Oakland Signs Butler to 3 Year, $30M deal; Royals Wisely Pass

Rumors of Billy Butler and Oakland in a tryst began to swirl late afternoon yesterday and then late last night finally the bell tolled on the rumors...wedding bells that is.

The reports were just speculation but now the agreement between Oakland and Butler is essentially all but done pending an official announcement from the A's which expected to be out any time soon (if not already released). The agreed upon terms seem to be 3 years and $30M with a $5M signing bonus so essentially 3/$35M. That's a really good haul for Butler as he enters what's likely the beginning of his decline phase.

On first glance, and maybe even second and third, this seems like an overpay for Oakland. Butler is just a month removed from having the worst season of his career. One that was worth negative value (-0.3) yet he's found a home for the next three years at a nice price. I'm not a contract history buff, but this might be the first time a player received a 3 year guaranteed deal after coming off a below replacement level season. Not only is he being given three years, but he's being guaranteed $10M a season in that span. That's too rich for my royal blue blood.

For 2015, Steamer projects Butler to rebound:

	PA	HR	BB%	K%	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	fWAR
2014	603	9	6.8%	15.9%	.310	.271	.323	.379	97	-0.3
2015	640	17	9.2%	16.6%	.312	.277	.347	.426	117	1.5

I think that's a reasonable line, and if you think Fangraphs penalizes a DH too harshly then there's some upward room there too. Last year was one of Butlers lowest walk rates and power outputs. Also Butler saw a bad deviation in many of his plate discipline metrics.

	O-Swing	Z-Swing	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%	F-Strike%	SwStr%
2012	29.90%	59.80%	43.60%	71.10%	89.40%	82.60%	45.60%	55.80%	7.40%
2013	29.20%	62.30%	43.60%	72.70%	90.90%	84.00%	43.70%	54.80%	6.70%
2014	34.10%	64.80%	48.30%	69.30%	90.50%	82.50%	46.40%	62.40%	8.30%

That rebound as projected by Steamer isn't unreasonable, and Butler has historically been a good hitter (career 17% above average batting line) so there's a reasonable expectation he can return somewhat back to his career numbers. That would be a good Butler, but good Butler likely isn't worth $10M a year going forward.

First, Butler will be 29 next season and Oakland will own the rights to him through his age 31 season. Second, Butler has been a below average player on an annual basis from 2012-2014 (1.3 fWAR). That's obviously weighed down by his 2014 season, but an argument can be made that the most recent season should receive the heaviest weight. Using 2011-2013 Butler has been a roughly league average player (1.9 fWAR) but that also includes his career best season.

Below are players who from 2012-2014 put up similar wins above replacement values as Butler:

Player	fWAR	2014 Age
Josh Willingham	4.5	35
Marco Scutaro	4.4	38
Everth Cabrera	4.4	27
Trevor Plouffe	4.3	28
Drew Stubbs	4.2	29
Billy Buter	4.1	28
Wilin Rosario	4.0	25
Nick Markakis	4.0	30
Mark Ellis	4.0	37

Willingham just retired, Marco Scutaro is probably going to retire, Plouffe just came off a career year (3.5 fWAR), Stubbs had one of his best seasons, Rosario is a catcher, Markakis is in free agency and is likely to sign for multiple years, Mark Ellis might retire, and Cabrera is a shortstop. Not many of those profiles are similar to Butler as all of them provide defensive value or are at least not full time designated hitters like Butler.

We can narrow this down a little more. First we'll look at Butlers age 26-28 seasons which is essentially 2012-2014. From there we'll set a general range to find similar players using BB%, K%, and ISO.

Name	G	HR	BB%	K%	ISO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	Def	WAR
Derek Jeter	455	54	9.4%	14.9%	0.145	0.315	0.388	0.460	126	-19.7	13.4
Pete Ward	366	36	9.3%	14.2%	0.140	0.256	0.328	0.396	107	36.1	9.5
Leo Cardenas	424	33	8.3%	15.8%	0.132	0.267	0.329	0.400	92	27.1	7.2
Brian Schneider	359	31	8.5%	14.6%	0.148	0.253	0.322	0.401	83	41.5	5.6
Randy Winn	331	21	8.9%	16.0%	0.136	0.283	0.353	0.418	105	-6.9	4.9
Billy Butler	474	53	8.9%	15.8%	0.144	0.292	0.358	0.436	119	-49.3	4.1
Joe Christopher	337	23	8.8%	14.3%	0.137	0.272	0.344	0.409	110	-35.5	1.6
Ronnie Belliard	321	22	8.3%	14.8%	0.136	0.255	0.322	0.392	80	1.9	0.9
J.T. Snow	359	49	8.5%	15.7%	0.147	0.264	0.331	0.411	89	-38.5	-1

The standout player there is obviously future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter. Besides #r2spect, the rest of the list compromised of a range of players covering a range of positions. Of note, Butler is the only designated hitter on the list, and alongside J.T. Snow is the only non 1B/DH offense first position player. On the other hand though is that Butler might be the best hitter on that list (other than Jeter) and all of his value has come through his bat.

