If I were to lay out my blueprints for a great farm system, I would want some top notch bats at the top. Players who can get on base and have power. I would want to make sure their strikeouts aren't a big problem in the minors--as that can spell trouble at the big league level. Those top level hitting prospects are about the most valuable thing you can have in a farm system. For pitching, I would want depth--lots of it. The average return on pitching prospects has been about the same between pitchers ranked in the Top 10 and others ranked 11-50. I would want pitchers with good control and starters who know how to use a change-up. Of course, I would want some young international guys--both pitchers and position players with incredible tools/velocity. There would also be some bounce back candidates who are looking to improve after some disappointing years. The Royals have all those things.
2010 was a good year for the Royals Farm System. The Royals had some good luck/health and some players break out. It was also a bounce back from a bad 2009. A year ago, the Royals had a lot of talent on the farm, it just hadn't produced up to expectations.
The Royals farm system has received some attention this off-season. It has become cliche to talk about all the prospects the Royals have. Of course, being attention-starved and beaten down Royals fans, we have struggled with how to handle this news. Some of us are excited at this twinkle of light on the horizon. Others are still cynical after the list of failures in the distant and recent past. I can't tell you who is right. I did a little series earlier in the off-season about what we can (and can't) expect from a top farm system--but that still leaves a broad range of possibilities in the future. To the cynics, I would say that, with all the praise heaped on the Royals prospects, not one bit of it is undeserved. You can look at the Royals prospects a lot of different ways: the Top 3, Top 5, Top 10, Top 30. (Fangraphs did an interesting take here, but I find it problematic for a few reasons). I have never seen a farm system with this combination of impact and depth. To the excited, I would say that we are guaranteed nothing in the future. I can tell you we have a historically good farm system. I can't tell you what it will translate to. I feel reasonably certain that we will, in coming years, see more exciting baseball--with over .500 records--but that is still a long way off from division titles. There is also the danger that some of these prospects might succeed--after they are traded away.
Here is the straight up prospect list. It ended up being 65 names--after trades. I added Greg Holland, who I mistakenly thought had used up his prospect eligibility. Also, I inserted Nathan Adcock--our Rule V pick.
| Rank | Name |
| 1 | Wil Myers-C/OF |
| 2 | Eric Hosmer-1B |
| 3 | Mike Moustakas--3B |
| 4 | Mike Montgomery--LHP |
| 5 | John Lamb--LHP |
| 6 | Chris Dwyer--LHP |
| 7 | Dan Duffy--LHP |
| 8 | Jake Odorizzi--RHP |
| 9 | Christian Colon--SS/2B |
| 10 | Aaron Crow--RHP |
| 11 | Cheslor Cuthbert--3B |
| 12 | Brett Eibner--CF |
| 13 | Johnny Giavotella--2B |
| 14 | David Lough--OF |
| 15 | Tim Collins--LHP |
| 16 |
Jeremy Jeffress--RHP |
| 17 | Tim Melville--RHP |
| 18 | Robinson Yambati--RHP |
| 19 | Yordano Ventura--RHP |
| 20 | Salvador Perez--C |
| 21 | Derrick Robinson--CF |
| 22 | Louis Coleman--RHP |
| 23 | Jason Adam--RHP |
| 24 | Will Smith--LHP |
