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Drafting is a fickle thing, and doubly so in baseball. Unlike their other sport counterparts, baseball prospects don't immediately plug themselves into the majors save for a few rare exceptions. That's what makes baseball drafts so dang hard and the bust rate as equally dang high.
While "best player available" isn't an exclusive term for baseball, I personally think I hear it more in baseball than any other sports draft. Drafting for team need in the first is generally something that is discouraged and teams generally will take BPA on their respected draft boards. This can be seen as recently as the Cubs, an organization neck deep in hitting prospect and lacking high end pitching prospects, taking Kyle Schwarber, a hitter, with their first selection despite having a crack at basically any pitcher available in the draft that wasn't named Carlos Rodon, Brady Aiken, or Tyler Kolek.
Draft rankings are a fickle thing as well. Not only with the MLB teams, but with the major media pundits. Of all those pundits though, Baseball America is probably the most in depth of them. While this doesn't mean they are the best or most accurate, it does mean that they are the most public and readily available, and for the purpose of this exercise that is indeed a good thing.
So let's do this guys. Let's pretend the Royals took the BPA in every draft. That could be cool, fun, exciting, or perhaps boring if you don't care. If you do in fact don't care then I advise you stop reading right here. Thanks for your time.
Okay are you still reading? Cool. Thanks. I can't guarantee you this will be cool, fun, or exciting, but hey you've come this far right?
Ground rules:
BPA will be based off of Baseball America's pre-draft board. I will do my best to find the most recent one I can find as of that year in case they updated it throughout the spring.
We will go back five players on the BA list for each spot
We'll assume every team takes the BPA available on the list unless the BPA in the five listed spots was actually taken.
Note: I wanted it to be truly the BPA but I lazily didn't want to cross off every pick for two rounds and compare it to the BA list. This way is the best mix of true BPA and BPA according to the list I can think of. I'm sure the initial idea would be more accurate, but if you want to write that article then I'll take credit for the idea and I'll front page it.
This strategy probably won't change the results too much in reality. The biggest effect it will have is on high school guys with signing bonus demands I'd imagine.
BPA will be the immediately best available player still available.
We will select the Royals first two picks
We will select two BPA's at each spot: a hitter and a pitcher. Why? Because I can.
We're just going to assume the Royals have/had the money to sign all these guys.
Any player who didn't actually sign with a club is skipped
Clear on the ground rules? Okay. Let's go.
2014
Royals picks:
#17 and #28
BA #17-21
17 Kyle Schwarber C/OF - gone
18 Brandon Finnegan LHP - available
19 Sean Reid-Foley RHP - available
20 Monte Harrison OF - available
21 Jacob Gatewood - available
Royals selection: Brandon Finnegan
BPA selection: Pitcher - Brandon Finnegan LHP Hitter - Monte Harrison OF
#28-32
28 Luis Ortiz RHP - available
29 Casey Gillaspie 1B - gone
30 Alex Blandino 3B - available
31 Derek Fisher OF - available
32 Kodi Medeiros LHP - gone
Royals selection- Foster Griffin LHP
BPA selection: Pitcher - Luis Ortiz RHP Hitter - Alex Blandino 3B
2013
Royals Picks:
#8 and #34
BA #8-12
