clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

A look at Fangraphs fan projections for the Royals

New, comments

Everyone will improve!

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

One week ago today, FanGraphs opened their annual fan projections. This allows fans of the game, specifically readers of FanGraphs, the ability to input and crowdsource their own projections for players. If I'm recalling studies correctly, it's been shown that fans are worse at projecting players from season to season than projection systems like ZiPS/Steamer/PECOTA etc... This is unsurprising because (a) they are cold calculating unflawed machines and (b) we are flawed humans.

One can question the models or outputs the machines produce, but one cannot question the calculation itself in terms of the math, data, and the end function of the data. The machine doesn't care if Eric Hosmer gave you a baseball at the home opener. It doesn't care that Christian Colon was drafted as having a high floor. It doesn't care that Lorenzo Cain hit that grand slam on July 4th that year more than it was just one more home run, four more RBI, and one more run scored. This is where that cold, often ruthless, and specific calculation comes from.

On the other side there is us. Flawed, deeply, humans with incredible amounts of room for error. We have hearts that doom us and eyes that deceive us. According to Tyler Drenon Durden there's the distinct possibility that God doesn't even like us. The machines are objective, while we are subjective.

Now the 2015 projections are still in their relative infancy and could change over the next few weeks slightly. But the 2014 data is easily accessible from the archives (if something just one year old is considered the "archives") thanks to the glories of the internet.

Name G HR SB wOBA FLD WAR
Alex Gordon 155 18 13 .357 10 4.8
Salvador Perez 132 15 0 .344 6 4.7
Eric Hosmer 156 22 15 .358 1 3.5
Lorenzo Cain 123 8 16 .317 13 3.3
Mike Moustakas 134 16 4 .319 6 2.6
Alex Rios 148 17 35 .329 4 2.4
Alcides Escobar 147 5 26 .284 9 2.3
Omar Infante 132 9 7 .310 3 2.1
Jarrod Dyson 85 1 25 .291 6 1.4
Kendrys Morales 134 20 0 .336 -2 1.0

Now, the 2015 (so far) fan projections:

Name G HR SB wOBA Fld WAR
Alex Gordon 156 19 14 .348 15 5.2
Eric Hosmer 151 19 10 .347 1 3.1
Salvador Perez 142 17 1 .326 7 4.6
Lorenzo Cain 137 7 26 .320 15 4.6
Kendrys Morales 134 15 0 .315 -1 0.3
Alex Rios 130 9 14 .307 -2 0.8
Mike Moustakas 137 16 2 .305 4 2.0
Omar Infante 125 7 8 .297 0 1.2
Alcides Escobar 156 3 26 .295 6 3.0
Jarrod Dyson 109 1 36 .293 13 2.7

Finally, the change between the 2014 fan projections and the 2015 projections with bold font for increases and italicized font for decreases:

Name G HR SB wOBA Fld WAR
Alex Gordon +1 +1 +1 -0.010 +6 +0.5
Salvador Perez +10 +2 +1 -0.018 +1 -0.1
Lorenzo Cain +14 -1 +10 +0.003 +2 +1.3
Eric Hosmer -5 -3 -5 -0.011 -0 -0.4
Alcides Escobar +9 -2 0 +0.011 -3 +0.7
Jarrod Dyson +24 0 +11 +0.002 +7 +1.3
Mike Moustakas +3 0 -2 -0.014 -2 -0.6
Omar Infante -7 -2 +1 -0.013 -3 -0.9
Alex Rios -18 -8 -21 -0.022 -6 -1.6
Kendrys Morales 0 -5 0 -0.023 +1 -0.8

Everybody will improve (in at least one category...except Eric Hosmer)!

Some thoughts:

Looks like the fans are getting on board the Ned Yost catcher use train. Perez is projected to play 10 more extra games over last year. For instance, Steamer projects Perez at 114 games played which is a paltry amount compared to the fan projection.

Hey look! There's Jarrod Dyson with a good bump in games played which comes with an increased win-value

Looks like the fans watched Lorenzo Cain during the playoffs and have bought into him more with a more than one-win upgrade.

Alex Rios...yeesh.