Realistic Trade Ideas for Pitching

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 19, 2007 12:33 PM EDT

This assumes we need more starting pitching, and I don't think you can ever have enough starting pitching. We don't have a lot of tradeable chips, so any thoughts of landing Dontrelle Willis, even in a down year, are probably unreasonable. No team is going to trade a player of value for a lot of spare parts.

The free agent market for pitching absolutely blows. So while its a nice fantasy to think of us getting stud young pitchers, we probably have to settle for guys with shaky track records that have upside. Which is really what Gil Meche was.

So in my mind, the best way to upgrade in the pitching staff is to find young pitchers that once held great promise, but have perhaps fallen out of favor with their teams. I have identified the following as such pitchers:

Ervin Santana - He's still just 24 and won 16 games last year. He's been terrible this year, demoted to the pen. The Angels are in "win-now" mode and won't wait around for him to get it. Not sure what we could offer that they would need though.
Cliff Lee - won 18 games two years ago but was demoted to the minors this year after a 6.53 ERA. He is signed for the next two years for $9 million.
Scott Olsen - lots of baggage here. Flipped of fans, got in a fight in the dugout and has a DUI trial coming up. Still, just 23 and has great potential.
Chris Capuano - won 18 games two years ago, but had a 5.21 ERA this year. Milwaukee has a lot of good young pitchers coming up so Capuano may be squeezed out.
Claudio Vargas - also a Brewer that may be squeezed by younger players.
Anthony Reyes - I'd be pretty surprised to see the Cards deal a former hot prospect like Reyes, especially considering how much they need pitching, but Reyes has been a disappointment thus far. The Cards are always looking to win now, so maybe they go with veterans this winter and trade Reyes.
Matt Belisle - very good K-BB ratios, but ERA has been poor, thanks largely to Cincinnati's ballpark. His ERA is almost a run lower on the road
Wandy Rodriguez - his numbers have been pretty mediocre, but he had a big spike in strikeouts this year, a good sign
Clay Hensley - had a great year last year but really regressed
Hong Chih Kuo - probably a long shot to get traded. He's coming off injury. Had great strikeouts numbers last year. If Dodgers go with vets, he could be dealt
Paul Maholm - he's had trade rumors swirl around him this year. He's been pretty mediocre. Might be a decent back of the rotation guy that can provide some stability. His teammates Ian Snell is supposedly also on the market, but it would take much more to get him. He's more of a frontline guy. Boof Bonser - I think Boof is a long shot to be dealt, but the Twins have a bunch of young pitchers (Baker, Garza, Slowey) and need pop. Could a Teahen for Bonser trade work?

Thoughts?

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Comments

I wouldn't trade proven players for these guys

But in a low-risk situation, these could be good options.

by jbrocato on Sep 19, 2007 12:26 PM EDT reply actions

I think Santana...

has a lot of upside and would love that deal. Bonser is interesting. Whether he is expendable to the Twins probably depends on whether they plan to trade Johan Santana.

by djk royal on Sep 19, 2007 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

Big bat, Big bat, Big bat....

I want to see one or two big Bats added to the lineup before we even think about another pitcher.

With a bunch of players fighting for a spot in the rotation why would we trade Teahen for any pitching.

Meche
Bannister
Hochevar
Buckner
JDLR

with a bullpen of Peralta, Greinke, Musser, Bale,
Gobble, and Soria...

With Wright, Lumsden, possibly Rosa, Plummer, Braun, and who knows who else at Omaha our pitching seems in pretty good shape.

by grudz69 on Sep 19, 2007 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

I wouldn't trade for most of these guys

Many are from the NL (read terrible league) and haven't been able to get it done there,even. I would rather give up a minor league pitcher or major league bullpen guy to get a solid hitting prospect, not another Joey Gathright, but a guy with the potential to hit 25+ HR and drive in 100+. We have mediocre guys on the staff already: Hiram, JDLR, Duckworth, and Musser. I want guys like Bannister thinkers who can control where the ball is going even if it may not get there as fast.

by Skirra on Sep 19, 2007 12:47 PM EDT reply actions

If Dayton traded Teahen for

Bonser, all other previous calls of him being a genius are null and void. Dejesus for Capuano? I'm listening.

by royaldaddy on Sep 19, 2007 12:56 PM EDT reply actions

what?

bonser is a much better pitcher than capuano IMO and teahen-dejesus arent LOADS apart. i wouldnt make either one, but i would "listen" to teahen-bonser and not even consider dejesus-capuano.

by rockchalk on Sep 22, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

We can't trade off Teahen

Teahen, Butler, and Gordon are our young nucleus, I don't think it would b every wise to deal them

That being said, I think the best 2 guys on the list are Santana and Reyes and would be very interesting to see what they could do in royal blue

Ah to spend a day in Buddy's thought process...

by fats on Sep 19, 2007 1:30 PM EDT reply actions

Santana

would be an awesome pickup, maybe we could snag a SS prospect that's close to ready from their extremely deep farm system. I don't know what we would have that would match up though. The Angels seems to need corner Corner OF depth and maybe relief pitching. Not a lot of needs. Bonser would be great, though I doubt the Twins trade him. The talent it would take to acquire a guy like Santana might be better spent to get a hitter, I don't see us having a surplus of tradable parts.

by lordbyronk on Sep 19, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply actions

we should have traded teahen last year

now its just best to hope he gets better

Anyone but Terry

by FireBell on Sep 19, 2007 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

Disagree with the premise of this post

Honestly, I think our 40 man roster shakes out, talent wise, as about 65% pitching talent and 35% hitting talent.

