There goes one young corner outfielder I thought we might get. Dealt for 1B Chris Carter, a 20 year old 1B who hit 25 home runs in A ball.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 1:24 PM EST   0 recs

Quentin's star has fallen far
He's been on the trading block for months and the best they could get for him was an pretty good 1B prospect.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 2:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

if that's all it took
It seems like we could have landed him for a pretty mediocre package of something like Lubanski, Stodolka and a Pimental/Blake Johnson/Lumsden-type.

by marbotty on Dec 3, 2007 2:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I think there is a reason
...that no team apparently offered the D-Backs more than a pretty good 1B A-ball prospect.  And that the D-Backs were willing to take so little for him.  I don't think he has the big upside potential that everyone once thought he had.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 3:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Kuroda
So it's being reported that the M's only offered around 3/30 to Kuroda rather than the 4/44 previously being reported. Not sure which is correct but it sounds like we still have a shot.

by MileHighKCfan on Dec 3, 2007 1:50 PM EST   0 recs

We're still in it
I hope to hell we don't have to go to 5 years to get him.  Maybe we could offer 4/44 plus significant performance incentives.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 2:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

More positive news
"Hiroki Kuroda isn't dead set on the West Coast - he's keeping an open mind in terms of location."

From Rosenthal via MLBTR.

by MileHighKCfan on Dec 3, 2007 3:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

What is really important to Kuroda
His public relations-oriented statements would have you believe that what is most important to him is 1) geography, and 2) the challenge of playing at the highest level of baseball.  This is nothing against Kuroda, but I have a sneaking suspicion that like 95% of MLB players, what is really important to Kuroda is $$$.  Whoever gives him the best deal in terms of dollars and years will win.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 3:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

less positive news
From the story posted just above that in MLBtraderumors.com:  Royals have shown interest in Matt Clement.

What's the point, other than he and Colby Lewis would make for pretty good bookends of below average pitchers in the rotation?

I guess Clement could pull a Meche, but if we end up landing him, it would qualify as Moore's most Baird-like move to date.

by marbotty on Dec 3, 2007 3:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

What if...
I'm no Clement fan, but what if Moore were to sign someone like Clement or Colon to a one-year low base salary contract with significant incentives?  I believe that is the kind of contract most are expecting a pitcher like that will receive.  If we can't get Kuroda or Silva at a reasonable price, I wouldn't be entirely against bringing in someone like Clement or Colon on a low-risk deal.  The alternative would be leaving 40% of the rotation to rookies.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 3:23 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'm down with that
It's all about how much he's looking at spending.  Any more than $4 million/year on him would seem to be too much (unless it's increased via incentives.)  

With Colon I'd be willing to go a little bit higher.

by marbotty on Dec 3, 2007 3:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Chris Shelton?
According to AaronGleeman.com:

Speaking of right-handed corner bats, Chris Shelton has been designated for assignment by the Tigers. Shelton fell out of favor in Detroit after slumping in 2006, but he's still just 27 years old and has hit .281/.348/.477 in 899 big-league plate appearances along with .311/.410/.500 in over 2,000 trips to the plate in the minors.

How about Brad Wilkerson (one of the top-10 free agents in SLG) and Shelton as a two-for-one low cost not-getting-suspended alternative?  Or Shelton alone as Guillen's suspension replacement and a 4th OF/1B/PH?

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 3, 2007 2:08 PM EST   0 recs

I like Wilkerson
Don't really understand why we're not rumored to be talking to him.

As far as Shelton, I like Shelton, I think he can help a team, but we already have a lot of 1B/DH types (Butler, Gload, Huber, Shealy) that all have flaws. We don't really need another.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 2:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

We already have two Wilkersons
Wilkerson will give you a good OBP but he doesn't make enough contact to show much of any power.  He's basically yet another DeJesus or Teahen.  We have that.  We need some power.  Wilkerson has very, very little.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 2:18 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Little power?
He slugged .467 last year, with a low average. Granted, in Texas, but he has shown good power in the past.

I don't think it would cost much at all to get him. It would be a gamble sure, he strikes out a ton and his average is low. But I think he could make a good backup plan to Guillen.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 2:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Let's look at some more stats
He had a .467 SLG last year in an extreme power hitter's park.  In the prior two years, his slugging percentages were .422 and .405.  And his last two seasons' OBP were .319 and .306.  Over the last 3 years, Wilkerson has ben a league average hitter, which makes him decidedly below average for a corner OF spot and definitely not the kind of hitter we need to genuinely improve the offense.

I guess I don't mind Wilkerson being on the list as long as he's below Jones, Guillen, Fukudome, and Jenkins (if we can get a decent platoon partner for him, like Bobby Kielty).

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 2:55 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wilkerson has above average power for OF
The problem with looking only at SLG to determine power is that much of SLG is made up of the player's batting average.  The better way to analyze power is to look at a player's Isolated Slugging Percentage (ISOP), which subtracts batting average out as part of the equation.  Per BTF, an average ISOP for a corner outfielder is around .175.

For Wilkerson, his ISOP the last four years have been:

2004  .243 (.236 on road/.251 at Olympic Stadium)
2005  .157 (.157 on road/.159 at RFK)
2006  .200 (.227 on road/.170 at Arlington)
2007  .233 (.207 on road/.259 at Arlington)

He posted .200+ ISOP on the road for the Rangers, so it is not driven by his cozy home ballpark.  As a corner outfielder, he has moderately above average power, and significantly more than DeJesus (2005-07: .152, .151, .112 ) or Teahen (2005-07: .130, .227, .125).

The problem with Wilkerson, as noted above, is that he makes so little contact to provide much help.  

by Gopherballs on Dec 3, 2007 4:47 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I care about production, not tools
Yes, his ISOP shows that he has good power skills and that when he makes contact, he is likely to hit the ball hard.  That's great, but it is also irrelevant.  If your power skills don't translate into a good slugging percentage, then it is meaningless.  And, on top of that, he hasn't been getting on base nearly often enough in the last two years.  That doesn't make for a particularly good hitter.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2007 4:50 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Understanding a player's skills
is a necessary component in developing a reasonable expectation of how a player will likely perform in the future.  

Segregating out how a hitter performs is very helpful.  For a guy like Wilkerson, we can see that he hits for good power, he takes walks at a fair clip (yet down from his best years), but makes so little contact that his overall value falls pretty far.  If you could see a reason to suggest that he likely will improve his contact rate (the one part of his game that is bringing him down), Wilkerson would be a great player to target because the power and walks are already there.  Unfortunately, in Wilkerson's case, there is little reason to expect Wilkerson will fix his contact problem.  But because the next player may have a fixable problem, the analysis is certainly worth doing.

Looking only at past production is the Allard Baird way.

by Gopherballs on Dec 3, 2007 5:28 PM EST to parent up