Two weeks ago, in How the Royals Can Win the Central in Four Steps I noted that any scenario in which the Royals snuck in and won the Division was predicated on nobody in the Central being really really good, especially Cleveland, the favorite.
The Indians may not win the Division, but they're the one team that could win 95 games. I can't see a scenario whereupon the Royals get to that level. Not yet. So simply put, the Indians can't have a great year. The Central needs to stay manageable, like it was last year, when two third-place teams (American League scale) battled it out for the division "crown". Considering the Royals will play 54 games against the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins, it would help if this trio could be as weak as possible, but mainly, it's all about having everyone under 90 wins. Odds of this happening: 60%.
Well, so far so good on that count. Thanks in part to the Tribe's slow start, according to BP's PECOTA-influenced playoff odds report, in the current simulations, everyone's average wins in the division are at 83 wins or lower. In the AL East meanwhile, although the three-headed monster is off to a collective "meh" start, they're all still spitting out tons of 90+ win seasons.
There's something like 1400 innings of baseball left this season, so needless to say, things can and will change. So far however, the season is breaking well for the Royals. (Save for a possibly spry club in Detroit... everyone in the division would benefit from a Tiger slow-start + teardown.)
Your pitching matchup is Fausto Carmona v. Zack Greinke.