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FanGraphs today released the 2013 ZiPS projections for the Royals. ZiPS is one of the best projections systems available and was created by Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory. Hi Dan. Some of the highlights.
Of some interest will be how the club handles second base this year. Despite having posted just a 64 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR in his first 376 major-league plate appearances, 25-year-old Johnny Giavotella‘s profile - according to ZiPS - remains that of league-average player. To his credit, he posted one of the best regressed offensive lines in the Pacific Coast League last year among prospect-aged batters.
I am a little surprise to see Johnny so high. He projects to be better than the other 2B options
| Player | BB% | K% | BA | OBP | SLG | ISO | wOBA |
| Johnny Giavotella | 6.4% | 13.4% | 0.266 | 0.316 | 0.368 | 0.102 | 0.300 |
| Chris Getz | 6.3% | 10.2% | 0.259 | 0.310 | 0.316 | 0.057 | 0.277 |
| Irving Falu | 5.3% | 10.5% | 0.261 | 0.300 | 0.333 | 0.072 | 0.273 |
| Tony Abreu | 3.2% | 19.6% | 0.248 | 0.276 | 0.354 | 0.106 | 0.271 |
| Miguel Tejada | 3.8% | 11.0% | 0.251 | 0.284 | 0.328 | 0.077 | 0.256 |
| Brandon Wood | 5.2% | 28.3% | 0.211 | 0.255 | 0.329 | 0.118 | 0.252 |
Also, competition (Endy Chavez, Xavier Nady, and Willy Taveras) was brought in to test/compete with Francoeur. Too bad the has beens project t be significantly worse than Jeffy.
| Player | BB% | K% | BA | OBP | SLG | ISO | wOBA |
| Jeff Francoeur | 5.3% | 18.1% | 0.261 | 0.305 | 0.413 | 0.152 | 0.303 |
| Xavier Nady | 5.5% | 24.4% | 0.222 | 0.276 | 0.329 | 0.107 | 0.266 |
| Endy Chavez | 3.9% | 11.4% | 0.249 | 0.280 | 0.329 | 0.080 | 0.265 |
| Willy Taveras | 3.5% | 15.7% | 0.228 | 0.259 | 0.302 | 0.074 | 0.246 |
The big push for the Royals this off season was with acquiring some real starters. Here is how the 4 players brought in compare to the old guard (ranked by ERA+):
| Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | WAR |
| James Shields | 208.0 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 100 | 3.2 |
| Wade Davis | 153.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 95 | 1.9 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 163.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 93 | 1.9 |
| Felipe Paulino | 88.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 92 | 0.9 |
| Danny Duffy | 81.0 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 86 | 0.6 |
| Will Smith | 163.7 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 83 | 0.8 |
| Bruce Chen | 141.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 82 | 0.6 |
| Luis Mendoza | 134.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 82 | 0.5 |
| Ervin Santana | 178.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 81 | 0.6 |
| Luke Hochevar | 156.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 81 | 0.6 |
Some huge improvements at the top of the rotation and then it gets pretty muddled. A big shout out to Royal-Fan who stated a few weeks that Santana and Hockevar are the same.
Finally, I like to see where the pitching prospects project. These have to be taken with a grain of a salt, but a couple of years ago, the projections liked Duffy over Montgomery when everyone was raving about Monty.
| Player | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ |
| Donnie Joseph | 7.8 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 86 |
| Nathan Adcock | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 77 |
| Yordano Ventura | 6.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 73 |
| Michael Mariot | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 72 |
| John Lamb | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 71 |
| Jason Adam | 4.7 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 67 |
| Ryan Verdugo | 6.4 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 66 |
| Noel Arguelles | 3.4 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 60 |
| Chris Dwyer | 5.3 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 59 |
Not a ton of love, but nice to see Ventura with a +6 K% in the majors. The biggest issue across the board looks to be walks.
Not a ton of surprises. Maybe besides some IP or PA everything, besides Johnny's projection, seem right. Your thoughts?