Weekend Update, AL Central Projections

by royalsreview on Feb 22, 2007 8:10 PM EST in News

Beyond the Dennis Miller and Norm MacDonald eras, I haven't been much of a fan. Still, here are some quick hitters as we head into the weekend.

-"Loyal2theRoyals" has started a Boyfriend of the Year Contest which promises that the winner will "get something cool that I haven't worked out yet". Please claim your predictions/candidates fast, lest you be stuck with Joey Gathright's 2nd cousin or something.

-A similar need to avoid dithering is manifest in the Royals Review fantasy league, which still has some open slots. The draft isn't for a few more weeks, but you can't draft if you ain't in the party.

-Looking for that perfect St. Patrick's Day/Easter/Pentecost/Patriot's Day/Anniversary gift? Looking to show someone just how much they mean to you? Don't say it with a diamond, say it with a non-tax deductible Royals Review T-Shirt, availible in grey, gray and gris.

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In other news, the Pecota/PECOTA Depth Charts are up at BP. You can view the Cards chart for free, if you don't have BP Premium. The Depth Charts try to predict playing time, then plug in the PECOTA projections for the whole team, producing a composite RS and RA.

Here's how PECOTA sees the AL Central:

Team-----RS---- RA----- W-L

Minnesota: 831, 735, 91-71
Cleveland: 856, 770, 89-73
Detroit: 786, 747, 85-77
ChiSox: 777, 868, 72-90
KANSAS CITY: 772, 921, 67-95

Thoughts?

0 recs | Comment 20 comments

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Comments

PECOTA

Seems pessimistic on the Royals and White Sox. I know both teams have pitching issues, but I doubt either team will be that bad. The Central should be a dogfight this year.

"Your best? Losers always whine about 'giving it their best.' Winners go home and fuck the prom queen."

"Carla was the prom queen."

by NHZ on Feb 22, 2007 8:32 PM EST 0 recs

the white sox

are projected to get horrible play out of left, center and a fall back year for DYE and some very medicore pitching

by royalsreview on Feb 22, 2007 9:13 PM EST 0 recs

Way off if you ask me

The Indians have tons of holes and could finish in 5th if they don't watch out. The Twins are counting on Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson (That makes us Royals fans feel great about our rotation). I don't really think the White Sox will be anywhere near that bad. Their pitching won't allow that record. I can see the Royals winning 80 games if all goes well, 70 if we have big setbacks. My senses tell me that it will be in the middle. That leaves us with the Detroit Tigers.... They didn't really lose anybody and Gary Sheffield is their new DH/1B. I can see them winning 90-95 games easily.

Tigers 91-71
White Sox 84-78
Twins 81-81
Royals 76-86
Indians 69-93 (Wedge gets fired in May)

royaldaddy-Bob Hamelin's #1 fan

by royaldaddy on Feb 22, 2007 11:52 PM EST 0 recs

A little harsh

on KC, I think they will be about 70-75 wins. Also disagree the Indians have a deep rotation and some solid young talent, I think they will be in second and win the wild card. In order to do that, it hinges on the bullpen. The Twins will fall to fourth, I don't see their rotation being that good this year. White Sox are somewhere in the middle, it's weird that they are down for fourth according to PECOTA, they have too good of a lineup to not be in contention. Tigers will win again, they have too much talent not to.

lordbyronk

by lordbyronk on Feb 23, 2007 10:32 AM EST 0 recs

But still

A five game improvement and only 7 behind Chicago isn't that bad in light of the fact that PECOTA has projected all the individual Royals lower than I would have expected.

I respect the SABR guys but am not one myself. How much does the overall team's previous year's results figure into projections, e.g. does being a Yankee/Tiger/A/etc. mean you project higher because your team was a winner the previous season? If so, I think any projection taking all of last year into account would be misleading, as the Royals of April-June were a far different team than that of July-September. I would like to think KC is closer to that late-season almost .500 team than the early season "Hey brother, can you spare a win?" team. If so, then this team, which should be better than last year, should have the potential to challenge for .500.

by CentralChamps2009 on Feb 23, 2007 10:45 AM EST 0 recs

Picking the Twins to win is shocking to me

Their rotation after Santana is as bad as any of the recent Royals rotations. At best they are third, more likely fourth and hopefully last.

by chukar on Feb 23, 2007 11:01 AM EST 0 recs

Twins

I've learned to not underestimate the Twins. They seem to find a way to win over the last several years.

I think given the Royals track record over the last few years the 67 win team seems about right and to be honest..I'll take it. I don't think last years team was nearly as bad as what they were in April and May nor nearly as "good" as they were in August and September.

by Stook on Feb 23, 2007 11:37 AM EST 0 recs

I agree

Their record always seems well above their talent. I attribute much of this to their designing a team that plays well in that stupid dome which is much of why I strongly dislike (can't say hate anymore after Hardaway) that franchise. Weak hitters like Tyner slapping balls off that rug. I thought they should have been contracted when they weren't willing to build a real stadium. Other teams shouldn't be subjected to playing in that contraption.

