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This will be part 2 in this series, I may or may not continue writing these depending how useful we find them.
You can find the first part here
A couple notes on my methodology.....
Traded players contracts were not counted against signing team (only the years on the original signing team), with the exception of mid season trades. In that case, all performance and salary were counted toward the team that originally signed the player.
Option years are not counted, I did not think picked up option showed a GM's FA signing talent.
I did not isolate any GM's signing intentionally (except for DM) It was important to me to just look at yearly signing and compare teams and GM's that way.
So for this article, I thought it would be interesting to see how the Royals stack up against our division rivals and a few other franchises with good reputations and/or good results. So I added in the Giants, A's, Rays and Cardinals.
If anybody has another team they would like added I can run numbers perhaps in the comments or post another article.
Ok, so here we go........
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| MLB WAR/$ | $ 5,415,000.00 | $ 5,415,001.00 | $ 5,970,037.00 | $ 6,268,539.00 | $ 6,581,966.00 | $ 6,911,064.00 | $ 7,256,617.00 | $ 7,619,448.00 | $ 8,000,421.00 |
| White Sox WAR/$ | $ (6,875,000.00) | $ 6,411,764.71 | $ 7,500,000.14 | $ 2,219,387.76 | $ 9,843,750.00 | $ 5,405,405.41 | $ (33,818,181.82) | $ (10,870,370.37) | $ 60,000,000.00 |
| Difference | $ (12,290,000.00) | $ (996,763.71) | $ (1,529,963.14) | $ 4,049,151.24 | $ (3,261,784.00) | $ 1,505,658.59 | $ (41,074,798.82) | $ (18,489,818.37) | $ (51,999,579.00) |
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| MLB WAR/$ | $ 5,415,000.00 | $ 5,415,001.00 | $ 5,970,037.00 | $ 6,268,539.00 | $ 6,581,966.00 | $ 6,911,064.00 | $ 7,256,617.00 | $ 7,619,448.00 | $ 8,000,421.00 |
| Twins WAR/$ | $ (36,750,000.00) | $ (11,300,000.00) | $ 3,391,304.35 | $ 1,549,180.33 | $ 8,750,000.00 | $ 5,663,793.10 | $ 16,071,428.57 | $ 5,821,428.57 | $ 15,500,000.00 |
| Difference | $ (42,165,000.00) | $ (16,715,001.00) | $ 2,578,732.65 | $ 4,719,358.67 | $ (2,168,034.00) | $ 1,247,270.90 | $ (8,814,811.57) | $ 1,798,019.43 | $ (7,499,579.00) |
Cleveland
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| MLB WAR/$ | $ 5,415,000.00 | $ 5,415,001.00 | $ 5,970,037.00 | $ 6,268,539.00 | $ 6,581,966.00 | $ 6,911,064.00 | $ 7,256,617.00 | $ 7,619,448.00 | $ 8,000,421.00 |
| Indians WAR/$ | $ (9,352,941.18) | $ (13,437,500.00) | $ 46,250,000.00 | $ 5,326,923.08 | $ (1,769,230.77) | $ (8,888,888.89) | $ 7,560,975.61 | $ (77,000,000.00) | $ (48,750,000.00) |
| Difference | $ (14,767,941.18) | $ (18,852,501.00) | $ (40,279,963.00) | $ 941,615.92 | $ (8,351,196.77) | $ (15,799,952.89) | $ (304,358.61) | $ (84,619,448.00) | $ (56,750,421.00) |
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| MLB WAR/$ | $ 5,415,000.00 | $ 5,415,001.00 | $ 5,970,037.00 | $ 6,268,539.00 | $ 6,581,966.00 | $ 6,911,064.00 | $ 7,256,617.00 | $ 7,619,448.00 | $ 8,000,421.00 |
| Tigers WAR/$ | $ (5,909,090.91) | $ 80,000,000.00 | $ 1,944,444.44 | $ 4,696,014.86 | $ 5,871,773.70 | $ 6,523,255.81 | $ 4,297,468.35 | $ 4,778,688.52 | $ (40,666,666.67) |
| Difference | $ (11,324,090.91) | $ (74,584,999.00) | $ 4,025,592.56 | $ 1,572,524.14 | $ 710,192.30 | $ 387,808.19 | $ 2,959,148.65 | $ 2,840,759.48 | $ (48,667,087.67) |
Tampa Bay
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| MLB WAR/$ | $ 5,415,000.00 | $ 5,415,001.00 | $ 5,970,037.00 | $ 6,268,539.00 | $ 6,581,966.00 | $ 6,911,064.00 | $ 7,256,617.00 | $ 7,619,448.00 | $ 8,000,421.00 |
| Ray's WAR/$ | $ 818,181.82 | $ 2,824,449.25 | $ 9,935,370.00 | $ (17,250,000.00) | $ 3,803,030.30 | $ 2,228,658.54 | $ 4,750,000.00 | $ (9,375,000.00) | $ 26,916,666.00 |
| Difference | $ 4,596,818.18 | $ 2,590,551.75 | $ (3,965,333.00) | $ (23,518,539.00) | $ 2,778,935.70 | $ 4,682,405.46 | $ 2,506,617.00 | $ (16,994,448.00) | $ (18,916,245.00) |
Cardinals
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| MLB WAR/$ | $ 5,415,000.00 | $ 5,415,001.00 | $ 5,970,037.00 | $ 6,268,539.00 | $ 6,581,966.00 | $ 6,911,064.00 | $ 7,256,617.00 | $ 7,619,448.00 | $ 8,000,421.00 |
