Name: Edwin Jackson, 28 year old RHP with the Cardinals
Contract: Free Agent at the end of season. Made 4.2M in 2010 and 8.35M in 2011. He eould probably be looking for a 3-5 year deal. I don't see many teams offering him more than 3 years. He has averaged over 3.5 WAR over the last 3 years. Assuming 5M per WAR, he could be looking for at least $45M/3 year deal (3 WAR talent over the 3 years). If he is a 2.5 WAR pitcher (3/2.5/2 WAR), the 3 year contract would be 37.5M.
Pitches:
Fastballs: Used 55% to 65% - He has both a 4 finger and 2 finger fastball. He is using it less in recently. It consistently averages around 94.5MPH.
Slider: Used around 25% of the time until 2011, when he began to use it 40% of the time. The White Sox noticed it was his most effective pitch and got him throwing it more.
Change Up: Used 10% of the time
Curve: Used it 2.5% of the time until 2011 when he ditched it completely.
Here is is usage patter over the last few years:
Results:
| Year | Team | G | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| 2006 | Devil Rays | 23 | 1 | 36.1 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 0.336 | 52% | 5.4% | 5.45 | 4.52 | 5.24 | 0.2 |
| 2007 | Devil Rays | 32 | 31 | 161.0 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.341 | 45% | 10.2% | 5.76 | 4.90 | 4.82 | 1.5 |
| 2008 | Rays | 32 | 31 | 183.1 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.302 | 39% | 9.6% | 4.42 | 4.88 | 4.97 | 1.3 |
| 2009 | Tigers | 33 | 33 | 214.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.276 | 39% | 9.9% | 3.62 | 4.28 | 4.32 | 3.6 |
| 2010 | 2 Teams | 32 | 32 | 209.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.313 | 49% | 10.6% | 4.47 | 3.86 | 3.71 | 3.8 |
| 2011 | 2 Teams | 32 | 31 | 199.2 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.330 | 44% | 8.2% | 3.79 | 3.55 | 3.73 | 3.8 |
He looks to have a K/9 in the upper 6's with a BB/9 round 3.0. He keeps the ball in the ball park at a league average rate. His talent looks to be be a bit better than any other starter on the Royals except possibly Paulino.
Injury History:
2004: Forearm injury (missed 53 games)
2006: Head injury (missed 7 games)
His injury history is close to perfect. One big red flag I have is his increase use of the slider. There is some work done that high slider usage leads to an increase injury risk.
Conclusions:
He would be an improvement over the current Royals starting pitchers. He would eat up a ton of innings and gives consistent production over the years. His price, IMO, is probably a little too high for the Royals to afford. I would probably max out a $36M/3 contract for him. With the lack of SP in the FA market, I think he will go for much more.
Other Royal Starting Pitching Targets: