Maroth joins the party

by cookierojas73 on Feb 9, 2008 1:20 PM EST Comment 53 comments

From the diaries... -RR

Another warm body is coming to camp: Mike Maroth.
It's amazing how many guys Moore is collecting and inviting to camp...but it makes sense.

I kind of like this move...obviously he was awful last year, but if healthy, the guy has had a little success in the A.L. in the past and, what the heck, he is a lefty. If he can't make the rotation (which I'd have to think he has an outside chance of doing, at least), maybe he could be a decent relief option, or at least insurance. If he pitched well it could free up someone (Gobble, etc.) to potentially be put in a deal. All in all, since this is a minor-league deal, it's a no-brainer signing.

Full story (excerpted below) at KC Star:

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/481989.html

Royals sign Maroth to minor-league deal
By BOB DUTTON
The Kansas City Star

The quest to find a left-handed starting pitcher prompted the Royals to sign veteran Mike Maroth to a minor-league contract that includes an invitation to big-league camp.

Maroth, 30, was a combined 5-7 with a 6.89 ERA last season while splitting time with Detroit and St. Louis. He pitched just 13 games for the Tigers in 2006 before suffering season-ending elbow surgery to remove bone chips.

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Minor league contract,

hard not to like this signing. Another nice move by Dayton Moore.

I wonder what the Omaha rotation will look like? With Luke Hudson, Brandon Duckworth, Mike Maroth and Brian Lawrence likely to end up in Omaha that is a lot of major league experience in the 2nd string rotation. Matt Wright, Hochevar, Lumsden and Kyle Davies need to find innings somewhere also.

Wow, the Royals are just stacked with starting pitching possibilities. Some will pan out.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 8, 2008 8:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's gotten to the point...

...that I'd forgotten about some of these guys that have been signed/invited. Don't forget Nomo!

You're right; Omaha's rotation will be interesting. Nothing like having a little pitching depth (albeit mediocre)...can't say it has been a tradition in KC of late.

by cookierojas73 on Feb 8, 2008 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wish Moore would start thinking about stockpiling

batters. Our offense was horrible last year.

Anyway, as for this move, I can understand the philosophy behind getting a bunch of mediocre pitchers with a little upside, hoping that if you throw enough of them into the rotation, eventually one will stick.

But aren't you sort of condemning yourself to having a bad pitcher in the rotation at some point (or for very long stretches) by doing that?

I guess it depends on what Moore's intention with these guys is, but it seems like if you're depending on Nomo, Lawrence and Maroth to fill a rotation spot instead of just handing it over to someone like Hochevar, your odds of success go down significantly.

Let's say, for example, that Lawrence, Nomo, and Maroth each have a 33% chance of having a good season (below 5.00 ERA) and a 10% chance of having a great season (below 4.25). Conversely, let's say that Hochevar has a 50% chance of having a good season, and a 20% chance of having a great season.

Even if you add up all of the first group's chances, (1 in 3, 1 in 3, 1 in 3) you're looking at a 3 in 9 chance (i.e. a 33% chance) of having a good season. In other words, your odds don't improve.

Let's even go so far to say that we know that two of those guys, although we're not sure which two, have the same chance of success as Hochevar (50%). Even here you're still worse off collectively (1 in 3, 1.5 in 3, 1.5 in 3, or 4 in 9, a 44% chance) if you give everybody a shot at the rotation rather than just handing it over to Hochevar.

Like everything I come up with on this site, it is simplified analysis, I know -- the theory just came to me 10 minutes ago -- and this all presupposes we know how good Hochevar, Nomo, Lawrence, and Maroth's chances are for success.

Clearly we do not know for certain what those odds are. But if we can reasonably agree that these are all relatively accurate odds of success, then it makes sense to just give Hochevar the job, rather than opening it up to competition in spring training, and then handing it over to one of the four based on 10 innings of work. Hopefully this makes sense to someone other than myself.

So, in short, I hope those guys were brought in to be used strictly as backups in case somebody goes down to injury, rather than as actual contenders for the starting rotation.

