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Royals vs. Reds, Game 40 GameThread

The Royals look to extend their lead over the Tigers and Twins. The Twins are hot on the Tigers' heels.

By Kevin Ruprecht
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

It seems like every week for the past three weeks or so it's been crap weather for the game I'm covering. It's May, yet the high is about 54 or 55 degrees with a little bit of wind. Lousy Smarch weather I guess. Or is the whole "Always October" thing actually being taken literally? Maybe it's because I'm wearing my grey Always October hoodie today? Grey is the color of the weather but not of the team.

Jeremy Guthrie takes the hill tonight for the Boys in Blue wrapped in a Blue Blanket covered by a Blue Hoodie. Guthrie has had a poor season so far, but his last two starts have been fairly adequate -- four runs over 12.1 innings. If that Guthrie shows up tonight, the Royals should be OK. Guthrie's velocity appears to be back (averaged 93.3mph on his four seamer his last start), so that's a good start.

Interestingly, Guthrie relied heavily on his four seamer in his previous two starts. He threw it over 60 percent of the time in each game. Guthrie has never thrown his four seamer more than 60 percent of the time two games in a row. The last time Guthrie threw it over 60 percent of the time was when he was wearing a Colorado uniform in 2012. What's also interesting is that his four seamer has probably been his best pitch this year; hitters have only a .239/.326 BA/SLG against it. I don't really know what to make of this. His line drives per ball in play rate on the four seamer has steadily risen each year beginning in 2012. Baseball!

Jason Marquis gets the start for the Reds. I don't know what's going on with him. He has literally both the highest strikeout rate and the lowest walk rate of his career right now. This is a guy who didn't pitch in the majors in 2014. Despite his late-career strikeout and walk "renaissance", Marquis has allowed dingers like whoa. Thus, his ERA and FIP are even worse than Guthrie's, but his xFIP is better by almost a full run. Baseball!

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