Part 1 covered the #1 ranked teams from the year 2001-2005. Now we will look at the past 5 years. In some ways I find this more interesting because I think prospect evaluation has gotten somewhat better due to better minor league information and also more competition in the prospect ranking world. I dropped the salary information because most of these players are still making close to the minimum. I also have included the #2 and #3 ranked teams just to give us a little more information to draw from.
| 2006 D-Backs #1 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Stephen Drew |
1.0 |
-0.4 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
5.1 |
| 2 Conor Jackson |
0.8 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
-1.0 |
0.3 |
| 3 Carlos Quentin |
1.2 |
0.0 |
4.7 |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
| 4 Carlos Gonazalez |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
6.0 |
| 5 Dustin Nippert |
-0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
-0.3 |
| 6 Miguel Montero |
0 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
3.0 |
1.9 |
| 7 Garrett Mock |
0 |
0 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
-0.2 |
| 8 Matt Tora |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 9 Micah Owings |
0 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
| 10 Sergio Santos |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.0 |
| Total |
2.7 |
2.9 |
13.3 |
7.3 |
13.6 |
The 2006 D-Backs were ranked #1 with Stephen Drew (#5 overall), Conor Jackson (#17), Carlos Quentin (#20), Carlos Gonzalez (#32), and Dustin Nippert (#67). The 2007 D-Backs went to the NLCS but, as you can see, they only 2.9 WAR from their Top 10. We will see Arizona ranked highly again in 2007 with a better crop of talent.
| 2006 Dodgers #2 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Chad Bilingsley |
0.6 |
2.0 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
4.6 |
| 2 Andy LaRoche |
0 |
0.3 |
-1.0 |
2.6 |
-0.7 |
| 3 Joel Guzman |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 4 Russell Martin |
2.7 |
5.8 |
4.6 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
| 5 Jonathan Broxton |
1.4 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
1.2 |
| 6 Scott Elbert |
0 |
0 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
| 7 Blake DeWitt |
0 |
0 |
1.7 |
-0.2 |
0.8 |
| 8 Matt Kemp |
-0.4 |
1.7 |
3.2 |
5.0 |
0.3 |
| 9 Tony Abreu |
0 |
0.7 |
0 |
0.1 |
-0.6 |
| 10 Chin-lung Hu |
0 |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
| Total |
4.3 |
12.4 |
14.4 |
15.7 |
7.4 |
The 2006 Dodgers Top 10 featured Chad Billingsley (#7 Overall), Andy LaRoche (#19), Joel Guzman (#26), Russell Martin (#42), Jonathan Broxton (#63), Scott Elbert (#55), Blake Dewitt (#82), and Matt Kemp (#96). So the Dodgers had 8 Top 100 Prospects--a very deep system. Kemp, Billingsley, Martin and Broxton all have had good to very good seasons. The 06 Dodgers won the Wild Card and lost in the Divison Series. The '07 Dodgers finished 4th despite winning 82 games. The 08 Dodgers won the division by winning 84 games. And the '09 Dodgers wond the division with 95 wins. The '08 and '09 teams both lost in the NLCS.
| 2006 Marlins #3 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Jeremy Hermidia |
-0.6 |
2.7 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
-0.6 |
| 2 Soctt Olsen |
2.3 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 3 Josh Johnson |
2.5 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
5.6 |
6.3 |
| 4 Chris Volstad |
0 |
0 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
1.8 |
| 5 Aaron Thompson |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 6 Robert Andino |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
-0.1 |
0.5 |
| 7 Taylor Tankersley |
0.3 |
0.2 |
-0.7 |
0 |
-0.7 |
| 8 Josh Willingham |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
| 9 Kris Harvey |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 10 Ryan Tucker |
0 |
0 |
-0.4 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
6.6 |
5.8 |
6.9 |
8.9 |
10.7 |
The 2006 Marlins Top 10 featured Jeremy Hermidia (#4 overall), Scott Olsen (#34), Josh Johnson (#80), and Chris Volstad (#97). The failure of Jeremy Hermidia is one of the most puzzling prospect failures in recent years-- I really thought he was going to be a complete player. Josh Johnson has turned into one the NL's top pitchers. Josh Willingham has been a steady somewhat underrated contributor (now with the Nats). The Marlins won 78, 71, 84, 87 and 80 games in the years since their #3 ranking.
