Now it is time to project another player at Fangraphs, after doing Jeff Francoeur a couple of days ago. Here is Jeff's line with 18 votes cast:
0.277/0.319/0.437, 614 PA, 18 HRs, 2.2 WAR
Today I will go with Eric Hosmer. He has already got enough votes to have a projection, but it is Hosmer and I can never get too much of him:
First, I looked at 21-year-old players since 1950 who have had more than 400 PA and a wOBA between 0.332 and 0.352 (Hosmer had 0.342). Twenty-four players made the list including Hosmer. Two other players met the requirements in 2011, Freddie Freeman and Starlin Castro. The rest of the players are:
Juan Gonzalez, John Olerud, Garry Templeton, Eddie Murray, Carney Lansford, Roberto Clemente, Jack Clark, Gary Sheffield, Barry Bonds, Rusty Staub, Ted Simmons, Cal Ripken, Boog Powell, Rick Manning, Greg Luzinski, Greg Gross, Jose Canseco, Delino DeShields, Ryan Zimmerman, Melky Cabrera, Jose Tabata
Not a bad list in all. A few Hall of Famers and most players had a decent career.
Here is a look at how the players did in their age 22 season (21 samples):
- PAs went up 16 of 21 times with the average being 16.5 PA. For the 5 times it went down, it was on average 185 PA mainly due to injury
- The number of times the wOBA went up in the next season was 10 of 21.
- The instances of the player's wOBA going less than 0.332 was 8 times, between 0.332 and 0.352 was 4 times, and greater than 0.352 9 times.
- Next, I separated the player into groups that saw their PAs increase and decrease. If the player saw their PA increase, their wOBA increased by 0.007. If their PAs decreased, their wOBA went down by -0.021.
Looking at similar player from the past, Hosmer is in good company. He will likely get more PAs in 2012 and, if healthy, he may see his performance improve a bit.