2013 Breakout Chances: Royals Infielders

Every season player projections are released and fans will continuously debate how they will be wrong. Of course they will be wrong because it is humans playing the game, not computers. Some players will do better, others worse and some will even magically produce how they were projected to perform. Today, I am going to look at how past players performed who had similar projections to the Royals infielders (outfielders, Butler and pitchers will be later).

For the projections, I am using Marcel projections for a few reasons. Marcels projections are the simpilest projections produced, but hold up decently compared to other projections. Also, they are freely available going back to 1901. With the projections, I have created a simple tool. It takes a player's projection for a season. Then, it goes back and looks for players with similar projections and they sees how each of the players actually performed.

With data, I went and looked at the Royals who are likely to see time in the infield and how comparable players (age, playing time, production) performed.

Eric Hosmer (the player's projection is first, then similar players ordered by OPS. Players with an OPS >0.050 on in the first group. +/- 0.050 are in the second group and <0.050 are in the last group)

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Eric Hosmer's Projection	2013	24	504	0.268	0.329	0.429	0.161	0.757
Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Adrian Beltre	2004	25	598	0.334	0.388	0.629	0.294	1.017
Billy Butler	2009	23	608	0.301	0.362	0.492	0.191	0.853
Stephen Drew	2008	25	611	0.291	0.333	0.503	0.211	0.836
Juan Uribe	2004	25	502	0.283	0.327	0.506	0.223	0.833
Corey Patterson	2004	25	631	0.266	0.320	0.452	0.185	0.771
Adam Jones	2010	25	581	0.284	0.325	0.442	0.158	0.767
Colby Rasmus	2011	25	338	0.246	0.333	0.420	0.175	0.753
Jeremy Hermida	2009	25	429	0.259	0.348	0.392	0.133	0.740
Lastings Milledge	2009	24	220	0.291	0.333	0.396	0.105	0.729
Juan Uribe	2003	24	316	0.253	0.297	0.427	0.174	0.724
Adrian Beltre	2003	24	559	0.240	0.290	0.424	0.184	0.714
Jimmy Rollins	2003	25	628	0.263	0.320	0.387	0.124	0.707
Alex Gordon	2009	25	164	0.232	0.325	0.378	0.146	0.703
Cristian Guzman	2003	25	534	0.268	0.311	0.365	0.097	0.676
Jose Lopez	2007	24	524	0.252	0.284	0.355	0.103	0.639
Gordon Beckham	2011	25	499	0.231	0.296	0.337	0.106	0.633
Omar Infante	2005	24	406	0.222	0.254	0.367	0.145	0.621

A nice curve of players above and below his projection, but the best hitter is probably Billy Butler. Here is a comparison of the Gordon, Butler and Hosmer projections:

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Alex Gordon	2009	25	482	0.261	0.342	0.432	0.170	0.773
Billy Butler	2009	23	434	0.288	0.346	0.436	0.148	0.781
Eric Hosmer	2013	24	504	0.268	0.329	0.429	0.161	0.757

Butler and Gordon had similar projections for 2009, but their seasons when in opposite ways. It seems like 2013 may be a make or break year for Hosmer.

