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Dayton Moore has been quoted as saying "The Process" is an eight year timeline. He has stressed development from within, through the draft and amateur scouting. Since Day One, Dayton has also emphasized pitching, calling it the "currency of baseball." Home-grown pitching was how the Royals would return to glory, much like the days when they produced Steve Busby, Paul Splittorff, Dennis Leonard, Mark Gubicza, and Bret Saberhagen.
We are now in the sixth full season of his tenure, and yet our pitching is still in shambles. By my count, Dayton Moore has drafted 154 pitchers, and here is the only pitcher that has started in the big leagues:*
|
Player |
WAR |
W-L |
ERA |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
|
Danny Duffy, KCR |
0.2 |
6-10 |
5.28 |
3 (2007) |
96 |
*-unless you count Luke Hochevar, which Dayton sometimes does and sometimes does not, depending on how Luke is faring.
Perhaps we are being too impatient in the development in starting pitching?
Here is a list of starting pitchers with at least 1 WAR in career value, who were drafted 2007 or later.
|
Player
|
WAR
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
Round (Year)
|
Overall
|
Drafted out of
|
|
David Price, TBR*
|
10.9
|
53-30
|
3.28
|
1(2007)
|
1
|
College
|
|
Chris Sale, CHW
|
7.9
|
15-5
|
2.33
|
1 (2011)
|
13
|
College
|
|
Jordan Zimmerman, WAS
|
6.5
|
18-24
|
3.44
|
2(2007)
|
67
|
College
|
|
Madison Bumgarner, SFG
|
6.3
|
30-24
|
3.14
|
1(2007)
|
10
|
High School
|
|
Stephen Strasburg, WAS *
|
5.0
|
16-8
|
2.60
|
1(2010)
|
1
|
College
|
|
Vance Worley, PHI
|
4.8
|
17-9
|
3.10
|
3(2008)
|
102
|
College
|
|
Daniel Hudson, CHW
|
4.3
|
28-17
|
3.68
|
5(2008)
|
150
|
College
|
|
Tommy Hunter, TEX
|
2.9
|
29-20
|
4.82
|
1(2007)
|
54
|
College
|
|
Ross Detwiler, WAS
|
2.8
|
10-17
|
3.77
|
1(2007)
|
6
|
College
|
|
Rick Porcello, DET
|
2.7
|
44-35
|
4.56
|
1(2007)
|
27
|
High School
|
|
Lance Lynn, STL
|
2.6
|
12-5
|
3.24
|
1(2008)
|
39
|
College
|
|
Jarrod Parker , ARI
|
2.5
|
6-4
|
2.98
|
1(2007)
|
9
|
High School
|
|
Brett Cecil, TOR
|
2.4
|
28-24
|
4.77
|
1(2007)
|
38
|
College
|
|
Mike Fiers, MIL
|
2.4
|
3-3
|
1.94
|
22(2009)
|
676
|
College
|
|
Josh Collmenter, ARI
|
2.3
|
11-12
|
3.53
|
9(2007)
|
463
|
College
|
|
Wade Miley, ARI
|
2.2
|
14-7
|
3.51
|
1(2008)
|
43
|
College
|
|
Cory Luebke, SDP
|
2.2
|
10-12
|
3.25
|
1(2007)
|
63
|
College
|
|
Tommy Milone, WAS
|
1.8
|
10-6
|
3.59
|
10(2008)
|
301
|
College
|
|
Dillon Gee, NYM
|
1.8
|
21-15
|
4.06
|
21(2007)
|
663
|
College
|
|
Mike Leake, CIN*
|
1.7
|
23-19
|
4.01
|
1(2009)
|
8
|
College
|
|
Drew Smyly, DET
|
1.0
|
4-3
|
4.42
|
2 (2011)
|
68
|
College
|
*-drafted before the Royals had a chance to select
How does Dayton Moore’s track record of one pitcher out of 154 draft picks compare to other clubs in baseball? Here is a list of pitchers drafted in 2007 or later that have made at last one Major League start and the teams that drafted them.
|
Team
|
Pitchers
|
GS
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
WAR
|
|
|
Tyler Chatwood, Patrick Corbin, Garrett Richards, Will Smith
|
42
|
12-21
|
5.02
|
-1.5
|
|
|
Jordan Lyles
|
26
|
4-13
|
5.25
|
-1.5
|
|
|
Tyson Ross
|
20
|
6-15
|
5.16
|
-0.6
|
|
|
Brett Cecil, Drew Hutchison, Brad Mills, Mark Rzepczynski
|
114
|
45-46
|
4.81
|
2.9
|
|
|
Mike Minor
|
39
|
13-11
|
5.27
|
-1.9
|
|
|
Mike Fiers
|
8
|
3-3
|
2.01
|
2.4
|
|
|
Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Clayton Mortensen
|
39
|
17-14
|
3.65
|
3.2
|
|
|
Andrew Cashner
|
5
|
5-9
|
3.98
|
0.5
|
|
|
Bryan Augenstein, Josh Collmenter, Barry Enright, Wade Miley, Jarrod Parker
|
95
|
38-36
|
3.93
|
3.4
|
|
|
Nate Eovali
|
15
|
2-8
|
4.05
|
0.9
|
|
|
Madison Bumgarner
|
70
|
31-24
|
3.11
|
6.3
|
|
|
Drew Pomeranz, Alex White
|
32
|
8-15
|
5.85
|
0.2
|
|
|
None
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brad Hand, Elih Villanueva
|
13
|
1-9
|
5.14
|
0.0
|
|
|
Dillon Gee, Chris Schwinden
|
55
|
21-18
|
4.32
|
1.1
|
|
|
Ross Detwiler, Tommy Milone, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman
|
166
|
54-55
|
3.41
|
13.3
|
|
|
Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz
|
126
|
40-56
|
5.39
|
0.4
|
|
|
Dylan Axelrod, Anthony Bass, Cory Luebke
|
48
|
16-21
|
3.55
|
3.5
|
|
|
Vance Worley
|
38
|
17-9
|
3.10
|
4.8
|
|
|
None
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blake Beavan, Joe Wieland
|
32
|
8-16
|
4.86
|
-0.4
|
|
|
David Price, Matt Moore
|
125
|
59-36
|
3.45
|
10.9
|
|
|
Kyle Weiland
|
8
|
0-6
|
7.23
|
-0.9
|
|
|
Mike Leake, Zach Stewart
|
77
|
26-27
|
4.38
|
-1.1
|
|
|
Christian Friedrich
|
13
|
5-6
|
5.60
|
0.5
|
|
Royals
|
Danny Duffy
|
26
|
6-10
|
5.28
|
0.2
|
|
|
Casey Crosby, Charlie Furbush, Andrew Oliver, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Jacob Turner, Adam Wilk
|
151
|
57-60
|
4.79
|
2.0
|
|
|
None
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
John Ely, Daniel Hudson, Chris Sale
|
93
|
47-33
|
3.55
|
11.9 |
|
|
David Phelps
|
3
|
1-3
|
41.1/14
|
1.0
|
*-note: pitcher stats may include relief statistics if the pitcher both started and relieved in his career. All pitchers on the list have made at least one MLB start
One could argue that since Dayton favors higher upside high school pitchers, it will take longer for those prospects to develop into MLB pitchers. So is there any help on the way?
Here are the 51 pitchers in the Top prospect lists for Baseball America, John Sickels, Fangraphs, and Jonathan Mayo, that were eligible for the draft in 2007-2012.
|
Team
|
Pitchers
|
|
Angels (2)
|
Garrett Richards (2009), Tyler Skaggs (2009)
|
|
Astros (0)
|
None
|
|
Athletics (1)
|
Sonny Gray (2011)
|
|
Blue Jays (5)
|
Drew Hutchison (2009), Deck McGuire (2011), Justin Nicolino (2010), Daniel Norris (2011), Noah Syndergaard (2010)
|
|
Braves (1)
|
Sean Gilmartin (2011)
|
|
Brewers (4)
|
Jed Bradley (2011), Taylor Jungman (2011), Jake Odorizzi (2008), Tyler Thornburg (2010)
|
|
Cardinals (3)
|
Lance Lynn (2008), Shelby Miller (2009), Tyrell Jenkins (2010)
|
|
Cubs (0)
|
None
|
|
Diamondbacks (3)
|
Trevor Bauer (2011), Archie Bradley (2011), Jarrod Parker (2007)
|
|
Dodgers (4)
|
Nate Eovaldi (2008), Zach Lee (2010), Chris Reed (2011), Allen Webster (2008)
|
|
Giants (1)
|
Zack Wheeler (2009)
|
|
Indians (2)
|
Dillon Howard (2011), Drew Pomeranz (2007)
|
|
Mariners (3)
|
Danny Hultzen (2011), James Paxton (2010), Taijuan Walker (2010)
|
|
Marlins (1)
|
Jose Fernandez (2011)
|
|
Mets (1)
|
Matt Harvey (2010)
|
|
Nationals (2)
|
A.J. Cole (2010), Alex Meyer (2011)
|
|
Orioles (1)
|
Dylan Bundy (2011)
|
|
Padres (1)
|
Keyvius Sampson (2009)
|
|
Phillies (4)
|
Jesse Biddle (2010), Brody Colvin (2007), Jarred Cosart (2008), Trevor May (2008)
|
|
Pirates (2)
|
Gerrit Cole (2011), Jameson Taillon (2010)
|
|
Rangers (3)
|
Robbie Erlin (2009), Neil Ramirez (2007), Joe Wieland (2008)
|
|
Rays (2)
|
Matt Moore (2007), Taylor Guerrieri (2011)
|
|
Red Sox (2)
|
Matt Barnes (2011), Casey Kelly (2008)
|
|
Reds (0)
|
None
|
|
Rockies (1)
|
Chad Bettis (2010)
|
|
Royals (1)
|
Mike Montgomery (2008)
|
|
Tigers (1)
|
Jacob Turner (2009)
|
|
Twins (0)
|
None
|
|
White Sox (0)
|
None
|
|
Yankees (0)
|
None
|
All we hear from this organization is that "pitching is the currency of baseball", and "we have the best minor league system in the history of whatever", and "Pepsi Max has fewer calories than regular Pepsi." And yet, out of 154 pitchers selected over six seasons, just one has had a Major League start.
And do things look better on the horizon? The best of the starters Dayton has drafted –Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, and Chris Dwyer – are either hurt or have majorly regressed. Others –Jason Adam, Kyle Smith, Brian Brickhouse – are much too far away to get excited about yet.
There are certainly other ways of developing pitching, either through Latin American free agents like Yordano Ventura, and through trades like Jake Odorizzi. But certainly for a small market club like the Royals, the June amateur draft is going to be the bloodline for your pitcher development.
Dayton Moore is great at finding and developing relievers. He may even be pretty good at finding hitters (although the early returns aren’t great on this offense). But the returns on starting pitching have not promising thus far. And if that does not improve soon, his process can no longer be trusted.