| 25 | Paulo Orlando--CF |
| 26 | Kevin Chapman--LHP |
| 27 | Everett Teaford--LHP |
| 28 | Tyler Sample--RHP |
| 29 | Buddy Baumann--LHP |
| 30 | Noel Arguelles--LHP |
| 31 | Jeff Bianchi--SS |
| 32 | Crawford Simmons--LHP |
| 33 | Clint Robinson--1B |
| 34 | Jarrod Dyson--CF |
| 35 | Patrick Keating--RHP |
| 36 | Greg Holland--RHP |
| 37 | Manuel Pina--C |
| 38 | Lucas May--C |
| 39 | Blaine Hardy--LHP |
| 40 | Michael Antonio--SS |
| 41 | Kelvin Herrera--RHP |
| 42 | Humberto Arteaga--SS |
| 43 | Justin Marks--LHP |
| 44 | Elisaul Pimentel--RHP |
| 45 | Jorge Bonifacio--CF |
| 46 | Lance Zawadzki--SS |
| 47 | Rey Navarro--SS |
| 48 | Nathan Adcock--RHP |
| 49 | Edgar Osuna--LHP |
| 50 | Jose Bonilla--C |
| 51 | Henry Barrera--RHP |
| 52 | Greg BIllo--RHP |
| 53 | Kevin Pucetas--RHP |
| 54 | Yowil Espinal--2B |
| 55 | Paul Carlixte--SS |
| 56 | Keaton Hayenga--RHP |
| 57 | Shin Jo-Ho--C |
| 58 | Wilian Avinazar--RHP |
| 59 | Mike Mariot--RHP |
| 60 | Brandon Sisk--LHP |
| 61 | Justin Trapp--SS |
| 62 | Leonel Santiago--RHP |
| 63 |
Murray Watts--1B |
| 64 | Brain Fletcher--OF |
| 65 | Pat White--OF |
Below is the prospect list sorted by position. The Royals have depth at lots of places--C, SS, pitching. They are short in the outfield--especially corner OF, but that changes if Myers goes to RF. They have a bunch of CF prospects but none of them are good enough that I'm comfortable penciling them into the future OF. They also lack depth at the corner infield (although they do have quality with Hoz and Moose)
| Position | Name |
| Catcher | 1. Wil Myers |
| 20. Salvador Perez | |
| 37. Manuel Pina | |
| 38. Lucas May | |
| 50. Jose Bonilla | |
| 57. Shin Jo-Ho | |
| 1st Base | 2. Eric Hosmer |
| 33. Clint Robinson | |
| 63. Murray Watts | |
| 2nd Base | 9. Christian Colon |
| 13. Johnny Giavotella | |
| 54. Yowil Espinal | |
| Shortstop | 31. Jeff Bianchi |
| 40. Michael Antonio | |
| 42. Humberto Arteaga | |
| 46. Lance Zawadzki | |
| 47. Rey Navarro | |
| 55. Paul Carlixte | |
|
61. Justin Trapp |
|
| 3rd Base | 3. Mike Moustakas |
| 11. Chelsor Cuthbert | |
| LF/RF |
64. Brian Fletcher |
| CF | 12. Brett Eibner |
| 14. David Lough | |
| 21. Derrick Robinson | |
| 25. Paulo Orlando | |
| 34. Jarrod Dyson | |
| 45. Jorge Bonifacio | |
| 65. Pat White | |
| RHSP |
8. Jake Odorizzi |
| 10. Aaron Crow | |
| 17. Tim Melville | |
| 18. Robinson Yambati | |
| 19. Yordano Ventura | |
| 23. Jason Adam | |
| 28. Tyler Sample |
|
| 41. Kelvin Herrera | |
| 44. Elisaul Pimentel | |
| 48. Nathan Adcock | |
| 52. Greg BIllo | |
| 53. Kevin Pucetas | |
| 56. Keaton Hayenga | |
| 58. Wilian Avinazar | |
| 59. Mike Mariot | |
| 62. Leonel Santiago | |
| RHRP | 16. Jeremy Jeffress |
| 22. Louis Coleman | |
| 35. Patrick Keating | |
| 36. Greg Holland | |
| 51. Henry Barrera | |
| LHSP | 4. Mike Montgomery |
| 5. John Lamb | |
| 6. Chris Dwyer | |
| 7. Dan Duffy | |
| 24. Will Smith | |
| 27. Everett Teaford | |
| 29. Buddy Baumann | |
| 30. Noel Arguelles | |
| 32. Crawford Simmons | |
| 43. Justin Marks | |
| 49. Edgar Osuna | |
| LHRP | 15. Tim Collins |
| 26. Kevin Chapman | |
| 39. Blaine Hardy | |
| 60. Brandon Sisk |
Next, I've listed the Royals prospects by age, starting with the youngest at the top. I found this to be a really interesting exercise--you might see two players close in age and yet one is a couple levels ahead of another. There is almost a 10 year gap from youngest to oldest.