| 2007 Rays #1 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Delmon Young |
0.1 |
-0.7 |
-1.1 |
2.1 |
| 2 Evan Longoria |
0 |
5.4 |
7.3 |
6.9 |
| 3 Reid Brignac |
0 |
-0.4 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
| 4 Jeff Niemann |
0 |
0.0 |
3.0 |
1.2 |
| 5 Jake McGee |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.1 |
| 6 Elijah Dukes |
0 |
-0.2 |
2.9 |
-0.3 |
| 7 Wade Davis |
0 |
0 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
| 8 Matt Walker |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 9 Jeremy Hellickson |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
| 10 Joel Guzman |
-0.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
-0.1 |
4.1 |
13.3 |
12.6 |
The 2007 Rays featured Delmon Young (#3 overall), Evan Longoria (#7), Reid Brignac (#17), Jeff Niemann (#35), Jake McGee (#37), Elijah Dukes (#79), and Wade Davis (#97). This was the first of what we will see as many years of a highly touted Rays farm system. Other than Longoria, these actual players haven't made a huge contribution to the Rays--but of course there was the Delmon Young trade that helped them out so much. The Rays won 66 games in 2007 but then won 97 games in 2008 and made it to the World Series, they won 84 games in 2009 and 96 games this year, losing to the Rangers in the ALDS.
| 2007 Rockies #2 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Troy Tulowitzki |
5.4 |
0.9 |
5.7 |
6.4 |
| 2 Franklin Morales |
0.9 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
| 3 Jason Hirsch |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
0 |
0 |
| 4 Dexter Fowler |
0 |
-0.3 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
| 5 Ian Stewart |
0.2 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
| 6 Ubaldo Jimenez |
1.1 |
4.3 |
5.7 |
6.3 |
| 7Greg Reynolds |
0 |
-0.5 |
0 |
0 |
| 8 Chris Ianetta |
0.4 |
3.6 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
| 9Jeff Baker |
-0.4 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
| 10 Chaz Roe |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
8.5 |
9.8 |
16.6 |
17.2 |
The 2007 Rockies Top 10 featured Troy Tulowitzki (#15 overall), Franklin Morales (#30), Jason Hirsh (#42), Dexter Fowler (#48), Ian Stewart (#46), Ubaldo Jimenez (#84), Greg Reynolds (#76), Chris Ianetta (#92). Another very deep system. Tulo and Ubaldo were obviously the big producers here. The 07 Rockies got 8.5 WAR that first year and propelled them to 90 wins and to the World Series where they lost. The 08 Rox won only 74 games before bouncing back in 09 with 92 wins--getting 16.6 WAR from their Top 10. They increased that to 17.2 this year but the team won 83 games and missed the postseason.
| 2007 D-Backs #3 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Justin Upton |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
4.6 |
3.1 |
| 2 Chris Young |
1.0 |
2.2 |
0.3 |
4.3 |
| 3 Carlos Gonzalez |
0 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
6.0 |
| 4 Alberto Callaspo |
-0.8 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
| 5 Miguel Montero |
0.0 |
0.7 |
3.0 |
1.9 |
| 6 Micah Owings |
1.7 |
1.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
| 7 Mark Reynolds |
1.7 |
1.4 |
3.6 |
2.4 |
| 8 Dustin Nippert |
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
-0.3 |
| 9 Tony Pena |
0.7 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
| 10 Brett Anderson |
0 |
0 |
3.7 |
2.6 |
| Total |
4.1 |
9.5 |
21.1 |
21.5 |
The 2007 D-Backs Top 10 had Justin Upton (#9 overall), Chris Young (#12), Carlos Gonzalez (#18), Alberto Callaspo (#82), Miguel Montero (#63), and Micah Owings (#98). When you think about the potential of what the Royals Top 3 can do (Moose, Hoz, Myers) I think the best case scenario would be what Upton, Young and Gonzalez did in 2010.
| 2008 Rays #1 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Evan Longoria |
5.4 |
7.3 |
6.9 |
| 2 David Price |
0.2 |
1.5 |
4.3 |
| 3 Jake McGee |
0 |
0 |
0.1 |
| 4 Wade Davis |
0 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
| 5 Reid Brignac |
-0.4 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
| 6 Desmond Jennings |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
| 7 Jeff Niemann |
0.0 |
3.0 |
1.2 |
| 8 Jeremy Hellickson |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
| 9 Ryan Royster |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 10 Chris Mason |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
4.8 |
14.1 |
15.0 |
The 2008 Rays Top Ten featured Evan Longoria (#2 overall), David Price (#10), Jake McGee (#15), Wade Davis (#17), Reid Brignac (#39), Desmond Jennings (#59), and Jeff Niemann (#99). Jeremy Hellickson, now one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, was on the Top Ten list but didn't make the Top 100. This is one of the very best groups of prospects we've seen in recent memory and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rival Cleveland's grouping of talent from 2003. Only this time, I think almost all the players will stay their team for the first 5 or 6 years. Tampa had 4 of the top 17, 5 of the top 40, and 6 of the top 60. I actually think the Royals could come close to doing something like that this year. Tampa made their amazing turnaround in 2008--there was no slow transition--it was just 66 wins in 2007 and BOOM! 97 wins in 2008. They slid back to 84 wins in 2009 before bouncing back to 96 wins in 2010.
| 2008 Red Sox #2 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Clay Buchholz |
0.9 |
1.2 |
3.7 |
| 2 Jacoby Ellsbury |
3.9 |
2.7 |
-0.2 |
| 3 Lars Anderson |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 4 Justin Masterson |
0.8 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
| 5 Jed Lowrie |
1.9 |
-0.2 |
1.8 |
| 6 Ryan Kalish |
0 |
0 |
0.6 |
| 7 Mike Bowden |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| 8 Nick Hagadone |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 9 Oscar Tejeda |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 10 Josh Reddick |
0 |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
| Total |
7.7 |
5.5 |
8.9 |
Boston ranked #2 in the farm system rankings in 2008. Their Top Ten featured: Clay Buchholz (#4 overall), Jacoby Ells bury (#13), Lars Anderson (#40), Justin Masterson (#64), Jed Lowrie (#73), Ryan Kalish (#96), and Mike Bowden (#94). This system had a ton of depth but hasn't (yet) had great results. Their first year was pretty fruitful. Of course, the Red Sox supplement their prospects with free agents and trades. The Sox won 95 games in 08 and 09 before winning "just" 89 games last year.
| 2008 Reds #3 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Jay Bruce |
0.8 |
1.7 |
5.3 |
| 2 Homer Bailey |
-0.3 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
| 3 Joey Votto |
4.0 |
4.6 |
7.4 |
| 4 Johnny Cueto |
1.2 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
| 5 Drew Stubbs |
0 |
1.4 |
3.2 |
| 6 Devin Mesoraco |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 7Todd Frazier |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 8Juan Francisco |
0 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
| 9 Josh Roenicke |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
| 10 Matt Maloney |
0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Total |
5.8 |
11.3 |
20.8 |
The 2008 Red Top Ten featured Jay Bruce (#1 overall), Homer Bailey (#9), Joey Votto (#44), Johnny Cueto (#34), and Drew Stubbs (#100). I have to be honest, before I started this, I didn't think of the Reds when I thought of great recent farm systems. But the contribution of their farm system pushed them in to the playoffs in 2010 with almost 21 WAR. The Reds had been meddling around 70-some wins for a long time (winning 94 games in 2008 and 78 in 2009). But they busted out for 91 wins this year. The top 5 on this list really produced and the Reds should be contenders for the NL Central crown for the next few years.
| 2009 Rangers #1 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Neftali Feliz |
1.1 |
1.8 |
| 2 Derek Holland |
1.1 |
0.8 |
| 3 Justin Smoak |
0 |
0.1 |
| 4 Elvis Andrus |
3.1 |
1.5 |
| 5 Martin Perez |
0 |
0 |
| 6Taylor Teagarden |
0.5 |
0.0 |
| 7Engel Beltre |
0 |
0 |
| 8 Michael Main |
0 |
0 |
| 9 Julio Borbon |
0.6 |
1.3 |
| 10 Max Ramirez |
0 |
0.2 |
| Total |
6.4 |
5.7 |
The 2009 Rangers had the best farm system as determined by Baseball America. Their Top Ten featured: Neftali Feliz (#10), Derek Holland (#31), Justin Smoak (#23), Elvis Andrus (#37), Martin Perez (#86) ,Taylor Teagarden (#73) and Max Ramirez (#84). The Top 10 contribution looks modest until you consider that Smoak brought them Cliff Lee. They won 87 games last year before winning 90 this year and are a win away from the World Series. The Rangers have had to cut payroll but may become big spenders again. The Rangers have a strong core and should be competitive in the AL West for a long time.
| 2009 Marlins #2 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Cameron Maybin |
0.8 |
0.4 |
| 2 Mike Stanton |
0 |
2.7 |
| 3 Logan Morrison |
0 |
1.1 |
| 4 Sean West |
1.0 |
0.0 |
| 5 Ryan Tucker |
0 |
0 |
| 6 Matt Dominguez |
0 |
0 |
| 7 Kyle Skipworth |
0 |
0 |
| 8 Gaby Sanchez |
0.1 |
2.4 |
| 9 Chris Coghlan |
2.7 |
0.8 |
| 10 Jose Ceda |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
4.6 |
7.4 |
a
The 2009 Marlins Top Ten featured Cameron Maybin (#8 overall), Mike Stanton (#16), Logan Morrison (#18), Sean West (#96), Matt Dominguez (#64), and Kyle Skipworth (#85). The Marlins had (and have) a very good collection of young hitting. This list has some interesting names but isn't overly impressive as a group (especially if Maybin continues to flounder in the big leagues). They won 87 games in 2009 and 80 games in 2010.
| 2009 A's #3 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1 Brett Anderson |
3.7 |
2.6 |
| 2 Trevor Cahill |
0.6 |
2.2 |
| 3 Michale Ynoa |
0 |
0 |
| 4 Aaron Cunningham |
-0.5 |
0.7 |
| 5 Adrian Cardenas |
0 |
0 |
| 6 Chris Carter |
0 |
-0.6 |
| 7 Gio Gonzalez |
1.1 |
3.2 |
| 8 Vince Mazzaro |
0.7 |
0.0 |
| 9 Jemile Weeks |
0 |
0 |
| 10 James Simmons |
0 |
0 |
| Total |
5.6 |
8.1 |
adThe 2009 A's Top Ten featured Brett Anderson (#7 overall), Trevor Cahill (#11), Michael Ynoa (#54), Aaron Cunningham (#55), Adrian Cardenas (#74), Chris Carter (#76), and Gio Gonzalez (#97). The A's were headed by a lot of pitching which is always difficult to predict. Anderson, Cahill, and Gonzalez have shown some flashes. The 2009 A's won 75 games and the 2010 team won 81. They face a tough road with Texas, the Angels and the Mariners in the same division.
| 2010 Rays #1 |
2010 |
| 1 Desmond Jennings |
0.0 |
| 2 Jeremy Hellickson |
0.5 |
| 3 Wade Davis |
0.8 |
| 4 Matt Moore |
0 |
| 5 Reid Brignac |
1.1 |
| 6 Tim Beckham |
0 |
| 7 Alex Colome |
0 |
| 8 Jake McGee |
0.1 |
| 9 Alex Torres |
0 |
| 10 Nick Barnese |
0 |
|
Total |
2.5 |
The 2010 Rays were back on top the rankings. Their Top Ten featured: Desmond Jennings (#6 overall), Jeremy Hellickson (#18), Wade Davis (#34), Matt Moore (#35), Reid Brignac (#54), Tim Beckham (#67) and Alex Colome (#68). There isn't much more to write about the Rays that I didn't say above--other than to point to the importance of having the system bounce back with so much talent after graduating a lot of prospect in 08/09.
| 2010 Rangers #2 |
2010 |
| 1 Neftali Feliz |
1.8 |
| 2 Justin Smoak |
0.1 |
| 3 Martin Perez |
0 |
| 4Tanner Scheppers |
0 |
| 5 Jurickson Profar |
0 |
| 6 Kasey Kiker |
0 |
| 7 Robbie Ross |
0 |
| 8 Mitch Moreland |
0 |
| 9 Danny Gutierez |
0 |
| 10 WIlmer Font |
0 |
| Total |
1.9 |
Again we have the Rangers. Their Top 10 featured Neftali Felix (#9 overall), Justin Smoak (#13), Martin Perez (#17), and Tanner Scheppers (#42). Again, I just wrote about the Rangers. They still have a lot of talent coming up the pipe. Much of it is still a couple of years away.
| 2010 Indians #3 |
2010 |
| 1 Carlos Santana |
2.0 |
| 2 Lonnie Chisenhall |
0 |
| 3 Nick Hagadone |
0 |
| 4 Jason Knapp |
0 |
| 5 Michael Brantley |
-0.7 |
| 6 Nick Weglarz |
0 |
| 7 Hector Rondon |
0 |
| 8 Carlos Carrasco |
0.6 |
| 9 Alex White |
0 |
| 10 Jason Kipnis |
0 |
|
Total |
1.9 |
The 2010 Indians featured: Carlos Santana (#10 overall), Lonnie Chisenhall (#31), Nick Hagadone (#44), and Jason Knapp ((#64). I look at this top 10 and all I can think is "Carlos Santana for Casey Blake!?" To be brutally honest, to trade CC Sabbathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez in the past couple of years and not have more talent at the big league and minor league levels is disappointing. The 2010 Indians won 69 games.
Well, that was a lot of information. I'll let you all chew on that for awhile and then I'll be back next week with my conclusion. I'll try to synthesize some of this and figure what we can and can't expect from our farm system in the coming years.