Greinke vs. Bannister
Today I had a rather heated debate with a friend of mine about who is the better starting pitcher, Zack Greinke or Brian Bannister. It is an interesting debate because the two of them are such polar opposites. We asked the following questions:
- Which one will have more success as a starting pitcher in coming years.
- Which one has a better shot at becoming an ace, a dominant #1.
- What is the more important to a good starter: a) athleticism, a great arm, and great "stuff". OR b) intellect, pitching knowledge, "baseball smarts', a strong mental make-up.
My friend disagreed. Believing that Greinke's amazing stuff, his athleticism, and his success late last year as a starter, are enough to prove that he is the better pitcher. Quite possibly the best pitcher in our rotation, and the one most likely to succeed. He also believed that Greinke is more likely to become an ace, for some team, if not the Royals.
I think if Zack were in the bullpen, he could get by on his stuff, but as a starter his mental stamina will break down over the long season. And I think, in the long run, there are more examples of successful starters with Bannister's traits, those with less than great stuff who have succeeded by knowing how to pitch, knowing their opponents, being focus, determined, and mentally prepared. He may never be an ace, but I'll put my money on Bannister over Greinke.
What do you think?
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My answers
- Probably Greinke
- Definitely Greinke
- Probably "a"
Greinke has excellent stuff, including multiple good pitches, excellent control, good strength and stamina and probably sufficient intellect, etc. Bannister has ok stuff, excellent control, good strength and stamina and excellent intellect, strategic thinking, etc. It is Greinke's stuff, mixed with his great control which makes him a possible ace and likely will have a better career than Bannister.
by NYRoyal on
Feb 12, 2008 11:47 PM EST
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good stuff
One thing about Greinke, he's a year younger than Alex Gordon.
While I can't imagine ZG approaching the game the same way as BB, Greinke does have a certain flair for approaching hitters, or at least used to. He's received a lot of bad advice since becoming a Royal, but hopefully all that is behind him now.
We shall see with Banny... I see him as a guy that will be amenable to developing new pitches, like showing up one spring with a screwball or something.
by royalsreview on
Feb 13, 2008 12:15 AM EST
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Echoing RR on Greinke's age...
by stuckinstl12 on
Feb 13, 2008 12:32 AM EST
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Greinke's approach
Now, I'm willing to concede that Bannister's clearly one of the most cerebral pitchers in the league, more so than Greinke. But I do think Greinke's got a natural talent for keeping batters off balance.
The eephus, the quick pitch, the changing of speeds, his little curve ball --- these are all hallmarks of a guy that is succeeding on guile more than on talent.
This part of Greinke's repertoire was part of what made me love him so much. When they R's brought in pitching coaches to tell Zack to dial it up to 95, I thought that was one of the most ridiculous suggestions possible.
The amazing thing is that in addition to abandoning his bag of tricks, Zack seems to actually have harnessed this ability to throw in the mid-90's. So, now he's successful, again, but for a completely different reason.
Does that mean that if he uses his new approach AND brings back his quirky trick pitches that he'll become the greatest pitcher of his generation? Quite possibly.
by marbotty on
Feb 13, 2008 6:41 AM EST
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The Royals and Good Players
I think the premise of the debate, that Grienke doesn't pitch intelligently, is flawed. He's just been jerked around enough by stupid coaching and management that it looked that way for a couple of years. First, the Royals tried to shoehorn him into their ridiculous "pitch to contact" philosophy. Then, they convinced him to stop dipping into his bag of tricks like the quick pitch and the slow curve. I remember reading a quote from Grienke in early 2005 in which he said he was going to drop all that stuff and just try to "let his defense work for him," and I knew right then that it wasn't going to be a good year.
This is actually an overweening problem with the Royals' handling of premium talents. It seems we coach them with an eye toward making them more scrappy, instead of taking advantage of their natural strengths. The Royals tried to teach Grienke, who had the stuff and feel for pitching to be an ace almost right out of highschool, to pitch to contact. They tried to teach Billy Butler, who has "right handed Edgar Martinez" written all over him, to take everything the other way.
