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Your Mike Aviles Mega-Projection

So let's go:

Bill James .288 .322 .443 14
CHONE .280 .317 .425 11
Marcel .308 .351 .462 10
Oliver .280 .312 .436 16
ZiPS .289 .319 .433 14
PECOTA .268 .309 .409 13

Since we're dealing with rate stats here (I threw in homers just for fun) I don't have a huge problem with averaging these numbers.

And now, the mega-projection: .286/.322/.435, down from .325/.354/.480 last season. The average actually looks like a good representation of the numbers: you've got the extremely negative PECOTA and extremely positive Marcel projections counter-balancing each other, then four others that are all around the average. I guess technically the average is always reflective, but in this case, you can see it very easily.