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44 Wins?

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Its starting to get exciting now, as the various projections, including BP's incomparable PECOTA, are hitting the 'net, leading to large scale season sims, idle speculation and a growing interest in prop betting.

Larry Mahnken at Replacement Level Yankees has ran 100 preliminary simulations of the '06 season, for example. You'll be unsurprised to see that in no single season do the Royals a) win the AL Central or even b) take the Wildcard. However, in only 100 trials, there is one season in which the Royals win only 44 games. Umm, this isn't even a very large projection -- something like a million sims or somesuch -- and to have a 44-118 season pop up as even 1% likely is a very, very, very, very bad sign.

Here's the link:

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2006/01/its-early-projection-time.html