8 Braden Shipley RHP available
9 Trey Ball LHP - gone
10 Reese McGuire C - available
11 Hunter Renfroe C - available
12 D.J. Peterson 3B - available
Royals selection: Hunter Dozier SS/3B
BPA selection: Pitcher - Braden Shipley RHP Hitter - Reese McGuire C
BA #34-38
34 Connor Jones RHP - available
35 Kyle Serrano RHP - available
36 Bobby Wahl RHP - available
37 Ryan Eades RHP - available
38 Oscar Mercado SS - available
Royals selection: Sean Manaea LHP
BPA selection: Pitcher - Connor Jones RHP Hitter - Oscar Mercado SS
2012
Royals picks:
#5 and #66
BA #5-12 (extended because we needed a hitter)
5 Kevin Gausman RHP - gone
6 Carlos Correa SS - gone
7 Albert Almora OF - gone
8 Michael Wacha RHP - available
9 Lucas Giolito RHP - available
10 Marcus Stroman RHP - available
11 Max Fried LHP - available
12 David Dahl OF - available
Royals selected: Kyle Zimmer RHP
BPA selected: Pitcher - Michael Wacha RHP Hitter - David Dahl OF
BA #66-70
66 Steve Bean C - gone
67 Kevin Plawecki C - gone
68 Travis Jankowski OF - gone
69 Peter O'Brien C - available
70 C.J. Hinojosa SS - available
71 Jesmuel Valentin 2B - gone
72 Alec Rash RHP - skipped
73 James Kaprielian RHP - skipped
74 Derick Velasquez - skipped
75 Edwin Diaz RHP - available
Royals selected: Sam Selman LHP
BPA selected: Pitcher - Edwin Diaz RHP Hitter - Peter O'Brien C
2011
Royals picks:
#5 and #65
BA #5-9
5 Trevor Bauer RHP - gone
6 Bubba Starling OF - available
7 Francisco Lindor SS - available
8 Taylor Jungmann RHP - available
9 Archie Bradley RHP - available
Royals selected: Bubba Starling OF
BPA selected: Pitcher - Taylor Jungmann RHP Hitter - Bubba Starling OF
BA #65-72 (extended because we needed a hitter)
65 Brandon Martin SS - gone
66 Derek Fisher OF - skipped
67 Joe Panik 2B - gone
68 Brad Miller SS - gone
69 Adam Conley LHP - available
70 Andrew Gagnon RHP
71 Jace Peterson SS - gone
72 Tyler Marlette C - available
Royals selected: Cam Gallagher C
BPA selected: Pitcher - Adam Conley LHP Hitter - Tyler Marlette C
2010
Royals picks:
#4 and #54
BA #4-8
4 Drew Pomeranz LHP - available
5 Chris Sale LHP - available
6 Zack Cox 3B - available
7 Deck McGuire RHP - available
8 Stetson Allie RHP - available
Royals selected: Christian Colon SS
BPA selected: Pitcher - Drew Pomeranz LHP Hitter - Zack Cox 3B
BA #54-60 (extended because we needed a hitter)
54 Jason Adam RHP - available
55 Delino DeShields Jr OF - gone
56 Cam Bedrosian RHP - gone
57 Chance Ruffin, RHP - gone
58 Robbie Aviles RHP - available
59 Aaron Sanchez RHP - gone
60 Micah Gibbs C - available
Royals selected: Jason Adam RHP
BPA selected: Pitcher - Jason Adam RHP Hitter - Micah Gibbs C
2009
Royals picks:
#12 and #91
BA #12-17 (extended because we needed a pitcher)
12 Zack Wheeler RHP - gone
13 Grant Green SS - available
14 Mike Leake RHP - gone
15 Tim Wheeler OF - available
16 Bobby Borchering 3B - available
17 Rex Brothers LHP - available
Royals selected: Aaron Crow - RHP
BPA selected: Pitcher - Rex Brothers LHP Hitter - Grant Green SS
BA #91-96 (extended because we needed a hitter)
91 Jeff Kobernus 2B - gone
92 Kendal Volz RHP - available
93 Bryan Berglund RHP - gone
94 Matt den Dekker OF - skipped
95 J.R. Murphy C - gone
96 Luke Bailey C - available
Royals selected: Wil Myers C
BPA selected: Pitcher - Kendal Volz RHP Hitter - Luke Bailey C
2008
Royals picks:
#3 and #36
BA #3-7
3 Tim Beckham SS - gone
4 Buster Posey C - available
5 Aaron Crow RHP - available
6 Gordon Beckham SS - availble
7 Eric Hosmer 1B - available
Royals selected: Eric Hosmer 1B
BPA selected: Pitcher - Aaron Crow RHP Hitter - Buster Posey C
BA #36-40