Mike Moustakas

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Mike Moustakas's Projection	2013	25	498	0.259	0.314	0.418	0.159	0.732
Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Adrian Beltre	2004	25	598	0.334	0.388	0.629	0.294	1.017
Adam Lind	2009	26	587	0.305	0.370	0.562	0.257	0.932
Corey Patterson	2003	24	329	0.298	0.329	0.511	0.213	0.839
Felipe Lopez	2005	25	580	0.291	0.352	0.486	0.195	0.838
Bill Hall	2005	26	501	0.291	0.342	0.495	0.204	0.837
Juan Uribe	2004	25	502	0.283	0.327	0.506	0.223	0.833
Jimmy Rollins	2004	26	657	0.289	0.348	0.455	0.166	0.803
Adam Jones	2009	24	473	0.277	0.335	0.457	0.180	0.792
Adam Jones	2011	26	567	0.280	0.319	0.466	0.185	0.785
Alex Gordon	2008	24	493	0.260	0.351	0.432	0.172	0.783
Franklin Gutierrez	2009	26	565	0.283	0.339	0.425	0.142	0.764
Omar Infante	2006	25	224	0.277	0.325	0.415	0.138	0.740
Juan Uribe	2003	24	316	0.253	0.297	0.427	0.174	0.724
Jimmy Rollins	2003	25	628	0.263	0.320	0.387	0.124	0.707
John Buck	2006	26	371	0.245	0.306	0.396	0.151	0.702
Jose Castillo	2006	25	518	0.253	0.300	0.382	0.129	0.682
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	2010	25	19	0.158	0.360	0.316	0.158	0.676
Jeff Francoeur	2010	26	401	0.237	0.293	0.369	0.132	0.662
Omar Infante	2007	26	166	0.271	0.307	0.355	0.084	0.662
Ian Desmond	2011	26	584	0.253	0.298	0.358	0.105	0.656
Jeff Francoeur	2009	25	304	0.250	0.282	0.352	0.102	0.634
Luis Rivas	2005	26	136	0.257	0.311	0.316	0.059	0.627
Omar Infante	2005	24	406	0.222	0.254	0.367	0.145	0.621
Jose Castillo	2007	26	221	0.244	0.270	0.335	0.091	0.604
Laynce Nix	2006	26	35	0.229	0.250	0.343	0.114	0.593
Felix Pie	2011	26	164	0.220	0.264	0.281	0.061	0.545

Some good players, but no great hitters. Here is how Moose's projection compares to some of the other (ex)Royals on the list:

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Mike Moustakas	2013	25	498	0.259	0.314	0.418	0.159	0.732
Alex Gordon	2008	24	450	0.262	0.332	0.429	0.167	0.761
John Buck	2006	26	406	0.254	0.305	0.421	0.168	0.726
Jeff Francoeur	2009	25	549	0.270	0.321	0.419	0.149	0.739
Jeff Francoeur	2010	26	535	0.273	0.319	0.419	0.146	0.738

It is not a good sign when Buck and Frenchy turn up as comps. At least there is some hope he can turn it around like Gordon did.

Alcides Escobar

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Alcides Escobar's Projection	2013	27	538	0.271	0.316	0.374	0.102	0.690
Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Jacoby Ellsbury	2011	28	660	0.321	0.376	0.552	0.230	0.928
Melky Cabrera	2011	27	658	0.306	0.339	0.470	0.164	0.809
Jack Wilson	2004	27	652	0.308	0.335	0.459	0.150	0.794
Endy Chavez	2006	28	353	0.306	0.348	0.431	0.125	0.779
Jerry Hairston	2004	28	287	0.303	0.378	0.397	0.094	0.775
Yadier Molina	2009	27	481	0.293	0.366	0.383	0.089	0.749
Erick Aybar	2011	27	556	0.279	0.322	0.421	0.142	0.743
Yadier Molina	2008	26	444	0.304	0.349	0.392	0.088	0.740
Jerry Hairston	2003	27	218	0.271	0.353	0.372	0.101	0.725
Alex Sanchez	2004	28	332	0.322	0.335	0.386	0.063	0.721
Yuniesky Betancourt	2010	28	556	0.259	0.288	0.405	0.146	0.692
Michael Bourn	2010	28	535	0.265	0.341	0.346	0.080	0.686
Kurt Suzuki	2011	28	460	0.237	0.301	0.385	0.148	0.686
Carlos Gomez	2011	26	231	0.225	0.276	0.403	0.178	0.679
Cesar Izturis	2006	26	119	0.252	0.302	0.353	0.101	0.655
Cesar Izturis	2007	27	191	0.246	0.298	0.304	0.058	0.601
Carlos Febles	2003	27	196	0.235	0.299	0.260	0.026	0.559
Endy Chavez	2005	27	107	0.215	0.243	0.299	0.084	0.542
Dioner Navarro	2010	26	124	0.194	0.270	0.258	0.065	0.528
Josh Barfield	2008	26	33	0.182	0.182	0.212	0.030	0.394

Again, some good and some bad. Are you catching on yet? Here are the projections for the ex-Royals

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Alcides Escobar	2013	27	538	0.271	0.316	0.374	0.102	0.690
Yuniesky Betancourt	2010	28	479	0.267	0.298	0.390	0.123	0.688
Carlos Febles	2003	27	382	0.251	0.329	0.364	0.113	0.693