| Card's WAR/$ | $ (37,062,500.00) | $ 4,159,574.47 | $ 7,125,000.00 | $ 6,954,021.90 | $ 5,440,140.00 | $ 4,022,887.32 | $ 8,076,923.08 | $ 5,029,069.77 | $ 13,666,666.67 |
| Difference | $ (42,477,500.00) | $ 1,255,426.53 | $ (1,154,963.00) | $ (685,482.90) | $ 1,141,826.00 | $ 2,888,176.68 | $ (820,306.08) | $ 2,590,378.23 | $ (5,666,245.67) |
Oakland
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| MLB WAR/$ | $ 5,415,000.00 | $ 5,415,001.00 | $ 5,970,037.00 | $ 6,268,539.00 | $ 6,581,966.00 | $ 6,911,064.00 | $ 7,256,617.00 | $ 7,619,448.00 | $ 8,000,421.00 |
| A's WAR/$ | $ 1,912,043.64 | $ (13,233,760.00) | $ 13,550,000.00 | $ 3,441,666.67 | $ 4,814,814.81 | $ 2,157,608.70 | $ 1,456,043.96 | $ 6,700,000.00 | $ 22,878,181.82 |
| Difference | $ 3,502,956.36 | $ (18,648,761.00) | $ (7,579,963.00) | $ 2,826,872.33 | $ 1,767,151.19 | $ 4,753,455.30 | $ 5,800,573.04 | $ 919,448.00 | $ (14,877,760.82) |
Giants
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| MLB WAR/$ | $ 5,415,000.00 | $ 5,415,001.00 | $ 5,970,037.00 | $ 6,268,539.00 | $ 6,581,966.00 | $ 6,911,064.00 | $ 7,256,617.00 | $ 7,619,448.00 | $ 8,000,421.00 |
| Giants WAR/$ | $ 7,982,352.94 | $ 11,651,162.79 | $ 326,750,000.00 | $ 7,572,289.16 | $ 80,857,142.86 | $ 36,307,692.31 | $ 33,012,820.77 | $ 10,361,635.28 | $ 119,041,665.00 |
| Difference | $ (2,567,352.94) | $ (6,236,161.79) | $ (320,779,963.00) | $ (1,303,750.16) | $ (74,275,176.86) | $ (29,396,628.31) | $ (25,756,203.77) | $ (2,742,187.28) | $ (111,041,244.00) |
Royals
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| MLB WAR/$ | $ 5,415,000.00 | $ 5,685,750.00 | $ 5,970,037.00 | $ 6,268,539.00 | $ 6,581,966.00 | $ 6,911,064.00 | $ 7,256,617.00 | $ 7,619,448.00 | $ 8,000,421.00 |
| Royals WAR/$ | $ 2,350,000.00 | $ 5,095,588.24 | $ 68,333,333.33 | $ 22,846,153.85 | $ 1,217,948.72 | $ 9,520,833.33 | $ 3,392,857.14 | $ 7,419,354.84 | $ 8,809,210.53 |
| Difference | $ 3,065,000.00 | $ 590,161.76 | $ (62,363,296.33) | $ (16,577,614.85) | $ 5,364,017.28 | $ (2,609,769.33) | $ 3,863,759.86 | $ 200,093.16 | $ (808,789.53) |
Takeaways
White Sox - They were doing decent, and then for some reason decided to throw a bunch of money at a bunch of old guys in 2011, by 2013 those chickens have come home to roost. Judging by their 2015 signings they have not learned from 2011 mistakes.
Twins - Seemed to be very good at finding some aging guys to give cheap contracts to. Got good value out of guys like Josh Willingham, but then turn around and give a 2-year contract to Mike Pelfrey after he just laid an egg.
Cleveland - one of the most snake bit teams I looked at. Their big contracts don't work out, their little ones don't. 1 positive year out of 9
Detroit - Dombrowski is a stud!!! His big contracts pay dividends. 2008 is a total anomaly due to 1 contract. It does appear to that things are beginning to come apart for Detroit last year. But even with that, they had 6 straight years of very good returns.
Tampa Bay -It appears as though they will indeed miss Friedman. I found only 2 contracts of 3 years and none any longer. they usually give 2 or 1-year deals. Their returns aren't always good, but they save a lot of heartache by not giving long contracts
Cardinals - Gave out a lot of crap contracts in 2007 but have righted the ship since then. They also seem to spend almost the same amount of money in FA every year. I wonder if that has anything to do with their success.
Oakland - I can almost write the same exact things about both Oakland and Tampa. No big contracts. Oakland has 1 3 year contract since 2007 (guess who) and that appears to have backfired. They sign lots of bargains. There must be something in the water over there. They take castoffs and somehow get good seasons when no one else could.
Giants - I am not sure there was a worse team than the Giants. They waste a lot of cash and just keep throwing it out there.
Conclusions - I am convinced now more than ever to not sign long term contracts with anyone older! The Royals were only clearly better than 2 teams. I suspect if I did this league wide the Royals would be below average from 2007 until now and likely average from 2011 until now. No team was without their warts, with that said you have to minimize chances of contracts becoming warts.
The smart money seems to look for 1 and 2-year reclamation projects.I saw lots of club options picked up with Tampa, Oakland, and Cardinals