So how about designated hitters with a wRC+ between 110 and 120 in their age 26-28 seasons:

Name	PA	HR	BB%	K%	ISO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
Harold Baines	1865	63	6.80%	13.90%	0.170	0.300	0.346	0.470	115	7.2
Dave Nilsson	1492	49	10.40%	13.70%	0.177	0.294	0.368	0.471	113	4.9
Lamar Johnson	1478	38	7.30%	10.50%	0.144	0.294	0.345	0.437	114	4.4
Billy Butler	1950	53	8.90%	15.80%	0.144	0.292	0.358	0.436	119	4.1
Brad Fullmer	1287	46	7.50%	12.70%	0.201	0.285	0.349	0.487	116	3.7
Tom Grieve	1284	43	6.00%	18.80%	0.166	0.261	0.308	0.428	111	3.4
Larry Sheets	1376	59	6.80%	14.20%	0.191	0.273	0.327	0.464	113	3.1
Jason Kubel	1677	69	9.50%	18.70%	0.205	0.274	0.342	0.479	116	2.6
Chris Carter	1157	66	10.90%	34.10%	0.246	0.225	0.314	0.471	118	2.1
Kevin Reimer	1098	38	7.70%	19.90%	0.185	0.267	0.334	0.452	118	1.4

That's a little more in Butler's range. By wRC+, Butler is the best hitter on the list and has one of the best walk rates among them. What Butler does lag behind the others in the group though is power. He's tied for last with Johnson in isolated slugging percentage, and 2nd to last in traditional slugging.

How did that group do in their age 29-31 seasons? Note that Carter has not played in his age 28 season yet.

Name	G	PA	HR	BB%	K%	ISO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
Harold Baines	439	1746	45	11.90%	15.30%	0.147	0.29	0.372	0.437	125	5.2
Dave Nilsson	115	404	21	13.10%	15.80%	0.245	0.309	0.4	0.554	137	2.9
Jason Kubel	337	1262	47	9.40%	26.10%	0.188	0.251	0.321	0.439	101	0.5
Lamar Johnson	293	1096	21	7.60%	9.80%	0.113	0.271	0.325	0.384	97	0.5
Brad Fullmer	76	290	11	9.30%	10.30%	0.209	0.233	0.31	0.442	86	-0.2
Kevin Reimer	125	477	13	6.30%	15.10%	0.144	0.249	0.303	0.394	83	-0.6
Tom Grieve	142	384	9	6.80%	21.10%	0.114	0.219	0.277	0.332	68	-1.3
Larry Sheets	233	728	17	6.90%	13.70%	0.13	0.253	0.306	0.383	90	-1.5

Baines would continue to be a good player and Nilsson would strangely retire from the MLB in his age 29 season after posting a 2.9 WAR. Everyone else on the list essentially ended up being at or below replacement level.

One interesting player I found compared to Butler is mentioned above in J.T. Snow. Through his age 28 season, Snow was a terrible player, compiling a -1.2 WAR over 2000 plate appearances, but posting similar walk, strikeout, and power numbers as Butler the same age span (24-28; 24 being Snow's debut age).

Name	G	PA	HR	BB%	K%	ISO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
Billy Butler	791	3301	87	9.40%	14.60%	0.151	0.297	0.365	0.448	122	8.1
J.T. Snow	495	2003	65	9.30%	16.40%	0.151	0.257	0.331	0.408	91	-1.2

Coming off one of his worst years and turning 29 (like Butler), Snow left his long time team (via trade rather than FA) and suddenly became a better player.

	G	PA	HR	BB%	K%	ISO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
24-28	495	2003	65	9.30%	16.40%	0.151	0.257	0.331	0.408	91	-1.2
29+	1221	4550	124	12.60%	17.90%	0.163	0.272	0.369	0.435	112	13.6

Maybe that's what happens to Butler. Now of course, Snow happened to be a Gold Glove first baseman for the Giants and not a full time DH.

Ultimately looking forward, Butler goes from a slightly above neutral offensive home park to a decidedly below neutral, pitchers park. The difference for a right handed batter though between Kauffman and The Coliseum is essentially nothing so while the overall factors may be lower in Oakland, that suppression leans on lefties more than righties. For his career at Oakland, Butler has amassed a line of .252/.354/.405 with 3 home runs in 130 plate appearances, good for an 89 tOPS+. Although now he will have a chance to hit more regularly in Angel Stadium where he has a career 131 tOPS+.

For $30M over 3 years, the A's need Butler to be essentially worth 4 or so wins in that span to break even or average 1.3 wins a season. Of course, the point of contracts isn't necessarily to break even but instead create surplus value. Giving Butler $10M a year is demanding him to be worth at least ~1.3 wins a year. If you believe Butler can achieve success above that, a feat he has done twice in his career, then the deal could look good. Otherwise if you think Butlers formidable years are behind him, then Oakland is likely to lose value on this deal and they are locked into it for the next 3 years. Perhaps they look to trade him at the deadline?

To me, this is basically all downside risk with this deal. Oakland is paying Butler basically for his projected worth, and maybe he beats the projections, but his skill set and body type likely bet against that and his power has declined two years in a row.

$10M for the next three years to a designated hitter coming off a below replacement level is a strong move, and I for one am glad it was a move another team made rather than the Royals.

For now at least, we say goodbye to Country Breakfast. A truly all time Royal favorite and possible great. Maybe we'll see you in another life, when we are all cats.

O farewell,
Farewell the neighing steed, and the shrill trump,
The spirit-stirring drum, th' ear-piercing fife;
The royal banner, and all quality,
Pride, pomp, and circumstance of glorious war!
And O you mortal engines, whose rude throats
Th' immortal Jove's dread clamors counterfeit,
Farewell! Butlers occupation's gone.