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2011 Season Preview: Melky Cabrera

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Well, time to start the pre-season previews of various players. Last season we did not get all done, so I am going to try to do the players we are least familiar with first and work to the players we have seen for a few years in case it happens again. If some one wants to do a player, feel free to grab them. I will be taking Gordon. I want to go pretty in-depth with him.

Melky Cabrera spent last season with the Braves after spending 3 seasons with the Yankees.  He signed this off season with the Royals for $1.25 million . The signing didn't make a whole lot of sense with the Royals inking Frenchy just a few days before that, but Dayton Moore loves to hoard his outfielders. Melky comes into the season penciled in as the starting center fielder.

 

Here is a look back on his stats over the past 4 years:

Season Team G PA HR SB BB% K% BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Fld WAR
2005 Yankees 6 19 0 0 0.0% 10.5% 0.235 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.187 -3 -0.4
2006 Yankees 130 524 7 12 10.1% 12.8% 0.309 0.280 0.360 0.391 0.333 3 1.5
2007 Yankees 150 612 8 13 7.0% 12.5% 0.295 0.273 0.327 0.391 0.317 -8.1 0.6
2008 Yankees 129 453 8 9 5.3% 14.0% 0.271 0.249 0.301 0.341 0.285 2.5 0.3
2009 Yankees 154 540 13 10 7.2% 12.2% 0.288 0.274 0.336 0.416 0.331 1.6 1.9
2010 Braves 147 509 4 7 6.1% 14.0% 0.288 0.255 0.317 0.354 0.294 -15.9 -1.2

Looking over his stats, they kinda remind me DeJesus's stats, OK in almost all areas – average, power, speed -- but Melky but can't take a walk or field nearly as well as David could. The other stat that surprised me was lower than average BABIP. Usually a BABIP is 0.125 higher than a players line drive rate seen here:

GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH%
Melky's Career  #'s
1.55 19.1% 49.1% 31.7% 11.3% 6.1% 7.20% 18.6
League Average
18.20% 44.30% 37.50% 9.30% ~11%

 

He should have a BABIP around .300 plus with his line drive percentage.

 

Looking at the batted ball data, his HR/FB is extremely low. He has shown very little power and I except to see quite a bit of weak fly out this season. Now here is a look at his Oliver and Marcel projections:

 


PA HR SB BA OBP SLG wOBA Field WAR
Oliver 546 9 8 0.265 0.325 0.379 0.312 3 0.4
Marcels 508 9 9 0.262 0.321 0.382 0.300

 

He looks to end up near replacement level for the upcoming season. After doing a few more outfielder previews, I think we are going to see quite a few outfielders near the same production level.