Programming Note

Making a bunch of "actual predictions" is not really my thing.  Picking one number and then arguing that number is "right" and someone else's number is "wrong" even though both fall within realistic projections is rather tedious and pointless (kind of like making up trade proposals).  I am more interested in discussing the reasons why a particular player may improve his performance (or why it may not happen).  I prefer to focus on a player's skills and how they relate to past and future performance, rather than the other way around.  I actually value scouting as much as stats, but because good statistical information is readily available but good scouting information is harder to find, I am sure I discuss stats more frequently.

As for going out on a limb, this is not sports talk radio.  I do not see the point in arguing something that I really do not believe just to stir things up and debate for the hell of it.  In any event, I have certainly been in the minority on many offseason issues, especially on everything Guillen (his poor defense, his underrated offense, his contract), Bannister, and DeJesus.  

On how the team will perform overall, I have not run any numbers (and I usually don't -- again, not my thing), but just by eyeballing the roster, I am probably pretty close to Will.  I think the offense improves primarily due to the Guillen, improvement from Gordon and Butler, and a rebound from DeJesus, but with out machines currently occupying three lineup spots (Pena, Buck/Olivo, and Shealy/Gload), the improvement is more in the range of 35-45 runs.  If Hillman minimizes those players' plate appearances, the number should go up.

I also think the defense will be good, but a step down from last year with Guillen playing everyday (he really needs to DH when Greinke starts), Grudz aging, Butler likely playing more 1B, and Pena likely losing playing time to Callaspo (or a SS to be acquired).  

While the relatively worse defense should negatively affect the pitchers' performances, whether the staff ultimately improves or not frankly depends on how Hillman picks and uses the staff.  In comparison to his 2007 numbers, Greinke is hurt by swapping out the relief innings for starter innings (his strikeout rate should go down and his HR rate should go up, as he loses 2-3 MPH off his fastball as a starter).  And considering his young age and the reduced number of innings the last two years (120 IP and 112 IP), Hillman might limit him to 160-180 IP (183 IP is his career high).  But I think his natural development makes him improve overall, even though his FIP might slide into the higher 3.00s.  I think Meche's walk rate should slip by 0.5 and his problem of throwing too many pitches did not go away (4.0 P/PA), but he keeps the strikeouts and groundballs and still posts a FIP in the low 4.00s.  Bannister and his extremely low BABIP regress to a FIP near 4.50, and Tomko pitches somewhere around 4.75-5.00.  Of the fifth starter candidates, I think Bale or Nunez could stay under 5.00 until Hochevar is ready, but the rest are strictly replacement level and no real improvement over last year.  As for the bullpen, Greinke and Riske to Mahay and Yabuta is a downgrade (although Yabuta is a question mark), but Tsao could make a large impact if healthy, so it should be strong even if not quite as good as last year.  Overall, I would expect a marginal improvement of 5-10 runs, but if de la Rosa, Davies, and the other replacement level starters get 30+ starts, the runs allowed will go up.  

So if you need a number to play with, I'll go with 77-79 wins.