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The Aftermath of the Greinke Trade: The Starters

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The loss of Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt and the gain of Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain put the Royals in pretty dire straits for not losing over 100 games in 2011. Over the past two season's, Zack has 45% of the WAR generated from the pitching staff.

 

2009

Zack Greinke = 9.4 WAR

Rest of Staff = 11.0 WAR

 

2010

Zack Greinke = 5.2 WAR

Rest of Staff = 6.4 WAR

 

Correction - these values are low by about 2 WAR, I am looking into finding out where I had a math error -Jeff

The worst part about losing Zack's ~6 wins is that someone else is going to have to throw 200 innings for the Royals. Using ZIPS projections, here is the expected WAR for the following Royal starters if they had to throw 200 innings:


Name, ERA, WAR

Hochevar, 4.67, 0.4

Davies, 4.80, 0.1

Mazzaro, 4.87, 0.0

Duffy, 5.00 -0.3

O'Sullivan, 5.20, -0.7

Teaford, 6.41, -3.0


Our top starter looks to contribute half a win. I think the team will be lucky to get replacement level production from all the starters over the entire season. This group could be historically bad. With the rest of the team, bullpen and position players, contributing at the same level as 2010, the loss of production from just the starting pitchers could put the Royals at 105 losses for the 2011 season.