| Rank | Name | Birthday |
| 42. | Humberto Arteaga--SS | 1/94 |
| 45. | Jorge Bonifacio--CF | 6/93 |
| 11. | Cheslor Cuthbert--3B | 11/92 |
| 55. | Paul Carlixte | 2/92 |
| 40. | Michael Antonio--SS | 10/91 |
| 57. | Shin Jo-Ho--C | 10/91 |
| 23. | Jason Adam--RHP | 8/91 |
| 19. | Yordano Ventura--RHP | 6/91 |
| 32. | Crawford Simmons--LHP | 6/91 |
| 54. | Yowil Espinal--2B | 4/91 |
| 18. | Robinson Yambati--RHP | 1/91 |
| 1. | Wil Myers--C/OF | 12/90 |
| 61. | J. Trapp--SS | 10/90 |
| 52. | Greg Billo--RHP | 7/90 |
| 5. | John Lamb--LHP | 7/90 |
| 20. | Sal Perez--C | 5/90 |
| 8. | Jake Odorizzi--RHP | 3/90 |
| 30. | Noel Arguelles--LHP | 1/90 |
| 41. | Kelvin Herrera--RHP | 12/89 |
| 47. | Rey Navarro--SS | 12/89 |
| 62. | Leonel Santiago--RHP | 12/89 |
| 2. | Eric Hosmer--1B | 10/89 |
| 17. | Tim Melville--RHP | 10/89 |
| 15. | Tim Collins--LHP | 8/89 |
| 24. | Will Smith--LHP | 7/89 |
| 4. | Mike Montgomery--LHP | 7/89 |
| 28. | Tyler Sample--RHP | 6/89 |
| 9. | Christian Colon--SS/2B | 5/89 |
| 58. | Wilian Avinazar--RHP | 2/89 |
| 7. | Dan Duffy--LHP | 12/88 |
| 59. | Mike Mariot--RHP | 10/88 |
| 64. | Brian Fletcher--OF | 10/88 |
| 12. | Brett Eibner--CF | 10/88 |
| 3. | Mike Moustakas--3B | 9/88 |
| 50. | Jose Bonilla--C | 8/88 |
| 44. | Elisaul Pimentel--RHP | 7/88 |
| 56. | Keaton Hayenga--RHP | 7/88 |
| 26. | Kevin Chapman--LHP | 2/88 |
| 48, | Nathan Adcock--RHP | 2/88 |
| 43. | Justin Marks--LHP | 1/88 |
| 6. | Chris Dwyer--LHP | 1/88 |
| 29. | Buddy Baumann--LHP | 12/87 |
| 49. | Edgar Osuna--LHP | 11/87 |
| 63. | Murray Watts--1B | 10/87 |
| 16. | Jeremy Jeffress--RHP | 9/87 |
| 21. | Derrick Robinson--CF | 9/87 |
| 13. | Johnny Giavotella--2B | 7/87 |
| 35. | Patrick Keating--RHP | 6/87 |
| 37. | Manuel Pina--C | 6/87 |
| 39. | Blaine Hardy--LHP | 3/87 |
| 10. | Aaron Crow--RHP | 11/86 |
| 31. | Jeff Bianchi--SS | 10/86 |
| 22. | Louis Coleman--RHP | 4/86 |
| 65. | Pat White--CF | 2/86 |
| 14. | David Lough--CF | 1/86 |
| 51. | Henry Barrera--RHP | 11/85 |
| 36. | Greg Holland--RHP | 11/85 |
| 25. | Paulo Orlando--CF | 11/85 |
| 60. | Brandon Sisk--LHP | 7/85 |
| 27. | Everett Teaford--LHP | 5/85 |
| 46. | Lance Zawakzki--SS | 5/85 |
| 33. | Clint Robinson--1B | 2/85 |
| 53. | Kevin Pucetas--RHP | 12/84 |
| 38. | Lucas May--C | 10/84 |
| 34. | Jarrod Dyson--CF | 8/84 |
This is my best guess as to where each player will start 2011. I will probably be off on several of there. The nice thing is there is so much depth that prospects have to be carefully placed to insure playing time.
