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When the first sentence of your argument includes "just hear me out" it probably means it isn't a great argument. Having said that, just hear me out: Will Middlebrooks.
With the Red Sox acquiring both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, they have no room for Middlebrooks at third base. Meanwhile, a move to the outfield is out of the question for him as well given their depth there. That means he's either having to move to first base and somehow try to find at-bats along side Mike Napoli and Allen Craig (which also isn't happening) or he'll be in a different uniform come April.
Middlebrooks was once a fairly high regarded prospect. He's a true third baseman with a strong arm and good range which allowed the bat some room to grow and improve. He has above-average bat speed which coupled with his size brought above-average power to the plate. The concerns with him were inability to make contact and plate discipline.
That's one thing I want to address with Middlebrooks: plate discipline. I often see him pegged as an aggressive hitter who is swing-happy, but I don't know if I buy that truly.
Below you'll find the plate discipline figures for hitters from 2010-2014 with a minimum of 850 PA (minimum number to include Middlebrooks) with similar plate discipline profiles as Middlebrooks:
| Name | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% | K% |
| Ryan Ludwick | 31.90% | 73.20% | 50.60% | 59.70% | 83.20% | 75.10% | 45.40% | 61.60% | 12.20% | 21.90% |
| Curtis Granderson | 27.20% | 63.40% | 42.30% | 59.90% | 85.40% | 75.90% | 41.80% | 55.70% | 10.00% | 24.60% |
| Marlon Byrd | 39.30% | 72.50% | 54.60% | 59.90% | 86.60% | 76.20% | 46.10% | 65.90% | 12.70% | 21.60% |
| Carlos Gomez | 38.40% | 76.20% | 55.20% | 60.10% | 84.40% | 75.00% | 44.50% | 66.80% | 13.40% | 23.00% |
| Lucas Duda | 27.00% | 61.30% | 40.70% | 60.10% | 86.10% | 75.80% | 40.00% | 55.30% | 9.60% | 23.20% |
| Nelson Cruz | 31.10% | 71.10% | 49.60% | 60.30% | 81.30% | 74.20% | 46.20% | 59.00% | 12.50% | 21.40% |
| Jason Bay | 26.20% | 60.90% | 42.30% | 60.80% | 82.00% | 75.00% | 46.50% | 58.00% | 10.30% | 23.50% |
| Average of the group | 31.59% | 68.37% | 47.90% | 60.11% | 84.14% | 75.31% | 44.36% | 60.33% | 11.53% | 22.74% |
| MLB Average | 30.60% | 65.06% | 46.18% | 66.76% | 87.50% | 80.00% | 45.26% | 59.78% | 8.98% | 19.44% |
| Will Middlebrooks | 29.80% | 62.50% | 44.80% | 60.80% | 83.30% | 75.20% | 46.10% | 59.30% | 10.90% | 26.60% |
Things to notice:
- Middlebrooks O-Swing% is about 1% below the MLB average from 2010-2014 and 2% below the group
- His Z-Swing% is well below average and even more so the group
- His Swing% is well below average and even more so the group
- His O-Contact% is well below the MLB average and slightly better than the group
- His Z-Contact% is well below the MLB average and worse than the group
- His contact% is well below the MLB average and near the group
- His SwingStrk% is above the MLB average but below the group
- His K% is well above the MLB average and the group
So it looks like Middlebrooks isn't a free swinger as maybe his reputation would display, but perhaps his high K% is due to him not swinging as he's getting an above average amount of pitches in the zone, but swings at a well below average amount of zone pitches.
Now, the main sort criteria by the above group was Contact%. So anybody who wasn't near (~1%) Middlebrooks in Contact% was automatically eliminated.
Looking at the data again, let's try using Swing% as the sort criteria, so we'll narrow it to players with a similar Swing% as Middlebrooks then eliminate others from there.
