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Trade Deadline Open Thread: Dotel-Davies is Done

Jenn Sterger's covering the Trade Deadline for SI.com, right? Think of how effective she'd be as an inside information gatherer...

I'll keep this updated as news does or doesn't roll in. Will this trade deadline be the snore-fest many have predicted, or, as Tennyson said, will "some work of noble note, may yet be done"?

• Flanagan on Teahen's power outage.

• Rob Neyer will be chatting at ESPN at 12 ET.

• Rosenthal's latest includes no new news on Dotel, but does mention that Troy Glaus could be on the block.

• Will Carroll had this to say about the Dotel-Davies trade, the one that some people have referred to as done (as in completed) while others feel its distant:

A couple of days ago, Octavio Dotel was thought to be one of the top available relievers. Now, he's going to be dealt in a secondary deal made for Kyle Davies, a guy that the Braves coaching staff had lost faith in. How did Dotel's value drop--or did it? The Indians had their offer on the table (thought to be Ben Francisco), and the Tigers never seemed to jump in. The Dodgers haven't been able to do much of anything because of arguments about who's untouchable and who isn't within that organization. Royals GM Dayton Moore knows Kyle Davies from his days in the Braves organization, and that familiarity plus Davies' upside made this deal happen.

AJC on the Dotel-Davies rumor. Davies stats here.

• According to the Seattle PI, the Dotel-Davies deal is done, only official announcement is being delayed until the Teixeira deal goes final.

• The Cleveland Plain Dealer isn't giving up the ghost that the Tribe still remains interested in Dotel. According to the PD, Detroit is also a player.

• One odd slightly interesting thing about Davies, he's actually named "Hiram Kyle Davies", but appears to be known exclusively as Kyle. I'm shocked that someone growing up in Georgia and employed in baseball would drop Hiram.

Update [2007-7-31 13:45:59 by royalsreview]:

Jayon Stark reports that the Dotel-Davies trade is finalized, still just waiting on the Tex trade to go through.

******

Update [2007-7-31 14:51:3 by royalsreview]:

Jayson Stark has reported on ESPN's TV special that Dotel-Davies is done, final, official, and everything else.

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A depressing trade deadline, no doubt.
I guess we will find out what, if anything, has happened in a matter of hours.  I can only hope the Balentien offer by Seattle was a real one, or failing that, that some GM panics and ups his offer for Dotel.

Davies certainly doesn't excite me, but now that we can count down the number of minutes to the deadline, I'm more and more willing to settle for the package offered by Atlanta.  The birds of fortuity no longer seem alight on our shoulders.

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 10:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What did you think we were going to get?
Did you think all of the prospects talked about were actually going to be offered?  Did you think we were going to get Gutierrez, Kemp, Loney, Laroche?

There was never any reason to believe that the Royals were going to get a good, young major leaguer or a top prospect.  Dotel is a closer and none of the potential trade partners need a closer.  They just needed a setup man.  They are only looking for an additional good arm for their bullpens.  And Dotel is good, but not great.  Dotel is also frequently injured and he might go down at any moment.  And, of course, he's a 2-month rental.  All of this affects his trade value.

We will still probably get either Davies or Balentein.  Both are pretty good young prospects with uneven track records.  I'd be happy to get either one.  We should all be happy to get either one.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be ecstatic if we got Balentien
I consider him a great deal for Dotel.  I don't see it happening.  

I never expected Loney or Kemp, but I thought Gutierrez or LaRoche were options.  We may have to toss in a minor leaguer, as well, but I'd be okay with that.  

I don't think my expectations were unrealistic -- I just don't think we're going to get much of anything now.

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

let me also say the Linebrink deal
got me very excited.  

He's better than Dotel, although not incredibly so, and additionally he doesn't have the Established Closer credentials which makes some GMs salivate.

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What we're going to get...
...is the best offer Moore receives.  No one should be surprised that he wasn't offered Gutierrez or Laroche.  Dotel is a frequently injured pretty good closer, and that's it.  Young, very good players are just too valuable.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree...
when you figure that Dotel is a two month rent-a-player, has a history of injuries, has never been a good closer until this year (and isn't exactly setting the league on fire), then getting a 23 year old pitcher that has some stuff sounds pretty good to me. We were not going to get a #1 prospect for him, nor a 2, a 3, etc.

by nkkc on Jul 31, 2007 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was wondering this myself...
I think Grudz, Sanders, and Brown will all stay (unfortunately).
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How many non-Dotel Royals?
At this point, I'm going to guess zero.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent question
Grudz is likely staying put, Sanders has got to be a somewhat unattractive target to most teams (I believe the Dye trade ended the chances of him going to the Red Sox, which was probably his only possible destination), which really only leaves Greinke, Riske, and perhaps Brown as potential tradees.  

I don't see Moore parting with Greinke.  Brown might be a good option for some teams, except he's failed to have his typical hot second half this year.  So, that really leaves Riske, and I believe there was some rumblings yesterday that he might be headed to Atlanta for Thorman.  

Am I missing anyone?

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Grud and LaLa I guess
I dont think a Teahen trade is unthinkable, but I dunno who'd want him...

by royalsreview on Jul 31, 2007 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As a center field option
perhaps.  If the power comes back he's like a Sizemore type, if not he's more than adequate for the position.  Florida would be the ideal trading partner.  

by lordbyronk on Jul 31, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know what other people think...
but I would be bummed if we got rid of Greinke for anyone.  My opinion is purely from an emotional fanboy perspective, though.  I just think he's the coolest player in the league and completely insane.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you
Not sure I agree with the insanity charge, but I certainly share the fanboy love.

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hehe
I don't know, dude.  That slow batting practice ball he throws sometimes makes me wonder about the insanity.  It's a good insanity, though...that kind of closer insanity that baseball writers like to make up.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just want to
see him start talking to the ball like the crazy pitcher from along time ago, Byrdch or something like that.  I think he has completely lost his mind but I don't care as long as he throws strikes.

by TXroyal on Jul 31, 2007 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Before my time, but...
Fidrych was amusing.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Before my time also
I'm only 24 but I read about him not to long ago in a SI article.

by TXroyal on Jul 31, 2007 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you watch ESPN Classic...
they'll show him every so often.  
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I completely agree
I think he should also try throwing his eefus pitch, or what ever its called, every once in a while.  It worked when he was a starter and now that he is throwing harder it would work even better.  Also its pretty funny when batters get all out of position trying to slow themselves down to hit it after expecting a fastball.

by TXroyal on Jul 31, 2007 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kyle Davies?
Seriously, why? This dude sucks in the National League. I hope this is a bluff and Dayton just told some GM, "Oh, yeah. Well, I'll just deal him for Kyle Davies." With all of the names I've heard thrown around for Dotel, this one doesn't excite me. If this deal goes down straight up, Dayton will start being known as Shurholtz bitch. I'll reserve judgement until the deal is done. I refuse to believe that Dayton will make this deal. He's smarter than that, isn't he?

by royaldaddy on Jul 31, 2007 10:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Only if you believe this is a dumb deal...
which most don't.  Let's not forget he's a 23 year old pitcher...and very, very, very few pitchers are good at 23.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hard to judge since we don't know what the
other offers were

but yea, Davies is lame

then again, i thought the same about banny

What hath Bell wrought?

by FireBell on Jul 31, 2007 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reserve judgment
If we get Davies, I think you should reserve judgment until Davies pitches for the Royals for a while.