36 Isaac Galloway OF - available
37 Brett Lawrie OF/IF - gone
38 Allan Dykstra 1B - gone
39 Wade Miley LHP - available
40 Mike Montgomery LHP - available
Royals selected: Mike Montgomery LHP
BPA selected: Pitcher - Wade Miley LHP Hitter - Isaac Galloway OF
2007
Royals picks:
#2 and #66
BA #2-6
2 Matt Wieters C - available
3 Josh Vitters 3B - available
4 Rick Porcello RHP - available
5 Mike Moustakas SS - available
6 Ross Detwiler LHP - available
Royals selected: Mike Moustakas SS
BPA selected: Pitcher - Rick Porcello RHP Hitter - Matt Wieters C
BA #66-72 (extended because we needed a hitter)
66 Kellen Kulbacki OF - gone
67 Kevin Patterson 1B/C - skipped
68 Scott Moviel RHP - available
69 Jordan Walden RHP - skipped
70 Sam Demel RHP - available
71 Neil Ramirez RHP - gone
72 Johnathan Lucroy C - available
Royals selected: Sam Runion RHP
BPA selected: Pitcher Scott Moviel RHP Hitter - Johnathan Lucroy C
2006
Royals picks:
#1 and #45
BA #1-5
1 Andrew Miller LHP - available
2 Tim Lincecum RHP - available
3 Brad Lincoln RHP - available
4 Evan Longoria 3B/2B - available
5 Greg Reynolds RHP - available
Royals selected: Luke Hochevar RHP
BPA selected: Pitcher - Andrew Miller LHP Hitter - Evan Longoria 3B/2B
BA #45-49
45 Kris Johnson LHP - gone
46 Chris Perez RHP - gone
47 Jason Place OF - gone
48 Dallas Buck RHP - available
49 Emmanuel Burriss SS - gone
50 Steven Wright RHP - available
51 Jared Mitchell OF - skipped
52 Wes Hodges 3B - available
Royals selected: Jason Taylor SS
BPA selected: Pitcher - Dallas Buck RHP Hitter - Wes Hodges 3B
2005
Royals Picks:
#2 and #50
BA #2-6
2 Alex Gordon 3B - available
3 Cameron Maybin OF - available
4 Troy Tulowitzki SS - available
5 Mike Pelfrey RHP - available
6 Luke Hochevar RHP - available
Royals selected: Alex Gordon 3B
BPA selected: Pitcher - Mike Pelfrey RHP Hitter - Alex Gordon 3B
BA #50-54
50 Sean O'Sullivan RHP - available
51 Clay Buchholz RHP - gone
52 Craig Italiano RHP - available
53 Brett Hayes C/OF - available
54 Josh Lindblom RHP - skipped
Royals selected: Jeff Bianchi SS
BPA selected: Pitcher - Sean O'Sullivan RHP Hitter - Brett Hayes C/OF
BPA Pitcher System:
Michael Wacha RHP
Aaron Crow RHP
Rick Porcello RHP
Wade Miley LHP
Drew Pomeranz LHP
Sean O'Sullivan RHP
Mike Pelfrey RHP
Dallas Buck RHP
Rex Brothers LHP
Jason Adam RHP
Andrew Miller LHP
Scott Moviel RHP
Taylor Jungmann RHP
Edwin Diaz RHP
Braden Shipley RHP
Luis Ortiz RHP
Brandon Finnegan LHP
Kendal Volz RHP
Adam Conley LHP
Connor Jones RHP
So the Royals still get Aaron Crow, Jason Adam, and Sean O'Sullivan (without having to trade for him).
The winners here are Michael Wacha and perhaps Rick Porcello.
BPA Hitter System:
Evan Longoria 3B/2B
Matt Wieters C
Alex Gordon 3B
Buster Posey C
Johnathan Lucroy CE
Brett Hayes C/OF
Luke Bailey C
Grant Green SS
Monte Harrison OF
Micah Gibbs C
Isaac Galloway OF
David Dahl OF
Oscar Mercado SS
Zack Cox 3B
Wes Hodges 3B
Tyler Marlette C
Alex Blandino 3B
Bubba Starling OF
Peter O'Brien C
Reese McGuire C
Royals still select Bubba Starling, Alex Gordon, and Brett Hayes.
Lot of winners here with Longoria, Posey, Weiters, Gordon and Lucroy.
True BPA Pool (first player available regardless of position):
Buster Posey C
Alex Gordon 3B
Matt Weiters C
Michael Wacha RHP
Drew Pomeranz LHP
Brandon Finnegan LHP
Luis Ortiz RHP
Braden Shipley RHP
Connor Jones RHP
Pete O'Brien C
Bubba Starling OF
Adam Conley LHP
Jason Adam RHP
Grant Green SS
Kendal Volz RHP
Isaac Galloway OF
Scott Moviel RHP
Andrew Miller LHP
Dallas Buck RHP
Sean O'Sullivan RHP
Royals still get Starling, O'Sullivan and Gordon.
Winners here are Posey, Weiters, and Wacha.