| Name | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% | K% |
| Franklin Gutierrez | 30.80% | 61.30% | 45.10% | 63.40% | 85.10% | 77.20% | 46.80% | 56.60% | 9.90% | 20.70% |
| Trevor Plouffe | 29.20% | 61.80% | 44.40% | 66.10% | 87.10% | 79.80% | 46.80% | 62.70% | 8.90% | 20.60% |
| Paul Konerko | 28.70% | 61.90% | 44.20% | 66.30% | 89.10% | 81.20% | 46.70% | 58.20% | 8.00% | 15.60% |
| Welington Castillo | 29.80% | 61.90% | 45.00% | 57.70% | 89.10% | 78.10% | 47.30% | 58.00% | 9.70% | 24.40% |
| Alex Rios | 30.90% | 61.90% | 45.50% | 72.50% | 92.70% | 85.40% | 47.10% | 57.60% | 6.50% | 15.10% |
| Billy Butler | 29.70% | 62.20% | 44.40% | 71.10% | 89.90% | 83.00% | 45.30% | 56.30% | 7.30% | 14.60% |
| Placido Polanco | 28.90% | 62.20% | 45.20% | 83.50% | 95.70% | 91.70% | 48.90% | 58.70% | 3.60% | 7.90% |
| Peter Bourjos | 30.00% | 62.40% | 45.40% | 57.30% | 87.10% | 76.70% | 47.40% | 64.50% | 10.30% | 23.00% |
| Angel Pagan | 29.90% | 62.60% | 44.50% | 79.40% | 93.90% | 88.50% | 44.50% | 57.20% | 5.00% | 13.60% |
| Andres Torres | 29.80% | 63.40% | 44.40% | 64.20% | 87.80% | 78.80% | 43.50% | 58.10% | 9.20% | 22.00% |
| Cody Ross | 30.00% | 63.40% | 45.30% | 68.40% | 85.90% | 79.60% | 45.80% | 58.70% | 9.00% | 20.70% |
| John Mayberry | 29.70% | 63.50% | 45.10% | 62.00% | 85.70% | 77.20% | 45.50% | 58.30% | 10.10% | 22.00% |
| Average of the group | 29.78% | 62.38% | 44.88% | 67.66% | 89.09% | 81.43% | 46.30% | 58.74% | 8.13% | 18.35% |
| MLB average | 30.60% | 65.06% | 46.18% | 66.76% | 87.50% | 80.00% | 45.26% | 59.78% | 8.98% | 19.44% |
| Will Middlebrooks | 29.80% | 62.50% | 44.80% | 60.80% | 83.30% | 75.20% | 46.10% | 59.30% | 10.90% | 26.60% |
Things to notice:
- Middlebrooks O-Swing% is about 1% below the MLB average from 2010-2014 and average to the group
- His Z-Swing% is well below average and slightly above the group
- His Swing% is well below average and average to the group
- His O-Contact% is well below the MLB average and well below the group
- His Z-Contact% is well below the MLB average and even worse than the group
- His contact% is well below the MLB average and even worse than the group
- His SwingStrk% is above the MLB average and the group
- His K% is well above the MLB average and even more so the group
| O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% | K% | |
| MLB average | 30.60% | 65.06% | 46.18% | 66.76% | 87.50% | 80.00% | 45.26% | 59.78% | 8.98% | 19.44% |
| Will Middlebrooks | 29.80% | 62.50% | 44.80% | 60.80% | 83.30% | 75.20% | 46.10% | 59.30% | 10.90% | 26.60% |
| Difference from average | -0.80% | -2.56% | -1.38% | -5.96% | -4.20% | -4.80% | 0.84% | -0.48% | 1.92% | 7.16% |
How about looking at BB%?
| Name | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | K% | BB% |
| Howie Kendrick | 35.00% | 64.70% | 49.20% | 66.40% | 89.20% | 80.70% | 17.40% | 5.30% |
| Chris Heisey | 34.30% | 71.10% | 51.70% | 62.70% | 81.90% | 75.20% | 22.80% | 5.30% |
| Dayan Viciedo | 39.20% | 70.60% | 52.50% | 66.30% | 83.30% | 76.00% | 21.60% | 5.30% |
| Eduardo Nunez | 35.40% | 62.90% | 48.10% | 78.40% | 92.60% | 87.00% | 12.80% | 5.40% |
| Josh Rutledge | 32.70% | 65.10% | 48.20% | 61.50% | 89.30% | 79.40% | 21.00% | 5.40% |
| Carl Crawford | 36.10% | 71.20% | 51.70% | 74.80% | 88.90% | 83.40% | 16.20% | 5.40% |
| Wilson Valdez | 37.80% | 67.20% | 52.00% | 70.40% | 93.10% | 84.60% | 13.80% | 5.40% |
| Danny Valencia | 30.50% | 58.10% | 43.50% | 63.80% | 88.20% | 79.20% | 18.20% | 5.50% |
| Darwin Barney | 31.80% | 61.70% | 46.70% | 83.60% | 93.70% | 90.20% | 11.40% | 5.50% |
| Daniel Murphy | 32.70% | 66.10% | 47.20% | 80.30% | 93.90% | 88.60% | 12.80% | 5.50% |
| Matt Adams | 38.70% | 66.80% | 49.90% | 66.40% | 89.30% | 78.60% | 22.40% | 5.50% |
| Average of the group | 34.93% | 65.95% | 49.15% | 70.42% | 89.40% | 82.08% | 17.31% | 5.41% |
| Will Middlebrooks | 29.80% | 62.50% | 44.80% | 60.80% | 83.30% | 75.20% | 26.60% | 5.40% |
Middlebrooks career averages aren't even close to the group averages. His plate discipline profile is confusing to be honest and I'm not sure what to make of it. I don't believe that he is as free swinging as his reputation has been believed to be but instead his issue has been making contact when he does swing. Perhaps even given his Z-Swing% he isn't swinging enough.
For 2015, Steamer600 does believe that Middlebrooks K% will drop by almost 4% from 2014, but not due to an increase in walks.
| Name | PA | AB | 2B | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | WAR |
| Will Middlebrooks | 600 | 553 | 26 | 22 | 5.7% | 25.2% | 0.248 | 0.295 | 0.420 | 97 | 1.9 |
| PA | wRC+ | |
| 2012 | 90 | 140 |
| 2013 | 110 | 111 |
| 2014 | 57 | 18 |