| Majors | 16. Jeremy Jeffress--RHP |
| 22. Louis Coleman--RHP | |
| 36. Greg Holland--RHP |
|
| 38. Lucas May--C |
|
| AAA | 3. Mike Moustakas--3B |
| 7. Dan Duffy--LHP | |
| 13. Johnny Giavotella-2B | |
| 14. David Lough--OF | |
| 15. Tim Collins--LHP |
|
| 27. Everett Teaford--LHP | |
| 31. Jeff Bianchi--SS | |
| 33. Clint Robinson--1B | |
| 34. Jarrod Dyson--CF | |
| 37. Manuel Pina--C | |
| 46. Lance Zawadski--SS |
|
| 49. Nathan Adcock--RHP | |
| 50. Edgar Osuna--LHP | |
| 53. Kevin Pucetas--RHP | |
| AA | 2. Eric Hosmer--1B |
| 4. Mike Montgomery--LHP | |
| 5. John Lamb--LHP | |
| 6. Chris Dwyer--LHP | |
| 9. Christian Colon--2B/SS | |
| 10 Aaron Crow--RHP | |
| 20. Sal Perez--C |
|
| 21. Derrick Robinson--CF | |
| 24. Will Smith--LHP | |
| 25. Paulo Orlando--OF | |
| 26. Kevin Chapman--LHP | |
| 29. Buddy Baumann--LHP | |
| 35. Patrick Keating--RHP | |
| 39. Blaine Hardy--LHP | |
| 47. Rey Navarro--2B/SS | |
| 51. Henry Barrera--RHP | |
| 60. Brandon Sisk--LHP | |
| High-A | 1. Wil Myers--C/OF |
| 8. Jake Odorizzi--RHP | |
| 17. Tim Melville--RHP | |
| 28. Tyler Sample--RHP | |
| 30. Noel Arguelles--LHP | |
| 41. Kelvin Herrera--RHP | |
| 43. Justin Marks--LHP | |
| 44. Elisaul Pimentel--RHP | |
| 50. Jose Bonilla-C | |
| 56. Keaton Hayenga--RHP | |
| Low-A | 11. Cheslor Cuthbert--3B |
| 12. Brett Eibner--CF | |
| 18. Robinson Yambati--RHP | |
| 19. Yordano Ventura--RHP | |
| 23. Jason Adam--RHP | |
| 32. Crawford Simmons--LHP | |
| 52. Greg BIllo--RHP | |
| 54. Yowil Espinal--2B | |
| 58. Wilian Avinazar--RHP | |
| 59. Mike Mariot--RHP | |
| 61. Justin Trapp--SS | |
| 62. Leonel Santiago--RHP | |
| 63. Murray Watts--1B | |
| 64. Brian Fletcher--OF | |
| 65. Pat White--CF | |
| Short-Season | 40. Michael Antonio--SS |
| 42. Humberto Arteaga--SS | |
| 45. Jorge Bonifacio--CF | |
| 55. Paul Carlixte--SS | |
| 57. Shin Jo-Ho--C | |
Here is my overall Top 25 for prospects. Also, I note below where I would rank other Royals prospects in a Top 100 list.
| Rank | Name |
| 1 | Bryce Harper--WAS--OF |
| 2 | Mike Trout--LAA--CF |
| 3 | Jeremy Hellickson--TAM--RHP |
| 4 | Julio Teheran--ATL--RHP |
| 5 | Wil Myers--KC--C/OF |
| 6 | Jesus Montero--NYY--C/DH |
| 7 | Eric Hosmer--KC--1B |
| 8 | Mike Moustakas--KC--3B |
| 9 | Dominic Brown--PHI--OF |
| 10 | Shelby Miller--STL--RHP |
| 11 | Matt Moore--TAM--LHP |
| 12 | Desmond Jennings--TAM--CF |
| 13 | Dustin Ackley--SEA--2B |
| 14 | Freddie Freeman--ATL--1B |
| 15 | Mike Montgomery--KC--LHP |
| 16 | Aroldis Chapman--CIN--LHP |
| 17 | Michael Pineda--SEA--RHP |
| 18 | Mike Minor--ATL--LHP |
| 19 | John Lamb--KC--LHP |
| 20 | Kyle Gibson--MIN--RHP |
| 21 | Jameson Taillon--PIT--RHP |
| 22 | Brandon Belt--SFG--1B |
| 23 | Zach Britton--BAL--RHP |
| 24 | Manny Machado--BAL--SS |
| 25 | Randall Delgado--ATL--RHP |
I would rank Duffy and Dwyer in the 50s, Odorizzi in the 60s, Colon in the 70s and Crow in the 90s.
