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Rookie Of The Year Regression

With talk of Eric Hosmer being a ROY of the canidate, here are some numbers of the past 20 hitters to win ROY:

  • 12 of 20 saw their AVG drop. Overall the average dropped 10 points the next year.
  • 11 of 20 saw their OBP drop. Overall the average dropped 3 points the next year.
  • 13 of 20 saw their SLG drop. Overall the average dropped 10 points the next year.

Truthfully, I expected the drop off to be more. Most of the ROY candidates out produced their talent in their rookie season and saw a drop off the next year. Younger players should improve with age, but not as much as regression may bring these over achievers down.