Is Nate Adcock actually a good pitcher? I've never really been a believer, and to me he's been a classic example of a Rule 5 pick who has, because of the mechanics of that rule, been given a roster spot. The fact that he doesn't strike anyone out has reinforced this perception, as has the fact that his middle name is Masler. Maslers are either going to be Hall of Fame level studs or flame out of baseball in two years, in my mental universe.
Here are Adcock's stats:
|2011 - Nathan Adcock||1-0||11||2||0||0||0||0||28.2||32||13||12||4||9||14||3.77||1.43|
Relevant rate stats: 4.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9
Now, remember, run-scoring is down. A 3.77 ERA would have made you a millionaire three years ago, but now it is closer to league average, thus his ERA+ is just 104. Predictably, with such low strikeout numbers, he's got a much higher FIP (5.04) and a somewhat higher xFIP (4.23). For what it's worth, ZIPs projects him to get blown up the rest of the season: projecting a 5.82 ERA the rest of the way. Ouch. Nevertheless, we may have to start adjusting our theories about pitching in this new run environment: ball-in-play/pitch-to-contact guys like Adcock might have a bright new future waiting for them. Or, maybe not.