Here are the AL Central farm systems and how they stack up against each other.
| Rank | CHI | CLE | DET | KC | MIN |
| 1 | Chris Sale | Jason Kipnis | Jacob Turner | Mike Moustakas | Kyle Gibson |
| 2 | Brent Morel | Lonnie Chisenahall | Nick Castellanos | John Lamb | Aaron Hicks |
| 3 | Dayan Viciedo | Drew Pomeranz | Andy Oliver | Eric Hosmer | Miguel Sano |
| 4 | Jared Mitchell | Alex White | Chance Ruffin | Wil Myers | Joe Benson |
| 5 | Eduardo Escobar | LeVon Washington | Daniel Schlereth | Mike Montgomery | Ben Revere |
| 6 | Gregori Infante | Nick Weglarz | Daniel Fields | Chris Dwyer | Liam Hendriks |
| 7 | Jacob Petricka | Joe Gardner | Drew Smyly | Dan Duffy | Alex Wimmers |
| 8 | Brandon Short | Jason Knapp | Casey Crosby | Jeremy Jeffress | Adrian Salcedo |
| 9 | Trayce Thompson | Tony Wolters | Francisco Martinez | Jake Odorizzi | Oswaldo Arcia |
| 10 | Anthony Carter | Cord Phelps | Bruce Rondon | Christian Colon | Carlos Gutierrez |
I tried to use Kevin Goldstein's star rankings--but he hasn't done the White Sox/Twins--so I used BA's rankings and guessed at the stars. 5 star prospects=Top 50ish and are bold/italic. 4 star prospects=Top 100ish and are normal. 3 star=101-200ish and are bold. 2 star prospects=filler and are italicized. The Twins have a good farm system and look to be a good team for the foreseeable future. Cleveland has a deep farm system but not many impact players. Chicago and Detroit are in win now mode--but have the deep pockets to stay competitive if they are smart.
A year from now what might the Royals farm system look like? Below is some creative writing and a look into the future.
| Rank | Name | Comment |
| 1 | Wil Myers | One of top prospects in baseball after dominating Carolina and Texas Leagues |
| 2 | Eric Hosmer | Ready to take over 1st Base after showing big power in AAA |
| 3 | George Springer | The Royals 1st Round pick has the potential to be a more athletic Jay Bruce |
| 4 | John Lamb | Could start 2012 in the rotation after lots of Ks and good control at AA and AAA. |
| 5 | Jake Odorizzi | Put it all together at Wilmington--and pitched well at AA |
| 6 | Yordano Ventura | Incredible stuff that dominated at Low-A |
| 7 | Brett Eibner | Dominated at Low-A and then hit well at Wilmington after promotion. |
| 8 | Cheslor Cuthbert | Hit for average and power as 18 year old at Kane County. |
| 9 | Sal Perez | Handled the AA pitching staff with ease and the bat won't hurt you. |
| 10 | Humberto Arteaga | 17 year old had strong short season debut--showing good bat and glove |
| 11 | Tim Melville | Bounced back with a good 2011--starting in Wilmington and finished in NW Arkansas. |
| 12 | Noel Arguelles | He exists and looked good but still battled some injuries. |
| 13 | Chris Dwyer | Had an up and down year at AA--control needs help. |
| 14 | Robinson Yambati | Showed good stuff in the Midwest League |
| 15 | Kelvim Herrera | Finally got healthy at mid season and showed the stuff that has everyone excited. |
The Royals could easily have a Top 3 system next year--even if they graduate some top prospects in 2011 (like Moose, Monty and Duffy). They should add a top prospect with their 1st Round pick of the June draft. They also have a lot high ceiling prospects (especially pitchers) who could emerge in 2011.
There you go. I've sliced and diced Royals prospects just about every way I can imagine. All we need now is for games to start and be able to see how these kids perform. Thanks to everyone for reading the series and all the great comments.