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Feb 9, 2008 3:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Depth like this,

beyond giving the Royals a larger pile of wall crap (keep throwing that crap at the wall, maybe some will stick) it also takes into account the reality that in all likelihood the Royals will need to call on about nine different pitchers to start games this year. It is nice to have guys like Duckworth, Hudson, etc in the organization. Chances are they will not be horrible if called upon.

I agree with your take on Maroth. There probably is about a 40% chance he will not be horrible. Those are good odds if all that is at stake is a $75K Minor League contact.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 9, 2008 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well does Kevin Mench

fill your need for depth? Because MLBTR in their Maroth post mentions that the team is also interested in him.

by Skirra on Feb 9, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I do love me some Shrek...

I really miss that Matt Stairsian grit

Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.

by PhattStairs on Feb 9, 2008 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

KC Star confirmed this interest in Mench

If he signs a split contract, another no-lose deal. If he insists on a major league deal, I am not at all sure he would make the team.

And as long as Moore is signing minor league deals I wish he would go ahead and sign Mike Sweeney to one as well. He wants to stay. What is the harm in giving him a chance to earn the spot outright in spring? The worst that happens is the Royals show Mike a bit more respect at the cost of a few dozen spring training at bats. Who can say for sure that Mike wouldn't accept a month or two in Omaha if it came down to that? Preston Wilson is worth a similar offer as long as he wants to continue his career and he is recovering well. The Royals sure could use some more insurance bats in Omaha.

And I wouldn't hate them making MiLB offers Jeff Weaver, Akinori Otsuka, Rodrigo Lopez and Eric Milton as well. If they sign, great! If not, no harm done. And Otsuka, Lopez and Milton all have a shot at regaining effectiveness as long as they recover from injury well. And Weaver might still figure it out. KC is a good low pressure organization for guys to rebuild a career within.

Where did Chris Shelton end up?

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 9, 2008 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Minor league deals

I have no problem with signing Sweeney to a minor league deal, but maybe Sweeney does. A month or so ago pretty much everyone was saying that if Moore offered Sweeney a minor league deal, it would be an insult, so he shouldn't do it. Maybe it would be an insult now; maybe it wouldn't. Maybe Moore has already offered him one. Maybe Sweeney only wants to play again if he knows he's playing on a major league team. I would be very happy to sign Sweeney to a minor league deal and have him at spring training. But if this doesn't happen, we can't assume that Sweeney wasn't offered such a deal.

The Rangers ended up outrighting Shelton to the minors. This means he must have cleared waivers. Apparently no major league team was interested in him.

Otsuka underwent elbow surgery in mid-January. He has not said if it is Tommy John surgery, but I think that is likely. Regardless, he'll likely not be pitching for anyone in 2008. Milton had Tommy John surgery in June, so he'll be out for at least the first half of the season and won't be at 100% at any point this season. Lopez had Tommy John surgery in August and will likely miss the entire 2008 season.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 9, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be happy with Mench or Shelton or Otsuka

or Wilson. They'd all add depth, and as far as Mench, Shelton and Wilson go, they could be an upgrade at DH or as 4th outfielder.

Not sure I'd see the point to adding Milton, but I'd not be too upset. The main point of my rant was that the pitchers be signed mainly as depth in case of injury, not as guys competing outright for a job.

Despite conventional wisdom, I think if you have a competition going into spring training, all it really shows is that you've got two or more mediocre players competing for a role. If the player is established, there's no reason to have a competion, you just give him the job. Anything else would be crazy.

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by marbotty on Feb 9, 2008 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Competition

I don't think there will be any competition for a roster spot for "established players." There will be competition for roles on the team which are essentially open and unfilled. Competition for those spots is a good thing because it is much better to have multiple mediocre-to-poor players competing for a couple roster spots than just one or two such players.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 9, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The very recent past

Back in 2005 and 2006, when Baird would sign guys like Maroth, they would not be coming in as AAA insurance. They would come in with a starting job to loose.