Some guys don't have much power, and really need to take pitchers the other way. Some guys don't have great stuff, so they need to induce weak contact. But watching the Royals, it's like we don't even want to have great players who do the big things. We just want to have mediocre players who do the little things.
by Melchizedek on
Feb 13, 2008 7:46 AM EST
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an overweening problem
I can understand trying to change a player who is performing poorly or only moderately well. But why would/do the R's brass go out of their way to make it more difficult for guys that actually seem to be performing well? If it ain't broke...
by marbotty on
Feb 13, 2008 8:31 AM EST
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Zack
by kcdoc85 on
Feb 13, 2008 12:28 AM EST
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Zack's pitching smarts, etc.
As far as his mental/emotional issues, I think the fear that he's going to freak out are overblown. Therapy and medications do wonders for the depression and anxiety issues that he has. If he didn't lose it last season, I don't expect him to do so in the future.
by NYRoyal on
Feb 13, 2008 1:06 AM EST
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if this makes any sense
by marbotty on
Feb 13, 2008 6:45 AM EST
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If He Can
by philofthenorth on
Feb 13, 2008 1:56 AM EST
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Hate to break it to you,
Greinke 3.80 ERA as a starter in 07
Bannister 3.87 ERA as a starter in 07
Now, factor in the 2 year age difference, the astronomical difference in stuff, and his overcoming of the gross mismanagement of his career by the Royals, and I think it's not even particulary close which will be the better starter.
As for potential ace - all I can say is Bannister has virtually no chance at that. Think of all the "aces" in the game today, and every one of them has much better stuff than Bannister. Greinke, on the other hand, has comparable stuff to anybody labelled an ace today.
This is not a slam against Bannister - I think his approach is admirable, and given good health, guarantees him success as well. It's just that I think his upside is no higher than a #3, perhaps a fringe #2. Think Jeff Suppan, but with a chance at a smidgeon better control. That is nobody's definition of an ace - but somebody every team would love to have in it's rotation.
by loyal2s dad on
Feb 13, 2008 12:03 PM EST
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when you project a .07 ERA difference...
That being said, I agree that Greinke definitely has more upside. But as a starter, you could arguably say that Bannister had the better 2007, that's all.
I'm also really worried about Bannister getting injured this year because he was so overworked towards the end of the year by Buddy Bell.
by DarthYoshi on
Feb 13, 2008 2:04 PM EST
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Greinke was better in more than just ERA
Bannister posted a below average 1.75 K:BB ratio: 4.20 K/9, 2.40 BB/9. His 3.87 ERA was 2/3 run worse than his 4.52 FIP.
Greinke was the better pitcher last year.
by Gopherballs on
Feb 13, 2008 4:39 PM EST
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Not so fast
I still think you can make the argument that Bannister had a slightly better 2007. At the very least, they were equally effective.
by DarthYoshi on
Feb 13, 2008 9:28 PM EST
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It is more than just defense
"The low correlation coefficients for in-play batting average suggest that there's a lot more room for random variation in these outcomes than in the defense-independent outcomes. I believe this follows quite naturally from the physics of the game. When a round bat meets a round ball at upwards of 90 miles per hour, and when that ball has laces and some sort of spin, miniscule differences in the nature of that impact can make the difference between a hit and an out. In other words, there's quite a bit of luck involved."
Tom Tippett, "Can pitchers prevent hits on balls in play?" (2003).
Nor did Greinke and Bannister face the same hitters in the same ballparks. In fact, 9 of Greinke's 14 starts were against the 6 best AL offenses (all over 5.00 R/G), while only 8 of Bannister's 27 starts were against those teams.
Defense also does not affect pitchers equally. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, Greinke is not going to get as much help from Gordon, TPJ, and Grudz as Bannister (who is just slightly below average as a groundballer).
And WHIP is a fantasy stat that is pretty useless as an analytical tool. BB/9, HR/9, and BABIP (especially when used with LD%, GB%, FB%, and HR/FB) collectively provide the same information in greater detail.
by Gopherballs on
Feb 14, 2008 4:19 PM EST
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One quick note on FIP
ERA is a very different measure than FIP, so I don't think saying that one pitcher's FIP was closer to his ERA than another is particularly meaningful. Even if one concludes that FIP is a meaningful measure, it should not be compared to ERA.
FIP is basically a measure of a pitcher's "three true outcomes." In that regard, Greinke was better than Bannister. But the "three true outcomes" are not all that is important with regard to pitching. As has been pointed out many times before, some pitchers succeed consistently without extremely high strikeout rants and/or extremely low walk rates. I don't think one should completely ignore "real result" statistics, such as how many runs the pitcher allowed in the innings he pitched.
by NYRoyal on
Feb 13, 2008 9:54 PM EST
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I am hardly a fan of the overuse of DIPS
The whole concept of DIPS, by Voros McCracken, defense independent pitching stats, Ks, BBs, HRs, is based on that.
Or in "old school" terms, stuff, command and control.
Most studies on DIPS have shown that pitchers have less control, usually much less control, of hBIP (hits on balls in play) than hitters.
The idea of using BABIP, when looking at a pitcher is based on this.
That is not to say that all pitchers have no control over hBIP and it is all luck.
Bannister's BABIP was 261. His "expected" BABIP, was 320.
Also, the studies that have been done on home run per flyball rate show that most pitchers are around a rate of 10%. It's why ground ball pitchers are considered desirable.
Bannister was at 7.6%.
That is not to say Bannister was lucky.
Some pitchers succeed consistently at outperforming their DIPS stats, and at limiting hBIP: Tom Glavine is the most famous example.
Maybe Bannister has that same skill.
Note, I am not saying that Greinke was better than Bannister because his DIPS stats were better.
by rfloh on
Feb 14, 2008 8:22 AM EST
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I agree
by NYRoyal on
Feb 14, 2008 1:15 PM EST
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agreed
by FireBell on
Feb 14, 2008 3:02 PM EST
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I am the last thing from being
According to BPro, Bannister was very good at giving up fewer hits than he "should" have last year. He gave up 23 fewer hits than he should have, given the Royals D and compared to the rest of the team.
Many elite pitchers, including pitchers as dissimilar as Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez, have managed to give up fewer hits than they should, over their careers; though 23 hits less than he should have in a single season, tends towards the high side.
Glavine has allowed 53 fewer hits than he should have over his career; Maddux, 60 fewer; Pedro, 69 fewer.
Let's see if Bannister, if not keep up last year's rates, at least manage to allow fewer hits than expected over his career.
by rfloh on
Feb 15, 2008 2:49 AM EST
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I'm probably being too hard on Greinke.
Just as we can't crown Bannister, because of one season of success, we shouldn't ignore Greinke's last FOUR years. Regarless of how much blaime goes to the coaching.
I wish Greinke the best, but he is no ace.
by kcdoc85 on
Feb 13, 2008 2:38 PM EST
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Last 4 years?
by Melchizedek on
Feb 13, 2008 10:12 PM EST
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suppan
He's
Suppan + little better control - the whine.
That's good.
by doublestix on
Feb 13, 2008 4:19 PM EST
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with the same love of Jesus
by FireBell on
Feb 14, 2008 3:03 PM EST
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Greinke's tricks..
When Zack came up as a rookie, I don't think you can name me one prospect in baseball who had as much fun as him..Then he got "over-coached" and lost the fun..
I think Hillman and Greinke will be the absolute most perfect matchup and probably the BEST pure coaching talent to tap into Zack's potential greatness and "reach him".
No, I think you see a different Zack this year. Meaner, more aggressive and having fun with his coach...and tricking batters in every game..
Bring out the Eephus, Zack..Let's have fun!
by THEbobhamelin on
Feb 13, 2008 2:20 PM EST
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greinke
by doublestix on
Feb 13, 2008 4:19 PM EST
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If KC was offering to make a trade and
The mental side and character is probably undervalued. It is valuable. How many guys have we seen with awesome stuff and dumb as a post or lack the heart to do anything with it?
Greinke could be an ace. Don't ever see Bannister in the #1 role. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are the exceptions to the rules. I am glad KC has both of them. If Hochevar can be a good combination of both, the rotation looks good for the future along with Meche.
by daveyork on
Feb 13, 2008 4:57 PM EST
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I am glad KC has Greinke and Bannister, not
by daveyork on
Feb 13, 2008 5:00 PM EST
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What is "stuff"?
by CentralChamps2009 on
Feb 14, 2008 5:56 PM EST
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Charlie Liebrandt
by philofthenorth on
Feb 14, 2008 8:30 PM EST
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I still see a future of:
Greinke #2
Meche #2
Bannister #2/3
Hochevar #3
Someone else #5
To me, that looks like a really good rotation. Hopefully this is more than just fan optimism.
by NYRoyal on
Feb 13, 2008 6:10 PM EST
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same...actually
Guess what...we have many guys with the potential to be #3 starters or better too. Cortes, Wood, Pimentel, Rosa just to name the ones close. I will honestly say I believe in Davies too, and some work with McClure might do wonders for him...
by doublestix on
Feb 13, 2008 6:25 PM EST
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Good point
by NYRoyal on
Feb 13, 2008 6:29 PM EST
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KC's pitching depth will be seen more in the
Exciting to think about the possiblities of who is on the staff already. I don't feel like any of the top 3 - Meche, Greinke or Bannister are Andy Sisco types either. I also think Hochevar will be a breakout candidate for midseason. I hope KC starts him at Omaha unless his ST is so strong he totally wins a 4/5 spot.
Hochevar's hometown is Fowler, CO which is about 30 miles from where I live in the Pueblo area of CO. He gets lots of press in this region of S. Colorado. I root for him for the Royals and as a CO guy!
by daveyork on
Feb 13, 2008 11:24 PM EST
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The draft will be interesting
As pretty much everyone says, the Royals should draft the best player available, particularly in the first round. But I have to say that if one were to consider organizational need, we need some big bats more than good arms right now. I really like how the Royals rotation projects for the next four years. There are positions on the field that are shaky not just a the major league level right now, but throughout the organization.
by NYRoyal on
Feb 13, 2008 11:30 PM EST
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I generally agree
I'd be pretty happy with any of the top six prospects though - Smoak, Alvarez, Matusz, Crow, Beckham, Melville. They all seem pretty solid.
College baseball starts next Friday!
by RoyalsRetro on
Feb 14, 2008 10:56 AM EST
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perfect
by DyeFan187 on
Feb 14, 2008 11:36 AM EST
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If...
by dman126 on
Feb 14, 2008 12:41 PM EST
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Length of career
Many pitchers that have studied players and the game like Banny does had long careers: Curt Schilling, Maddox, Glavine, Tim Belcher, etc. I think it requires putting a lot of thought in the game to last that long.
I think Greinke has the potential to be a thinking pitcher some day (and probably just as much potential to move in the opposite direction). But it takes a special pitcher to continue pitching into their late 30s. Anybody that can dominate purely with stuff at age 40 has got to be on steroids or is an alien.
by eakers on
Feb 14, 2008 2:23 PM EST
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I wanna see the old greinke back
by FireBell on
Feb 14, 2008 3:03 PM EST
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I want Greinke to trust his stuff, not gimmicks
by NYRoyal on
Feb 14, 2008 3:41 PM EST
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Probably The Best
by philofthenorth on
Feb 14, 2008 8:36 PM EST
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