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FanGraphs Top 50 AL Prospects

4

Keep in mind it's just the AL when you're reading it. No Royals in Top 10: Montgomery #15 Moustakas #22 Hosmer #25 Duffy #50 not sure whether I missed anyone

I think this is a good deal for the Royals, though, and Moore should get credit for making his team...

66

I think this is a good deal for the Royals, though, and Moore should get credit for making his team better. . . Dayton Moore has made a lot of bad moves, but this is not one of them. He made his team better without spending significant resources to do so. Kudos to him for a nice signing.

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs on the Rick Ankiel signing.
FanPost
23

Why Using 2009 Results to Predict 2010 Does Not Work, or Yes, Yuniesky Betancourt Can Only Get Better

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs has a nice article on the perils of using the prior year's result as the baseline for projecting the next year's results, including a few encouraging words on postive...

Free Talent Alert

16

With too many outfielders and a full 40-man roster, the Rockies have designated corner outfielder Matt Murton for assignment. While no future star, Matt Murton is a nice player who can hit for average, take a walk, avoid strikeouts, hit the ball in the gaps, and play an average to slighly above average corner outfield. A right-handed hitter, he has mashed LHP (career: 306/374/483, 857 OPS) while holding his own against RHP (career: 276/340/412, 752 OPS). Only 27, he is under club control for four more years (although he may qualify for arbitration next year as a Super 2). There is not a lot of upside, but with regular playing time, he could be a league average (~2.0 WAR) player -- maybe a little more with an age 27-29 peak bump -- for near the league minimum. At the very least, he would make a very good fourth outfielder, especially for a team with two left-handed hitters starting in the corners (like say David DeJesus and Mark Teahen). And yes, a right-handed (and cheaper) Mark Teahen is a fair comparison. This would be a little move, but one that could push the Royals back in a positive direction at little cost.

Zack Greinke is about half way through the 2009 MLB season and to date he has been worth 5.5 wins....

19

Zack Greinke is about half way through the 2009 MLB season and to date he has been worth 5.5 wins. He is roughly on pace to accumulate 11 wins. As a pitcher. In the last four years, no pitcher has broken past the eight win mark. Since 2002, the first year our win values start, the highest recorded mark is Randy Johnson's 9.9 wins in 2004.... Greinke's batted balls are not significantly different from past years, but his home run rate has unsustainably dipped to just 3.3%. All in all, Greinke is missing more bats this year, but he is also throwing fewer strikes overall. Somehow he has reduced both his walks and his home runs allowed to depress his FIP to 1.98, but going forward you would expect that to be a lot closer to his 3.56 from last season. Still, with half a season banked, Greinke has a serious shot at being FanGraphs' first 10 win pitcher.

Matthew Carruth, FanGraphs
FanPost
48

Dayton Moore's Masterful Three-Year improvement of the Royals: A Series of Graphs

While the season so far has taken a troubling turn, the Royals' record has improved each season since Dayton Moore took over the helm, and, without looking, I believe they are still ahead of 2008's...

When Is A Small Sample Size No Longer Small?

7

Eric Seidman at Fangraphs has a nice article summarizing research on when sample sizes become (somewhat) reliable for hitters. The research suggests that the following stats begin to stabilize with the corresponding number of plate appearances: 50 PA: Swing % 100 PA: Contact Rate 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA 200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB 250 PA: Flyball Rate 300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB 500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate 550 PA: ISO Did not stabilize by 650 PA (the cutoff): BA, BABIP The underlying work was done by a well respected analyst who goes by the handle Pizza Cutter at the Statistically Speaking blog. His research on pitchers is here.

FanPost
93

So What is the Deal with Wins Above Replacement? Or, WAR, What is it Good For? A (Relatively) Brief Primer Using the Current Royals' Leaderboard

  This is an adaption of the current (as of 5/20/2009) Royals'  WAR leaderboard for position players  at FanGraphs:   Name Batting Fielding Replacement Positional RAR WAR Coco...

Top MLB pitchers by WAR

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  1. Zack Greinke 2.0
  2. Dan Haren 1.7
  3. Gil Meche 1.5
  4. Javier Vazquez 1.5
  5. Tim Lincecum 1.4
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