2011 Season Preview: Melky Cabrera

Well, time to start the pre-season previews of various players. Last season we did not get all done, so I am going to try to do the players we are least familiar with first and work to the players we have seen for a few years in case it happens again. If some one wants to do a player, feel free to grab them. I will be taking Gordon. I want to go pretty in-depth with him.

Melky Cabrera spent last season with the Braves after spending 3 seasons with the Yankees.  He signed this off season with the Royals for $1.25 million . The signing didn't make a whole lot of sense with the Royals inking Frenchy just a few days before that, but Dayton Moore loves to hoard his outfielders. Melky comes into the season penciled in as the starting center fielder.

 

Here is a look back on his stats over the past 4 years:

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Fld	WAR
2005	Yankees	6	19	0	0	0.0%	10.5%	0.235	0.211	0.211	0.211	0.187	-3	-0.4
2006	Yankees	130	524	7	12	10.1%	12.8%	0.309	0.280	0.360	0.391	0.333	3	1.5
2007	Yankees	150	612	8	13	7.0%	12.5%	0.295	0.273	0.327	0.391	0.317	-8.1	0.6
2008	Yankees	129	453	8	9	5.3%	14.0%	0.271	0.249	0.301	0.341	0.285	2.5	0.3
2009	Yankees	154	540	13	10	7.2%	12.2%	0.288	0.274	0.336	0.416	0.331	1.6	1.9
2010	Braves	147	509	4	7	6.1%	14.0%	0.288	0.255	0.317	0.354	0.294	-15.9	-1.2

Looking over his stats, they kinda remind me DeJesus's stats, OK in almost all areas – average, power, speed -- but Melky but can't take a walk or field nearly as well as David could. The other stat that surprised me was lower than average BABIP. Usually a BABIP is 0.125 higher than a players line drive rate seen here:

	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%
Melky's Career  #'s	1.55	19.1%	49.1%	31.7%	11.3%	6.1%	7.20%	18.6
League Average		18.20%	44.30%	37.50%	9.30%	~11%

 

He should have a BABIP around .300 plus with his line drive percentage.

 

Looking at the batted ball data, his HR/FB is extremely low. He has shown very little power and I except to see quite a bit of weak fly out this season. Now here is a look at his Oliver and Marcel projections:

 

	PA	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Field	WAR
Oliver	546	9	8	0.265	0.325	0.379	0.312	3	0.4
Marcels	508	9	9	0.262	0.321	0.382	0.300

 

He looks to end up near replacement level for the upcoming season. After doing a few more outfielder previews, I think we are going to see quite a few outfielders near the same production level.