Why the Royals need another starting pitcher

by Scott McKinney on Dec 25, 2007 5:34 AM EST

As it stands right now, the Royals rotation is:

Meche
Bannister
Greinke
?????
?????

The question marks would be filled by two of Hochevar, Hudson, Bale, De La Rosa, Davies, Nunez, or Wright. That wouldn't be too bad, but you can't think of a rotation as going five deep. The reality is that because of injury or poor performance, every major league team is going have to give some starts to other pitchers over the course of a season. Last season, major league teams gave an average of 31.6 starts to pitchers outside of their top 5. That's amounts to basically a full season of starting pitching from your #6 starter pool.

So the likely rotation would actually be:

Meche
Bannister
Greinke
?????
?????
?????

Most of the team's starts would come from a pool of talented but iffy pitchers who may or may not be ready to be major league starters.

If, however, the Royals signed somebody like Lieber, Benson, Jennings or Clement, the rotation gets much more solid:

Meche
Bannister
Greinke
Lieber/Benson/Jennings/Clement
?????
?????

One could argue that since 2008 is still a rebuilding year, we should have as many rotation spots as possible open for extended tryouts/auditions and to give these young pitchers major league starting experience. The first problem with that is that 2008 isn't a pure rebuilding year. We're not at the bottom of the rebuilding curve; we're well on our way up and not too far from contention. I think this is about a .500 team. We have to balance player development with getting more wins. In addition to rebuilding the team, we're rebuilding the fan base and, perhaps, a "culture of winning." I'm ok with using a couple of spots in the lineup for extended tryouts (SS and 1B), but not more than half of the team's starting pitching.

The second problem with the maximize tryouts philosophy is that the most talented pitchers on that list (Hochevar, Nunez, Davies) would probably benefit from extended time in the Omaha rotation, rather than being forced into the major league rotation because the rotation is too thin.

So my rotation would probably be:

Meche
Bannister
Greinke
Lieber/Benson/Jennings/Clement
Hudson/De La Rosa/Bale

That is a fairly deep rotation. If one of the top four falters or goes on the DL one of the two #5 SP candidates who didn't make it can step in. Hochevar, Nunez and Davies should be anchoring the AAA rotation.

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Comments

interesting...

For whatever reason I don't think the Royals will sign one of the four guys you mentioned. I think it will be someone of the Bale/Davies level, which, probably is just as well...

Meche, Greinke, Banny is a solid foundation, and we've got two years to find four more guys (1 to replace Banny... just had to get that pessimism in)

by Freneau on Dec 24, 2007 1:49 PM EST reply actions

There's really no reason not to sign a one-year FA

The Royals have more than enough money to sign any of the remaining FA's and most of them could be had for a one-year deal. Some of them might be worthy of modest two-year deals. I'm fairly sure that Moore values starting pitching very highly. I'd be surprised if we went into the season with the current starting pitchers. And considering how deep the second tier of SP FA's is, there's no reason to dip down into the third tier.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 24, 2007 2:03 PM EST reply actions

I agree

I tend to think the Royals pursue a one year risk/reward pitcher of the Jennings/Benson variety. Let them play out the year and see which of our young pitchers (Hooch, Davies, JDLR or our excellent AA staff) step up and look like major leaguers. Bale looks like the fifth starter to me. If we don't acquire anyone the fourth starter's job is Hochevar's to lose. Bottomline: With the young pitchers we have developing that are not that far off, there is no sense investing a longterm multi-million dollar contract for staff filler like Lohse.

by lordbyronk on Dec 24, 2007 2:48 PM EST reply actions

If Soria Can Make

The leap to the rotation, I think Nunez should get a shot at closing. I think we could find the fifth starter from our existing staff, (JDLR, Beowl, Davies, et al). Then, if we can get a good deal on a starter for a year or two, it's just a bonus and we can send whoever was #5 back to the pen.

I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Dec 24, 2007 2:56 PM EST reply actions

i want 2 see Moore show off his scouting bonafides

and find us another gem

thats the only way he'll ever win in KC anyway

by LeoBloom on Dec 24, 2007 2:59 PM EST reply actions

LOL

by doublestix on Dec 24, 2007 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

starter

I don't think we NEED one, but it would be very nice to sign a guy like Lieber who could eat innings for us.

Meche/Greinke/Bannister/Lieber/Hochevar would be fine be me entering the season.

I'd like to see Davies in the bullpen as well, give him a Greinke treatment. Trust your stuff kid, it's pretty good.

by doublestix on Dec 24, 2007 4:05 PM EST reply actions

+1 on everything...

by rockchalk on Dec 25, 2007 12:13 AM EST up reply actions

Clement

is the best choice of the remaining crop.

He's a year and a half removed from surgery now and has always been league average or better when healthy. Two years, $5mil. He'll be a bargain in the #3/#4 slot with Bannister.

Our best candidate for #5 is in house.

Hochevar, at the club's request, pitched the entire year last year without his out-pitch because they wanted him to improve his 'fastball command.'

That's how he had the great K/BB ratio yet posted a high ERA. Unleashed with his full arsenal, he's ready to start in the majors NOW.