Oh, and Dick Bremer is the worst homer ever. Spends the entire broadcast disparaging everything about the Royals and imagining the Twins are some kind of Yankeeesque dynasty.

Notice the projection shows them with fewest RA. With that rotation? Proejection loses all credibility.

by chukar on Feb 23, 2007 12:36 PM EST up 0 recs

every non-Royals announcer...

is a homer/yuppie/douche...except for Cubbies...a good announcer needs to have his grips on the neutral baseball tradition side of the ballgame and not just oh bad bad bad of the other team and good good good on his team...incredulous statements are abundant in bad announcers such as, "well if only this this and this didn't happen we would be whoopin em"...and if they are winning statements such as, "well, you can really give credit to so and so or we wouldn't be ahead"...once again this falls back on the cards/yanks thought of if something is going wrong I get to bitch and if something is going right I get to bitch more...I have even sent email to the Royals announcers, Lefiebre I think, about how much I appreciate listening to a game on the radio...I mean where else have you heard talk on "slow as a catcher" and "parking spot, easy to spot, easy to park, parking spot at KCI" and "you know you don't see many Elvis spottings anymore"...viva la Royals!!!...88 wins and counting

Buy the ticket, take the ride.

by PhattStairs on Feb 24, 2007 2:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Think about this

The Royals blew 31 saves last year, the league high. The league average is 20.7. Without doing anything besides grabbing a league average closer (IMHO we have two at least, Dotel and Nelson), we win 10 more games. That brings us to 72 wins, without a single other improvement.

by Cleveland on Feb 23, 2007 12:43 PM EST 0 recs

That's mostly true

In some cases, though, we go onto win the game in which we have blown the save.

Still, you are right -- we should win a bunch more games just on the basis of an improved bullpen and hopefully a steadier closer in Dotel.

by marbotty on Feb 23, 2007 1:00 PM EST up 0 recs

Absolutely true...

I would like to go back and find out how many BS were games that we ended up winning... maybe I'll be really bored Sunday.

by Cleveland on Feb 24, 2007 5:54 PM EST up 0 recs

Problem

Problem with PECOTA (and the other projection systems) is they don't factor in some important stuff. For one, I don't think it included Teahen's resurgence. It doesn't factor in Meche's huge improvement last year. It doesn't account for Perez's all star career before last year.

I take all these "projections" with a grain of salt. The Royals are easily a 70 win team now, with possibly a lot more if some of the cards start falling the right way.

by doublestix on Feb 23, 2007 6:26 PM EST 0 recs

yea...

but the royals depth chart also gives Dotel credit for being a really good closer, and DOES give Teahen credit for a solid season

FIRE BELL

by FireBell on Feb 23, 2007 7:54 PM EST 0 recs

I'm inclined to think

that most of PECOTA's quirks even out, but I still think the Royals are underrated because I think Meche and Hudson will be better than PECOTA projects. No system is perfect.

"Your best? Losers always whine about 'giving it their best.' Winners go home and fuck the prom queen."

"Carla was the prom queen."

by NHZ on Feb 23, 2007 8:36 PM EST 0 recs

I have always noticed...

the way a schedule is to start and how it goes after the all-star break are big factors...it seems like if we get off to a 2-10 start we are doomed...but if we get off to a 5-5 start we soar all season long...so the Royals should be good this year based on the second half resurgance from last year...I mean I still think if we beat the Yankees in their home opener we win 10 more games...PECOTA ain't got nuthin on me...Bill Pecota maybe...haven't you seen that rocking motor bike???

Buy the ticket, take the ride.

by PhattStairs on Feb 24, 2007 2:20 PM EST 0 recs

I'm writing of that shirt...

as work clothes on my taxes

Buy the ticket, take the ride.

by PhattStairs on Feb 24, 2007 2:28 PM EST 0 recs

Indians will be much better

And they'll take wins from someone, I think the White Sox are a likely candidate, although I don't see how Minny is gonna possibly win 90 games

by FlintHillsRoyal on Feb 24, 2007 2:49 PM EST 0 recs

Like Stook,

I am VERY hesitant to dismiss the Twins. Yes, there are some question marks in their rotation, but don't forget, they could always change their minds early on regarding Ponson and Ortiz and decide to go with the two promising youngsters in the rotation - I forget their names - but the current Twins plan is to have those youngsters start in AAA.

I still consider Minnesota the model franchise for how the Royals should be run. They are a more similar market to us than Atlanta (although I believe Minnesota and Atlanta share many similarities in their minor league development philosophies). Every time the Twins have been dismissed over the last half decade or so, they have proven the critics wrong and ended up contending.

Just saying...

by loyal2s dad on Feb 27, 2007 2:49 PM EST 0 recs