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Game 109 Open Thread - Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

By Jeff Zimmerman

Starting Pitchers:

Chen (7-9, 5.66 ERA) vs Peavy (9-7, 3.04 ERA)

For some pregame "entertainment" tonight, I have a couple new programs for people to try out. The programs takea hitter's or pitcher's preseason projection (Marcels) and then looks for players with similar projections, plate appearances and age. It then exports how those players actually performed. For example, Hosmer has a 2012 Marcel of:

AVG/OBP/SLG/ISO
0.294/.343/.471/.176

Here are the results for players that had similar projections since 2002 and how they performed:

Lastname Firstname Year Age AB AVG OBP SLG ISO
Cano Robinson 2006 24 482 0.342 0.365 0.525 0.183
Ramirez Hanley 2007 24 639 0.332 0.386 0.562 0.230
Davis Ike 2011 24 129 0.302 0.383 0.543 0.240
Markakis Nick 2007 24 637 0.300 0.363 0.485 0.185
Martin Russell 2007 24 540 0.293 0.374 0.469 0.176
Kemp Matt 2008 24 606 0.290 0.340 0.459 0.168
Sizemore Grady 2006 24 655 0.290 0.375 0.533 0.243
Encarnacion Edwin 2007 24 502 0.289 0.356 0.438 0.149
McCutchen Andrew 2010 24 570 0.286 0.365 0.449 0.163
Posey Buster 2011 24 162 0.284 0.368 0.389 0.105
Blalock Hank 2004 24 624 0.276 0.355 0.500 0.224
Butler Billy 2008 22 443 0.275 0.324 0.400 0.124
Upton B.J. 2008 24 531 0.273 0.383 0.401 0.128
Zimmerman Ryan 2007 23 653 0.267 0.330 0.458 0.191
Tulowitzki Troy 2008 24 377 0.263 0.332 0.401 0.138
Peralta Jhonny 2006 24 569 0.257 0.323 0.385 0.128
Beckham Gordon 2010 24 444 0.252 0.317 0.378 0.126
Cantu Jorge 2006 24 413 0.249 0.295 0.404 0.155
Hermida Jeremy 2008 24 502 0.249 0.323 0.406 0.157
Bruce Jay 2009 22 345 0.223 0.303 0.470 0.246
Alvarez Pedro 2011 24 235 0.192 0.272 0.289 0.098

Looks like Homser and his .231/.301/.362/.131 line will be towards the bottom of the list next year.

Here is a link to each new program:

Hitters

Pitchers

Note: Reliability means the amount of player data vice league average data used for the projection. Players or part-timers will have lower reliability then players that have been playing full time for 3+ years.

Thanks for being my guinea pigs Beta testers and let me know if you have any questions.

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