Moore and his crew have done a great job of scouting pitchers and picking up good pitchers that no one else thought was especially good (Meche, Bannister, Soria, and to a lesser extent De La Rosa).  A track record like that has built up a lot of trust in me.  Shouldn't it?

Davies has 3 very good pitches.  And he's still just 23.  He was clearly rushed to the majors.  There is a reason why the cynics at Rotoworld said this sounds like a good deal for the Royals.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree completely
Dotel for Davies sounds like a trade for the sake of making a trade.  I've seen better closers than Dotel, but the last thing the Royals need is another lousy young pitcher.  This organization has been plagued by lousy young pitchers (see Lumsden, etc.).

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another lousy young pitcher
like Bannister or Soria.  What is Moore thinking???

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bannister and Soria didn't have 6.15 career ERAs
Wasn't Bannister a decent pitcher for the Mets before getting hurt?

Rule V players like Soria are zero-risk; that's not trading a proven closer for a player with a 6+ career ERA (in the NL, at that).

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Davies has a lot of talent
And Moore and his scouts have done a great job of identifying pitching talent that others thought wasn't so great.  He has earned my trust.  If he really likes Davies, so do I.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Davies is no Bannister
I don't think a 6.15 ERA is misleading.  It's not like he was with the Rockies.

Davies is the type of pitcher I would enjoy seeing shelled every fifth day for the Cardinals.

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Moore, his front office and his scouts
...know more about Davies than either you or I do.  All you know about him is his stats.  And, by the way, those are major league stats from age 22 and 23.  I trust Moore on pitchers.  I think you should too.  Moore's track record should mean something.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Moore's track record????
This is the GM who traded MacDougal for two scrubs, one of whom has a 6+ ERA in AAA.

This is another case of the Royals getting burned at the trade deadline.  First, Herk Robinson was taken to the cleaners, followed by Allard Baird, now Moore is just as gullible.

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, Moore's track record
Meche signing
Soria pick up
Bannister trade

And you didn't like the Macdougal trade?  Have you seen his stats this year?  You might want to look them up.  You also might want to note that he's on the DL...again.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Davies' MLB stats speak for themselves
I don't really care if he can get hitters out in Burlington.

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Besides...
ERA is pretty meaningless when all the rest of his stats are above average to pretty darn good.  Its pretty silly to judge Davies as a failure at his age.  This is a good move.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not saying Davies is any of these guys, but...
Greg Maddux, ERA, first two years: 5.52, 5.61

Roy Halladay, cumulative ERA first three years: 5.77, including an Elarton-esque 4-7, 10.64 in 2000

Johan Santana, 6.49 ERA in 30 games his first year

Early returns aren't always definitive on pitching prospects.

by andrewmiller on Jul 31, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They all stunk!
Those stats speak for themselves.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does Flanagan read this site?
Seriously, his last two columns have been straight off RR topics: Buck's playing time and Teahen's lack of power. Whats next, a feature on Bell's multiple lineups?
What hath Bell wrought?

by FireBell on Jul 31, 2007 10:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think
...he's stupid enough to write a column about something as meaningless as Bell's use of multiple lineups.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

here comes the pitch, its a hanging curve
[insert joke about Flanagan being dumb enough to write about _ here]

"Flanagan has been dumb enough to write about KC radio gossip and ratings for years now"

by LeoBloom on Jul 31, 2007 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i actually like flanagan...
he's like a solid utility player.  nothing spectacular, but lots of singles.  i read him every day, so that's saying something.

by Billex Gordler on Jul 31, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Baseball Prospectus
is saying that the trade has happened this morning, but MLBtraderumors saying negative last night.  Any word one way or another?  

by lordbyronk on Jul 31, 2007 10:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

As far as I know...
it's not final yet.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BP has no inside nknowledge here
It appears they are reacting to last night's stories which said the deal was all but done.  There is more recent information out there which makes the deal look much more fuzzy.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not totally true
Carroll is pretty connected

by LeoBloom on Jul 31, 2007 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying BP doesn't know anything
But in today's Dotel reporting, they are reporting no new information.  They are just reporting generally on Dotel-Davies.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

2 maybe 3
I think they can get rid of Larue to either LAA or Atlanta. Also I think somebody will pick up either Sanders or Perez.  Also this is wishful thinking b/c I don't want to see any of them in uniform for the game tonight.

by TXroyal on Jul 31, 2007 10:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I might have to run around town naked...
if LaRue is gone.  That would be awesome.  Probably not going to happen though.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i don't know how he could get traded
unless it's as a throw in on another deal.

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can think of a few ways...
  1. The devil makes a GM do it
  2. Mafia puts some pressure on a GM
  3. Alien probing technology damages a GM's brain
  4. LaRue has some "pictures" of a GM
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

just think of it...
without LaRue, they call up Phillips, allowing for an amazing amount of new lineup possibilities, more grit, and Buck still only playing 60% of the time due to "finding out what we have with Phillips." I can harldy wait.

by nkkc on Jul 31, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have faith in Buddy...
to never play a grit-less Phillips
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm
6) Larue discovers the cure for cancer, and all the teams want him for the publicity.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Atlanta?
Any word on what Atlanta is doing about a backup catcher? Any possibility if the Dotel-Davies trade goes through that we could throw in LaRue for some minor leaguer?

by SLUGERRR on Jul 31, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Davies for Dotel
Definitely a bit of a downer if that's the case. I didn't think we were getting a blue-chipper for him, but Kyle Davies?
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 31, 2007 11:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rushed pitching prospect
Clearly he wasn't ready for the majors at 21, 22 or 23.  But that's still quite young for a pitching prospect with very good stuff.  I like his 3 very good pitches.  And we could use some starting pitching depth.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jenn Sterger would pique my interest anytime
Especially if the article or report included a full shot of her... heh, heh.

On a serious note, I love the fact that GMDM is using a sell-high vet to acquire young pitching talent.

May the Royals keep wisely stock-piling potential arms for the near future.

by KC Blue on Jul 31, 2007 11:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Scouting Notebook 2005
on young Mr. Kyle Davies

"After doing things his way during his first two years in the Atlanta farm system, Davies decided to take the Braves' advice and alter the mechanics of his delivery prior to the 2003 slate.  He overcame some inital awkwardness to put together a solid showing before dominating at every step of the 2004 campaign.

Davies is one of the fiercest competitors in the minors.  His changeup rates as the best in the Atlanta system, and his hard fastball, which has increased in velocity from 86-87mph to 92-93mph since revamping his mechanics, can be overpowering.

Davies' command has made significant strides of late and the consistency of his slider will determine how soon he is pitching in Atlanta."