Chris Getz

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Chris Getz's Projection	2013	30	312	0.260	0.315	0.340	0.080	0.654
Nyjer Morgan	2011	31	378	0.304	0.358	0.421	0.116	0.778
Nick Punto	2008	31	338	0.284	0.344	0.382	0.098	0.726
Jolbert Cabrera	2003	31	347	0.282	0.332	0.438	0.156	0.770
Willie Bloomquist	2008	31	165	0.279	0.377	0.285	0.006	0.662
Willie Bloomquist	2007	30	173	0.278	0.321	0.330	0.052	0.650
Cesar Izturis	2009	29	387	0.256	0.294	0.328	0.072	0.622
Brendan Ryan	2011	29	436	0.248	0.313	0.326	0.078	0.639
Abraham Nunez	2007	31	252	0.234	0.318	0.282	0.048	0.600
Cesar Izturis	2010	30	473	0.230	0.277	0.269	0.038	0.545
Ramon Vazquez	2006	30	67	0.209	0.267	0.284	0.075	0.550
Luis Rodriguez	2009	29	208	0.202	0.319	0.260	0.058	0.578
Willy Taveras	2010	29	35	0.200	0.243	0.257	0.057	0.500
Timo Perez	2006	31	31	0.194	0.286	0.323	0.129	0.608
Eric Bruntlett	2009	31	105	0.171	0.224	0.238	0.067	0.462

It is not a good sign when the best a person can hope from Chris Getz is Nick Punto. Now for the (ex)Royals:

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Chris Getz	2013	30	312	0.260	0.315	0.340	0.080	0.654
Willy Taveras	2010	29	427	0.260	0.312	0.326	0.066	0.637
Willie Bloomquist	2007	30	333	0.258	0.316	0.354	0.096	0.670
Willie Bloomquist	2008	31	291	0.265	0.323	0.357	0.093	0.680

Miguel Tejada

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Miguel Tejada's Projection	2013	39	217	0.254	0.299	0.369	0.115	0.668
Jay Payton	2010	38	35	0.343	0.361	0.514	0.171	0.875
Henry Blanco	2011	40	100	0.250	0.330	0.540	0.290	0.870
Sandy Alomar	2006	40	62	0.323	0.323	0.403	0.081	0.726
Geoff Blum	2011	38	49	0.225	0.309	0.408	0.184	0.717
Henry Blanco	2009	38	204	0.235	0.320	0.382	0.147	0.703
Brian Jordan	2006	39	91	0.231	0.287	0.352	0.121	0.639
Ivan Rodriguez	2011	40	124	0.218	0.282	0.323	0.105	0.604
Henry Blanco	2010	39	130	0.215	0.271	0.300	0.085	0.571
Jose Vizcaino	2006	38	119	0.210	0.304	0.261	0.050	0.564
Lenny Harris	2004	40	95	0.211	0.232	0.295	0.084	0.527
Lenny Harris	2003	39	131	0.183	0.255	0.229	0.046	0.484
Mike Mordecai	2005	38	2	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

What an ugly list, at least he will likely out produce Chris Getz. Sorry, no comps.

Johnny Giavotella

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Johnny Giavotella's Projection	2013	26	292	0.253	0.299	0.373	0.120	0.673
Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Chris Magruder	2003	26	26	0.346	0.433	0.615	0.269	1.049
Luis Matos	2003	25	439	0.303	0.353	0.458	0.155	0.811
Todd Linden	2006	26	77	0.273	0.356	0.455	0.182	0.811
Robert Andino	2010	26	61	0.295	0.333	0.459	0.164	0.792
Brandon Phillips	2006	25	536	0.276	0.324	0.427	0.151	0.751
Brian Roberts	2003	26	460	0.270	0.337	0.367	0.098	0.704
Andy Marte	2009	26	155	0.232	0.293	0.400	0.168	0.693
Jeremy Reed	2008	27	286	0.269	0.314	0.360	0.091	0.674
Robert Andino	2011	27	457	0.263	0.327	0.344	0.081	0.670
Roger Bernadina	2011	27	309	0.243	0.302	0.363	0.120	0.664
Dee Brown	2004	26	195	0.251	0.293	0.349	0.097	0.642
Dee Brown	2003	25	132	0.227	0.280	0.326	0.099	0.606
Brandon Fahey	2008	27	106	0.226	0.252	0.349	0.123	0.601
Ray Olmedo	2006	25	44	0.205	0.271	0.318	0.114	0.589
Alberto Gonzalez	2010	27	186	0.247	0.277	0.301	0.054	0.578
Rob Johnson	2010	27	178	0.191	0.293	0.281	0.090	0.574
Michael Saunders	2011	25	161	0.149	0.207	0.217	0.068	0.424
Andres Torres	2004	26	0					0.000

