For the second time in just about two years, former Minor League Player of the Year and elite level prospect Wil Myers has been traded and will join the Padres, his third organization in that span.
It seems like the pieces are basically all together and pending the passing of a Wil Myers physical (specifically the medicals on his wrist) the deal has been completed. This is one of the biggest moves of the offseason, and certainly at least the most complicated. Here are the pieces involved (reportedly) and the teams acquiring them:
|Rays Receive||Nationals Receive||Padres Receive|
|OF Steven Souza (WAS)||SS Trea Turner (SD)||OF Wil Myers (TB)|
|C Rene Rivera (SD)||RHP Joe Ross (SD)||C Ryan Hanigan (TB)|
|LHP Travis Ott (WAS)||LHP Jose Castillo (TB)|
|RHP Burch Smith (SD)||RHP Gerardo Reyes (TB)|
|1B Jake Bauers (SD)|
A lot of moving parts there, and rumor has it there's a contingency plan in place if Myers was unable to pass his physical. Another interesting piece is that Trea Turner can't actually be traded until a year after signing his pro contract (June 13th), but as the player to be named later he must be traded within 6 months. Turner will play in the Padres minor league system until June 13th then will report to the Nationals designated affiliate.
I do miss Wil Myers even though I was somewhat low on his overall profile for the past few years. He's still a valuable asset to have and the Royals just spent $10M on an older and projected to be worse player in the same position. Myers still has five years of team control remaining and won't be a free agent until he's 28. While his potential status has slightly been lowered due to the plate discipline profile and lack of power (even with his injury into consideration), there's a very good likelihood that Myers is an at least average player for his remaining team controlled years, and two more years at the league minimum.
Let's pretend that Rios was never signed, and Dayton called newly appointed GM of the Rays Matt Silverman to ask about Myers. Given the players above, what would it take the Royals to re-acquire Myers? In this scenario we don't have to put ourselves into the shoes of the Nationals because obviously they didn't acquire Myers.
Obviously the most similar player to Turner is Raul Mondesi. Both are thinner framed short stops with plus-speed. Neither have impact level power, but Mondesi provides slightly more than Turner (who would likely grade out at 40 raw power). Mondesi is the much better fielder by far though (Turner converted from 3B to SS in college), and likely will have the better hit tool eventually than Turner given his excellent contact skills.
Mondesi is the better prospect of the two, and I'm not sure it's even close. The floor on Turner might be a little higher given his age and college experience, but Mondesi has a 60+ grade glove at SS to carry him if the bat doesn't ever truly emerge.
My closest comp would be Miguel Almonte perhaps. Like Ross, Almonte could range anywhere from a #3 starter to a bullpen arm on some night. Both feature excellent fastballs that can sit 93-95 and a solid second pitch (changeup for Almonte, Slider for Ross) but need work on their third pitch (curveball for Almonte, changeup for Ross). Both also wobble with command at times which further makes them enigmatic.
Much like Mondesi, Almonte is a better prospect than his proposed counterpart so the comparables are loose.
Likely a Sam Selman like comparison to Smith. Both feature below average control overall with the repertoire of a back end of the rotation starter on good days, but the control profile lowers them to a relief role to help the stuff play up in short outings.
A combination of Ryan O'Hearn and Cheslor Cuthbert is in the ballpark. Bauers and O'Hearn share a similar physicality and both are average defenders at first base with the off chance they could play some passable outfield years. O'Hearn has better raw and in game power, but Bauers hit tool helps offset the smaller amount of power. That's where Cuthbert comes in as well. Cheslor is a fringy defender even at first base, and like Bauers doesn't offer the typical power you see featured at first. Both have an advanced approach at the plate and should feature average hit tools eventually if not higher, but power for both will likely not be enough for first base when it comes to home runs, but a sizeable amount of doubles instead.
Rivera isn't a prospect but he's still an important piece. Rivera just came off a 3-win season propelled from excellent hitting and defense from behind the dish, but he's also 31 years old and hasn't had a season even near his 2014 in his career.
Sal Perez pops into your mind, but remove him immediately. Perez is much younger, better and signed to a ridiculous contract. Clearly the Royals don't have a comparable to Rivera so you'll have to suspend your disbelief momentarily.
Again, the comparables aren't exact 1 for 1 pieces and you'd have to give the overall profiles some leeway.
So let's re-imagine the trade:
|Rays Receive||Nationals Receive||Royals Receive|
|OF Steven Souza (WAS)||SS Raul Mondesi (KC)||OF Wil Myers (TB)|
|C Rene Rivera (KC)||RHP Miguel Almonte (KC)||C Ryan Hanigan (TB)|
|LHP Travis Ott (WAS)||LHP Jose Castillo (TB)|
|RHP Sam Selman (KC)||RHP Gerardo Reyes (TB)|
|1B O'Hearn / Cuthbert (KC)|
The Royals would be losing their #1 prospect (Mondesi - per BA), #6 prospect (Almonte), a fringe top-10 candidate (Cuthbert), and #13-#20 level guys in O'Hearn and Selman. Also of course they would hypothetically include Rivera who projects to be worth about 2-wins in 2015.
Would you trade the above package for Myers? Poll included!!!