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15

Attention Aspiring Nerdlings: Some introductory sabermetric links

In an earlier post,  FretFriendly expressed some concern about the somewhat technical nature of some discussions that use sabermetric concepts, and other commenters on this post  agreed. I'm not a...

PAUL DEPODESTA BRINGS teh LOLZ!!!!111111

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omg henry blanco w/ a 82.6 mentor rating!!!1111one good one, paul

A New xBABIP Model

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Over at The Hardball Times, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix have come up with a new model for establishing xBABIP. It goes beyond just line drive rate to include speed, general location of hit, plate discipline, contact rate, park, handedness, and more. You can read the article for all the thrilling details. I wonder how it compares with the work done by our own ZeppelinDZ here and here. There's also a download of all the data they ran from the last four seasons and comparison with the Studeman's older (and still useful) LD% + .12 model. For those of you have have lives, I'll list some of the Royals 2008 "luck rates" here. Positive numbers indicate they were lucky, negative, unlucky. I guess that Callaspo, German, TPJ, and MITCH didn't make the cutoff point. Avilanche 10.73 Grudz 3.11 G-Load -.74 Butler 2.15 DDJ .45 Guillen -1.53 Teahen -3.79 Olivo 4.87 Buck -4.87 Gordon 3.73 Gathright 43.92 Not too many surprises here. Aviles shows up as lucky on every "luck neutralizer" I've seen. Gordon is a bit of a surprise, but when you realize that's 3.73%, it's not that different (and keep in mind this has little to do with power hitting). If you buy this model, then Olivo's speed doesn't explain his greater BABIP success than Buck this year -- I'm still betting that given equal playing time next year (wherever they end up), Buck has a better offensive season. This is Gathright when he's lucky? He, Aviles, and perhaps Olivo are the only ones who really stand out as exceptionally lucky this past season to me.

Royals 2008 Secondary Averages and Power/Speed Numbers

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While trying to be a good baseball stat nerd and teach myself MySQL, I have dug back into the archives for a couple of older stats created by Bill James: power/speed number and secondary average (SecA). While both stats have been largely superseded by other stats, and both face the problem [easily fixed, I believe, although I have not done so here]) of not including times caught stealing, they are both interesting ways (especially SecA, at the time) of expressing important dimensions of player skill not always reflected in more traditional counting and rate stats. The link above is to yet another Google Spreadsheet in which I've given the 2008 results for both SecA and power/speed number for the 2008 Royals for players with more than 75 ABs. The results probably aren't surprising, but interesting nonetheless. Secondary Average is supposed to reflect in a rate stat everything a player does besides batting average. The formula is (TB-H+BB+SB)/AB. Albert Pujols had a .5076 SecA this season. The Royals' all-time best single-season secondary average is .5096, by Bob Hamelin in 1994. Power/Speed Number is a combination rate/counting stat that is supposed to get at that "something" expressed in calling a player a "20-20" or "40-40" player. The formula is (2*HR*SB)/(HR+SB). As you can see, then, if a player has no home runs or no stolen bases, that player will automatically have a 0 for a P/S number. Grady Sizemore led that majors in 2008, with a power/speed number of 35.32. Hanley Ramirez was close behind with 33.97. It's not all a young man's game, though. Carlos Beltran comes in #4 (right behind Matt Holliday) with 25.96. It will come as no surprise to most of you that Beltran has three of the top four Royals Power-Speed seasons, with 31.8 in 2003, 31.7 in 2002, and 27.1 in 2001. Bo Jackson has number 3 with 28.7 in 1989, and also has #6 with 25.96 in 1988. The under-appreciated Amos Otis is #5 with 26.1 in 1978.

FanPost
67

Bunts, Beanballs, Billy Butler: The 2008 Kansas City Royals and The Office

Ah, September. All too often since 1985, this has meant the end of the Royals' season is nigh. Yet, as so many have noted, this particular September has witnessed a streak of truly Royal...

Ken Tremendous hits it big

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MIchael Schur, aka Ken Tremendous from FIre Joe Morgan who, in his spare time, plays Mose Schrute and writes for The Office, gets a big new deal. I wonder what sort of bonus he gets for each JoeChat.

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