It is not really a great list of players, but there is hope, unlike Getz and Tejada. Brandon Phillips and Brian Roberts both were late blooming middle infielders. Here is how their projections compared:

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Johnny Giavotella	2013	26	292	0.253	0.299	0.373	0.120	0.673
Brandon Phillips	2006	25	190	0.237	0.291	0.363	0.126	0.655
Brian Roberts	2003	26	273	0.256	0.316	0.374	0.117	0.689

With Getz, we are hoping for Nick Punto, with Gia, it is Phillips. I think the chose for the Royals is pretty simple. I am fairly confident they will mess it up.

Salvador Perez

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Salvador Perez's Projection	2013	23	342	0.304	0.344	0.477	0.173	0.821
Hanley Ramirez	2007	24	639	0.332	0.386	0.562	0.230	0.948
Grady Sizemore	2006	24	655	0.290	0.375	0.533	0.243	0.908
Robinson Cano	2006	24	482	0.342	0.365	0.525	0.183	0.890
Billy Butler	2010	24	595	0.318	0.388	0.469	0.151	0.857
Nick Markakis	2007	24	637	0.300	0.363	0.485	0.185	0.848
Jorge Cantu	2005	23	598	0.286	0.311	0.497	0.211	0.808
Matt Kemp	2008	24	606	0.290	0.340	0.459	0.168	0.799
Ryan Zimmerman	2008	24	428	0.283	0.333	0.442	0.159	0.774
Buster Posey	2011	24	162	0.284	0.368	0.389	0.105	0.757
Troy Tulowitzki	2008	24	377	0.263	0.332	0.401	0.138	0.732

Now, that list rules. If the worst case is Posey and Tulowitzki, sign me up. For comps, a young Billy Butler shows up.

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Salvador Perez	2013	23	342	0.304	0.344	0.477	0.173	0.821
Billy Butler	2010	24	530	0.296	0.356	0.466	0.170	0.822

George Kottaras

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
George Kottaras' Projection	2013	30	274	0.234	0.327	0.427	0.193	0.754
Ricky Ledee	2004	31	123	0.285	0.393	0.512	0.228	0.905
Ramon Castro	2007	31	144	0.285	0.331	0.556	0.271	0.887
Marcus Thames	2006	29	348	0.256	0.333	0.549	0.293	0.882
Jonny Gomes	2009	29	281	0.267	0.338	0.541	0.274	0.879
John Buck	2010	30	409	0.281	0.314	0.489	0.208	0.803
Chris Snyder	2010	29	195	0.231	0.352	0.426	0.195	0.778
Greg Norton	2003	31	179	0.263	0.325	0.447	0.184	0.772
Dan Johnson	2010	31	111	0.198	0.343	0.414	0.216	0.757
Dave Ross	2008	31	134	0.231	0.381	0.366	0.134	0.747
Bobby Estalella	2004	30	14	0.143	0.143	0.571	0.429	0.714
Ramon Castro	2006	30	126	0.238	0.322	0.389	0.151	0.711
Bobby Estalella	2003	29	140	0.200	0.295	0.400	0.200	0.695
Gabe Gross	2009	30	282	0.227	0.326	0.355	0.128	0.681
Eric Munson	2007	30	132	0.235	0.313	0.356	0.121	0.669
Eric Munson	2006	29	141	0.199	0.269	0.348	0.149	0.617
Jeff Liefer	2003	29	88	0.193	0.217	0.330	0.136	0.547

Welcome back to reality after looking at the Perez comps. Not much excitement here with an old John Buck showing up.

Name	Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
George Kottaras	2013	30	274	0.234	0.327	0.427	0.193	0.754
John Buck	2010	30	305	0.236	0.310	0.413	0.177	0.723