Simple Math

Having dropped five of their last seven games, the Kansas City Royals wake up this morning to find themselves mired 8 1/2 games behind Detroit for the A.L. Central lead and, more importantly, 6 games back of a Wild Card berth. In the race to catch either Tampa or Oakland, the Royals are tied with the Yankees and behind both Cleveland and Baltimore.

A fan post by loyal2dad looked at this very subject on Saturday night and Farmhand wrote one a while back that I am too lazy to link. Since none of us around here have had an actual pennant race to discuss (however tenuous the Royals' position in it may be) since 2003, why not yet another column on the same?

Cool Standings project both Texas and Oakland to win 92 games, while they have Tampa winning 91. They expect the Royals to clock in with 85 wins - which, by the way, was my preseason projection so it must be right. Fangraphs has the Rangers, A's and Rays all winning 91 games and the Royals just 83. Make what you want of any sort of projection system, but if you want to realistically discuss the Royals making the playoffs, the conversation has to begin with the Royals finishing up 27-12 to reach 91 wins.

As loyal2sdad pointed out in his post, the schedule does provide Kansas City some favors. Among the wild card contenders, only Cleveland plays fewer games against teams with winning records down the stretch than the Royals. Of those teams, only Baltimore currently has a winning overall record against teams with winning records:

• Baltimore 37-31
• New York 38-39
• Oakland 28-30
• Kansas City 33-37
• Tampa 33-39
• Cleveland 29-41

As pointed out in the Fanpost, he's saying there's a chance.

The Royals remaining schedule and the run differentials with those teams:

• Chicago (7 games): -1
• Washington (3 games): have not played
• Minnesota (3 games): +33
• Toronto (3 games): -4
• Seattle (7 games): have not played
• Detroit (6 games): 0
• Cleveland (6 games): -13
• Texas (3 games): -4
• Tampa (1 game): +21