Final Win Predictions

by rockchalk on Jul 9, 2007 7:28 PM EDT Comment 30 comments

we are past the halfway mark, but are at the all star break, which is always a fun time for end-of-year predictions.

right now we stand at 38-50, on pace to go 72-90. i want everyone to give their final record total, odds are someone will get it spot on.

my guess: 76-86

we will keep on playing at the same pace we are now (roughly) and play two games above .500 the rest of the way out. GMDM makes a couple of trades in july, but we call up players who are at least the same if not better (besides trading dotel) and actually improve AFTER the deadline.

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.500

81-81.... The Royals have always been a second half team.

-- A Pilgrim in an Unholy Land. (Seattle)

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Jul 9, 2007 7:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We go into CLE at 77-81

assuming we never make up that pointless Baltimore game and sweep the Indians out of first and into the WC like we did to Det last year.

SO finish at 80-81

by wildthang on Jul 9, 2007 7:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm more pessimistic

Have you seen our second half schedule? It's replete with Indians, Tigers, Twins and Yankees games, which we do not have a great track record against. I think we are headed for a significant amount of losses.

My prediction is 68-94

by Eppenweb on Jul 9, 2007 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tough to say

we have a difficult schedule, but we've played well going into the break. I'm at 70 to 75 wins.

by lordbyronk on Jul 9, 2007 9:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What'd I say at the beginnin of the year, 72?

I'm sticking with my guns, but I wouldn't be surprised if I missed low.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 9, 2007 9:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

76 wins is what I am guessing.

Pitching has much more depth and the younger guys will be hungry. Gordon is beginning to figure it out and could get hot for a while. Butler gives them another legit stick. Teahen will bounce back. Hopefully, Buddy's plan of sitting Buck 3 days a week will pay off later in the year when he'll be fresher.

by daveyork on Jul 9, 2007 10:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

76-78

This team will stay hot for the second half and I agree with rock chalk, they could improve with the right pickup at the deadline (first baseman, leftfielder). It just depends on Dayton's moves. Anyhow, 80 wins isn't impossible, but I'll say 77.

by royaldaddy on Jul 10, 2007 12:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it aint 1957

we play 162 games now!

by wildthang on Jul 10, 2007 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, obviously my comments

weren't clear enough. I will break it down to a lower level. 76, 77, or 78 wins. So, therefore, 76-78 would represent any number that lies in between the 76 and the 78. I'm sorry that was so hard, but I figured it would make sense. But, thanks for the lesson.

by royaldaddy on Jul 10, 2007 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hyphens

in this context are used to denote a specific win loss record. 76-78 would mean 76 wins and 78 losses.

by wildthang on Jul 11, 2007 5:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Prediction Time

The grind will start showing on our pitching and although I would like to see us finish with seventy something wins, I think we will finish in the 60's. I think the next 4 series against the Indians, Boston, Tigers and Yankees will tell us which we are headed. If we can go 6 and 6 or better, I think we will be in the 70 something win column.

Bob Chisam

by bobchisam on Jul 10, 2007 9:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

75 wins tops

I think that the tough schedule coupled with the teams improvement tops us out at around 75 wins.

by EricConley on Jul 10, 2007 9:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

approximately 70-75 wins.

by nycroyal on Jul 10, 2007 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

68 Wins

Looking at the 2nd half schedule, I would be happy with 68 wins. That is, as long as the team is playing to develop for the future. No desparate trades for declining vets or reaches into the farm system for kids who aren't ready. More than 90 losses would be bearable as long as we don't repeat it again for a long time.

Being a fan is irrational, but what is the alternative?

by philofthenorth on Jul 10, 2007 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Second half schedule is brutal

Here it is:
Cleveland 12
Detroit 9
Minny 13
Chicago 10
New York 10
Texas 9
Boston 3
Oakland 3
Toronto 4
Baltimore 1

That being said, the team has made significant strides.

I'm going with 71-91. That would be a good season, considering.

(Besides, I have a C-Note on the over, and I got it at 66 and a half.)

by loyal2s dad on Jul 10, 2007 10:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

72-90

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 10, 2007 10:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

By the way

While the current win pace would result in a 70-92 finish, the pythag projection, for those of you so inclined, works out to 74-88!

I like fooling with numbers, so I couldn't resist the following:

KC started 11-26, since then are 27-24. Their pythag orpjection over these last 51 games is 28-23. That would translate to a 89-73 season! That's right - for the last 51 games, our team has performed similarly to a 89-73 squad, which would, by most definitions constitute a contender.

Of course, the 51 game stretch was peppered with easy interleague games, etc., and of course you can't ignore the first 37 games, but still, this is quite encouraging, yes?

by loyal2s dad on Jul 10, 2007 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just imagine

If you could take Scott Elarton's runs out of the equation.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 10, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Isn't our pythag pretty skewed since we scored 51 runs in three wins?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 10, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1-run losses skew the other way at the same time

It evens itself out.

by NYRoyal on Jul 10, 2007 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Like The Word

Orpjections; it's a keeper.

Being a fan is irrational, but what is the alternative?

by philofthenorth on Jul 10, 2007 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My pre-season prediction was 72

I think that is safe. But I think they'll be considerably better in the second half. Young teams often improve over the course of a year. Even with the tougher schedule, I think they'll top 72 wins. I'll revise my prediction to 74 wins.

by NYRoyal on Jul 10, 2007 11:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

72 was my low end

I guess it's the coward's prediction to use a range - mine was 72-77 wins - so I'll just split the difference and say 74.5.

C'mon tie game...

by marbotty on Jul 10, 2007 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cowardly

yeah it is, because you know there's a huge difference between 72 and 77 wins. :P

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 11, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i know

and i appreciate your courtesy of calling me on it :)

by marbotty on Jul 11, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Pitching Staff

Did gain a lot by subtraction; Elarton and Wellemeyer should not be in the major leagues. I hope Buddy doesn't bring Elarton back; that whole sucking out loud thing really bugs me.

Barring roster moves, I'd like to see:

DDJ CF
German/Grudz 2B
Butler DH
Gordon 3B
Teahen RF
Buck C
Gload/Shealy 1B
Gathright LF
TPJ SS

If Sweeney comes back, put him at 1st against lefties instead of Shealy. Is Shealy really hurt or just sucking too much to play? Anyhow, until we are ready to bring some of the kids up to play and stay and we acquire a power hitting FA in the off season, I think this lineup gives us our best chance to win 68 and make the changes next year to get to .500.

Being a fan is irrational, but what is the alternative?

by philofthenorth on Jul 10, 2007 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs