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Cubs Sign DeJesus


The new stat-friendly team in Chicago decided that DeJesus is their best option in right field. I'm impressed. They clearly think he's a good bet to rebound from last year's less than impressive numbers. - TL PS: I put up my post, obviously, before seeing the one just below (I looked, but apparently too fast). Nevertheless, my link is to the SBNation BleedCubbieBlue page where there’s lots of partisan discussion and "analysis."


Community "Heart & Gut" Projection - Catchers (Olivo, Buck, Pena, House)

A community projection for the Royals catchers in 2009.


Attention Aspiring Nerdlings: Some introductory sabermetric links

In an earlier post,  FretFriendly expressed some concern about the somewhat technical nature of some discussions that use sabermetric concepts, and other commenters on this post  agreed. I'm not a...


Community "Heart & Gut" Projection - Second Base/Shortstop (Aviles, Callaspo, Bloomquist, Pena)

I think we've probably gotten all of the votes on the 1B/DH CH&GP, and here are the results: Billy Butller - 494 AB, .296/.354/.464, 18 HR, 83 RBI, 1 SB, 2 CS Mike Jacobs - 488 AB,...


Community "Heart & Gut" Projection - First Base/Designated Hitter (Butler, Jacobs, Shealy, Gload)

As fans usually do in the offseason, we've discussed at length how we think various players will perform in 2009.  There's been a lot of talk about statistical projection systems, age, injury, park...

wOBA Positional Averages 2008


At the request of a party who shall remain anonymous, I have constructed a spreadsheet to give pseudo-Fangraphs-style positional wOBA averages by position for 2008 MLB, AL, and NL. I still think the best general model for such averages is something like this (see my related FanShot here), but it is interesting to see how closely the empirical data from last year matches up. I've even included a silly wOBA-fied version of baseball-reference's OPS+. Since I'm guessing Fangraphs' version of wOBA will become the most frequently cited, I've used a formula that I think they are using -- that is, one that excludes reached base on error (this makes sense for them, since I assume they are using the baseball databank data, which doesn't include that information). They also use custom linear weights for each year, which I don't use here. However, Tom Tango (the creator of wOBA) notes that the weights since 1956 don't stray all that far from the generic formula. I think Fangraphs is great, and is quickly becoming the best source for sabermetric data on the internet -- free or pay. Personally, I prefer that ROE be included in wOBA, since I do think it at least partially reflects player skill. Stat Corner does so (and they also have park-adjusted wOBA*). I would also prefer that both sites includes stolen bases and caught stealings in the formula (I don't think they do -- but correct me if I'm wrong). But they have their reasons. I have a sheet ready with SB/CSs and also one with ROEs if people are interested. Update: Thanks to the coment below, I now realize that Fangraphs does include SB/CS in their wOBA figures, and have corrected the spreadsheet.


need stat help (eBABIP)

quick and dirty question...does anyone know (or know source) of the eBABIP equation?I have a link to a guy who quotes .763LD% + .265GB% + .131FB% as the 2006 version.I ran a regression on 2004-2008...

Of course I [Buzz Bissinger] asked for it by saying in Three Nights that sabermetricians don't lo...


Of course I [Buzz Bissinger] asked for it by saying in Three Nights that sabermetricians don't love the game of baseball. That set their hair on fire. So did a theory I posed (I emphasize theory) that young pitchers get hurt because they don't pitch enough in the minors. It was four paragraphs in a 7,000-word piece about Kerry Wood for Play, and Wood himself agreed with the theory. What they really hated was that one of my sources was Tony La Russa, whose performance over the past four years, including this one, makes Billy Beane look like a Little League GM." So much to love about this -- the Beane-LaRussa comparison, the notion that he was unfairly attacked, and more. My favorite is that Mr. Journalistic Responsibility neglects to mention that the "attacks" on Three Nights in August showed that he didn't even bother to do a basic Google search or consult the easily-accessible information that could have established the historical point about innings in the minor leagues once and for all. You see, Buzz, one of the requirements for something called a "theory" (as you so cleverly try to qualify it) is that it can be confirmed or disconfirmed. As I've said before, I suppose he didn't have any money left for an expensive phone call or email to Stats, Inc. or wherever after picking up LaRussa's bar tab for a night or two.

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