He's either a gem or a right handed Odalis Perez.

by howserfan on Jul 31, 2007 11:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One analyst's opinion (from BP)
On a potential Davies-Dotel trade:

Christina Kahrl : I don't think we need to get overly worked up over whether or not Octavio Dotel's stock has fallen or risen--keep your eye on the player, not the stage. He's the sixth-best Royals reliever this season, and more of an ex-famous person than the guy who handed Billy Wagner leads. For the Royals, this was a well-excecuted single-season rental for a player whose 2008 option (effectively mutual, since his team can nix his exercising his player option) they should have had zero interest in exercising. The timing would be impeccable, as Dotel's only just about to start getting into his appearances bonuses, which might bring him another million dollars or so this season. Four or five years of Davies under control, and what that could be worth, represents an excellent pay-off, but not to rip on the Braves, it was also a price they could afford to pay, given the amount of young pitching coming up in their system, and their obvious frustration with Davies.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 11:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ding ding ding
I think the issue of how long Davies will be cheap and under Royal control is the real key here

by royalsreview on Jul 31, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree... with the cheapness...
Small Market teams have to look for bargains.  Davies may just be this year's bargain basement trade gem.  Bring him on....

by grudz69 on Jul 31, 2007 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't it about time a final decision was made?
If I were Moore right now, I'd say, "John, it's time to shit or get off the pot.  Finalize this deal now or I'm going with Seattle and taking that kid with the weird last name."

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 12:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think my girlfriend is getting pissed...
at me for staying on the computer waiting for the trade deadline to end.  
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i think its 4
What hath Bell wrought?

by FireBell on Jul 31, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade Deadline
I saw some where that is was 3:00 PM EST but I'm pretty sure it is 4:00 PM EST.
Scott Elarton gives that short kid with no athletic ability hope that he can make it big some day.

by MileHighKCfan on Jul 31, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope we keep Dotel and
lock him up for a few years if Dayton doesn't get what he wants. The bullpen is stacked.

by RTC Fan on Jul 31, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Multi-year extension for Dotel?
That's wasted money.  He is injured most of the time.  We'd get very little for our money.  I'd much rather get a B prospect who is cheap and might actually turn into something.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you, RTC....
but I think we're alone on this one.

by natemaestro on Jul 31, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Would you be happy with
3 years/$21 million and then him playing about half of each of those seasons with an ERA around 4?  Because that is I think what would happen.

And that would be $7 million less per season that the Royals would have to spend on FA pitchers and position players and/or less money to use to lock down our young players long-term.  Spending money is a zero-sum game.  YOu spend it on one guy and that is less money to spend on others.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that may be a bit
of oversimplification.

Regardless, most on the board agree that Soria or Greinke or both will be moved to the rotation next year.  Let's split the difference and say Soria goes to the rotation, and Greinke stays.  If we don't sign Dotel, that we will have lost two good (yes, good) arms in the bullpen.  Not to mention the stability factor.

I'll quoting Joe Posnanski, because he verbalizes what I've been saying here for some time:

No, he has done something much larger. His presence has given the Royals' bullpen an entirely new identity. The numbers before and after Dotel are staggering (before Dotel, the bullpen ERA was 4.93; since, it is 2.91). Even more than that, Dotel has given Royals' pitchers a chance to develop at their own speed, at their own pace, under less pressure.

Look:

"Zack Greinke before Dotel: 1-4, 4.85 ERA, league hit .322 against him.

Zack Greinke after Dotel: 3-1, 3.72 ERA, league hit .227 against him.

Joakim Soria before Dotel: 1-2, 3.74 ERA, league hit .247 against him.

Joakim Soria after Dotel: 0-1, 1.19 ERA, league hit .139 against him.

David Riske before Dotel: 0-2, 3.66 ERA, league hit .294 against him.

David Riske after Dotel: 1-0, 1.24 ERA, league hit .206 against him.

And so on. There are many reasons why you sign a free agent, but one of the least-appreciated is how his charisma will affect the team and the players you are trying to develop. Dotel, in ways that are not always easy to explain, has helped make the Royals a much better team. Kansas City is now five games over .500 since May 13 -- and the bullpen is a big reason, and Dotel is a big reason for that."

And no, I would not be happy with paying a player $7mm/yr for half a season.  Who would?  I don't think that will happen, though.

Basically, what I'm saying is, I feel it's a risk worth taking.  As I said earlier, I understand your argument.  My opinion differs.  That's all.

by natemaestro on Jul 31, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're not alone
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Jul 31, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same story, different name
If we truly have a choice between Davies and Balentien, Moore is making a bad choice. We already have our fair share of talented, head case pitchers who were rushed to the major leagues.

How about getting something we don't have, a talented young outfielder with 30-40 HR potential?

This isn't about what Dotel is worth or not, this is about choosing between the options we have. Moore is blinded by his knowledge of the Braves system and the fact that he drafted the kid and wants to give him more chances to succeed.

Meanwhile we have a ML lineup devoid of power and no OF in the system anywhere near ready that can produce any power. We're filling our 3rd or 4th need before our #1 (with a bullet).

Hey Dayton, if you want to see a young guy with great talent live up to his potential, how about working on Zack Greinke a little bit and letting your old boss deal with his own headaches.

by Big Guy on Jul 31, 2007 12:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

not bad logic at all
What hath Bell wrought?

by FireBell on Jul 31, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We don't know if he is "blinded"
It may be that Moore and his scouts actually like Davies better than Balentien.  And given the success Moore and his scouts have had with picking up pitchers that no one thought was particulary good and recognizing how good they actually are (Meche, Soria, Bannister), I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

And what do we know about Balentien?  The he's never had a good minor league season until now, among other things.  Is this one good season for real?  Hard to say.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's about holes
We have a deficit in the organization in the OF. No power in the Majors, none in the minors. We have lots of AAAA starting pitching prospects, including guys in our ML bullpen right now. Perhaps Dayton has something big planned in FA in terms of stocking the OF with power, but it seems to me we'd be better off improving an area of weakness than adding another "potential" to an already crowded field.

by Big Guy on Jul 31, 2007 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good point, nyroyal...
the key being "moore AND his scouts".  a huge difference between the dayton moore royals and the allard baird royals is that moore trusts his scouts to do their work and acts on their advice.  this despite the fact that he came up as a scout.  contrast that with baird who, because he also came up as a scout, always had the last word on scouting-type projections.

if royals scouts like davies more than balentein (sp?) then i feel like they've earned the right to make that call.  in any event, they know more about scouting than i'll ever know, so when the trade comes down, i'll just have to shrug and hope that it works out.  

by Billex Gordler on Jul 31, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everyone knew how good Meche is
They just weren't desperate enough to add another year and another million per.

The Royals were paying for street cred in addition to paying for the pitcher.

I give Dayton plenty of credit for making this team improve, but let's not get carried away. Gil Meche was one of the most sought-after free agents last winter, not a hidden nugget that all-knowing Dayton mined.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Jul 31, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wrong
Everyone knew how good Meche is?  Hell no.  Were you paying attention this offseason?  Everyone, ESPN, Fox sports, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, everyone was saying that he's a #4-5 starter who is likely to have an ERA around 5.  Now he's pitching like an ACE.  Moore and his people saw it and he deserves great credit.

You are wrong, wrong, wrong.  Every analyst was saying that Meche was not even quite mediocre and wasn't worth half that much money.  Now you are revising history.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The heck with analysts...
...why not pay attention to what other GMs were saying? Toronto and I think also the Cubs were offering the guy 4 years for $40 million, and Toronto's GM was vocally upset about having been outbid. Is that #4-5 starter money?

Does an extra year and an extra million per make Moore more of a genius for "recognizing" Meche than those guys?

Understand, please, that I like Moore and I'm not downplaying what he's done for our favorite ball club.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Jul 31, 2007 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Other GM's
There were multiple stories this offseason quoting other GM's as saying that this was a stupid signing where the Royals vastly overspent for a pitcher who was mediocre at best.  If you think the rest of baseball thought highly of Meche, then you are just wrong or you weren't paying attention this offseason.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Money on the table talks
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Jul 31, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How many teams had money on the table?
Other than the Royals?  Two?  And certainly they were less willing to make a commitment than Moore.  

Did you read any articles on FA signings this offseason.  Writers, columnists, GM's, front office personnel, EVERYONE was lampooning the Royals as making obviously the worst signing of the offseason and maybe one of the worst of all time.  More deserves a lot of credit for finding a diamond in the rough in Meche...and Bannister...and Soria.

And now Davies?  Maybe.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, the two other teams
were not willing to pay as much. That's because they don't need to overpay in order to attract quality free agents to join their teams. The Royals, on the other hand, usually have agents ignoring calls if they see "816" at the beginning of a number on their caller ID.

Dayton Moore deserves heaps of credit. Even though I'm unwilling to treat Gil Meche as a find that only he was aware of, I give him credit for identifying him as someone worth making the extra effort to pursue.

But that said, real baseball people knew Meche had great potential. Two other teams were willing to make 40 million dollar commitments to him. Others weren't, because they either had their eyes on bigger stars or because starting pitching wasn't their most pressing need. And no doubt many thought Meche would be a bad signing as well.

But Dayton wan't the only one who had Gil on his shopping list last winter.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Jul 31, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Subject.
"That's because they don't need to overpay in order to attract quality free agents to join their teams. "

Have you met the Cubs?  They defined overpaying for attracting "quality" free agents.  That's what they do and have always done.  

Honestly of the three teams that were interested in Meche, the Jays were the only one I trusted to make a decent pickup (we didn't know about Moore yet)...and the Jays later went off on Meche saying that if he wanted to be on the Royals, then he was a loser.  

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get
Why some are so down on Davies. He has pitched well at every level of the minor leagues. He's struggled in two seasons in the big leagues, but many good pitchers do, particularly at his age. I don't think Davies for Dotel straight up is a fair deal, but if its Davies and Lillibridge, I would be pleased as punch. Pitching is the currency of baseball, and we need to accumulate as many good arms as we can. There are no sure things with any pitcher.

That being said, I'd still rather have Wlad. But I won't be "depressed" with Davies/Lillibridge.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 31, 2007 12:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Davies and Balentein
I think Davies is every bit as promising a prospect as Balentein is.  I think we'll get one or the other.  And I doubt there will be throw-ins.  And that looks like what the market for Dotel is right now.  Nobody is going to be unloading a package of prospects on us.  I don't think...

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's hard to question Dayton's scouting
As you've pointed out, he's done a pretty good job, at least on the pitching side.  So you very well may be right by saying we should be happy to get Davies.  (And who am I to judge?  I was lobbying for Igawa over Meche in the preseason.)

That said, I think you're selling Balentien a bit short when you say he's only had one good year.  His annual OPS has been:

2003 Rk 1.021
2004 A/A+ .833
2005 A+ .891
2006 AA .777
2007 AAA .933

That looks to me to be at the very least to be 3 decent seasons, one mediocre season, and one great season (2007).  You could make the point that he's had 3 great seasons ('03, '05, and '07) and two mediocre/decent seasons.  

What I like is that he's hit double figure homeruns every year, with 20+ or more 3 times now, and has had 10+ steals 4 years in a row now.

His power coupled with his speed makes him look to be an impact player.  I don't know that we have anyone in the system (except for possibly Lubanski) that has an impact bat and is this close to contributing.

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think this guy looks good too...
and he will probably be an above average hitter.  However, there is about the same chance at Davies being an above average pitcher.  Pitching trumps hitting, thus I think we should go with Davies if all other things are equal.

I won't complain either way.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like this kid
He looks like a good prospect.  But there is a reason he wasn't much talked about before this season.  He wasn't on anyone's top 100 prospects list.  He's a pretty good prospect and his stock is rising.  But I like the looks of Davies too.  They both have somewhat uneven track records.  They are both young and they both have upside potential.  We could definitely use Balentien's power.  We could also use at least one more good SP.  I'm happy to get either of them and I don't think it is at all obvious that one is a better choice than the other.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only thing that makes me prefer Wlad
Is that he seems to be trending upward, whereas Davies's development seems to be stalling a bit.

I also think it's easier to predict an offensive player's career based on minor league stats than a pitcher's.  It's less risky, I think. (Shealy notwithstanding).

If Davies can develop into a #2 or #3 starter, though, he would likely be the player with more overall value to our team, so really, he'd be worth a shot.

I'm happy with either at this point, too, particularly when the alternative is not trading Dotel at all.

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The more arms in the system the better
your organization. Dayton is going to keep adding pitchers to raise the level of competition and the depth of our minor leagues.

by RTC Fan on Jul 31, 2007 12:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree
But also disagree.  Moore isn't above trading young arms, sometimes for players that don't make sense.

In the past year, he's traded, or attempted to trade away, the following pitchers under 23 years of age:

Howell
Sisco
Burgos
Cordier
Nunez

Only one of those trades was for another pitcher, which coincidentally was the only trade I actually liked at the time.  

Here's the other thing, 4 of those pitchers were ranked among the Royals top 10 pitching prospects at the time (or as recently as the year prior, if they had major league experience)  The other being Nunez, who was in the top 15, I believe.  

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Proctor For Betemit going down
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2955753
Scott Elarton gives that short kid with no athletic ability hope that he can make it big some day.

by MileHighKCfan on Jul 31, 2007 12:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Braves offer Texeria for Dotel and Shealy.
is this true? Braves offer Texeria for Dotel and Shealy. I heard Royals wanted Texeria but Texas wouldn't trade to same league.

by beavisyeah on Jul 31, 2007 12:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Are you smoking crack?
Scott Elarton gives that short kid with no athletic ability hope that he can make it big some day.

by MileHighKCfan on Jul 31, 2007 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hilarious
Nobody's buying that one.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just a runor on the holdup
Ya, heard it caused Texas to wanna void it but the offer was withdrawn.

by beavisyeah on Jul 31, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Was this rumor reported anywhere
in any news media outlet?  Any at all?  Didn't think so.  Go away, junior.  We have enough media reported rumors.  We don't need any manufactured in your drug addled brain.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

According to MLBtraderumors.com
The Yankees are slowing down their bid at Eric Gagne. Also, it is being reported that the Dye to the BoSox is slowing down due to the no-trade obstacle.
Scott Elarton gives that short kid with no athletic ability hope that he can make it big some day.

by MileHighKCfan on Jul 31, 2007 12:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What is holding up the
Texeria trade. The physicals should be over by now. I would really like this one to be finalized so the Royals can move on.

by TXroyal on Jul 31, 2007 12:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Now the Dye to BoSox trade
is looking a little more likely. Apparently the BoSox are considering throwing in DelCarmen with Pena if Dye will waive his no-trade clause.
Scott Elarton gives that short kid with no athletic ability hope that he can make it big some day.

by MileHighKCfan on Jul 31, 2007 12:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Why would Dye care...
if they threw in another player. This sounds fishy to me. Now, if Chicago is going to agree to guarantee to pay his performance incentives, then I can see them asking the Sox for more. But this seems like half-ass reporting to me.

by Big Guy on Jul 31, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

During the trade deadline
it's all half-ass reporting because none of these guys honestly know what's goin on. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the stuff we read or hear hasn't be passed down 5 or more channels by the time it gets to us.
Scott Elarton gives that short kid with no athletic ability hope that he can make it big some day.

by MileHighKCfan on Jul 31, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I got into the ESPN Neyer chat
I asked his opinion on Davies-Dotel (natch) and he said he would wait to comment in detail until he knew the deal was finalized. (if you care, I'm Brian from Philly in the chat.)

A little later down, however, he says he is "sympathetic" to Moore if GMDM thinks he can improve Davies, given how much Moore know about him.

by Eppenweb on Jul 31, 2007 12:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That sounds very
encouraging.
Scott Elarton gives that short kid with no athletic ability hope that he can make it big some day.

by MileHighKCfan on Jul 31, 2007 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ESPN's trade dead line
special is just starting if anyone cares.

by TXroyal on Jul 31, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

30 minutes in and no word on Dotel
They talk about Texeira, Gagne and Dye.  But not a single word on Dotel.  Now that's some great reporting!

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They mentioned him twice...
but there wasn't anything new.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ESPN finally reporting on Dotel
From Jayson Stark: since the ATL deal isn't final, many teams are calling the Royals to make offers.  ATL still waiting on Texeira's physical to finalze that deal.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 2:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Git "R Dun, Dayton
If Davies becomes the PTBNL in the Texeira deal, I hope GMDM goes immediately to Seattle's offer. In fact, I think they should accept Seattle's offer now.

On a side note, isn't the idea of a PTBNL that you can NAME THEM LATER? What's the point if you hold up the deal to name them and have them get a physical?

by Big Guy on Jul 31, 2007 2:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

BP on the ATL hold up
David (San Francisco, CA): Is Dotel to the Braves really gonna happen?

Trade Deadline Team: As soon as the Rangers get the Matt Harrison MRI results and sign off on the Braves' deal, then Atlanta will make the trade with the Royals. If Texas doesn't like what they of Harrison's arm then all bets are off.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 2:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Gammons sez
Schuerholz is telling Dayton to take a better deal if it comes along. I think he may be helping Dayton drive up the price on Dayton by floating the rumor of this "agreement."

There is also talk some teams are pissed that Dayton settled for a lesser offer than what they were offering because he knows Atlanta.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 31, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I hate this....
Now we have pissed off teams... That's great. Can we take Wlad and be done with it now?
-- Royals Delegate to the land of the Salmon and Moose (Seattle)

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Jul 31, 2007 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We haven't pissed off anyone
While Moore waited, other teams called him.  He said, no because he was waiting on the Atlanta deal.  Who gets pissed from that?

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well
The consensus around the other blogs I have been reading is that most GMs offer for Dotel think Davies is awful, and that their offers are quite superior. This has caused them to be pissed.
-- Royals Delegate to the land of the Salmon and Moose (Seattle)

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Jul 31, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's silly
Other GM's make offers and those offers aren't accepted and so those GM's are pissed?  Ridiculous.  Their offers weren't taken and they are professionals and so they move on.  That happens dozens of times in a season.  GM's don't get pissed when their offer is rejected in favor of another GM's offer.

And I think that stuff about most GM's thinking Davies is crap is pure BS.  Stark is reporting that while the trade was on hold, Atlanta was getting independent offers (plural) for Davies.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dotel "on sale"
The other GMs were asked to give up a ML ready, up and coming position player. They perceive Davies as a failed starting pitching prospect, hence, we're "giving" Atlanta a lower price for Dotel. They don't feel we negotiated in good faith as they were not allowed to counter offer at the level of Davies.

Moore has to be careful that we don't work ourselves into this "Atlanta's little brother" or Dayton Moore's home for wayward Braves" persona. It will make it harder for us to trade with other teams in the future.

by Big Guy on Jul 31, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Evidently,
Texas likes several ATL prospects better than Davies - one of them with a questionable shoulder.

NYRoyal likes stats to back up our positions, so here's something from Jay Jaffe at BP:

Defining a significant ML career as one accumulating 10.0 WARP, only 6 of the last 80 Braves prospects traded ever reached this significant level. The point of his article was, more or less, buyer beware when dealing with ATL.

I'm in the camp of take the Seattle deal instead, if it is for Balentien.

by loyal2s dad on Jul 31, 2007 2:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

the key is that...
our current GM was the BRAVES director of player personnel when all of those trades were done!!!!  that is, KC's very own GM, Dayton Moore was the very guy helping deciding which prospects to keep and which to trade!!

by Billex Gordler on Jul 31, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ESPN: Tex deal done, no Davies in that deal
He is free to be traded to KC if that deal gets done.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 31, 2007 2:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm sorry I disagree with most of you about Davies
I am so depressed.
-- Royals Delegate to the land of the Salmon and Moose (Seattle)

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Jul 31, 2007 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm just happy we got something out of him
I was afraid we wouldn't.   That said, Davies clearly wasn't my first choice.  

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would've preferred releasing Dotel
Are the Royals trying to make us miss Scott Elarton?  I know I'd rather have Elarton back than Davies.

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you kidding?
You've lost all credibility now.  Davies is a talented, very young player with a lot of talent.  And you are writing him off as worthless?  I trust Moore a hell of a lot more than you.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I apologize that I don't care for 6+ ERA pitchers.
I don't care if they're 23 or 43.  I don't want crappy pitching!

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ahh...
You are silly.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's silly about that?
A 6.15 career ERA is just plain lousy.  Furthermore, ERAs tend to rise in the AL.  There's a good chance if he had thrown those innings in the AL, his ERA would be in the 7 neighborhood.

He's played enough games that his ERA isn't the result of one bad night at Coors Field.

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What is silly
is that you are writing off a pitcher based on ERA at 22 and 23.  That's really weak.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the Royals had traded a struggling AAA pitcher
My expectations would be lower.  Here's what will happen.  The bullpen will torch lots of games, which those of you in the anti-Bell camp will use as the case against retaining the manager.

Frankly this type of trade reinforces my view that Bell deserves an extension.

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're losing it here...
NYRoyal seems to me to be one of the few people in the pro-Bell (or at least keep Bell) camp.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He is losing it, and I'm pretty neutral on Bell
I'm neither pro-Bell nor anti-Bell.  I think Bell is very average.  I'm only for trading him if someone can come up with a legimately better option.  I've yet to hear a good argument for someone else.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we've had this argument before...
cause nothing about him makes me think average.  That being said, as an anti-Bell guy, I didn't even use Elarton as an excuse against Bell so I won't be using this kid either.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ERAs are very subjective and context dependent...
and in this case, the context is that he's extremely young and needs to work on those walks...something that will probably happen.  

In addition, Dotel isn't very good...so we needed to get rid of him.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying Dotel was the greatest
But this was a trade made for the sake of making a trade, and teams that do this get burned.  This is Dye for Perez all over again, although at least Perez had ONE good Denver-inflated season.

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Honestly...
even if it was a trade for the sake of making a trade...I'm happy for it!  Why keep what is an aging average pitcher for two months when one has the possibility of getting a young pitcher for five years...that's a lot of time to figure it out.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dye for Perez?
you're comparing dotel to jermaine dye?  interesting.

by Billex Gordler on Jul 31, 2007 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, worthless?
No, but his 14 HRs given up in 63 innings last year of MLB is terrifying.
-- Royals Delegate to the land of the Salmon and Moose (Seattle)

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Jul 31, 2007 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was a deal for the future
He's not going to step in this year and be a good starter.  But he has a hell of a lot of talent and he's 23.  That's big.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Worst.overreaction.ever
Really silly and really baseless.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
I don't think much of Davies, and I certainly hope I am dead wrong.

Contraction? Have you lost your mind?

-- Royals Delegate to the land of the Salmon and Moose (Seattle)

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Jul 31, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He has lost his mind
All from a deadline trade of a pretty good closer rental.  Davies makes him want Elarton or contraction?  Someone needs to take his meds.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Elarton's career ERA is 0.84 below Davies
And that's with Denver-inflated seasons.

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The fact that you equate the two
shows that you know nothing of Davies except for his major league stats.  Or should I say SOME of his major league stats.  Dig a little deeper.  You're off the deep end, man.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ML stats are the best way to judge players
I also believe that Barry Bonds is a greater player than Shane Costa.  I believe that Greg Maddux is a better pitcher than Mike Wood, as well.

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ML stats at age 21, 22 and 23
Did you see the posts above which discuss the stats of a number of very good pitchers when they were called up in their first couple of seasons?  You judge too soon and you use too little.  And then you fly off the deep end.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's been miserable in eastern Missouri
With arrogant Cardinal fans on top of the world.  If Davies is the Royals future, maybe we'd be better off.

Remember Charlie Finley ran the A's into the ground in the 1960s.  KC was better off with them leaving and getting a new team.  Perhaps it's time to start over again.

by jbrocato on Jul 31, 2007 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Our future?
I'm happy we got the kid...but I don't think any of us are expecting the second coming!  He does have a shot at being a solid #3 guy and we got him for a steal.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can dump the Royals whenever you like
If you think the Royals future is so awful, you are free to dump them and become another team's fan at any time.

Saying this was a trade for the sake of a trade shows you how little you know about Davies.  In fact, it is clear that you know nothing about him other than some of his stats.  

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i hope there's more to this deal
i just hope the braves take larue off our hands as a favor in this deal in exchange for a single or double-A type prospect as was reported earlier.  straight up, davies for dotel is a steal for the braves.  dayton should probably stop rolling dice for 'his' guys, even if he has been right about pitchers in the past.  i bet this davies guy turns out to be a jorge de la rosa type.  his walk and strikeout numbers make me think this.  another great stuff, control problem, long shot type guy to me.  not enough for a league average to league-above-average closer.
pat

by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Jul 31, 2007 2:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think
we might have been able to get more, but it's not bad getting a 23 year old starter with good stuff for a free-agent pick up closer that essentially cost us nothing

by Buck McCoy on Jul 31, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

does anyone know if we're still getting the other
prospects previously mentioned with the deal?

Or is it Dotel for Davies straight up?

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 3:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Final details aren't out
but all of the brief statements saying the deal is now done are just saying Dotel and Davies.  We shouldn't expect more.  But we'll see when it is officially announced.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

in light of the linebrink deal
I don't think it's gauche to expect more, especially when it looked like at least two of the guys in that deal are potentially as good as or better than Davies.

It was also heavily rumored we were getting two more propects in addition to Davies.  I guess I shouldn't have gotten my hopes up too much, but it's hard not to be disappointed.  

 

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No analysts seem surprised
So far, what I've heard and read from ESPN and Baseball Prospectus, no one is surprised.  They think we got what we could expect from him.  Objective sources think it was a fair deal at market value.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True.
Most GMs are smart enough to not offer up the farm for a limited time guy like Dotel though.  It would have been nice to get something extra, but in a year or two...we'll be happy with Davies even if he turns into a decent middle reliever.  He's young, cheap, and can still improve.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And maybe we can trade him
in a couple years for another young starting pitching prospect who has stalled in the Braves system. Jane, get me off this crazy thing!!

by Big Guy on Jul 31, 2007 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thoughts
The braves got us a YOUNG starting pitcher. When my friend told me this last night as I was barnstorming home back from LA I was pissed, and then I found out today that Davies is only 23 years old! I think at the very least we have someone to replace Odalis in the rotation. And he will be better, and he will also be cheaper, and more!

by wildthang on Jul 31, 2007 3:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This makes him desirable
  1. Very good fastball which he can spot wherever he wants it
  2. An excellent changeup
  3. A very good curveball
  4. Good minor league stats
  5. He's only 23 and has lots of years of improvement, quality and inexpensive performance ahead of him.
  6. His poor major league performance came from ages 21, 22 and 23.
Read up on him.  Actually learning about him might help you with this.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Davies
His ceiling is a #3 or #4 starter and we got that for a 2 month rental of Dotel, who was the 6th best member of our pen according to WXRL.  If we can get a starter to stop the back end of our rotation from hemmoraging then it was a great deal.  Other scenario's are woulda, coulda, shoulda?  He has a lot of value, let's give him the benefit of the doubt and see what he can do.

by lordbyronk on Jul 31, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BP's quick take on this trade:
_basicslop (Albuquerque): Since the Dotel to Atlanta deal has gone though I have this to ask: I was hoping the Royals would get a top-tier prospect for Dotel, like Hu. But I also knew we needed to add depth to our pitching. Instead we end up with Davies... How the hell should I feel about this?

Trade Deadline Team: You should feel, well, 'ok'. It's not like the Royals turned down Hu and went for Davies instead. They weren't going to get a top prospect for Dotel, and they decided to get something instead of nothing, hoping they can fix Davies and that a change of scenery will do some good as well.-

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That makes sense
It looks like the market functioned here like it was supposed to.

Basically, Dotel was something between the fourth and sixth best pitcher in our 'pen.

Two months of him isn't worth that much and what we got in return probably isn't much but theoretically could be a lot.

Even if it turns out to be a lost opportunity, not that big of one.  We don't know for a fact that Seattle was going to give up the players mentioned.

This is the negative view of Keith Law at ESPN.

