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Tom Brady Just Wins... Until He Doesn't

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Sorry for the delay in posts. I've been battling a cold, while working on a pretty horrible paper. The overall effect has been it hasn't been very fun to look at a computer screen unless I absolutely have to... So my internet time has been cut to a debilitating 5 or 6 hours a day. I humbly apologize for the low quality of this post, hopefully I don't suddenly die, I'd hate to go out this way.

Onward:

Another leg of the Royals caravan wrapped up this weekend, with our troops invading Cardinal territory in the contested interior of Missouri. Royals "associate" Megan Stock chimes in with a post on the official blog, as does "Nebraska Community Relations Director" Ben Aken. (Could the Royals associate be this Megan Stock? Megan, lets do an interview if you see this.) Meanwhile, our own "royaldaddy" shares his thoughts from the 'van.

I can't remember an offseason with this much interest, including 2004.

Of course those Caravan stories were overshadowed by the "No Donut" news, ending the most entertaining post-May 1st reason to attend the K. Ok, maybe thats a little strong. I'm being cranky again. There's always the "lose two out of three against the Cardinals" Weekend.

Before this post gets any worse, let me bring something to your attention: earlier this weekend I chatted with BP's Marc Normandin, who pointed out that Gathright's 40% "improve rate" (which I heralded last week) isn't that great, considering that the baseline setting is a 50% improve rate. Looking closer at his projection if you add Gathright's "Collapse Rate" and his "Attrition Rate" you get a 53% percent chance he gets worse in 2007.

While we're on the subject, I read Mike Sweeney's card with sadness.

Mike Sweeney's PECOTA Projection:

25%: .250/.318/.417, 11 HRs
50%: .271/.339/.459, 13 HRs
75%: .291/.359/.499, 16 HRs
90%: .304/.372/.525, 17 HRs

So if everything goes right -- the 90% projection -- he's a solid player, but barely more. Granted, all of Sweeney's injury problems really throw off the numbers, as I think somewhere deep inside him he still has the talent of a .970 OPS guy. That being said, the power's diminishing and he's not taking pitches at all.

Give us one last great season Mike.

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Ohh, at least genius Bill Belichick can return back to his mistress. Thats the Patriots way.