Relegation/promotion is a feature of European soccer/football leagues, but has never taken hold in the US. In a recent discussion, I commented on how amusing it would be to demote the perpetually struggling Royals and let their successful Omaha AAA affiliate take a crack at MLB. This got me thinking, what would MLB look like any given year if a relegation system were in place?
Using data from Baseball Reference, I set up the following grid, deciding that the easiest way to model MLB relegation would be to annually drop the worst team from each league and replace them with the best team from the two AAA leagues (PCL & IL). I didn't try to model what would happen each subsequent year, just treated the seasons as stand-alone events, all that was practical for this level of fun. Below, you see the relegated teams & their records, along with the AAA league champions that would have replaced them that year. Because this is a Royals blog, I also included a column showing where the Royals finished in the AL each year. I started in 1985 because I had to start somewhere, it was a reasonably stretch of time, and again this is a Royals blog.
year |
NL |
AL |
Royals |
IL |
PCL |
2013 |
MIA 62-100 |
HOU 51-111 |
86-76, 7th |
Durham |
Omaha |
2012 |
HOU 55-107 |
MIN 66-96 |
72-90, 11th |
Pawtucket |
Reno |
2011 |
HOU 56-106 |
MIN 63-99 |
71-91, 11th |
Columbus |
Omaha |
2010 |
PIT 57-105 |
SEA 61-101 |
67-95, 12th |
Columbus |
Tacoma |
2009 |
WSN 59-103 |
BAL 64-98 |
65-97, 12th |
Durham |
Memphis |
2008 |
WSN 59-102 |
SEA 61-101 |
75-87, 11th |
SWB |
Sacramento |
2007 |
PIT 68-94 |
TBD 66-96 |
69-93, 13th |
Richmond |
Sacramento |
2006 |
CHC 66-96 |
TBD 61-101 |
62-100, 13th |
Toledo |
Tucson |
2005 |
PIT 67-95 |
KCR 56-106 |
relegated |
Toledo |
Nashville |
2004 |
ARI 51-111 |
KCR 58-104 |
relegated |
Buffalo |
Sacramento |
2003 |
SDP 64-98 |
DET 43-119 |
83-79, 8th |
Durham |
Sacramento |
2002 |
MIL 56-106 |
TBD 55-106 |
62-100, 12th |
Durham |
Edmonton |
2001 |
PIT 62-100 |
TBD 62-100 |
65-97, 12th |
Louisville |
? |
2000 |
CHC 65-97 |
MIN 69-93 |
77-85, 10th |
Indianapolis |
Memphis |
1999 |
FLA 64-98 |
MIN 63-97 |
64-97, 13th |
Charlotte |
Vancouver |
1998 |
FLA 54-108 |
TBD 63-99 |
72-89, 11th |
Buffalo |
New Oreans |
1997 |
PHI 68-94 |
OAK 65-97 |
67-94, 13th |
Rochester |
Edmonton |
1996 |
PHI 67-95 |
DET 53-109 |
75-86, 11th |
Columbus |
Edmonton |
1995* |
PIT 58-86 |
MIN 56-88 |
70-74, 8th |
Ottawa |
Colorado Springs |
1994* |
SDP 47-70 |
CAL 47-68 |
64-51, 4th |
Richmond |
Albuquerque |
1993 |
NYM 59-103 |
OAK 68-94 |
84-78, 7th |
Charlotte |
Tucson |
1992 |
LAD 63-99 |
SEA 64-98 |
72-90, 12th |
Columbus |
Col Springs |
1991 |
HOU 65-97 |
CLE 57-105 |
82-80, 10th |
Columbus |
Tucson |
1990 |
ATL 65-97 |
NYY 67-95 |
75-86, 11th |
Rochester |
Albuquerque |
1989 |
ATL 63-97 |
DET 59-103 |
92-70, 2nd |
Richmond |
Vancouver |
1988 |
ATL 54-106 |
BAL 54-107 |
84-77, 8th |
Rochester |
Las Vegas |
1987 |
SDP 65-97 |
CLE 61-101 |
83-79, 6th |
Columbus |
Albuquerque |
1986 |
PIT 64-98 |
SEA 67-95 |
76-86, 10th |
Richmond |
Las Vegas |
1985 |
PIT 57-104 |
CLE 60-102 |
91-71, 3rd |
Tidewater |
Vancouver |
Surprisingly, the Royals would only have been relegated twice, in 2004 & 2005. They just missed it four more times (1997, 1999, 2006, 2007). But look at all those 10th, 11th, and 12th place finishes. The Royals since 1985 have basically proved the Office Space theorem: they've been just good enough not to be relegated.
Other items of interest that I noted: Houston gets the award as the only team to be demoted from both leagues, Minnesota leads the AL (5), and Pittsburgh leads the NL (6), at least going back to the arbitrary 1985 endpoint.
Discussion questions:
1) In reality, relegation would play higgledy-piggledy with MLB's minor-league affiliate system and the draft. What do you do with draft picks? Does the 2nd-worst team now get the 1st pick? Does the newly promoted MLB team get it? Who becomes whose farm team?
2) Geography also becomes a mess. Where do you slot the new teams in? It wouldn't have been so hard in 2013, slotting Omaha in for Houston and Durham in for Miami, but have fun replacing the Phillies or Tigers with Edmonton after 1996. It gets harder after 1994, when MLB moved to three divisions. What's the worst replacement combination you can see?
3) How many relegated teams have since made the playoffs (but not the Royals)?
4) Which promoted teams would have had the best or worst chance of staying in MLB? Which MLB teams would never have made it back?
5) Determining AAA promotions, it would be more European to use best end-of-season record rather than playoff champion. I did it the latter way to save time. If someone wants to put together the comparative list of the former, go for it.
6) In 1988, Baltimore would have switched places with its AAA affiliate in Rochester, which I noticed because I grew up in WNY following the Red Wings. Are there other cases where an MLB team would have been replaced by its own affiliate?
Have some fun with this, it's fun to think about. And I fully expect some knowledgeable EPL fans to give us some team comparisons.