As you point out, the FA pitching market is very thin, and it's for that very reason I think the Royals have a great opportunity to swap some of our pitching to fix our biggest weakness - at least one bat, if not two, who can post a decent slugging percentage and occupy the middle of the lineup.

Just look at all of our rotation options next year:

Meche
Bannister
Greinke
Soria
Hochevar
Buckner
JDLR
Davies

I know you need pitching depth, but I still think the right call would be to deal one or two of the above, perhaps in conjunction with other minor leaguers, to obtain a good young power hitter.

by loyal2s dad on Sep 19, 2007 2:01 PM EDT reply actions

That Depends On The

Performance level required to be a "good, young power hitter".

Being a fan is irrational, but what is the alternative?

by philofthenorth on Sep 19, 2007 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Disagree or not

I don't think the front office disagrees with that premise. I think Moore et al. think one more starting pitcher AND one impact bat are essential this off-season--if heard it said too many times by Moore that he believes starting pitching is the key to the team. There seems to be a lack of belief here that he can do both, but I think Dayton can make the case to Glass that both are necessary, and, so far, Glass has been willing to go with Dayton's assessment of need.

As to the main topic, I saw at mlbtraderumors.com that the White Sox are likely to shop Jon Garland, and would be looking for a couple of relief pitchers. Any takers?

by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 19, 2007 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I considered adding Garland

But I see he is only signed for one more year before free agency. I don't think Dayton will take a guy that short-term.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 19, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

bait

and we already sent them Sisco. What's left? Bale?

by David Howards Legacy on Sep 19, 2007 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know how valuable they are

To the rest of the league, but you'd have to give up guys with at least some remaining perceivable upside, i.e. Gobble/Peralta/Nunez types.

by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 19, 2007 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Phil,

considering the dearth of potential "good young power hitters" on our current 40 man (I count two - Butler and Gordon), I guess our standards would be fairly low compared to the rest of baseball!

I just believe, like Earl Weaver, that a team can not win without some power. Look at this year's stats - despite having a pitching staff firmly entrenched in the middle of the AL pack, we have still been out-homered by about FIFTY!

I lack the initiative to do a study, but I do remember reading in one of Bill James' abstracts years ago that one of the strong characteristics of WS teams was the ability to out-homer it's opposition.

If we are this far in the red on this stat, despite having a competant pitching staff, then that indicates to me that the problem lies with our offense. We simply have inadequate power capability (and a manager who doesn't particulary value power to boot).

by loyal2s dad on Sep 19, 2007 2:16 PM EDT reply actions

Actually

I'd be fine with a couple of young guys who pound out doubles at this stage.

by BlueEyesAustin on Sep 19, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

ITA, L2D

I'm just wondering how good a young prospect we would need to acquire to give up some of our seeming pitching depth. He'll have to be significantly better than A-Meal (I think I actually heard Harrelson call him "Email") or Shealy at their best. I do think we have improved SLG from Gordon, Butler and Teahen in our future, but some dude standing in LF who will be a 30/100 guy is what we need and I don't know how many of those are laying around.

BTW, the more I see of Mike Lowell, the more I like the idea of signing him to a 2-3 year FA contract; put Gordon at 1st, DH Lowell some and let Gordon and Butler man the corners. The everyday lineup would be:

DDJ CF
Gritz 2B
Gordon 1B
Butler DH
Lowell 3b
Teacock RF
Buck C
Gathright/Huber? LF
TPJ SS

Lowell in LF might be even better, but I hear he's pretty fond of 3B.

Being a fan is irrational, but what is the alternative?

by philofthenorth on Sep 19, 2007 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Gordon...

will be a special third basemen for years to come so moving him to first base for an aging player doesn't seem like a good long-term move at all.

by djk royal on Sep 19, 2007 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

As I Said,

I'd actually like to see Lowell in LF, but I don't know if he'd sign with a team to do that; he's a good 3rd baseman. In any case, it would be a short term deal, and Gordon would wind up at 3rd by 2009 at the latest.

Being a fan is irrational, but what is the alternative?

by philofthenorth on Sep 19, 2007 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

A couple of decent bats would make our existing pitchers look a whole lot better. I think there are more wins to be gathered that way than replacing Odalis/Davies/JDLR/Nunez as a fourth or fifth starter (assuming Meche, Banny, and Greinke are set for next year).

by BlueEyesAustin on Sep 19, 2007 2:19 PM EDT reply actions

Another rumor I thought I heard

Was that Colorado would not likely keep both Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook. I think Cook would be in his last year, and I would find it unlikely they'd part with Francis. How about Cook?

by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 19, 2007 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

I think Cook would be great

It would take a lot to get him though and I believe he's a FA after next year.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 19, 2007 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Too much to get him

Last year when the Rockies traded Jason Jennings in the offseason, who in my opinion, is not as good as Cook, the Rockies got Tavaras, Hirsh and Buchholz in return. The Astros have to wish they had a do-over. I'd rather the Royals not part with that much talent. He would look nice in the rotation, though.

by lordbyronk on Sep 19, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I think

Jennings was considered a bigger talent than Cook, and might be had for less in a walk year.

Further, I realize it's the last contract year for Cook (as well as Garland, who I mentioned earlier). But, those are the guys who are likely going to be worth a little less in the trade market. It might be worth the risk to get a higher quality guy in the last year of his contract and see 1) if GMDM can convince him this is a team going places and give him a contract extension comparable to what he would have gotten in this year's free agent market, or 2) if the guy really wants to test free agency, flip him at the deadline or get the comp pick for him later. I think the Royals are still in enough of a rebuilding phase to take a chance on a move like that instead of trying to either outbid for the top FAs, trade too much for a younger guy who may or may not pan out, or to only try to outscout everybody else to predict whose on the cusp of considerable improvement (a la Meche).

by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 19, 2007 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

The Rockies would be insane to let Francis

get away from them. I live in Colorado and listen to the Rockies often. Francis is a Cy Young candidate, young and signed a long term deal. Aaron Cook has really good stuff - would be a great fit in Royals rotation but the payment would be a Jason Jennings type deal - top prospect, a major league ready player and another pitcher/player. Can't see the Royals giving up Buckner, Gathright and a minor leaguer for Cook.

Rumors of Rockies looking to move Garrett Atkins due to salary. He is a good hitter and could play 1B/3B. Not big slugger but good average with power. If the Rockies look to dump salary, he might be available especially with Ian Stewart ready at AAA.

by daveyork on Sep 19, 2007 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions

We need hitting a lot more than pitching

We have a good rotation and a good bullpen right now, plus a lot of depth which can fill out the back of the rotation. On offense, we have some good young players who should develop, but we have some big holes in the lineup. And we don't have players in the system who are likely to fill any of those holes in the next few years.

If we're trading, we should be trading for a good young hitter. I still like the idea of using Dejesus as the main trading chip. Trade him to a team that needs a CFer. His OBP, speed, defense and contract would look very good to someone.

by Scott McKinney on Sep 19, 2007 3:41 PM EDT reply actions

There are a lot of FA CF

on the market this winter, like Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter. To trade, we need a commodity that is less likely to be available as a free agent.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Sep 19, 2007 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Two expensive FA's

You have a valid point, but those two FA's are extremely expensive. And there are some others which will cost millions are really aren't very good. Dejesus, on the other hand, is locked up for multiple years for very little money. So, with him, a team would get a good player on the cheap.

Most teams will lose out on Hunter and Jones. I think many would see high value in Dejesus.

by Scott McKinney on Sep 19, 2007 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

If the Royals are interested in bringing in

pitchers who are bottoming out in their careers but who might make themselves effective again, might I suggest free agent Eric Milton?

Milton was pretty bad for the Reds, but the conventional wisdom on his crappiness was that it was largely due to him being a flyball pitcher getting half his work in the worst ball park in the majors for flyball pitchers.

If this is accurate, Milton might return to his old durable 180 inning, 4.5ish ERA self in a park more forgiving to flyball pitchers. Such as Kauffman.

Just a thought. Milton will come pretty cheap this year.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 19, 2007 4:30 PM EDT reply actions

Recent extreme flyball pitchers

In the backend of their careers at Kauffman:

Jose Lima
Scott Elarton

I don't think Kauffman is THAT forgiving to HR hitters. I'd pass.

by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 19, 2007 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Clay Hensley

I would love to see Clay Hensley in the rotation next year. He was very good last year. San Diego is going to need a speedy CF (Gathright) to replace Cameron.

by Killer G's on Sep 19, 2007 5:58 PM EDT reply actions

Good call

That makes a lot of sense.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 20, 2007 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Hensley's going under the knife,

I believe.

"True friends stab you in the front."-Oscar Wilde.

by NHZ on Sep 20, 2007 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

What about Bronson Arroyo?

He may be available too. He's not a Cy Young candidate, but who in that group is? He may be worth a shot if Cincy looks to move him.

by royaldaddy on Sep 20, 2007 1:40 AM EDT reply actions

The Reds signed Bronson to a two year

extension before the season began. He is locked up for three more years now. Plus, Krivsky loves him because he is one of the few players Sweaterpants has traded for who has played very well.

Matt Belisle and Elzardo Ramirez might be obtained.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 20, 2007 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions