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Royals Insider: Joey Gathright

On this edition of Royals Insider, we explore the life and times of Joey Renard Gathright.

Born in Hattiesburg, Mississipi, Gathright attended Bonnabel High School in Kenner, Louisiana. There, he excelled as a high school hitter, combining a fleet foot with an exceptional contact bat.^ Noticing such tremendous tools, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays selected him in the 32nd round of the 2001 amateur entry draft. Upon signing in August, Gathright waited one year before entering Class-A Charleston, where he hit .264/.360/.269 in 208 at-bats. The following season, he combined a .324/.406/.359 and .376/.419/.388 at Class A+ Bakersfield and Class AA Orlando. In Bakersfield, Gathright solidified himself as one of the best runners in the Minor Leagues, stealing 57 bases in 70 attempts. Although he had never hit one career home run, he batted for tremendous contact, hitting .326 and .341 for two levels in 2004. He was revered as one of the hottest prospects in the low minors, and won the Baseball America 2nd team Minor League All-Star award, California League Rookie of the Year award, and the California League All Star award. The following season, he was promoted to the parent club - Tampa Bay.

(Editor's Note: A hat-tip to neroyalsfan11 over at Royals Nation for pointing out that Gathright was originally a track runner, and only played baseball his senior year in high school.)

By 2004, Gathright had begun to solidify himself as a precursor to the 1970's and 1980's era leadoff men extraordinaires, from Otis Nixon to Brett Butler. Joey split the 2005 season between Class AAA Durham and Tampa Bay. Throughout the Minor Leagues, Gathright had worked the count often and got on base at an excellent clip. However, initially, his high-OBP game did not translate to the big league level, with merely a +40 and +66 BA/OBP split the first two short seasons in St. Petersburg.


On a summer evening in 2002, the fleetfooted Joey Gathright decided to jump over two vehicles in a parking lot.

After a lowly 2006 campaign with Durham and Tampa Bay, Gathright, along with infielder Fernando Cortez, was sent to our Boys in Blue for 22-year old left handed pitcher J.P. Howell, always considered long on potential but, at the time, severely short on outcome. It was a controversial trade at the time on behalf of Dayton Moore, as it received mixed - and emotional - results on both the Devil Rays blogosphere and the Royals blogosphere. Dayton Moore defended the move, citing defensive need in a spacious ballpark:

"We've got to make sure that we've got outstanding defense in this ballpark," Moore said of the decision to trade a pitching prospect for speed and defense. "With DeJesus (David, who moved from center to left) and Gathright we certainly have some guys who can track the ball. We've got to be athletic in this ballpark."

That season, Gathright spent 229 at-bats playing mostly center field in Kansas City, forcing DeJesus over to an unfamiliar left field. Gathright delivered almost instantly in Kansas City with the potential he demonstrated in the Minor Leagues, connecting for a .262/.332/.328 line in 79 games. However, in 2007, after an epic Spring Training battle with fellow on-the-cusp outfielders Shane Costa and Justin Huber, Gathright was confined to the AAA level for at least a small part of one more season. Gathright performed brilliantly in Omaha early in the season, earning a permanent callup after outfielder Reggie Sanders was sidelined for the second time. Gathright performed promising in Kansas City, drilling 70 hits in 74 games.

However, the analysis of Joey Gathright must delve deeper than simply the numbers at first glance. Consider these numbers, referenced by the always informative mtroyals over on RoyalBoard.com.

Tampa Bay:
  1. 6 SB, 1 CS = 85%
  2. 20 SB, 5 CS = 80%
  3. 12 SB, 3 CS = 80%
Kansas City:
  1. 10 SB, 6 CS = 62%
  2. 9 SB, 8 CS = 52%

Gathright has not exactly performed well on the basepaths in Kansas City. Could the difference merely be coincidence, sending him on the incorrect counts, the natural grass at Kauffman Stadium, or simply having the cannon-armed Ivan Rodriguez in the same division? That is a question that remains to be seen. One thing is for sure: In order to maintain a position somewhere in the Royals lineup, Gathright must begin to translate his exceptional raw speed into baseball speed. This would not only include stealing bases more often and more effectively, but covering ground and getting better reads and reactions on fly balls.

According to the Topeka Capital-Journal, Gathright's Tampa Bay biography stated that he runs from home plate to first base in 3.3 seconds on a bunt. Also, he has been timed at an amazing 6.1 seconds in a 60-yard dash.

Because the corner outfield positions demand such power, Gathright would ideally be better suited as strictly a center fielder. Unfortunately, in our situation, the talented - yet not exactly power-talented - David DeJesus will occupy that role for the forseeable future (barring, of course, a trade). Gathright's singles-hitting isn't sufficient for a left fielder, and given the team's lack of doubles and home run power (they finished dead last in total bases and slugging percentage), his presence in the lineup takes away from something a player like Justin Huber or Chris Lubanski could possibly grant us. Power.

ASSETS:

  • Almost identical career OPS vs. lefties (.649) and righties (.647) makes him viable starting option against any candidate (although he hits finesse pitchers and groundball pitchers better)
  • Raw speed translated into excellent baserunning skills and range in the Minor Leagues and in Tampa Bay (38-for-47 in SB attempts since becoming a Royal)
  • Above average on-base skills makes him a qualified leadoff hitter (career +67 BA/OBP split)
  • FLAWS:
  • Presence of David DeJesus in center field gives him lack of power from a power-needy position (corner outfield) (1 career home run)
  • Inability, thus far, to convert speed potential to stolen bases in Kansas City
  • 2008 PROJECTIONS:

    GS/G: 49/81
    AB: 221
    H: 59
    BA: .267
    OBP: .343
    SLG: .317
    1B: 50
    2B: 7
    3B: 2
    HR: 0
    RBI: 21
    R: 26
    BB: 17
    K: 34
    SB: 15
    CS: 9
    OPS+: 78

    On-field performance:
    Tremendous dropoff from 2007: 10%
    Slight dropoff from 2007: 35%
    Repeats 2007 form: 40%
    True breakthrough season (.300/.400/.350): 15%

    Injury contingency:
    Injured for 15 days or more: 5%

    Whereabouts:
    Chances traded/released before Opening Day: 20%
    Chances traded at 2008 Trade Deadline: 15%

    Job allocation:
    Starting outfielder: 15%
    Platoon role: 5%
    Bench/reserve role: 55%
    Season split between K.C. and Omaha: 25%

    To be honest, I think Gathright's maximum potential is still that of a capable vintage-style leadoff man. However, with David DeJesus present, that team is currently not the Royals. The Royals could best implement him as a fourth outfielder. What is most vital to his 2008 campaign is whether he can translate his running abilities into stolen bases. Then, Gathright could be used as a pinch runner. In fact, I predict that Gathright will translate his skills slightly more effectively this season, improving his instincts and range in left field (and occasionally center) and stealing a few bases in close and late pinch-running roles. Offensively, he could still forseeably become a true leadoff man. His OBP and contact skills rival that of DeJesus and Mark Teahen, although those two are slightly more proven commodities.

    From a fans' perspective, Gathright is an energetic presence and a fun player to watch. Every team could use a sparkplug such as Joey, in some role, somewhere.

    0 recs | Comment 24 comments

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    Comments

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    I really don't think he'll get worse
    When a player takes a significant step forward in his age 26 season, I think it is more likely that it is development than fluke.  At an age when a player is supposed to improve, he improved.  Not only did his stats improve, but his approach improved as well.  He made more contact and he improved his bunting greatly.  For a player of his speed, good bunting is critical.  He decided to rely on this speed and put the ball on the ground and he made it work for him.

    I don't expect greatness from Gathright.  I don't think he'll ever be good enough to be a regular corner OFer.  I think his defensive deficiencies make it unlikely that he'll ever be good enough to be a starter CFer either.  But I do expect him to be a pretty good 4th OFer and one should expect at least a little improvement in 2008.

    OBP: .375
    SLG: .360

    I probably disagree with you.

    by NYRoyal on Jan 27, 2008 6:44 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    RoyalsNation, I have a question
    You said that he has a 55% chance of repeating his 2007 form or having a breakout season, and yet your statistical prediction has him markedly worse than 2007.  Isn't that a contradiction?
    I probably disagree with you.

    by NYRoyal on Jan 27, 2008 7:05 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    I must have missed this
    Sometimes I do sway from my original projection (in this case, % chance regresses from '07).  For instance, I was optimistic on Teahen and Callaspo, but pessimistic on Gathright.  If he received a bit more playing time, I think he could easily post that .280/.360/.320 that seems to be his 'safe bet'.  But considering his 2006, I'm not inclined to believe it's a safe bet, yet.  Gathright is a once highly-regarded prospect who had fizzled a bit before 2007.  I'm just not as optimistic as even my own prediction would tell you, I guess...if that makes any sense.
    Visit my Royals blog: The Royal Treatment!

    by Royals Nation on Jan 29, 2008 10:12 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    To elaborate even further
    One objection that I have with ranking systems such as 'ZiPS' is that sometimes I believe they are a little too safe.  I made my projections to add up the offensive production of the entire team over the season, rather than grant more playing time to players who simply won't receive it (a la Justin Huber).

    I'm a risktaker.  Sometimes, I think it might pay off in the end.

    Visit my Royals blog: The Royal Treatment!

    by Royals Nation on Jan 29, 2008 10:15 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    I like Joey
    He's a fun guy to root for and he was a pretty cool guy the few minutes I talked to him at a bar once. Its nice to have a guy that can create havoc on the basepaths and bunt for hits, even if its not a strategy I'd recommend on a regular basis.

    He's a nice guy to have as a bench player, but he probably shouldn't be getting more than 300 PAs a year.

    I'd expect a .280/.350/.320 from Joey.

    Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

    by RoyalsRetro on Jan 27, 2008 10:41 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    Its kind of sad
    His optimistic line, according to this is a .750 OPS.
    If I had a rocket ship, I'd never want to land.

    by dman126 on Jan 28, 2008 11:25 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    Projections and OPS
    NY Royal has a good point about these projections. While Gathright's batting average might regress to the mean a bit this year, his overall skill set is better than .260/.340/.320. If I had to guess, I'd say something like .280/.365/.340.

    OPS is good as a quick reference for a player's overall offensive prowess, but it actually undervalues OBP slightly in comparison to SLG (at least, according to Rob Neyer). So Gathright's OPS is more productive than your average 700ish OPS, especially if he returns to form on the basepaths. Talented enough to start for a lot of teams, he should probably be a fourth outfielder for the Royals. I think he'll be one of the best fourth outfielders in baseball.

    by Melchizedek on Jan 28, 2008 8:43 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    Like Joey
    He is a good player, I like watch him play.

    by fergusques on Jan 29, 2008 12:05 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    probably a dead horse, but
    does dejesus have any trade value at all?  i'd love to see gathright play every day in CF.  and dejesus looks more anemic and uninspiring every time i see him play.

    dejesus for a-rod, straight up.  we'll even let a-rod play short.

    by Gordon Roy on Jan 29, 2008 8:30 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    He has trade value
    I believe those rumors that Atlanta was interested, but he's coming off a less than stellar season. I'd wait for him to revive his value somewhat.

    But I am uncomfortable having Gathright start every day. He's a huge drop off offensively from DJ.

    Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

    by RoyalsRetro on Jan 29, 2008 9:37 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    Callaspo
    If the Royals determine that Callaspo can get on base enough to be a suitable leadoff replacement for DDJ, then I think DDJ's likelihood of being traded increases greatly. IMO Gathright cannot leadoff for a contender, but he could be a very competent #9 hitter, so it depends on Callaspo's ability to be a leadoff hitter, at least in my eyes.
    If I had a rocket ship, I'd never want to land.

    by dman126 on Jan 29, 2008 11:31 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    DDJ has tailed off
    but he's still a very solid option in CF, if a little bland, he's cheap

    I can see the Royals trading him at mid-season however

    by royalsreview on Jan 29, 2008 1:09 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    Is one bad season a "tail off"?
    Will, I'm not directing this at you, per se.  This is more for the DeJesus-isn't-particularly-good crowd.  One down season is not declining player.  Not at his age.  One should not evaluate him on 2007 alone.  You have to include 2005 and 2006 as well.  

    And I don't know why people call him "bland" or "boring."  What does that mean?  He's an above average major league CFer with multiple plus skills.  And he's cheap.  Players who are above average for their position with cheap long-term contracts are quite valuable, both to the Royals and on the trade market.

    I probably disagree with you.

    by NYRoyal on Jan 29, 2008 2:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    I agree
    He's no superstar, and will never be your leading hitter, but he's a solid starter who should be a part of the kind of team you build towards.
    Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

    by RoyalsRetro on Jan 29, 2008 3:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    good point
    we've soured on him quickly
    I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

    by LeoBloom on Jan 29, 2008 4:13 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    yea...
    I suppose the blandness is more how we feel about him, now that he's just kinda there. You gotta remember, I can remember after the Beltran trade reading about how DDJ was going to be almost as good, or at least to what Damon had been.

    I remember last season when the PECOTAs came out and it basically pegged DDJ as already having topped out (which looks accurate). That was a bit of a blow.

    But anyway, no, he's not actually a bad player or anything. Its just no one sees promise anymore, rightly or wrongly.

    by royalsreview on Jan 29, 2008 4:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    Trading DeJesus
    I agree with NYRoyal that DeJesus is a cheap, above average CF. That's not somebody you want to trade just to make room for Gathright, or because you have another competent leadoff hitter. We could trade him if we get full value, but there's no way we would get that right now. He is also a much better defensive CF than Gathright at this point. And calling DeJesus boring is really no critique of his skill or value.

    Also, I think we have to get away from the mindset of having one player to fill each niche on the team. Depth is good. If we trade Teahen or DeJesus, then as soon as someone gets injured, Shane Costa is getting PAs in Kansas City. That's fine when you're in rebuilding mode, but now that we're turning the corner and actually trying to field a good Major League team, it isn't acceptable. We actually need four good outfielders, because I don't want to see Costa vs. Sabathia in a pennant race. So unless Lubanski starts tearing Omaha apart with his bare hands (and a bat) or something, there's no burning need to trade away an outfielder.

    by Melchizedek on Jan 29, 2008 3:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    Much worse, in my opinion
    I don't think Costa is much better than his career MLB numbers.  The fact that he took a step backwards last year is, in my mind, telling.  I've never seen much to like about him and I don't see him improving much.  I would expect this kind of line from the two players:

    Costa .260/.295/.350
    Joey .285/.370/.350

    Given that OBP is more important than SLG, Joey's line is much better than Costa's.

    I probably disagree with you.

    by NYRoyal on Jan 29, 2008 4:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    The question is
    Would Costa be worse than DDJ? The answer is clearly and emphatically yes, so losing DDJ would hurt the team significantly. Obviously, if you get enough back, you make the trade. I just don't think it's something we should have a quick trigger finger about.

    by Melchizedek on Jan 29, 2008 9:30 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    the equation has to be
    Gathright + Something New > DDJ

    if Gathright can truly hit .300/.400/.350, i might take those odds

    I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

    by LeoBloom on Jan 29, 2008 4:14 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    If...
    he can improve his OF defensive versatility and bump his successful SB% to 75% or more, Gator can be a very very useful player.  Think Juan Pierre, with potentially better OBP.

    Those are both big ifs though.

    "I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

    by DC Royal on Jan 29, 2008 4:33 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    The big problem with Gathright in CF
    While Gathright won't show much power, I think he can make enough contact, beat out of IF singles and bunts and draw enough walks to maintain a high OBP and make for a good leadoff hitter.  The problem is his defense.  While he obviously has tremendous speed, he routinely makes horrible reads in the field and uses awful judgement.  Often (perhaps usually) he misreads balls and takes the wrong first (and sometimes second) step.  And while he tries very hard, this often leads to him making bad calls on whether to dive for a ball or let it ball.  How many times did we see Joey dive for a ball well out of reach and then chase it as it rolled to the wall?  These problems lead to him being a well below average defensive CFer.
    I probably disagree with you.

    by NYRoyal on Jan 29, 2008 4:58 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

    Gator's Parabolic Routes
    Chasing after routine flies are hard to watch in LF, let alone CF. Even though he often outruns his mistakes, his arm is not only weak but inaccurate to boot. Unless we get an offer we can't refuse, DDJ is the smart play in CF. Even then, I move Teahen to CF and Guillen to RF.
    I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

    by philofthenorth on Jan 30, 2008 4:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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