The Royals get ex-prospect Kyle Davies. Davies was a top prospect when he was coming up through Atlanta's system, and they liked him enough that they refused to include him in the Tim Hudson deal, offering Dan Meyer instead. As it turns out, Davies has been awful in over 200 big-league innings, with no indication that he's getting any better. His fastball command is still poor, his control hasn't been good since he was in Double-A in 2004, and the only thing his average changeup does for him is ensure that lefties don't hit him any harder than righties do. I'm not sure what the Royals see in Davies, since we now have a significant body of evidence indicating that he isn't good enough to pitch in the majors. The charitable view is that he's a project and the Royals believe they can fix him. Given the reported asking price for Dotel from other clubs -- the Seattle Post-Intelligencer has reported that the Royals and Mariners were discussing Wladimir Balentien, for example -- this is a major letdown for Royal fans.

by howserfan on Jul 31, 2007 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Will we ever really know?
What else was out there? If you put this in the context of Davies or nothing, sure, take Davies. If the other offers that were out there were legitimate, we got hosed.

Our wish was for a position player. We have little to nothing in our MLs right now that suggest ML prospects at nearly any position. I ask "how did we end up with another AAAA starting pitcher who will have to work his way into the starting rotation?"

Last night was a perfect example: good pitching performance from Meche eclipsed by the complete ineffectiveness of our offense against a young pitcher with a 5+ ERA.

by Big Guy on Jul 31, 2007 3:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's my thought on the...
Balentien vs Davies thing.  It might be a little simplified, but i see four scenarios.
  1. Balentien is better and we got hosed.
  2. Davies is better and we did good.
  3. They both turn out good, but given that pitching is more valuable than hitting...we're able to trade Davies later for more profit than Balentien
  4. They both suck.  It didn't matter.
Since both are still relative unknowns, I think we had to go with the pitcher.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Except
Sure, pitching is usually more valuable than hitting. But we have a TON of guys just like Davies and none just like Balentein.

Seriously, is Davies a better prospect than Greinke? How about Hochevar? Soria? Lumsden and Buckner I suppose, but how many 2 and 3rd starters do you need?

Now Balentein? He'd immediately be our top OF prospect, no question. He might even be our starting LF for the rest of the year.

Who is "better" is always against the context of how a player can help an organization. WB could have helped us much more than Davies.

by Big Guy on Jul 31, 2007 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We need SP depth
And yes, he's better than Lumsden and Buckner, I think.  Most pitching prospects don't pan out.  That is why you need as many as possible.  And we definitely have holes in our rotation.  We didn't have enough.  We needed more.  We also need power.  I'm sure Moore will look into addressing that as well.

And we don't know how good Balentien is.  No one was talking about him before this season.  He was on no one's top 100 prospect list.  How good is he?  I'd like to hear some objective analysts speak to this.  All I see is a bunch of fans pointing to one year of good stats.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What if we had been offered Betemit?
That would have been a trade I could get excited about.  

I can't believe the Dodgers would prefer Scott Proctor over Octavio Dotel.

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hopeful
I was so hoping for Balentien (I picked him up for my minor league fantasy team a month ago) but we have no idea if he was even offered.  And so far, I love Moore's track record on acquiring young pitchers.  Again, a lot of pitchers stats sucked when they were brought up early.  
Where's he going to go now?  Omaha?  Are they going to send Nunez back down and put Davies in the rotation?  I hope somehow we could also get Odie traded and put Davies in that spot.

Also, two ways to look at GMDM and the Braves:  either he knows the players inside and out and is picking them off one at a time, like Davies and TPJ, or the Braves are using him.

I hope it's the first one.

Matty486

by Matty486 on Jul 31, 2007 3:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

TPJ sucks
I'm sorry to say it, but he really does.  His numbers across the board are either on par with or worse than Berroa's.  And that includes fielding statistics.

Let's also not forget that he made his MLB debut at age 25, two years older than Berroa did.

Sorry for the rant.  I guess I'm just a bit upset with Moore right now.  Hopefully, Davies will pan out to be a great pitcher and I will look like an idiot.   Fortunately, Davies did have some excellent seasons in the minors, so hopefully that will translate to success in the majors sooner rather than later.    

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure
TPJ isn't the greatest SS, but I don't find a .284 avg this late in the season as "sucking"...how many people thought he would even be cracking .250 at the beginning of the season?  Not very many... He may not be the SS of the future, but he definitely has not sucked by any means

by Buck McCoy on Jul 31, 2007 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Advantage: Pena
Berroa 2006: .234/.259/.333
Pena, Jr. 2007: .284/.300/.379

by andrewmiller on Jul 31, 2007 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no question
Almost anything would be an upgrade over Berroa 2006.  But really, all we're saying here is, this pile of poop is better than that bag of turd.

Career-wise, here are the numbers:

Berroa: .263/.305/.384
Pena: .278/.296/.375

Keep in mind, that line by Berroa includes what was one of the worsts seasons in history by a shortstop, so even with 2006 dragging Berroa down, he's still on top.  

Career Fielding Numbers

Berroa: .964 Fldg% 4.46 Range Factor
Pena:  .962 Fldg%  3.86 Range Factor

Grim, yes?  But I guess he's a semi-decent stopgap and is likely playing better than Berroa would have this year, unless Berroa reverted to his old form.  

The main reason I don't like TPJ is because we gave up Eric Cordier for him, whom Baseball America had named our #6 overall prospect going into 2007.  Seems like a waste to me.  Had we not given up so much for him, I'd be far less critical.

by marbotty on Jul 31, 2007 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think
GMDM has something left up his sleeve

by Buck McCoy on Jul 31, 2007 3:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I just want to say
I can't respond to everything going on above, but I pretty much agree with everything NYRoyal is saying. Except in a slightly less confrontational way.

by Moose Tacos on Jul 31, 2007 3:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hahaha
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rany and Dayton on the radio
Rany will be on 810 at 3:30 to discuss the trade and Dayton will be on at 5.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 31, 2007 3:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If Davies threw a knuckleball
Rany would be in love with him.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rany and I have something in common.
I really was hoping we would somehow get Charlie Haeger.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I liked him too
And then he got absolutely hammered in AAA this year.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hammered?
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Charles-Haeger.shtml

He's got 92Ks in 101IP, a 4.81 ERA, and about a hit an inning.  Yeah, he walked way too many...but that's not really hammered.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok
He did have a really bad start and has improved in the last month.  Some of his stats are good and some are bad.  Overall, his performance hasn't been good in AAA.  And then there are his 10 major league innings as well, which have been pretty bad too.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm just going to say my favorite line of the day.
He's only 23.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chuckles...nice
True enough.  I haven't given up on him.  But his stock has fallen some in my eyes.

