Before Thanksgiving, I began a quest to answer a question that to my knowledge has never been answered.
That question was simple "How does Dayton Moore compare when signing free agents?"
Many on this site have tried to answer that questions, but to my knowledge, no one has presented a complete comparative work on this subject.
We have had many works, some look at large contracts, some use projections, some cover a long history of GM's. I had yet to see any that looked at free agency, team by team, for only the years DM has been in control.
I have looked at over 900 FA contracts, took the time to meticulously chart and document each and every one. I believe I have around 40 hours total in this study. To which my wife says "who in the hell spends so much time putting numbers in excel over this many days"
What will be fun is now I have done all the leg work, I should be able to keep it up every year and do unrelated studies. Like answering questions about how longer contracts perform per year and WAR/$ using all free agents dollars.
In my previous 2 post, I attempted to show surplus and deficit value year by year, where I went wrong was multiplying that surplus or deficit by that actual WAR return, the problem was let's say you had 8 million in contracts handed out and only got .1 WAR in return, that would mean a team spent 80 million per war for that year. So the sample size of year to year contracts made the results flaky for certain teams.
In the comments, a commenter had a great idea on how to use the data. I want to make sure I give credit to this formula to Thayne_Griffin.
Thayne had a basic premise, what if we first calculated the expected WAR by the money spent and then subtract it from our actual WAR results.
For Example, if a team spent 14 million in FA dollars and $/WAR is 7 Million, then our expected return is 2 WAR
Now let's say those signed players actually performed at 1.5 WAR level then the result is -.5 WAR for that yer.
These numbers cover 2007 through 2015 FA signings for every team in baseball. I did not isolate any GM's although some may have been unintentional. This work is meant to isolate DM against the FA environment he operated in.
Here is the year by year breakdown for the Royals.
Here are the complete results of all 30 teams
|Team||Surplus Of War Purchased|
I will not give commentary on these numbers I will let them speak on their own.
I hope you guys enjoy this one, I really put a lot of time and effort into it.