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A spring training stat that isn't meaningless?

It has long been established that spring training stats are not particularly meaningful, reliable or predictive of future performance.  Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus wrote a piece about this a week or so ago and there have been other discussions of it, as there are every spring.  However, there might be one limited exception.  John Dewan, owner of Baseball Info Solutions, most famous for his work in fielding statistics has done some research which shows some correlation between high spring training slugging percentages and improved performance in the next season.  

In his 2006 Baseball Forecaster, he wrote, "A hitter with a positive difference between his spring training slugging percentage and his lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more correlates to a better than normal season."  He recently expanded on this a bit at actasports.com:

A few years ago we discovered that there is a way to use spring training stats to predict future performance. We took all spring training hitters and found that, as expected, about half of them do better than their career norms in the upcoming season, and about half of them do worse than their career norms. However, when we chose only those players doing exceptionally well in spring training, we found that about three-fourths of them performed better than their career average during the upcoming season. Our definition of "exceptionally well" was slugging 100 points higher in spring training than their previous career slugging percentage.

This is still relatively new research and there is some debate about how meaningful this is, but pretty much everyone agrees that there is something here.  Here is what Joe Sheehan at BP had to say about it in a recent chat sesson:

Grasspike (NC): You say Spring Training performance means very little, and for the most part, I agree. However, isn't there a correlation between breakouts and a big spike in slugging percentage?

Joe Sheehan: Yup. I shorthand it, but the one thing--I think this was John Dewan's work--is that a 200-point jump in slugging over career marks is supposed to be real. It's been proven, although I still the variable comp is a major distorting factor.

So, there appears to be something to this, but before we get too excited, we have to remember that Dewan isn't really predicting a "breakout."  He is basically saying that if a player has a slugging percentage much higher than his career SLG, then he has an increased chance that he'll have a better season than his career average.  Basically, he's saying the player will probably get better.  That doesn't tell us a lot, but it's something.

One thing that you have to be careful of is very small sample sizes in career numbers (for a guy like Callaspo with fewer than 200 career MLB at bats or for a guy like Olivo with only 30 spring training at bats)  But, with caveats set and grains of salt ready to be taken, here are some Royals for whom this might be relevant:

Player Career Spring Difference
Jason Smith 382 711 329 (Little Poppy showing some pop off the bench!)
Alberto Callaspo 280 532 252
Miguel Olivo 405 633 228
Billy Butler 447 667 220
Ryan Shealy 402 612 210
Damon Hollins 417 540 123
Mark Teahen 429 547 118

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I was just looking at those numbers today...
Teahen to me's the most interesting.  Three HRs in 60ish ABs is encouraging.  Very encouraging.  He becomes VERY valuable if he hits 20 HRs this year...

by Billex Gordler on Mar 28, 2008 12:13 AM EDT   0 recs

His power is going up
The only question is by how much.  I'm predicting a rough midpoint between his 2006 and 2007 power.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 28, 2008 12:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

did smith hit two HRs today?
that probably blasted those numbers up

by royalsreview on Mar 28, 2008 12:35 AM EDT   0 recs

Those numbers include his HR's today
MLB.com updates their ST stats surprisingly quickly.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 28, 2008 12:36 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i bet we trade him
Smith that is

Teahen's "jump" still looks too small to be of much consequence to me

"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise

by DyeFan187 on Mar 28, 2008 1:58 AM EDT   0 recs

What were...
...Alex Gordon and John Buck's differences? - TL
Trust Trey and Dayton.

by timlacy on Mar 28, 2008 7:51 AM EDT   0 recs

I'm tellin you,
one day we will look back and laugh at the notion that Gordon was once considered better than Butler.

Butler is going to bust out soon - and in a big way.

I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't the best DH in the league by 2010.

by loyal2s dad on Mar 28, 2008 11:08 AM EDT   0 recs

If we're only looking at offensive production
and ability to hit the ball, then I think a lot of experts were already saying that Butler was going to be the better hitter.  I still think that as Gordon develops, his value will be greater due to the fact he is a position player.

But I definitely agree that Butler is the supperior hitter.

I'd rather be watching baseball.

by Sisquatch Kids on Mar 28, 2008 12:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gordon could win some Gold Gloves
You're right.  We do need to take defense into account somewhat.  Also, I kind of think Gordon will be the better power hitter of the two.  
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 28, 2008 12:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gordon should win a LOT of Gold Gloves
whats the over/under on that?  I'd go over, I bet he rakes at least 8 of 'em
Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.

by PhattStairs on Mar 28, 2008 2:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow!
8 gold gloves!  I'll take it!  How many of those are with the Royals?

Before you put your foot through the internet to gets me, I'm just kidding. What kind of year do you think he needs to have before we start talking about Tulowitzki kind of contract.

by KC Chris on Mar 28, 2008 3:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would think
If he hits .270/.350/.470 with 20 HR, we can start talking Tulo-type contract
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 28, 2008 3:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I was factoring in defense,
and, believe it or not, I think there is a decent chance, even accounting for defense, that Butler's career will STILL be significantly more impressive than Gordon's.

I hope I'm wrong, because if Gordon can come close to matching what I think the hitting career Butler will post, then the Royals may indeed sniff the post season multiple times in the near future.

Honestly, if he takes care of his body and stays healthy, I can see Butler as a guy whose career line might be 315/390/570 or so. As for counting stats, how about nearly 3,000 hits, with about 400 homeruns, and about 1500 RBIs sound?

Yes, I do think he could be that good, and soon.

by loyal2s dad on Mar 28, 2008 4:37 PM EDT   0 recs

I hope you're right
From what I've read, most commentators, analysts, etc. don't think he'll have .570 SLG power.  It would sure be nice.

Personally, I think it is extremely hard to project the careers (or even the next 5 years) of very young and inexperienced players like Gordon and Butler.  It's like predicting the flight path of a paper airplane.  You know the direction it starts in, but after that, it's a crapshoot.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 28, 2008 4:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Perdicting the flight path of a paper airplane
might be easier than projecting the careers of young and inexperienced players.

Case in point:

http://www.princeton.edu/~stengel/PaperPlane.html

I'd rather be watching baseball.

by Sisquatch Kids on Mar 28, 2008 9:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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