On a side note, I am confident that the White Sox will never, ever use him as a starting pitcher again in the majors.  They don't think very highly of him at all.  Of course, I think Kenny Williams is a poor GM.  Maybe we could trade Lumsden back to the Sox for Haeger.  I'd be all for it.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That would be awesome.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nobody likes you when you're 23
And are still more amused by TV shows
What the hell is ADD?
My friends say I should act my age
What's my age again?
What's my age again?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 31, 2007 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's Blink right?
I saw them live once because the mighty Bad Religion were opening for them.  I left after three Blink songs though.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hiram
means "exalted one" in Hebrew.

by RTC Fan on Jul 31, 2007 4:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's all I need to know
Sign him to a long-term contract.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice
I like that better than "Elarton" which means "washed up one"
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 31, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

From ESPN blog
Regarding Davies:

The Royals get ex-prospect Kyle Davies. Davies was a top prospect when he was coming up through Atlanta's system, and they liked him enough that they refused to include him in the Tim Hudson deal, offering Dan Meyer instead. As it turns out, Davies has been awful in over 200 big-league innings, with no indication that he's getting any better. His fastball command is still poor, his control hasn't been good since he was in Double-A in 2004, and the only thing his average changeup does for him is ensure that lefties don't hit him any harder than righties do. I'm not sure what the Royals see in Davies, since we now have a significant body of evidence indicating that he isn't good enough to pitch in the majors. The charitable view is that he's a project and the Royals believe they can fix him. Given the reported asking price for Dotel from other clubs -- the Seattle Post-Intelligencer has reported that the Royals and Mariners were discussing Wladimir Balentien, for example -- this is a major letdown for Royal fans.

Not sure who said he could locate his fastball, but this clearly disagrees with you. I thought he had 3 "plus" pitches?

by Big Guy on Jul 31, 2007 4:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

There is disagreement on him
Other things that I have read about him this season say that he has great control of his fastball, an excellent change and a good curve.  And some other analysts, like at BP think this was a fair trade at market value for a Dotel rental.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've seen the kid pitch live once or twice in...
Atlanta.  I think I have a higher indication of his changeup...it's pretty good.  His major problem is control, but so was Luke Skywalker's...and he still beat the Evil Empire.  

I don't think it's a majore letdown, but I can understand why people might rather have had Balentien.  In the end, I think we would have done well either way and I'd rather have the pitcher.  I think I've said that 38,954 times though so it's probably tiring.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Luke Skywalker
And Mark Hamill was already 25 by that point.

by Moose Tacos on Jul 31, 2007 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fastball
He could locate his fastball in the minors, but not in the majors. Some scouts think his groin injury has something to do with that.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 31, 2007 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I See The Mighty
Kason Gabbard, he of the 3 hit shotout against our boys in blue, was part of the Gagne deal, so he is in Dallas now.
Being a fan is irrational, but what is the alternative?

by philofthenorth on Jul 31, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Like I said in one of the diaries
I back off my initial disappointment. He's 23, has a good arm, and history of good success in the minors and when he made his debut. That's a fine return for a pitcher like Dotel.

Kyle Davies at least equals Kason Gabbard. I've watched Gabbard every start this year and he's due for a major whupping.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 31, 2007 4:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

when in doubt, choose the pitcher...
look, the royals currently have at least two players younger than balentien who project to have more power than he does:  gordon and butler.  you'd love to have power hitting corner outfielders, but i'm pretty optimistic that the royals are going to have an above-average offense for the next five years even without balentien.  i'm not at all optimistic that the royals are going to have an above-average rotation for the next five years.  filling up the system with guys like davies, hochevar, buckner, lumsden, et al, improves the likelihood of that happening.  moore knows how to build a franchise.  you start with pitching, then more pitching, then even more pitching, and then you hope like hell that you have 4-6 guys who can average a 4.25 ERA.

davies has been no worse than bonderman was at similar ages, and nyroyal's been good about posting other great pitchers' early career stats.  i think it's safe to ignore davies' ML career to this point.

by Billex Gordler on Jul 31, 2007 4:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rany on Davies, Dotel, Moore and the trade
This is going to be kind of stream of consciousness:

Davies has the potential to be a solid #2 but he is a risk.  He might not realize that potential. He came up too young (like Greinke).  Did great in the minors but then was rushed and has done poorly in the majors.  Thinks he's healthy with a good fastball with good command of it.  But has control problems with change and curve.  At only 23 years old he still has a lot of upside value.  He could be another very good SP.

Both Rany and the radio guy give Moore the benefit of the doubt after he picked up Meche and Bannister.  Rany likes how Moore's trades have worked out, like Burgos for Bannister, which he initially ridiculed.  Meche was considered a terrible FA signing, but it has turned out to be fantastic.  Tony Pena has done better than anyone expected.  Gathright has done very well.  Moore has earned the benefit of the doubt.

Moore knows Davies well, but so do the Braves.  So, who knows how good Davies really will be?  Dotel had to be traded but losing him will hurt the bullpen probably.  The whole bullpen got better when Dotel came off the DL.

Dotel might be back as a FA signing this offseason.  Thinks Royals may well bid for him this offseason.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 4:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I wonder...
if there is a perception inside the Braves organization that they can't fix everyone without Mazzone...and so now the Braves are more willing to give up pitchers with correctable flaws.

It's also possible that the Braves just have so much pitching talent in the minors that they aren't worried about Davies?

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think
The Braves are gearing up for one last run, future be damned. They are mortaging the future for a pennant.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 31, 2007 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Could be...
that's not really their M.O. though
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

New ownership though
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 31, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Point taken.
"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Jul 31, 2007 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just a theory
Who knows.  They certainly gave up some serious talent in the Texeira deal.  I think they are making a run and gave up all the prospects necessary to get the right pieces into place.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another theory
...that Rany discussed: this is Atlanta's last gasp and they are willing to clean out their best prospects to make a run at it this year.  So maybe they did like Davies but were willing to give him up for short-term success.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rany liked Balentien too
Big upside.  Rany probably would have taken Balentien but he doesn't know if the rumors were true on the offer.  But it was close.  Maybe Seattle was asking for more than Dotel.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my thoughts on this entire shibang...
i doubt more than one or two people will read this, i know this forum is old news, but i need to let loose of my thoughts after watching NYRoyal write 100+ comments. i feel my need to do my part...

--- i doubt balentien was ever offered, and if he was it was likely for more than dotel. sure, i probably would rather have wlad than davies but i personally dont believe it came down to a one or one decision. even if it did, as mentioned above, i trust GMDM with any move (especially for a pitcher) and will at least wait a couple of years before deeming this deal a failure. i suggest all of you do the same.

--- i basically agree with everything NYRoyal said, also in a less confrontational/bringing up taking your medication way. davis is young and has plenty of potential. we likely wont see him in royal blue all year long, my guess is he will start in omaha and stay there (like hochevar/buckner/etc.) until he proves he can dominate at that level.

--- im not pissed off one bit. i know i said this earlier, but i will give davies until ST 2009 before deeming this trade a failure/success, he is still a work in progress and deserves time. if he is ready early that is fantastic, but i am not expecting him to sniff the majors until next summer.

--- dont get me started on how you can compare kyle davies to scott elarton. and how you can make that jump to contraction? just wow...

by rockchalk on Jul 31, 2007 6:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I read it
And, needless to say, I agree.

However, I'm listening to Dayton Moore on 810 WHB (on the internet) and he said Davies is moving right into the Royals major league rotation.  For better or worse.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2007 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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