Omaha will most likely break camp with a rotation made up of some combination of these guys:

Luke Hochevar
Luke Hudson
Brandon Duckworth
Mike Maroth
Brian Lawrence
Kyle Davies
Matt Wright
Tyler Lumsden

That rotation might be superior to the rotation the Royals broke camp with in 2006 ... AT THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL:

Scott Elarton
Joe Mays
Jeremy Affeldt
Denny Bautista
Mark Redman

Dayton Moore has done an amazing job with the KC pitching staff. Of the five guys who won starting jobs in March of 2006, only Affeldt would likely even make the 2008 Royals, and then only as a middle reliever.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 9, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One more note on minor league contracts

Sometimes some of these contracts have a clause in them -- or a verbal agreement in addition to the contract -- that if the player doesn't make the major league roster, he'll be released so that he can catch on somewhere else. Maroth, Lawrence, Nomo and/or Tsao could have deals like that. So, some of these guys who don't make the 25-man roster might not be available in AAA as a call up during the season. I'm not saying this means we shouldn't have given them a minor league contract; it's just something that we should keep in mind.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 9, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know of some past examples of contract in which

the player had to be added to the 25 man roster by some early date, such as May 1st, or given the option of demanding outright release. This might be how the Royals acquired Duckworth. The Pirates sold him to the Royals for $25K because they did not want to add him to their roster while the Royals were willing to add him immediately. I don't know if this sale was forced by Duckworth's contract, but the situation makes me think this very well might have been the case. After all, Ducky is not exactly worthless as a pitcher, and the Pirates were not stocked with Cy Young candidates. He certainly seems to be worth more than a used Saab. Buying Ducky was Dayton Moore's first transaction as a KC GM.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 9, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We also lost

Adam Bernero that way.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 10, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MiLB contracts

As long as we are stocking up on risky arms, and talking about guys like Weaver and Milton, why not Freddy Garcia? I've not heard any rumors about him all winter. What the story on him? Still recovering from surgery? He possibly has the best career stats of any of the free agent starting pitchers. He is only 31. Is he still pitching?

117 W - 72 L, 4.07 ERA.

no outs to go!

by kcdoc85 on Feb 9, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Injury

Some players are so injured, that they really aren't worth even the investment of a minor league contract, particularly since the Royals would have to pick up their medical bills. Ozzie Guillen (related to Garcia by marriage) said that after shoulder surgery, Garcia might not pitch at all this year. The same is true of Otsuka and Milton. I think Weaver is healthy. He just stinks.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 9, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't include a few guys,

like Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Kris Benson, and Russ Ortiz because, as I understand it, they are demanding MLB contracts. If any of them would sign a non-guaranteed contract that would be great, but I think they will find partners before mating season is over.

I am particularly surprised that Josh Fogg and Steve Trachsel are still out there. I have to think they are just demanding too much money. The Reds were interested in Fogg but, according to Red Reporter, he was asking for a 3/21. Apparently Kris Benson will come for cheap now because his workouts have diminished, not incresed, interest. He might be worth a Dotel still.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 9, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Depth

First, signing these guys to minor league deals does not mean that he's counting on one of them to take a spot in the rotation or even on the major league roster. It means he's giving them a shot. Second, Hochevar should come up when it is best for his development, period. It is quite possible that if he made 30 MLB starts in 2008, he'd do better than any other SP candidate (other than the top 3). But that doesn't mean he should start the year in the rotation. In this case, the choice that maximizes wins is not necessarily the best choice. If the organization thinks he would benefit from starting the season in Omaha, then that is what they should do. I tend to think that is the best course of action.

So, in short, I hope those guys were brought in to be used strictly as backups in case somebody goes down to injury, rather than as actual contenders for the starting rotation.

Interestingly, you compared the odds of success of the aforementioned 3 NRI's and Hochevar, as if they were the only contenders for a spot in the rotation. In reality, Moore's stockpiling is about both finding two SP's for the rotation and stockpiling backups from a pool of Hochevar, De La Rosa, Davies, Tomko, Maroth, Nomo, Lawrence and maybe Wright and Nunez. If, for instance, you've got guys with only a 10-30% chance of having a sub-5 ERA, then you want to acquire as many of these guys as possible so you have a better chance of one of them hitting that mark. If one of these NRI's shows good stuff and command in spring training, and that is better than other pitchers contending for the rotation, I would have no problem with him making the rotation.

Even if you add up all of the first group's chances, (1 in 3, 1 in 3, 1 in 3) you're looking at a 3 in 9 chance (i.e. a 33% chance) of having a good season. In other words, your odds don't improve.

Your math/logic is off. If you have three pitchers with 1 in 3 odds, then the odds of one out of those three pitchers achieving the desired outcome is better than 1 in 3. It's just like lottery tickets. Each lotter ticket has a 1-in-a-billion chance of winning, but your odds of having a winner increase with each additional lottery ticket you buy (for the same drawing).

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 9, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the math

Yeah, the math is not right. If all 3 pitchers have a 1/3 chance of a good season, that would mean they each have 2/3 chance of a bad season. The chances of all three having bad seasons would be 2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3, which equals 8/27. That's less than a 1/3 chance nobody pans out. There's a 19/27 (or better than 2/3) chance that at least one works out--assuming those initial thoughts are correct.

by mikewormdog on Feb 10, 2008 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Depth is important

as long as you don't count on Maroth, it's a good signing.

Obama-Buck 2008!

by NHZ on Feb 9, 2008 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Really like this move

What a great low risk investment. Left handers who have a track record of eating innings in the AL don't grow on trees.

If he makes the team out of spring training, he gives us another reason to keep Hochevar in AAA where he really belongs. If he doesn't, he's good depth for the inevitable injury to a starting pitcher that will occur at some point in the first few months of the season.

I'd rather be watching baseball.

by Sisquatch Kids on Feb 8, 2008 9:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like Maroth

I don't know why, but I like him. You think Jorge De La Rosa just tensed up a little. He thought he had little or no lefty competition. Another great move by Moore. Maroth, Lawrence, Nomo, and Tsao on minor league deals. One of those guys are bound to work out.

by royaldaddy on Feb 8, 2008 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: I like Maroth

I like signing this guy too. From watching him pitch against the Royals, you would think he is a cy young candidate! Well, if you can't beat him, get him to join the team (whether you play him or not).

I think he does have a good chance at being a decent pitcher actually. I think he will spend the first part of the year in AAA and stick when he comes up.

I must say that I am excited to find out who our 4 and 5 will be this year. Does that sound insane to anybody?

by eakers on Feb 10, 2008 9:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It will be interesting

...no matter who it is. Of all of the contenders, I'd only be disappointed if Lawrence or Nomo made the rotation. Really think they are truly done.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 10, 2008 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

useless, but it does at depth

Mike Maroth's best days are behind him, and they were never that good anyway. He's a guy that will likely start the year in AAA, and I hope he stays there. He is not really worth discussing as a legitimate rotation hopeful. He's just one of the five or so guys you can pencil in as 'long shots.' But, like you guys are saying, you can't really complain about this signing. All it is is depth.

Never giving up on your team is what makes you a good fan.

by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Feb 8, 2008 10:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maroth has a career ERA of 5

Sounds about right for a #5 starter. Good depth pick up, he has performed before.

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Feb 8, 2008 10:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good move

You never know, he may return to form, which is as a back of the rotation guy. Heck, he's be St. Louis' ace.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 8, 2008 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

maroth was a historically bad pitcher last season

I read that he set some kind of record for worst ERA in the most innings or something

by royalsreview on Feb 9, 2008 12:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

More depth

Just another pitcher to add to the mix. More competition and more depth is a good thing.

Maroth is interesting. He was horrible in 2007, but over the three years 2004-2006, he was a league average pitcher with two 200+ innings seasons. I don't expect anything more from him than I do from any NRI, but it is good to have multiple options.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 9, 2008 12:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

mike maroth

one of the worst starters in baseball

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/the_best_and_worst_pitchers/

by royalsreview on Feb 9, 2008 12:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Let's not forget

...that when you evaluate a player, you have to look at more than one season. He was an unrelentingly awful pitcher in 2007. But he was basically an average #3 SP overall from 2004-2006. Who knows what he'd do in 2008.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 9, 2008 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes but that list also included

Runelvys Hernandez and Mark Redman.

How accurate can it be if it singles those two guys out as being particularly terrible?

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by marbotty on Feb 9, 2008 2:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

forecasting

MGL's forecasts are based on at least 3 seasons of data. And, what's wrong with calling Redman and Hernandez terrible starters?

Looking at three other forecasting systems for these pitchers:
Maroth:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1508&position=P

Redman:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=491&position=P

Hernandez:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1528&position=P

All of the forecasted for around 5.50 ERA or so, in a league where the average pitcher is 4.40 ERA. That implies a winning percentage of .400. That's fairly terrible.

by tangotiger on Feb 9, 2008 9:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

fairly pointless move

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Feb 9, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i need to work on my sarcasm

i thought it was evident that Redman and Runelvys were terrible

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by marbotty on Feb 9, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Our lefty starter has emerged

Maroth will make a nice 5th starter and will allow us to buy time till Hochevar is ready in AAA. Great signing.

by lordbyronk on Feb 9, 2008 8:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Depth

One thing Dayton Moore seems to understand is that it takes more than 25 guys to play a good season of baseball. A starter will be hurt or ineffective at some point, and that's when signings like this yield dividends. The plan seems to be: throw as many low-cost/medium-upside arms as possible at the AAA competition, and see who has a 2.xx ERA whenever we happen to need another pitcher. Sure beats calling up a 21-yr-old who belongs in AA and risking his future, as has been Royals practice in the past.

GMDMs appreciation for depth can also be seen on the offensive side of the game. For example, he's had the good sense not to see Gathright's performance last year as motivation to trade DeJesus, because a good major league team really needs four outfielders, not three.

by Melchizedek on Feb 9, 2008 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maroth doesn't add depth

he adds subpar play

but it doesnt matter, it will take a horrible chain of events for him to make even 5 starts with the royals

or... Hillman falls in love with him at ST and he's named the #5 starter

one or the other

Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Feb 9, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Do you know how good he is?

More to the point, do you know how good he'd be in 2008? Certainly not. Similarly, we don't know if Nomo or Lawrence have anything left in the tank. You sign them to minor league deals to see if they might be decent. They might. It's worth a shot. I certainly wouldn't say that a pitcher who was an average MLB #3 SP from 2004-2006 is obviously now a horrible pitcher who has no shot of being a decent pitcher again.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 9, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

another thing...

I'm very suspicious of players that were great and then just diminish young...I think a lot of it has to do with the PED fallout...immediately 'roids users fell to the wayside a la Bret Boone/David Bell/Sosa after the allegations, but then a surge from HGH came about which is the ultimate pitcher's drug (no pitcher's elbow baby!)...so with the new fallout I wonder if some of these guys lost their supplier from the busts?...or stopped because they were scared of getting caught?...these statistics these days are skewed awfully wierd

Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.

by PhattStairs on Feb 9, 2008 5:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

which reminds me of what I heard about...

Mark Prior from a Cubs scout...he 'roided at USC and that was figured to be the cause of his arm/shoulder troubles so early...so it makes since that the Cubs didn't resign him even tho they made a good stab at it...I'm glad the Royals didn't give him a chance...we already got 1 bonafide ex-roider to deal with

Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.

by PhattStairs on Feb 9, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

I dunno know about that

was Maroth ever actually good?

Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Feb 9, 2008 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Have you actually looked at his stats?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 9, 2008 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Good" Maroth

was largely a function of starting half his games at Comerica Park.

Road ERA:

2002 6.36
2003 6.45
2004 5.26
2005 3.58
2006 5.12

Career ERA at home: 4.50
Career ERA on road: 5.59

But, yeah, there is no harm in giving him a minor league deal.

by Gopherballs on Feb 10, 2008 4:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good(ish)

From 2004 to 2006, he was pretty good, going by a park and league normalized stat

2004 217 ip, 103 ERA+
2005 209 ip, 90 ERA+
2006 53.2 ip, 109 ERA+

So, in 2004 and 2006, he was a slightly above average #3 SP (before going down with an injury in 2006). And in 2005, he was basically an average #4 SP. If he were able to pitch like that in 2008, I'd love to have him in the rotation. If he continues to pitch at his 2007 level, then I'd release him at the end of spring training.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 10, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maroth was awful in 2006

The shiny 2006 ERA was a fluke thanks to the small sample size (only 53.2 IP) and an insanely good defense behind him -- the 2006 Tigers' overall team defense ranks as one of the best in modern baseball history. Maroth pitched quite poorly in 2006: 5.92 FIP, 4.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9, 42% GB%, 83.8% LOB%.

He performed as a league average starter in 2004, but has progressively fallen apart the last three seasons (4.85 FIP in 2005, 5.92 in 2006, 6.65 in 2007).

All of the major projection systems project an ERA well over five runs -- PECOTA is the most optimistic at 5.15, ZIPS and Marcel have him at 5.59 (in the NL), with Bill James and CHONE in between.

by Gopherballs on Feb 10, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think injury is the key

Maroth was injured in 2006, which I think hurt his performance. Finally he had season ending surgery. From what I've read, he wasn't back to 100% in 2007. He may never be. If he isn't fully healthy (with the stuff and control that goes with it) as he was in 2004 and 2005, then he's going to be pretty worthless. But if he is healthy, he could be a league average pitcher again, or at least close to that level.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 10, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

His surgery in 2006 was to remove bone chips, a pretty routine procedure that should not in itself lead to lingering problems. But there might be other issues with his arm too.

As far as NRIs go, he is not a bad gamble as someone who has at least a of couple years on his resume as a Mark Redman-like innings eater.

by Gopherballs on Feb 10, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I blame Baker having him throw 130 pitches/game

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by marbotty on Feb 10, 2008 2:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My $ .02 worth

What is the down side? If Maroth is awful, just cut him loose during ST. If he shows potential but needs more work, it's a minor league contract so he can work at Omaha along with Hudson, Hochevar, Davies, Wright and the rest. The 08 Omaha staff will probably be better than the KC staff of 06. Totally agree with JQ on this one. It is a mark of the improvement that GMDM has done with KC.

by daveyork on Feb 9, 2008 10:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i love the move...

no risk at all, save the relative pennies for the NRI and MiLB contract, and he has the potential to be a temporary #5 starter.

the more arms the better, it really is amazing that our 2008 AAA rotation is probably better than our 2006 MLB rotation.

by rockchalk on Feb 10, 2008 4:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Kevin Mench

I'm all for offering him a split contract. Dude seems like he can still mash lefties. It does make it tougher for Costa and Gathright to make the team (or for us to carry Gload AND Shealy)

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 10, 2008 1:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

While I'm dubious of Maroth's chances,

there is no harm in taking a (relatively) free look at him.

That being said, I watched him on TV more than a few times with STL last year, and honestly, he didn't look anything like the pitcher he was with Detroit in 05-06.

Duncan, STL pitching coach, has a fairly well deserved reputation for "fixing" pitchers like this - and he could do nothing for him.

My best guess (and, admittedly, it's only a guess) is that Maroth was a borderline talent to begin with, and despite that succeeded due to other, perhaps intangible, factors. When a guy like that loses just a little bit from his limited talent base, sometimes it can be like crossing a tipping point.

No stats or anything else to back up my thoughts - just a gut feeling that his days of being effective are over.

by loyal2s dad on Feb 11, 2008 1:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs