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Looking Back At 2010 Preseason Royals Projections

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Before the season began, I ran a series looking at how various Royals would do this season. Well it is time to go back see how the projection systems and Royals Review voting did at projecting how a few players did in 2010. I added a small value to the projection and the RR voting
(1 = completely correct, 0 = dead wrong) assessment to see how each did in the end.

Will Mitch Maier do better than the CHONE projection of: 137 games, 485 PA, 116 hits, 6 HRs, 0.262/0.326/0.368, .310 wOBA?

53% Better
20% Same
25% Worse

Actual: 117 games, 421PA, 98 hits, 5 HRs, 0.263/0.333/.375, 0.314wOBA

Assessment of Projection: Looks like the rate stats were projected almost dead on, with the playing time projection a little high. (0.75)
Assessment of RoyalsReview voting: Most people expected a little more out of Mitch. (0)


Will Zack Greinke preform better than CHONE's projection of: 12-9, 3.26 ERA, 2.98 FIPs, 188 Ks, 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9?

81% Better
15% Same
2% Worse

Actual: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 3.34 FIPS, 181 Ks, 7.40 K/9, 2.25 BB/9

Assessment of Projection: The projection expected Zack to perform a little better, but was still pretty close. (.75)
Assessment of RoyalsReview voting: We expected Cy Young Zack to be back and it just didn't happen. (0)

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How will Jason Kendall do compared to his CHONE projection of: 132 games, 518 PA, 2 HR, 0.245/0.315/0.306, 0.284 wOBA, 0.9 WAR?

25% Better
40% Same
34% Worse

Actual: 118 games, 490 PA, 0 HR, .256/.318/.297, 0.278 wOBA, 0.6 WAR

Assessment of Projection: The projection was really close. (1)
Assessment of RoyalsReview voting: This was probably the best assessment we had of a player. (1)

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Will Luke do better than his 2010 CHONE projection of: 7-11, 4.81 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 28 games, 161 innings, 108 Ks?

67% Better
20% Same
11% Worse

6-6, 4.81 ERA, 3.93 FIPS, 17 games, 103 innings,

Assessment of Projection: The projection was close to being dead on ERA and FIPs, but Lukes injury derailed the counting stats.(0.5)
Assessment of RoyalsReview voting: We expected more out of Luke and it just didn't happen.(0.5)

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Will Rick Ankiel do better than the CHONE projection of: 130 games, 473 PA, 20 HRs, 0.242/0.298/0.436, 0.318 wOBA?


41% Better
36% Same
21% Worse


Actual 74 games, 240 PA, 6 HRs, 0.232/0.312/0441 0.314

Assessment of Projection: Another player where the rate stats were really close, but counting stats were low due to injury. (0.5)
Assessment of RoyalsReview voting: Most people expected more out of Rick which didn't happen. (0.5)

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Will Gil Meche's 2010 stats be better or worse than: 8-11 record, 4.47 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 28 GS, 165 Innings, 125 Ks?

77% Better
16% Same
5% Worse

Actual: 0-5, 5.69 ERA, 5.59 FIPS, 9 GS, 61.2 innings, 41 Ks

Assessment of Projection: Projection was way off. It will be interesting to see how Gil projects into the pen next year.(0)
Assessment of RoyalsReview voting: I can't believe more people didn't pick worse with the arm problems he had.(0)

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Will Alex do better, same or worse than the line of: 121 games, 423 AB, 14 HR .267/.353/.435?

70% Better
22% About the Same
7% Worse

Actual: 74 games, 281 PA, 8 HRs, 0.215/0.315/0.355

Assessment of Projection: The projection came out on the high side with Alex again under performing. (0)
Assessment of RoyalsReview voting: We again had to much faith in one of our players.(0)


Final:
Projection system: 3.5 out of 7

Royals Review: 2 out of 7