Winter Meetings Day One Open Thread
The fun starts now.
Oh to be an ex-jock or an Ivy Leaguer and in the employ of a baseball team this weekend. The rumors, the cell phones, the random player and second wife appearances, the hotel bar, whispers in the lobby, the vague internet rumors, and on and on. Ah, Nashville! Oh, Nashville!
Of course, we'll be here all December long on Royals Review, leeching of the coverage of the professionals and providing knee-jerk reaction to the moves as they come in. As you did last year, I hope you make RR one of your regular internet stops during the Winter Meetings.
Last year, we were all caught unawares by the Gil Meche signing, which quickly became one of the stories of the winter. The Meche signing was quickly followed with a string of lesser deals, including the snagging of Dotel, who for almost a full month was the living embodiment of Royal Pride. Meanwhile, some guy named Soria became the steal of the Rule 5, I'm sorry, the "Rule V Draft".
- Unlike the Meche blindside, I believe we've entered Year Two of the Guillen-to-KC rumors, or perhaps it just seems that way. For an excellent post on the strangeness of baseball morality and the Guillen situation, check out Lookout Landing.
- Two Royals mentions (or is it "Royal mentions"?) over at Baseball Prospectus today. Will Carroll (did we ever figure out what the Carroll-Sterger connection was exactly? thats got to go down as one of the most random name drops ever) mentions in his first "Will's Mill" post that the Royals are surprise players. Great. Because we all found the rumors that Dayton wanted Toriiiiiiiiiiii Hunter and Andruw Jones so intellectually reassuring. Meanwhile, John Perrotto mentions that the Royals are looking for a power bat, and may be shopping DeJesus and Gobble. Now let us pause and try to name our favorite offensive move made by Dayton... Shealy! LaRue! Gathright!
- JQ's already done a gentlemanly job breaking down the Dutton story in Sunday's Star on the Royals' finances. Congrats to the Royals on making "$1 million" in profits last year. I guess its a sign of progress that bonus cries of losing money aren't acceptable anymore, instead, bonus cries of incredibly small profits are. Of the wonders of the human mind, there is no limit to our praise.
- The sister piece to the financial story is another Dutton story on Moore's approach to free agents. According to Dutton, the Royals head to the Winter Meetings, with "$25 million in spendable cash". What the story fails to mention is that they'll also be bringing with them $7 trillion in un-spendable cash.
- According to Dick Kaegel, Royals fans are hoping this year's Winter Meetings are an encore of the last.
- Kaegel also offers a Winter Meetings Checklist, that sums up all the off-season transactions thus far.
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Comments
FIRST!
Oh wait... just a winter meetings post...
by Randa4life on Dec 3, 2007 1:23 AM EST 0 recs
I am sure Scott Boras jumps into the hotel
by James Quinn on
Dec 3, 2007 9:54 AM EST
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$25 million
by Sisquatch Kids on Dec 3, 2007 10:42 AM EST 0 recs
Prediction
We sign Jason Jennings - 1 year $8 million with an option
We trade Joey Gathright to Texas for a minor leaguer
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 10:48 AM EST 0 recs
Cubs shopping Matt Murton?
by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 11:01 AM EST 0 recs
Yeah I just saw that
by Sisquatch Kids on
Dec 3, 2007 11:09 AM EST
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I'd pass on Murton
by DC Royal on
Dec 3, 2007 11:18 AM EST
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he is more of a sure thing than Teahen though
by FireBell on
Dec 3, 2007 12:32 PM EST
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He might provide a better 4th OF option
by lordbyronk on
Dec 3, 2007 12:35 PM EST
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probably yes
by royalsreview on
Dec 3, 2007 12:37 PM EST
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he's gload, with better OBP
by DyeFan187 on
Dec 3, 2007 11:18 AM EST
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I agree
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 3, 2007 11:20 AM EST
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Dayton should be shopping Gator hard
by DyeFan187 on
Dec 3, 2007 11:22 AM EST
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And a much higher Slugging
by James Quinn on
Dec 3, 2007 11:58 AM EST
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Craig Brazell
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 11:16 AM EST 0 recs
Yeah, sadness
Maybe the Royals could sell Berroa to a Japanese team? After Peral Harbor and all a bit of pay back might still be in order.
by James Quinn on
Dec 3, 2007 12:00 PM EST
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How is it
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 12:02 PM EST
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Because only the foks here at Royals Review
Did Gload not explode!
Did Berroa not suck!
Did Buddy not turn out to less than a baseball genius!
How many times must RR be right before Dayton Moore just becomes our tool?
Plus, now that Brazell is a Japanese player everyone will want him to sign with the Royals! He played this situation perfectly!
by James Quinn on
Dec 3, 2007 12:11 PM EST
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It goes without saying
by DC Royal on
Dec 3, 2007 12:36 PM EST
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I dunno...
any word on how much he's making in Japan?
by royalsreview on
Dec 3, 2007 12:38 PM EST
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That's what they said
Granted, you have busts too, but I think Brazell deserved a shot somewhere stateside.
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 3, 2007 12:41 PM EST
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That's what they said
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 12:47 PM EST
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There's a difference
As for Pena, people forget that he was a top prospect for years. At one time he was the top rated position player prospect by BA in both the A's and Tigers systems. He always had monster power, but he struck out way too much. His learning curve was just longer and steeper than you'd expect.
Brazell, meanwhile, has never been a top prospect. The Mets didn't want him. The Royals didn't either. Brazell is much more Calvin Pickering or Kit Pellow than he is Cust or Pena.
by DC Royal on
Dec 3, 2007 1:06 PM EST
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you had me until that last line
Actually, though, even calling Brazell a Brandon Berger isn't all that fair to Berger -- as Berger had a career minor league OPS 40 points higher than Brazell (.810 to .850).
As far as Calvin's concerned, I don't think Pickering really ever got a fair shake -- only 268 at bats total in the majors, and even then he didn't really do all that poorly, either (.757, very good slugging).
He has a career .948 OPS in the minors, which should have been good enough to stick as a DH somewhere, but he just didn't physically resemble the prototypical baseball player, so I don't think he got a shot. Sorta like Kucinich and the presidency. There's really no other excuse for a team as offensively starved as the Royals of the last 10 years to give up on a player that hits a .838 in his last decent-sized sample in the pros.
by marbotty on
Dec 3, 2007 2:51 PM EST
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i'm convinced we should make a play for tejada
it makes alot of sense, very Tigers-esque, and a huge upgrade
by DyeFan187 on Dec 3, 2007 11:19 AM EST 0 recs
I'd like to make a run
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 3, 2007 11:20 AM EST
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O's are asking for two good prospects/young-uns
He is owed $26M over the next two years. And he will be named in the Mitchell Report. So there is some baggage. But I would love to see him join the team.
by James Quinn on
Dec 3, 2007 12:03 PM EST
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Buckner and Gobble?
But hey, it is the Orioles. You never know unless you ask. Just ask the Nats how they got Milledge.
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 3, 2007 12:11 PM EST
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and tejada does have enough baggage...
that being said, i think he'd be miserable in KC if they weren't over .500
but, if he was here, and we started hot, then we'd also get tohear about his vet leadership
by royalsreview on
Dec 3, 2007 12:39 PM EST
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its 11 30 in Nashville
i want action
by DyeFan187 on Dec 3, 2007 11:34 AM EST 0 recs
Baseball Prospectus
# Who's the surprise player? According to five different independent sources, it's the Orioles. "They're buyers and sellers, plus this is probably the one time when Andy MacPhail will have a free hand to make these kinds of decisions." Others mentioned are the Royals, Astros, and Giants.
# Don't expect any early deals. There's nothing that close right now, and the teams will stay away from announcing anything close to the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee results, assuming they have some.
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 3, 2007 12:00 PM EST
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Who will be the first ex-Brave Dayton snags?
Brayan Pena
Buddy Caryle
any other guesses?
by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 11:43 AM EST 0 recs
Hopefully Andruw Jones
by DC Royal on
Dec 3, 2007 11:45 AM EST
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I hope Pete Orr
Plus, with Matt Stairs gone, and Ryan Braun possibly slated for Omaha, Orr fufills our Canadian quota.
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 3, 2007 12:01 PM EST
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Pete Orr fits perfectly
by FireBell on
Dec 3, 2007 12:31 PM EST
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Dark Horse candidate
I would be glad to trade in Smith for Giles.
by James Quinn on
Dec 3, 2007 1:14 PM EST
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Hall shuns Royal legends
It is now up to Dayton to avenge such disrespect of Royal-ty by owning the winter meetings.
by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 3, 2007 12:27 PM EST 0 recs
Next years Winter Meetings Locale...
by FireBell on Dec 3, 2007 12:31 PM EST 0 recs
Well, looks like the ROyals are out of the
by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 12:44 PM EST 0 recs
Missed it by that much
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 12:49 PM EST
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I wouldn't give up on it quite yet
Gobble, Duckworth and Costa should be enough to get him.
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 3, 2007 12:53 PM EST
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I don't think we should mortgage the future
by marbotty on
Dec 3, 2007 2:53 PM EST
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Not so fast
http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=282
So we're still in it!!!!!
by CentralChamps2009 on
Dec 3, 2007 2:00 PM EST
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I love how...
or, not
actually, everyone is back except the manager
by royalsreview on Dec 3, 2007 12:56 PM EST 0 recs
What is the market for David Eckstein?
by daveyork on Dec 3, 2007 1:14 PM EST 0 recs
Not interested
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 3, 2007 1:25 PM EST
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Carlos Quentin to the White Sox
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2007 1:24 PM EST 0 recs
Quentin's star has fallen far
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 2:07 PM EST
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if that's all it took
by marbotty on
Dec 3, 2007 2:59 PM EST
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I think there is a reason
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 3:06 PM EST
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Kuroda
by MileHighKCfan on Dec 3, 2007 1:50 PM EST 0 recs
We're still in it
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 2:06 PM EST
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More positive news
From Rosenthal via MLBTR.
by MileHighKCfan on
Dec 3, 2007 3:00 PM EST
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What is really important to Kuroda
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 3:08 PM EST
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less positive news
What's the point, other than he and Colby Lewis would make for pretty good bookends of below average pitchers in the rotation?
I guess Clement could pull a Meche, but if we end up landing him, it would qualify as Moore's most Baird-like move to date.
by marbotty on
Dec 3, 2007 3:17 PM EST
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What if...
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 3:23 PM EST
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I'm down with that
With Colon I'd be willing to go a little bit higher.
by marbotty on
Dec 3, 2007 3:36 PM EST
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Chris Shelton?
Speaking of right-handed corner bats, Chris Shelton has been designated for assignment by the Tigers. Shelton fell out of favor in Detroit after slumping in 2006, but he's still just 27 years old and has hit .281/.348/.477 in 899 big-league plate appearances along with .311/.410/.500 in over 2,000 trips to the plate in the minors.
How about Brad Wilkerson (one of the top-10 free agents in SLG) and Shelton as a two-for-one low cost not-getting-suspended alternative? Or Shelton alone as Guillen's suspension replacement and a 4th OF/1B/PH?
by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 3, 2007 2:08 PM EST 0 recs
I like Wilkerson
As far as Shelton, I like Shelton, I think he can help a team, but we already have a lot of 1B/DH types (Butler, Gload, Huber, Shealy) that all have flaws. We don't really need another.
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 3, 2007 2:16 PM EST
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We already have two Wilkersons
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 2:18 PM EST
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Little power?
I don't think it would cost much at all to get him. It would be a gamble sure, he strikes out a ton and his average is low. But I think he could make a good backup plan to Guillen.
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 3, 2007 2:28 PM EST
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Let's look at some more stats
I guess I don't mind Wilkerson being on the list as long as he's below Jones, Guillen, Fukudome, and Jenkins (if we can get a decent platoon partner for him, like Bobby Kielty).
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 2:55 PM EST
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Wilkerson has above average power for OF
For Wilkerson, his ISOP the last four years have been:
2004 .243 (.236 on road/.251 at Olympic Stadium)
2005 .157 (.157 on road/.159 at RFK)
2006 .200 (.227 on road/.170 at Arlington)
2007 .233 (.207 on road/.259 at Arlington)
He posted .200+ ISOP on the road for the Rangers, so it is not driven by his cozy home ballpark. As a corner outfielder, he has moderately above average power, and significantly more than DeJesus (2005-07: .152, .151, .112 ) or Teahen (2005-07: .130, .227, .125).
The problem with Wilkerson, as noted above, is that he makes so little contact to provide much help.
by Gopherballs on
Dec 3, 2007 4:47 PM EST
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I care about production, not tools
by NYRoyal on
Dec 3, 2007 4:50 PM EST
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Understanding a player's skills
Segregating out how a hitter performs is very helpful. For a guy like Wilkerson, we can see that he hits for good power, he takes walks at a fair clip (yet down from his best years), but makes so little contact that his overall value falls pretty far. If you could see a reason to suggest that he likely will improve his contact rate (the one part of his game that is bringing him down), Wilkerson would be a great player to target because the power and walks are already there. Unfortunately, in Wilkerson's case, there is little reason to expect Wilkerson will fix his contact problem. But because the next player may have a fixable problem, the analysis is certainly worth doing.
Looking only at past production is the Allard Baird way.


