Statistically Ranking 2013 Royal Prospects

I know I should be covering some aspect of the heated wild card chase, but I can't today. Just thinking of Ned's stupidity last night just spins me up. So today I am going off subject and will talk prospects.

Today, I am going to look at the 2013 stats from some Royal "prospects". Usually, this subject is well covered this time of year with the Royals well out of playoff contention. Also, the number of prospects looking to help the parent club are pretty slim so less words have been written. This lack of depth can be seen by the work of fellow FanGraphs writer, Carson Cistulli. He has been looking at the prospects on the fringe of making MLB contributions. Out the 50 players examined, zero Royals have been chosen. I will see if I can find some on the fringe today. The following is a statistical look at which players may eventually be able to help the major league club.

A little on how I got the data. I used the FanGraphs database to look up the data. Its league designations are a little vague. Rookie (R) can be either short season ball in the U.S. or Dominican Summer League. I had to just group each together. For each league, I put used the league average age as the max allowed age. Here are the maximum ages I used for each league:

AAA: 25
AA: 24
A+: 23
A: 22
R: 22 (a little high, but wanted to included all college draft picks)

Finally, I used 2 metrics for hitters and 1 for pitchers. For hitters (min. 100 PA) I used XBH+(BB-IBB)-K (adjusted to a 100 scale) and wRC+. The first metric looks at some of the raw skills of the player, plate discipline and power. I have heard and read it, or some similar version, used as one of the better statistical ways to project future player talent. Also wRC+ is a really good stat because it takes all the player's hitting attributes and adjusts them to park and league factors. It really helps to eliminate the noise. I like to use them both, so I averaged them together to get an overall value.

For pitchers (min. 30 IP), I keep it simple, K% - BB%. That's it. Way too much noise otherwise.

Remember that these stats are just part of the equation, scouting and development is huge in the minors for future success. A pitcher will need multiple decent pitches to be a starter. A hitter may only be able to hit fastballs and breaking stuff destroys him. Also for hitters, their position and defense batter a ton. Raul Mondesi's value would be much less if he was going to be stuck at 1B instead of a middle infield position.

So here are the top 10 hitters and pitchers (full lists at the end of the article)

Pitchers

Hitters

Some names I expected, others I didn't. First thought, Dozier walks way too much for this organization. Second, the pitching depth is much deeper than the hitters. I could see none of the hitters contributing at all at the MLB level in 2014 while several pitchers could help immediately. After looking over the lists, I decided to see if I could find any additional information on some of the more interesting players.

Sparkman, Glenn - Wharton County JC (TX) - RHP 20th round in 2013

The Warton County website has no information on him, not even the 2013 stats. He has saved a couple of games for Idaho Falls with a 1.72 ERA and .955 WHIP.

I did find this information from a local source:

Sparkman has signed with Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi and plans to transfer there in the fall. With a fastball that has been clocked in the mid-90s this season, Sparkman has a good chance at being selected in the upcoming Major League Baseball amateur draft in early June.

"Glenn had a great year at Wharton as a starter and has really caught the attention of several scouts in the area," stated Koch. "Since he threw so many innings during the spring, we'll most likely use him out of the bullpen as our closer to keep his workload down this summer."

Buddy Baumann - Missouri State - 7th round in 2009. - LHP at 5'10"

He has slowly worked his way through the system. Greg Schaum had a interview with him a couple of years ago where he goes over his pitches.

5th inning- Give me a scouting report on yourself...pitches, velocity, make up

I am definitely not the typical professional pitcher since I stand 5'10″ but that helps with the way I throw. I'm a low 3 1/4 slot with a quick arm(at least that's what I hear). I have long arms and I hide the ball well which helps with deception. I throw three pitches. I have a Fastball, change up and slider. My Fastball will range from 88 to 95(on a good day). My change is high 70s with drop and my slider is low 80s. My fastball is my bread and butter. It jumps on people and because my height and slot I can get a lot of swings up in the zone, and I'm able to pitch inside effectively. I live for the competition. I'm fiery at times but I've learned how to channel it and use it to my advantage.

Truthfully, he looks to be blocked by the loaded MLB bullpen. He  could step in for All-Star Aaron Crow if needed.

Lane Adams - 13th round (2009) draft.- OF - RH

Lane's notoriety at Royals Review was making Will's non-hyped prospect series. Since then, he has begun to turn it around. Baseball America thinks so much of him, they put an article about him behind a pay wall. Not much else is has been written about him, but that may change this fall. He has been selected to compete in the Arizona Fall League and will get semi-regular time against some of the better prospects in the league. I think it is time for him to make himself known and lose the non-prospect label.

Rey Navarro - 3rd round (2007) by the Diamondbacks. Switch hitting MI.

He looks to be stuck in the ever spinning pile of baby poo which is the Royals 2B position. Here is comparison of how he has done in AA compared to the other possible 2B:

Name(Age): AVG/OBP/SLG, PAs
Navarro (23): .268/.312/.369, 1139
Colon (24): .268/.339/.360, 883
Giavotella (26): .322/.395/.460, 418

Navarro will probably never get a fair shake with the Royals since he was not a 1st round pick, but I see him moving on to another team and putting up a Mark Ellis type career.

Full lists

Pitchers

Hitters