I want stock in that kid.

by howserfan on Dec 24, 2007 5:09 PM EST reply actions

Carlos Silva

Would have been a really nice #4. I hate the idea of Soria in the rotation leave him be. I also don't like the left handed relief crop we have. Musser did a good job with us being up and down everyother day too I like him I would be happy with him in there. We need Moore to get a young try me out in the 4 hole left handed starter. I like Scott Olsen if you want to go Brave hunting again get Jo Jo Reyes. De La Disaster doesn't deserve to start anymore. Plus we can't got all 5 starters being right handed. Hochevar could be ready but I'm really pulling for Luke Hudson too he was good in 06 and I'd like to see him work out for us.

by KingofKansasCity on Dec 24, 2007 6:29 PM EST reply actions

I still don't know what I think about Soria as SP

anyone else?

by Freneau on Dec 24, 2007 10:51 PM EST reply actions

I want to see JDLR

start every day game next year. He had a near perfect record when pitching day games. One of those interesting little facts that the "color" commentator comes up with.

by Shooter on Dec 24, 2007 11:43 PM EST up reply actions

I salute you shooter...

being on RR on Christmas Eve night is hardcore

by Freneau on Dec 25, 2007 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

First game

of a double header, he's your man.

by lordbyronk on Dec 25, 2007 5:24 AM EST up reply actions

he's a starter

this is a guy who threw a no-hitter like a week before we picked him up in the rule V draft. he's incredibly efficient. he's got a deep repertoire. this is a starter. even if he tops out at #2/3 starter, he's still more valuable than a top 10 closer. i wouldn't be against him closing for another year to keep his innings down, but i think it would be a huge mistake to at least not give him an honest shot in the rotation.

by Billex Gordler on Dec 25, 2007 12:40 AM EST up reply actions

It was

A perfect game, not a no hitter.

That said, I'm fine with Soria in the pen this year, with no winter ball in 2009 and him in the rotation that spring.

by BlueEyesAustin on Dec 26, 2007 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

Hopefully some spot starts this year

That's basically the Johan Santana development strategy. The Twins developed him in the major league bullpen and he didn't become a full-time starting pitcher until his fifth major league season.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 26, 2007 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

same

Of course, best case scenario might be Hochevar and Davies (or Rosa) stepping up this year to become good starters...so we can go into 2009 with Meche-Greinke-Bannister-Hochevar-Davies/Rosa and keep Soria in the pen.

Also, I don't think winter ball matters that much since he is just pitching in relief, he's only logged like 7 innings and the season ends in a week.

by doublestix on Dec 26, 2007 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

Buy One?

Not quite the pockets of the Yankees, huh? Geez.

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2007/12/25/luxury-doesnt-pay-for-the-yankees/

by ET90210 on Dec 25, 2007 10:10 PM EST reply actions

The Royals' pitching depth.

What I like about this story is that NYRoyal brings out the importance of organizational depth. So much attention is placed on what 25 players make the opening day roster, what five pitchers are in the initial rotation and who will be at first base on April 1st.

Almost every baseball team uses 32-35 players extensively every year. About 18-20 player will get at least 50 at bats, and about 15-17 pitchers will get at least 20 innings of work. Most likely nine or ten pitchers will start games for the Royals next year.

Two years ago the Royals were reduced down to about four or five pitchers who had any business being in the major leagues. The other thirteen pitchers who accumulated 19 or more innings of work that year simply were not capable of playing in the major leagues.

2005 Starting Pitchers
Zach Greinke (33 starts, 5.80 ERA)
Jose Lima (32, 6.99 ERA)
Runelvys Hernandez (29, 5.52 ERA)
D. J. Carrasco (20, 4.79 ERA)
J.P. Howell (15, 6.19 ERA)
Mike Wood (10, 4.46 ERA)
Denny Bautista (7, 5.80 ERA)
Brian Anderson (6, 6.75 ERA)
Jimmy Gobble (4, 5.70 ERA)
Kyle Snyder (3, 6.75 ERA)
Ryan Jensen (3, 7.11 ERA)

Of those eleven men I don't think I will find too much argument if I say that only D.J. Carrasco and Mike Wood earned starts rather than had them handed to them by a dysfunctional desperate organization. Dayton Moore has done an amazing job in less than two years building up the organizations pitching depth. I think the worst pitchers we are likely to see start more than one of two games for the Royals next year are guys like Luke Hudson, Jorge de la Rosa, Luke Hochevar and Brandon Duckworth. Those guys would have been in the upper half of the last Alan Baird pitching staff.

Anyway, NYR is entirely correct. If the Royals really want to be a competitive team they need to have at least seven pitchers who can start games without embarrassing the franchise. They had two in 2005. Even if no more starters are signed it looks like the Royals will go into 2008 with at least six, and possibly as many as eight, legitimate candidates.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Dec 26, 2007 8:30 PM EST reply actions

Bullpen

The importance of depth beyond your initial 11 or 12-man pitching staff is a key reason that the Mahay signing was a good move. While we had a sound 6-man bullpen before signing him, it is unlikely that those 6 would have held throughout the entire season. The combination of injuries and poor performances always lead teams to go much deeper into the organization. Mahay adds to that depth and makes it less likely that we'll have to rely on minor leaguers who might not be ready for major league duty.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 26, 2007 8:40 PM EST up reply actions