September Roster / Second Half Predictions

by Royals Nation on Jul 9, 2007 7:31 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

http://royalsnation.proboards62.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1183959840

I'd like to know what everyone's September roster will look like...perhaps a combination of what you feel it should look like and what you believe it will look like.

Here's my roster on September 1, one day after the last trade deadline.

Starting Lineup:

CF - David DeJesus (a stud who, because of his ability to draw walks and tremendous plate discipline - deserves to hit leadoff)
2B - Esteban German (good bat control, solid singles/BA hitter)
DH - Billy Butler (he will have earned it by Sep. 1)
3B - Alex Gordon (the future spot for Gordon...not the perfect option for Sep. 1, but the best option)
RF - Mark Teahen (moved down because of power issues, which, IMO, are only temporary)
C - John Buck (15 HR's before the break? Yeah, the SLG has all but earned him this spot)
1B - Craig Brazell/Justin Huber (call Brazell up and give the 27-year old perhaps his final shot. Why not? Use Huber against lefties.)
LF - Joey Gathright/Mitch Maier (I'd like to see Buddy give Gathright a few cracks at leadoff as well...give Maier his opportunity)
SS - Tony Pena (thrives where he belongs)

Bench:

C - Jason LaRue (veteran presence...you know the bit)
C - Paul Phillips (I'd like him to get the bulk of the back-up playing time)
1B - Ross Gload (Probably won't develop enough trade value at the deadline...he might be worth keeping around in 2008 strictly as a utilityman/backup - with a new manager who will use him properly, of course)
1B - Mike Sweeney (as much as I like him, I think we should hold off playing him until the final week of the season, or so...for pride purposes)
2B - Fernando Cortez (backup infielder for now)
RF - Shane Costa (one final chance?)

Rotation:

SP - Gil Meche (....yep )
SP - Odalis Perez (he'll likely have to play out the remainder of this season with the R's...can't see him building trade value)
SP - Jorge De La Rosa (I'd love to see him put together a solid rebound)
SP - Brian Bannister (keep him going, but limit his innings)
SP - Matt Wright (give him a shot!)

SS/LR/Mop-Up - Billy Buckner (alternative him and Matt Wright in the rotation...give Buckner a couple spot-starts, let him work in non-pressure situations in relief)
LR/Mop-Up - Neal Musser
LR/Mop-Up - Ryan Braun
LR/Mop-Up - John Bale
MR - Brandon Duckworth (keep in middle-relief role if no injuries to pitching staff...if injuries then move him back)
MR - Zack Greinke (same role/6th & 7th inning...early relief appearances on Perez/Wright/Bannister days...keep him in the role he thrives!)
MR - Jimmy Gobble (Situational/7th inning)
MR - Joel Peralta (7th inning role)
MR - David Riske (he's worth keeping for at least the next year)
CL - Joakim Soria (he's earned it)

Don't mess up what's working! Don't tamper with the bullpen!

Release:

Scott Elarton (or let him clear waivers and throw frisbees at Omaha)

John Thomson (if he clears waivers, then send him to Omaha for remainder of season)

Ryan Shealy (I'm just about done with this experiment)

Trade:

Emil Brown ------ AA D-level prospect (organizational filler, possible MLB backup)

Octavio Dotel ------ B+ low-level prospect pitcher / throw-in organizational filler

Mark Grudzielanek ------ C-level prospect (middle-infielder)

Reggie Sanders ------- anything (if not traded, keep him on bench in extremely limited duty, force Buddy to give Maier, Huber, and Costa more P.T. - I know it will be difficult for Buddy...but do it anyway)

-Leo Nunez ----- use as possible throw-in to any of the trades above

Minors:

Keep Hochevar in Wichita for remainder of season.

Keep Joe Nelson in rehabilitation/minors for remainder of season.

Let Sean Thompson prove himself in AAA and then shut him down.

Andres Blanco - his time even playing for Omaha is likely coming to an end.

Angel Sanchez - let him rehabilitate

Here are some of my predictions for the second half:

Gordon will continue to hit, but without power

Butler will strike out a lot and walk little, but demonstrate his raw abilities with power

Bannister will continue to pitch effectively, but won't be as "dominant" as he was in the first half

Meche will remain a stud #1

Our bullpen will regress a little - they will be effective but not as dominant as shown in first half

Our offense will improve, and we will hit much better in clutch/key situations

Tony Pena, Jr. will regress to Berroa-like levels offensively, but remain solid defensively

The Royals, as a whole, will improve defensively with adventures like Emil Brown off the team

For the first time, Bell will use John Buck and Joey Gathright in full-time (or near full-time) roles

Starter Billy Buckner will get the call in August, and starter Matt Wright will be promoted in September

Ross Gload will remain with the team, and hit in the cleanup role 70% of the time

David DeJesus will raise his average to above .300, and end with a solid .312 batting average

The Royals will strike gold with another pitcher (a la Bannister), albeit for a short period of time (August through final game)

Mike Sweeney will play the final week with the Royals - even if he isn't ready to return - and receive standing ovation on final home game.

Jack

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Comments

Odie

will get something. Not every team gets the starter they want at the deadline. Some have to settle...and look Odalis Perez is available. We may get a minor prospect, but I bet he's gone. Otherwise, I'd cut LaRue loose and play Phillips, who as you say deserves the majority of backup playing time. I bet we get a Bannister like starter for Dotel/Perez/Grudz, who'll slide in the rotation. Buckner will get a shot and will be solid. Maier just seems a lot like Costa to me (lifetime 4th OF). I'd rather see Lubanski, because at least he shows flashes of power, maybe a September call-up. Brazell or Huber at first works; however, we probably will only be able to use one with Gload still on the roster. I'm sure GMDM has something up his sleeve, I just keep waiting for a trade to go down. This is a solidly improving team, and we'll play just a hair under .500 ball the rest of the way out. Go Blue!

by lordbyronk on Jul 9, 2007 9:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have to read this over closer...

but Craig Brazell is about half the hitter Huber is, which ain't really good.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 9, 2007 9:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

but it's better to play them than to play Gload. At least with the other two, we can see if they fit into the future. I'm not sure Brazell or Huber are the answer, but you have to play them to find out.

by lordbyronk on Jul 9, 2007 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, lots to consider

my first thoughts are:
1. It is too bold a move for Royals to release Shealy and bring up Huber/Brazell. They will limp along with Gload and Sweeney with the occasional Gordon sighting at 1B.

2.Can't imagine who would trade for Sanders or Brown. Even giving up a rookie league or low A type. If they aren't on the roster, it is due to injury or being released.

I would rather see at Gathright/Maier platoon than Costa get any more regular time.
LaRue might find a taker depending on who gets injured. Same with Grud. Our best bet on the trade route is Dotel and/or Perez. The farm system could use a quality addition or two from a trade for either one of them. Pitching is always at a premium.
Like the idea of Buckner and Wright getting some big league time. Same with Braun. I would leave Hochevar down.
I predict that Bale won't throw an inning in KC this summer. We need an award for this - how can a guy sign for millions and never play for the team.

by daveyork on Jul 9, 2007 10:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My humble predictions

If Hochevar can avoid any seriously bad outings I wouldn't be against him getting a half dozen or so starts at AAA before the season is over.
If Brazell continues to hit bombs he surely has to be on the expanded roster, right?
Where is Justin Huber?
Move any of our veterans for anything of value (ie: young, projectable)
Despite his total lack of power, if Joey G. can keep his OBP around 400 then I do not see why he doesn't lead off. We need Butler/Gordon/Teahen to show a lot more power in the middle to make this worthwhile, but to me Joey deserves an everyday shot.
I'd like to see Buckner up. I'm not really sure where I'd put him though at this point. Hopefully long term he can be a 3-4 type starter.
Begin stretching out Soria to get him into the rotation.
Put Zack Attack back in the rotation or make him the closer after Dotel is dealt.

livin' la vida loca

by RoyalJHWKR on Jul 10, 2007 12:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My opinion

Forget Maier. He really doesn't excite me very much and I doubt he'll ever be much of a major leaguer. Gathright should play everyday. Otherwise though, I mainly agree with everything. Although I would wait until next spring to put Soria in the rotation. Let him stay in the bullpen the rest of this year so his arm doesn't fall off.

by teabag2007 on Jul 10, 2007 3:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget the 40 man roster problem

when contemplating Sept callups. Guys still need to be on the 40 man, which means somebody has to be removed from it too.

by loyal2s dad on Jul 10, 2007 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It makes no sense to release Shealy

No sense at all. I don't see how you could even suggest it. Really. I don't know how good he'll be, but the organization doesn't have any other obvious first base options. Maybe Butler will be the first baseman of the future. Maybe not. Maybe Huber could be decent. Maybe not. Shealy is a league minimum option who still might turn into something decent. Maybe not. But what does the organization gain by releasing him? Decreasing the team's options?

by NYRoyal on Jul 10, 2007 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2008

As much as I'd like to see us start next season with:

Meche
Bannister
DLR
Soria
Greinke

Wouldn't that hurt our bullpen? It seems to me that we won't be moving both Soria and Greinke. One of them needs to solidify our pen next year.

Matty486

by Matty486 on Jul 10, 2007 5:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bullpens turnover...

every year. You don't waste talents like Greinke and Soria as bullpen guys. Unless one is the closer. I still want to see what these guys have in the rotation. They gave up way too early on Greinke this year and Soria should begin next year in the rotation.

It's a lot cheaper to sign a new closer or middle relievers (see Riske) than it is to sign a #2 or #3 starter, which is what both could be.

by Big Guy on Jul 10, 2007 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i disagree to a point

while it would be better for them to both stay in the rotation, you cant FORCE them to. they are both uber-successful in the bullpen, i would rather have them stay in the pen as the longterm closer and wouldnt be bothered if they both stay in the pen longterm. we have enough young options (assuming one of lumsden/buckner/cota/rosa/plummer/cortes/etc. works out long term) to have them both stay in the pen, and having a shut down pair like those two to come in as early as the 7th and shut things down is invaluable.

give them both a shot in spring training to earn a job, but dont force them to be starters. i want RESULTS wherever they are, regardless of whether they have the POTENTIAL to one day be successufl in the rotation or not.

by rockchalk on Jul 10, 2007 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Greinke Is Already

Pitching from the stretch with the bases empty. I think he thinks he's staying in the pen. With Greinke's history, I say leave him where he's happy.

With the starters going 6 on average, having 2 pitchers good for 2 innings (Greinke and Riske) with Soria closing makes a tough pen. Peralta and Duckworth are good long men for the days we don't get a "quality start".

What is the deal with Gobble? He was the next big thing as a starter, now he's a lefty specialist. What happened? He seems to be good in this role, but the last time I saw him try to stay in a game after dispatching the lefties he gave up a dinger to Konerko an his first pitch and was gone shortly thereafter. Can he still retire righties with his new delivery?

After Gobble, Musser is the only LHP in the pen. He's been OK when I've seen him, but I don't know much about him. Is Odie's enormous contract done this year? If so, he could be a decent inning eating lefty in long relief if he can have the right approach to the job. If we can't get much for him and could re-sign him for reasonable money, maybe that's worth doing.

I'm tired of typing now; tell me why I'm a clueless moron.

Being a fan is irrational, but what is the alternative?

by philofthenorth on Jul 10, 2007 6:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs